Birth, Survival and Growth of Small and Medium Sized Enterprises in Poland: 1990-1994

This research is based on a unique and extensive database which tracks the employment, payroll and sales of individual Polish firms for the period 1990 to 1995. This allowed the authors to calculate the birth, survival and growth rates for different categories of enterprises (state-owned, cooperative, private, foreign-owned and privatised after 1990) and regions. These data match data collected in the United States, making it possible to compare the Polish situation with that of the state of Michigan. Analysis of the data and lessons from the Poland-Michigan comparisons provide a solid basis for the formulation of new policy recommendations for Poland. Allowing for certain important differences, Poland would still seem to need a higher rate of births of new companies. New small private companies and companies with foreign capital can be seen as the main source of job creation and economic revitalisation. To strengthen positive trends in the economy, Poland should create a model of institutional support for both potential entrepreneurs and foreign investors.

Formation of Exchange Rates on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling

Galina Kovaleva. The Formation of the Exchange Rate on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling. The Russian financial market is fast becoming one of the major sectors of the Russian economy. Assets have been increasing steadily, while new market segments and new financial market instruments have emerged. Kovaleva attempted to isolate the factors influencing exchange rates, determine patterns in the dynamic changes to the rouble/dollar exchange rate, construct models of the processes, and on the basis of these activities make forecasts. She studied the significance of economic indicators influencing the rouble/dollar exchange rate at different times, and developed multi-factor econometric models. In order to reveal the inner structure of the financial indicators and to work out ex-post forecasts for different time intervals, she carried out a series of calculations with the aim of constructing trend-cyclical (TC) and harmonic models, and Box and Jenkins models. She found that: 1. The Russian financial market is dependant on the rouble/dollar exchange rate. Its dynamics are formed under the influence of the short-term state treasury notes and government bonds markets, interbank loans, the rouble/DM exchange rate, the inflation rate, and the DM/dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate is influenced by sales on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange and the mechanism of those sales. 2. The TC model makes it possible to conduct an in-depth study of the structure of the processes and to make forecasts of the dynamic changes to currency indicators. 3. The Russian market is increasingly influenced by the world currency market and its prospects are of crucial interest for the world financial community.