Soil Chemical Response to Experimental Acidification Treatments

One of the conclusions reached during the Congressionally mandated National Acid Precipitation Program (NAPAP) was that, compared to ozone and other stress factors, the direct effects of acidic deposition on forest health and productivity were likely to be relatively minor. However, the report also concluded “the possibility of long-term (several decades) adverse effects on some soils appears realistic” (Barnard et al. 1990). Possible mechanisms for these long-term effects include: (1) accelerated leaching of base cations from soils and foliage, (2) increased mobilization of aluminum (Al) and other metals such as manganese (Mn), (3) inhibition of soil biological processes, including organic matter decomposition, and (4) increased bioavailability of nitrogen (N).

Effects of Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition on the Herbaceous Layer of a Central Appalachian Hardwood Forest

Additions of nitrogen (N) have been shown to alter species diversity of plant communities, with most experimental studies having been carried out in communities dominated by herbaceous species. We examined seasonal and inter-annual patterns of change in the herbaceous layer of two watersheds of a central Appalachian hardwood forest that differed in experimental treatment. This study was carried out at the Fernow Experimental Forest, West Virginia, using two adjacent watersheds: WS4 (mature, second-growth hardwood stand, untreated reference), and WS3. Seven circular 0.04-ha sample plots were established in eachwatershed to represent its full range of elevation and slope aspect. The herbaceous layer was sampled by identifying and visually estimating cover (%) of all vascular plants. Sampling was carried out in mid-July of 1991 and repeated at approximately the same time in 1992. In 1994, these same plots were sampled each month fromMay to October. Seasonal patterns of herb layer dynamics were assessed for the complete 1994 data set, whereasinter-annual variability was based on plot data from 1991, 1992, and the July sample of 1994. There were nosignificant differences between watersheds for any sample year for any of the other herb layer characteristics measured, including herb layer cover, species richness, evenness, and diversity. Cover on WS4 decreased significantly from 1991 to 1992, followed by no change to 1994. By contrast, herb layer cover did not varysignificantly across years on WS3. Cover of the herbaceous layer of both watersheds increased from early in the growing season to the middle of the growing season, decreasing thereafter, with no significant differencesbetween WS3 and WS4 for any of the monthly cover means in 1994. Similar seasonal patterns found for herblayer cover—and lack of significant differences between watersheds—were also evident for species diversityand richness. By contrast, there was little seasonal change in herb layer species evenness, which was nearlyidentical between watersheds for all months except October. Seasonal patterns for individual species/speciesgroups were closely similar between watersheds, especially for Viola rotundifolia and Viola spp. Species richnessand species diversity were linearly related to herb layer cover for both WS3 and WS4, suggesting that spatialand temporal increases in cover were more related to recruitment of herb layer species than to growth of existingspecies. Results of this study indicate that there have been negligible responses of the herb layer to 6 yr of additions to WS3.

Bayesian Hierarchical Distributed Lag Models for Summer Ozone Exposure and Cardio-Respiratory Mortality

In this paper, we develop Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models for estimating associations between daily variations in summer ozone levels and daily variations in cardiovascular and respiratory (CVDRESP) mortality counts for 19 U.S. large cities included in the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) for the period 1987 - 1994. At the first stage, we define a semi-parametric distributed lag Poisson regression model to estimate city-specific relative rates of CVDRESP associated with short-term exposure to summer ozone. At the second stage, we specify a class of distributions for the true city-specific relative rates to estimate an overall effect by taking into account the variability within and across cities. We perform the calculations with respect to several random effects distributions (normal, t-student, and mixture of normal), thus relaxing the common assumption of a two-stage normal-normal hierarchical model. We assess the sensitivity of the results to: 1) lag structure for ozone exposure; 2) degree of adjustment for long-term trends; 3) inclusion of other pollutants in the model;4) heat waves; 5) random effects distributions; and 6) prior hyperparameters. On average across cities, we found that a 10ppb increase in summer ozone level for every day in the previous week is associated with 1.25 percent increase in CVDRESP mortality (95% posterior regions: 0.47, 2.03). The relative rate estimates are also positive and statistically significant at lags 0, 1, and 2. We found that associations between summer ozone and CVDRESP mortality are sensitive to the confounding adjustment for PM_10, but are robust to: 1) the adjustment for long-term trends, other gaseous pollutants (NO_2, SO_2, and CO); 2) the distributional assumptions at the second stage of the hierarchical model; and 3) the prior distributions on all unknown parameters. Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models and their application to the NMMAPS data allow us estimation of an acute health effect associated with exposure to ambient air pollution in the last few days on average across several locations. The application of these methods and the systematic assessment of the sensitivity of findings to model assumptions provide important epidemiological evidence for future air quality regulations.

Ozone and Mortality: A Meta-Analysis of Time-Series Studies and Comparison to a Multi-City Study (The National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study)

While many time-series studies of ozone and daily mortality identified positive associations,others yielded null or inconclusive results. We performed a meta-analysis of 144 effect estimates from 39 time-series studies, and estimated pooled effects by lags, age groups,cause-specific mortality, and concentration metrics. We compared results to estimates from the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS), a time-series study of 95 large U.S. cities from 1987 to 2000. Both meta-analysis and NMMAPS results provided strong evidence of a short-term association between ozone and mortality, with larger effects for cardiovascular and respiratory mortality, the elderly, and current day ozone exposure as compared to other single day lags. In both analyses, results were not sensitive to adjustment for particulate matter and model specifications. In the meta-analysis we found that a 10 ppb increase in daily ozone is associated with a 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.53, 1.12%) increase in total mortality, whereas the corresponding NMMAPS estimate is 0.25%(0.12, 0.39%). Meta-analysis results were consistently larger than those from NMMAPS,indicating publication bias. Additional publication bias is evident regarding the choice of lags in time-series studies, and the larger heterogeneity in posterior city-specific estimates in the meta-analysis, as compared with NMAMPS.