Seasonal Analyses of Air Pollution and Mortality in 100 U.S. Cities

Time series models relating short-term changes in air pollution levels to daily mortality counts typically assume that the effects of air pollution on the log relative rate of mortality do not vary with time. However, these short-term effects might plausibly vary by season. Changes in the sources of air pollution and meteorology can result in changes in characteristics of the air pollution mixture across seasons. The authors develop Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical models for estimating time-varying effects of pollution on mortality in multi-site time series studies. The methods are applied to the updated National Morbidity and Mortality Air Pollution Study database for the period 1987--2000, which includes data for 100 U.S. cities. At the national level, a 10 micro-gram/m3 increase in PM(10) at lag 1 is associated with a 0.15 (95% posterior interval: -0.08, 0.39),0.14 (-0.14, 0.42), 0.36 (0.11, 0.61), and 0.14 (-0.06, 0.34) percent increase in mortality for winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. An analysis by geographical regions finds a strong seasonal pattern in the northeast (with a peak in summer) and little seasonal variation in the southern regions of the country. These results provide useful information for understanding particle toxicity and guiding future analyses of particle constituent data.

Inferences regarding the diet of extinct hominins: structural and functional trends in dental and mandibular morphology within the hominin clade

This contribution investigates the evolution of diet in the Pan – Homo and hominin clades. It does this by focusing on 12 variables (nine dental and three mandibular) for which data are available about extant chimpanzees, modern humans and most extinct hominins. Previous analyses of this type have approached the interpretation of dental and gnathic function by focusing on the identification of the food consumed (i.e. fruits, leaves, etc.) rather than on the physical properties (i.e. hardness, toughness, etc.) of those foods, and they have not specifically addressed the role that the physical properties of foods play in determining dental adaptations. We take the available evidence for the 12 variables, and set out what the expression of each of those variables is in extant chimpanzees, the earliest hominins, archaic hominins, megadont archaic hominins, and an inclusive grouping made up of transitional hominins and pre-modern Homo . We then present hypotheses about what the states of these variables would be in the last common ancestor of the Pan – Homo clade and in the stem hominin. We review the physical properties of food and suggest how these physical properties can be used to investigate the functional morphology of the dentition. We show what aspects of anterior tooth morphology are critical for food preparation (e.g. peeling fruit) prior to its ingestion, which features of the postcanine dentition (e.g. overall and relative size of the crowns) are related to the reduction in the particle size of food, and how information about the macrostructure (e.g. enamel thickness) and microstructure (e.g. extent and location of enamel prism decussation) of the enamel cap might be used to make predictions about the types of foods consumed by extinct hominins. Specifically, we show how thick enamel can protect against the generation and propagation of cracks in the enamel that begin at the enamel– dentine junction and move towards the outer enamel surface.