Formation of Exchange Rates on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling

Galina Kovaleva. The Formation of the Exchange Rate on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling. The Russian financial market is fast becoming one of the major sectors of the Russian economy. Assets have been increasing steadily, while new market segments and new financial market instruments have emerged. Kovaleva attempted to isolate the factors influencing exchange rates, determine patterns in the dynamic changes to the rouble/dollar exchange rate, construct models of the processes, and on the basis of these activities make forecasts. She studied the significance of economic indicators influencing the rouble/dollar exchange rate at different times, and developed multi-factor econometric models. In order to reveal the inner structure of the financial indicators and to work out ex-post forecasts for different time intervals, she carried out a series of calculations with the aim of constructing trend-cyclical (TC) and harmonic models, and Box and Jenkins models. She found that: 1. The Russian financial market is dependant on the rouble/dollar exchange rate. Its dynamics are formed under the influence of the short-term state treasury notes and government bonds markets, interbank loans, the rouble/DM exchange rate, the inflation rate, and the DM/dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate is influenced by sales on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange and the mechanism of those sales. 2. The TC model makes it possible to conduct an in-depth study of the structure of the processes and to make forecasts of the dynamic changes to currency indicators. 3. The Russian market is increasingly influenced by the world currency market and its prospects are of crucial interest for the world financial community.

Talents in Migration Processes in the Conditions of the Czech Republic of the Nineties

The transformation of the 1990s has had a bearing on the academic and scientific world, as is becoming increasingly obvious with the changing numbers of foreign students wishing to study in the Czech Republic and of Czech students wishing to study abroad, the virtual collapse of doctoral studies, and the rapidly increasing age of Czech academics (placed at 48 by official sources and at rather more by this research). At the same time there is an apparent lack of interest in analysing and understanding these trends, which Mr. Cermak terms an ostrich policy, although his research showed that academics are in fact both aware and concerned about them. The mid-1990s migration of talent to and from R+D in the Czech Republic is also reflected in the number of talented Czech students studying abroad, who represent the largest and most interesting group of actual and potential migrants. Mr. Cermak's study took the form of a Delphi enquiry participated in by 44 specialists, including experts in the problems of higher education and science policy from the Presidium of the Higher Education Council (n = 23), members of the Council's Science and Research Commission (n = 14), former and current managers of higher education authorities (n = 4) and selected participants of the longitudinal talent research (n = 3). Questions considered included the influence of continuing talent migration from domestic R+D on the efficiency of domestic higher education, the diversification of forms of the brain drain and their impact on other processes in society, the possibility of positive influence on the brain drain processes to minimise the risks it presents, and the use of the knowledge obtained about the brain drain. The study revealed a clear drop of interest in brain drain problems in higher education in the mid-1990s, which is probably related to the collapsed of Czech R+D in the field of talent education. The effects on this segment of the labour market appeared earlier, with a major migration wave in 1991-1993 which significantly "cleared" the area of scientific talent. In addition, prospective talents from the ranks of younger students have not been integrated into domestic R+D, leading to the increasing average age of those working in this field. "Talent scouting" tended to be oriented towards much younger individuals, even in some cases towards undergraduate students. The R+D institutions deprived of human resources considered as basic in a functional R+D system have lost much of their dynamism and so no longer attract not only domestic talent but also talent from other regions. As a result the public, including the mass media and political structures, have stopped regarding the support of domestic science as a priority. This is clear both among the young people who are important for the future development of R+D (support for the education of talented children has dropped), from the drop in the prestige of this area as a profession among university students, and from the lack of explicit support for R+D by any of the political parties. On the basis of his findings Mr. Cermak concludes that there is no basis for the belief that the brain drain will represent a positive force in stimulating the development of the open society. Migration data shows that the outflow of talent from the Czech Republic far exceeds the inflow, and that the latter is largely short-term. Not only has the number of returning Czech professors dropped to half of its level at the beginning of the 1990s, but they also tend to take up only short-term contracts and retain their foreign positions. Recruitment of scientific talent from other countries, including the Slovak Republic, is limited. Furthermore internal contacts between those already involved in R+D have been badly hit by economic pressures and institutional co-operation has dropped to a minimum. There have been few moves to counteract this situation, the only notable one being the Program 250, launched in 1996 with government support to try and attract younger (i.e. under 40) talent into R+D. Its resources are however limited and its effects have not so far been evaluated. The deficit of academic and scientific talent in the Czech Republic is increasing and two major directions of academic work are emerging. Classic higher education science based on the teaching process is declining, largely due to economic factors, while there is an increasing emphasis on special; ad hoc projects which cannot be related directly to teaching but are often interesting to specialists outside the Czech Republic. This is shown clearly by the increase in publishing and in participation in domestic and foreign grant projects, which often serve to supplement the otherwise low salaries in the higher education sector. This tend was also accelerated by the collapse of applied R+D in individual sectors of the national economy and by substantial cutbacks in the Czech Academy of Sciences, which formerly fostered such research. Some part of the output of this research can be used in the education system and its financial contribution does significantly affect the stability of the present staff, but Mr. Cermak sees it as generally unfavourable for the development of talent education. In addition, it has led to a certain resignation on the question of integration into international structures, due to the emphasis on short-term targets, commercial advantages and individualism rather than team work. At the same time, he admits that these developments reflect those in other areas of the transformation in the Czech Republic.

The Social Desintegration of an Ethnical German Group from Romanian Village Community Comparative with a Romanian Group and Hungarian Group from some Village Their Integration into the German Society

Zarna is witness to the disappearance of the Swabian community in Santana, a process which seems to date back to before the major changes in Central and Eastern Europe. His project showed how a strong German ethnic community, formed more than 250 years ago, has virtually disappeared from the village of Santana (Romania). Zarna presents the causes leading to the loss of their ethnic identity, of their culture, traditions and of the collective reproduction of their ethnicity, although the last Swabians remaining in the village have preserved their individual identity and not let themselves be assimilated. The policy of the former communist regime is not sufficient to explain the decline of the German ethnic group, nor is the present international context with its varying effects on the form and reproduction of their ethnic identity. Zarna has analysed the origins of the Swabian community, its development, historical changes (both desired and imposed) and the disappearance of elements that determined their German culture and their pride in being German. The Germans have demobilised more rapidly than other ethnic groups in Romania, partly because of Germany's pro-emigration policy over the last two decades. Many of the emigrants were however, poorly prepared for emigration and have not been able to recreate the prosperous financial situation which they left. The prevalent feeling among those interviewed was disappointment and this increases with age and education.