Social Policy Facing the Problems of Youth Employment

Rumiana Stoilova (Bulgaria). Social Policy Facing the Problems of Youth Employment. Ms. Stoilova is a researcher in the Institute of Sociology in Sofia and worked on this project from October 1996 to September 1998. This project involved collecting both statistical and empirical data on the state of youth employment in Bulgaria, which was then compared with similar data from other European countries. One significant aspect was the parallel investigation of employment and unemployment, which took as a premise the continuity of professional experience where unemployment is just a temporary condition caused by external and internal factors. These need to be studied and changed on a systematic basis so as to create a more favourable market situation and to improve individuals' resources for improving their market opportunities. A second important aspect of the project was an analysis of the various entities active on the labour market, including government and private institutions, associations of unemployed persons, of employers or of trade unions, all with their specific legal powers and interests, and of the problems in communication between these. The major trends in youth unemployment during the period studied include a high proportion of the registered unemployed who are not eligible for social assistance, a lengthening of the average period of unemployment, an increase in the percentage of people who are unemployed for the first time and an increasing percentage of these who are not eligible for assistance, particularly among newly registered young people. At the same time the percentage of those for who work has been found is rising and during the last three years an increasing number of the unemployed have started some independent economic activity. Regional differences are also considerable and in the case of the Haskovo region represent a danger of losing the youngest generation, with resulting negative demographic effects. One major weakness of the existing institutional structure is the large scale of the black labour market, with clear negative implications for the young people drawn into it. The role of non-governmental organisations in providing support and information for the unemployed is growing and the government has recently introduced special preferences for organisations offering jobs to unemployed persons. Social policy in the labour market has however been largely restricted to passive measures, mostly because of the risk that poverty poses to people continuously excluded from the labour market. Among the active measures taken, well over half are concerned with providing jobs for the unemployed and there are very limited programmes for providing or improving qualifications. The nature of youth employment in Bulgaria can be seen in the influence of sustained structures (generation) and institutions (family and school). Ms. Stoilova studied the situation of the modern generation through a series of profiles, mostly those of continuously unemployed and self-employed persons, but also distinguishing between students and the unemployed, and between high school and university students. The different categories of young people were studied in separate mini-studies and the survey was carried out in five town in order to gather objective and subjective information on the state of the labour market in the different regions. She conducted interviews with several hundred young people covering questions of family background, career plans, attitudes to the labour situation and government measures to deal with it, and such questions as independence, mobility, attitude to work, etc. The interviews with young people unemployed for a long period of time show the risk involved in starting work and its link with dynamics of economic development. Their approval of structural reforms, of the financial restrictions connected with the introduction of a currency board and the inevitability of unemployment was largely declarative. The findings indicate that the continuously unemployed need practical knowledge and skills to "translate" the macroeconomic realities in concrete alternatives of individual work and initiative. The unemployed experience their exclusion from the labour market not only as a professional problem but also as an existential threat, of poverty, forced mobility and dependence on their parents' generation. The exclusion from the market of goods and services means more than just exercising restraint in their consumption, as it places restrictions on their personal development. Ms. Stoilova suggests that more efficient ways of providing financial aid and mobilisation are needed to counteract the social disintegration and marginalisation of the continuously unemployed. In measuring the speed of reform, university students took both employment opportunities and the implementation of the meritocratic principle in employment into account. When offered a hypothetical choice between a well-paid job and work in one's own profession, 62% would prefer opt for the well-paid job and for working for a company that offered career opportunities rather than employment in a family or own company. While most see the information gained during their studies as useful and interesting, relatively few see their education as competitive on a wider level and many were pessimistic about employment opportunities based on their qualifications. Very similar attitudes were found among high school students, with differences being due rather to family and personal situations. The unemployed, on the other hand, placed greater emphasis on possibilities of gaining or improving qualifications on a job and for the opportunities it would offer for personal contacts. High school students tend to attribute more significance to opportunities for personal accomplishment. A significant difference that five times fewer high school students were willing to work for state-owned companies, and many fewer expected to find permanent employment or to find a job in the area where they lived, Within the family situation, actual support for children seems to be higher than the feelings of confidence expressed in interviews. The attitudes of the families towards past experience seems to be linked with their ability to cope with the difficulties of the present, with those families which show an optimistic and active attitude towards the future having a greater respect for parents experience and tolerance in communication between parents and children.

A Sociological Study of the Political Subsystem in Yugoslavia

In this critical analysis of sociological studies of the political subsystem in Yugoslavia since the fall of communism Mr. Ilic examined the work of the majority of leading researchers of politics in the country between 1990 and 1996. Where the question of continuity was important, he also looked at previous research by the writers in question. His aim was to demonstrate the overall extent of existing research and at the same time to identify its limits and the social conditions which defined it. Particular areas examined included the problems of defining basic concepts and selecting the theoretically most relevant indicators; the sources of data including the types of authentic materials exploited; problems of research work (contacts, field control, etc.); problems of analysisl and finally the problems arising from different relations with the people who commission the research. In the first stage of the research, looking at methods of defining key terms, special attention was paid to the analysis of the most frequently used terms such as democracy, totalitarianism, the political left and right, and populism. Numerous weaknesses were noted in the analytic application of these terms. In studies of the possibilities of creating a democratic political system in Serbia and its possible forms (democracy of the majority or consensual democracy), the profound social division of Serbian society was neglected. The left-right distinction tends to be identified with the government-opposition relation, in the way of practical politics. The idea of populism was used to pass responsibility for the policy of war from the manipulator to the manipulated, while the concept of totalitarianism is used in a rather old-fashioned way, with echoes of the cold war. In general, the terminology used in the majority of recent research on the political subsystem in Yugoslavia is characterised by a special ideological style and by practical political material, rather than by developed theoretical effort. The second section of analysis considered the wider theoretical background of the research and focused on studies of the processes of transformation and transition in Yugoslav society, particularly the work of Mladen Lazic and Silvano Bolcic, who he sees as representing the most important and influential contemporary Yugoslav sociologists. Here Mr. Ilic showed that the meaning of empirical data is closely connected with the stratification schemes towards which they are oriented, so that the same data can have different meanings in shown through different schemes. He went on to show the observed theoretical frames in the context of wider ideological understanding of the authors' ideas and research. Here the emphasis was on the formalistic character of such notions as command economy and command work which were used in analysing the functioning and the collapse of communist society, although Mr. Ilic passed favourable judgement on the Lazic's critique of political over-determination in its various attempts to explain the disintegration of the communist political (sub)system. The next stage of the analysis was devoted to the problem of empirical identification of the observed phenomena. Here again the notions of the political left and right were of key importance. He sees two specific problems in using these notion in talking about Yugoslavia, the first being that the process of transition in the FR Yugoslavia has hardly begun. The communist government has in effect remained in power continuously since 1945, despite the introduction of a multi-party system in 1990. The process of privatisation of public property was interrupted at a very early stage and the results of this are evident on the structural level in the continuous weakening of the social status of the middle class and on the political level because the social structure and dominant form of property direct the majority of votes towards to communists in power. This has been combined with strong chauvinist confusion associated with the wars in Croatia and Bosnia, and these ideas were incorporated by all the relevant Yugoslav political parties, making it more difficult to differentiate between them empirically. In this context he quotes the situation of the stream of political scientists who emerged in the Faculty of Political Science in Belgrade. During the time of the one-party regime, this faculty functioned as ideological support for official communist policy and its teachers were unable to develop views which differed from the official line, but rather treated all contrasting ideas in the same way, neglecting their differences. Following the introduction of a multi-party system, these authors changed their idea of a public enemy, but still retained an undifferentiated and theoretically undeveloped approach to the issue of the identification of political ideas. The fourth section of the work looked at problems of explanation in studying the political subsystem and the attempts at an adequate causal explanation of the triumph of Slobodan Milosevic's communists at four subsequent elections was identified as the key methodological problem. The main problem Mr. Ilic isolated here was the neglect of structural factors in explaining the voters' choice. He then went on to look at the way empirical evidence is collected and studied, pointing out many mistakes in planning and determining the samples used in surveys as well as in the scientifically incorrect use of results. He found these weaknesses particularly noticeable in the works of representatives of the so-called nationalistic orientation in Yugoslav sociology of politics, and he pointed out the practical political abuses which these methodological weaknesses made possible. He also identified similar types of mistakes in research by Serbian political parties made on the basis of party documentation and using methods of content analysis. He found various none-sided applications of survey data and looked at attempts to apply other sources of data (statistics, official party documents, various research results). Mr. Ilic concluded that there are two main sets of characteristics in modern Yugoslav sociological studies of political subsystems. There are a considerable number of surveys with ambitious aspirations to explain political phenomena, but at the same time there is a clear lack of a developed sociological theory of political (sub)systems. He feels that, in the absence of such theory, most researcher are over-ready to accept the theoretical solutions found for interpretation of political phenomena in other countries. He sees a need for a stronger methodological bases for future research, either 1) in complementary usage of different sources and ways of collecting data, or 2) in including more of a historical dimension in different attempts to explain the political subsystem in Yugoslavia.

The Sociolinguistics of Hungarian Outside Hungary

This study describes the sociolinguistic situation of the indigenous Hungarian national minorities in Slovakia (c. 600,000), Ukraine (c. 180,000), Romania (c. 2,000,000), Yugoslavia (c. 300,000), Slovenia (c. 8,000) and Austria (c. 6,000). Following the guidelines of Hans Goebl et al, the historical sociolinguistic portrait of each minority is presented from 1920 through to the mid-1990s. Each country's report includes sections on geography and demography, history, politics, economy, culture and religion, language policy and planning, and language use (domains of minority and/or majority language use, proficiency, attitudes, etc.). The team's findings were presented in the form of 374 pages of manuscripts, articles and tables, written in Hungarian and English. The core of the team's research results lies in the results of an empirical survey designed to study the social characteristics of Hungarian-minority bilingualism in the six project countries, and the linguistic similarities and differences between the six contact varieties of Hungarian and Hungarian in Hungary. The respondents were divided by age, education, and settlement group - city vs. village and local majority vs. local minority. The first thing to be observed is that Hungarian is tending to be spoken less to children than to parents and grandparents, a familiar pattern of language shift. In contact varieties of Hungarian, analytic constructions may be used where monolingual Hungarians would use a more synthetic form. Mr Kontra gives as an example the compound tagdij, which in Standard Hungarian means "membership fee" but which is replaced in contact Hungarian by the two-word phrase tagsagi dij. Another similar example concerns the synthetic verb hegedult "played the violin" and the analytic expression hegedun jatszott. The contrast is especially striking between the Hungarians in the northern Slavic countries, who use the synthetic form frequently, and those in the southern Slavic countries, who mainly use the analytic form. Mr. Kontra notes that from a structural point of view, there is no immediate explanation for this, since Slovak or Ukrainian are as likely to cause interference as is Serbian. He postulates instead that the difference may be attributable to some sociohistoric cause, and points out that the Turkish occupation of what is today Voivodina caused a discontinuity of the Hungarian presence in the region, with the result that Hungarians were resettled in the area only two and a half centuries ago. However, the Hungarians in today's Slovakia and Ukraine have lived together with Slavic peoples continuously for over a millennium. It may be, he suggests, that 250 years of interethnic coexistence is less than is needed for such a contact-induced change to run its course. Next Mr. Kontra moved on to what he terms "mental maps and morphology". In Hungarian, the names of cities and villages take the surface case (eg. Budapest-en "in Budapest") whereas some names denoting Hungarian settlements and all names of foreign cities take the interior case (eg. Tihany-ban "in Tihany" and Boston-ban "in Boston). The role of the semantic feature "foreign" in suffix-choice can be illustrated by such minimal pairs as Velence-n "in Velence, a village in Hungary" versus Velence-ben "in Velence [=Venice], a city in Italy", and Pecs-en "in Pecs, a city in Hungary" vs. Becs-ben "in Becs, ie. Vienna". This Hungarian vs. foreign distinction is often interpreted as "belonging to historical (pre-1920) Hungary" vs. "outside historical Hungary". The distinction is also expressed in the dichotomy "home" vs. "abroad'. The 1920 border changes have had an impact on both majority and minority Hungarians' mental maps, the maps which govern the choice of surface vs. interior cases with placenames. As there is a growing divergence between the mental maps of majority and minority Hungarians, so there will be a growing divergence in their use of the placename suffixes. Two placenames were chosen to scratch the surface of this complex problem: Craiova (a city in Oltenia, Romania) and Kosovo (Hungarian Koszovo) an autonomous region in southeast Yugoslavia. The assumption to be tested was that both placenames would be used with the inessive (interior) suffixes categorically by Hungarians in Hungary, but that the superessive suffix (showing "home") would be used near-categorically by Hungarians in Romania and Yugoslavia (Voivodina). Minority Hungarians in countries other than Romania and Yugoslavia would show no difference from majority Hungarians in Hungary. In fact, the data show that, contrary to expectation, there is considerable variation within Hungary. And although Koszovo is used, as expected, with the "home" suffix by 61% of the informants in Yugoslavia, the same suffix is used by an even higher percentage of the subjects in Slovenia. Mr. Kontra's team suggests that one factor playing a role in this might be the continuance of the former Yugoslav mentality in the Hungarians of Slovenia, at least from the geographical point of view. The contact varieties of Hungarian show important grammatical differences from Hungarian in Hungary. One of these concerns the variable use of Null subjects (the inclusion or exclusion of the subject of the verb). When informants were asked to insert either megkertem or megkertem ot - "I asked her" - into a test sentence, 54.9% of the respondents in the Ukraine inserted the second phrase as opposed to only 27.4% in Hungary. Although Mr. Kontra and his team concentrated more on the differences between Contact Hungarian and Standard Hungarian, they also discovered a number of similarities. One such similarity is demonstrable in the distribution of what Mr. Kontra calls an ongoing syntactic merger in Hungarian in Hungary. This change means effectively that two possibilities merge to form a third. For instance, the two sentences Valoszinuleg kulfoldre fognak koltozni and Valoszinu, hogy kulfoldre fognak koltozni merge to form the new construction Valszinuleg, hogy kulfoldre fognak koltozni ("Probably they will move abroad."). When asked to choose "the most natural" of the sentences, one in four chose the new construction, and a chi-square test shows homogeneity in the sample. In other words, this syntactic change is spreading across the entire Hungarian-speaking region in the Carpathian Basin Mr. Kontra believes that politicians, educators, and other interested parties now have reliable and up-to-date information about each Hungarian minority. An awareness of Hungarian as a pluricentric language is being developed which elevates the status of contact varieties of Hungarian used by the minorities, an essential process, he believes, if minority languages are to be maintained.

Weak Senses as a Type of Semantic Information

'Weak senses' are a specific type of semantic information as opposed to assertions and presuppositions. The universal trait of weak senses is that they assume 'if' modality in negative contexts. In addition they exhibit several other diagnostic properties, e.g. they fill at least one of their valency places with a semantic element sensitive to negation (i.e. with an assertion or other weak sense), they normally do not fall within the scope of functors, do not play any role in causal relations, and resist intensification. As weak senses are widespread in lexical, grammatical and referential semantics, this notion holds the clue to phenomena as diverse as the oppositions little - a little, few - a few, edva ('hardly') - cut' ('slightly), where a little, a few, cut, convey 'weakly' approximately what little, few, and edva do in an assertive way, the semantics of the Russian perfect aspect, and the formation rules for conjunction strings. Zeldovich outlines a typology of weak senses, the main distinction being between weak senses unilaterally dependent upon the truthfulness of what they saturate their valency with, and weak senses exerting their own influence on the main situation. The latter, called, non-trivial, are instantiated by existential quantifiers involved in the semantics of indefinite pronouns, iterative verbs, etc.