Formation of Exchange Rates on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling

Galina Kovaleva. The Formation of the Exchange Rate on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling. The Russian financial market is fast becoming one of the major sectors of the Russian economy. Assets have been increasing steadily, while new market segments and new financial market instruments have emerged. Kovaleva attempted to isolate the factors influencing exchange rates, determine patterns in the dynamic changes to the rouble/dollar exchange rate, construct models of the processes, and on the basis of these activities make forecasts. She studied the significance of economic indicators influencing the rouble/dollar exchange rate at different times, and developed multi-factor econometric models. In order to reveal the inner structure of the financial indicators and to work out ex-post forecasts for different time intervals, she carried out a series of calculations with the aim of constructing trend-cyclical (TC) and harmonic models, and Box and Jenkins models. She found that: 1. The Russian financial market is dependant on the rouble/dollar exchange rate. Its dynamics are formed under the influence of the short-term state treasury notes and government bonds markets, interbank loans, the rouble/DM exchange rate, the inflation rate, and the DM/dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate is influenced by sales on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange and the mechanism of those sales. 2. The TC model makes it possible to conduct an in-depth study of the structure of the processes and to make forecasts of the dynamic changes to currency indicators. 3. The Russian market is increasingly influenced by the world currency market and its prospects are of crucial interest for the world financial community.

Development of Socio-Economic Behaviour and Attitudes of Baltic Nationalities: Perspectives for Integration with Europe

This project is the third stage of a comparative research project, The New Baltic Barometer, which was carried out simultaneously with the "New Democracies Barometer" of the Paul Lazerfeld Society (Vienna) and The Russian Barometer. It studied the opinion and behaviour of the largest Baltic ethnic groups (Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians). The main focus was on the attitudes of Baltic residents towards the changes in the economic and political system, attitudes towards political values, political trust, and attitudes to the Baltic countries joining the European Union. An analysis of macroeconomic indicators of the Baltic states made it possible to deduce the link between the country's economic development, and satisfaction with the political regime and attitudes towards democratic values. The study analysed the conditions for the democratisation of society, i.e. the development of culture and public opinion in the Baltic states. Attention was also paid to the development of a social network of individuals, showing the transition from informal networks to impersonal institutions. The group concluded that the participation of residents in formal organisations, NGOs in particular, considerably fosters political trust and also increases political efficacy. Participation in formal organisations also reduces the importance of esteem for an authoritarian leader.