Effects of experimental nitrogen additions on plant diversity in an old-growth tropical forest

Response of plant biodiversity to increased availability of nitrogen (N) has been investigated in temperate and boreal forests, which are typically N-limited, but little is known in tropical forests. We examined the effects of artificial N additions on plant diversity (species richness, density and cover) of the understory layer in an N saturated old-growth tropical forest in southern China to test the following hypothesis: N additions decrease plant diversity in N saturated tropical forests primarily from N-mediated changes in soil properties. Experimental additions of N were administered at the following levels from July 2003 to July 2008: no addition (Control); 50 kg N ha−1 yr−1 (Low-N); 100 kg N ha−1 yr−1 (Medium-N), and 150 kg N ha−1 yr−1 (High-N). Results showed that no understory species exhibited positive growth response to any level of N addition during the study period. Although low-to-medium levels of N addition (≤100 kg N ha−1 yr−1) generally did not alter plant diversity through time, high levels of N addition significantly reduced species diversity. This decrease was most closely related to declines within tree seedling and fern functional groups, as well as to significant increases in soil acidity and Al mobility, and decreases in Ca availability and fine-root biomass. This mechanism for loss of biodiversity provides sharp contrast to competition-based mechanisms suggested in studies of understory communities in other forests. Our results suggest that high-N additions can decrease plant diversity in tropical forests, but that this response may vary with rate of N addition.

TRENDS IN PARTICULATE MATTER AND MORTALITY: AN APPROACH TO THE ASSESSMENT OF UNMEASURED CONFOUNDING

We propose a method for diagnosing confounding bias under a model which links a spatially and temporally varying exposure and health outcome. We decompose the association into orthogonal components, corresponding to distinct spatial and temporal scales of variation. If the model fully controls for confounding, the exposure effect estimates should be equal at the different temporal and spatial scales. We show that the overall exposure effect estimate is a weighted average of the scale-specific exposure effect estimates. We use this approach to estimate the association between monthly averages of fine particles (PM2.5) over the preceding 12 months and monthly mortality rates in 113 U.S. counties from 2000-2002. We decompose the association between PM2.5 and mortality into two components: 1) the association between “national trends” in PM2.5 and mortality; and 2) the association between “local trends,” defined as county-specificdeviations from national trends. This second component provides evidence as to whether counties having steeper declines in PM2.5 also have steeper declines in mortality relative to their national trends. We find that the exposure effect estimates are different at these two spatio-temporalscales, which raises concerns about confounding bias. We believe that the association between trends in PM2.5 and mortality at the national scale is more likely to be confounded than is the association between trends in PM2.5 and mortality at the local scale. If the association at the national scale is set aside, there is little evidence of an association between 12-month exposure to PM2.5 and mortality.

ON THE MERITS OF VOXEL-BASED MORPHOMETRIC PATH-ANALYSIS FOR INVESTIGATING VOLUMETRIC MEDIATION OF A TOXICANT'S INFLUENCE ON COGNITIVE FUNCTION

We previously showed that lifetime cumulative lead dose, measured as lead concentration in the tibia bone by X-ray fluorescence, was associated with persistent and progressive declines in cognitive function and with decreases in MRI-based brain volumes in former lead workers. Moreover, larger region-specific brain volumes were associated with better cognitive function. These findings motivated us to explore a novel application of path analysis to evaluate effect mediation. Voxel-wise path analysis, at face value, represents the natural evolution of voxel-based morphometry methods to answer questions of mediation. Application of these methods to the former lead worker data demonstrated potential limitations in this approach where there was a tendency for results to be strongly biased towards the null hypothesis (lack of mediation). Moreover, a complimentary analysis using anatomically-derived regions of interest volumes yielded opposing results, suggesting evidence of mediation. Specifically, in the ROI-based approach, there was evidence that the association of tibia lead with function in three cognitive domains was mediated through the volumes of total brain, frontal gray matter, and/or possibly cingulate. A simulation study was conducted to investigate whether the voxel-wise results arose from an absence of localized mediation, or more subtle defects in the methodology. The simulation results showed the same null bias evidenced as seen in the lead workers data. Both the lead worker data results and the simulation study suggest that a null-bias in voxel-wise path analysis limits its inferential utility for producing confirmatory results.