The Recent Structure of Wages in the Czech Republic

The project drew on an extensive firm-level sample of employees to describe in detail the recent evolution of the structure of wages in the Czech Republic between 1995 and 1998. The results of the analysis were then compared with information from EU countries. Regression analysis was used to study a number of specific questions, with particular emphasis being paid to proper weighting of the sample. Jurajda first quantified the effects on male and female hourly wages in the Czech Republic of worker age and education, firm size, region, industry and ownership type. He then examined whether these effects have been changing over time and how they differ by gender, and identified those industrial sectors that carry the largest wage premiums not accounted for by worker or firm characteristics, and measured the effect of unemployment on wages. He found a substantial increase in returns on human capital, with the earning differentials for education increasing substantially between 1995 and 1998, with these gains being largely comparable to those in western countries. Overall, the Czech structure of wages is now very responsive to market forces and is converging rapidly on EU-type flexibility in almost every dimension. It is likely, however, that due to the constrained supply of tertiary-educated workers in particular, the returns on education may keep on rising, surpassing levels typical of western economies and potentially reaching the high levels observed in developing countries.

The Choice of Expedient Regulatory Controls on Housing Market Using Short-Term Equilibria Model

Khutoretsky dealt with the problem of maximising a linear utility function (MUF) over the set of short-term equilibria in a housing market by reducing it to a linear programming problem, and suggested a combinatorial algorithm for this problem. Two approaches to the market adjustment were considered: the funding of housing construction and the granting of housing allowances. In both cases, locally optimal regulatory measures can be developed using the corresponding dual prices. The optimal effects (with the regulation expenditures restricted by an amount K) can be found using specialised models based on MUF: a model M1 for choice of the optimum structure of investment in housing construction, and a model M2 for optimum distribution of housing allowances. The linear integer optimisation problems corresponding to these models are initially difficult but can be solved after slight modifications of the parameters. In particular, the necessary modification of K does not exceed the maximum construction cost of one dwelling (for M1) or the maximum size of one housing allowance (for M2). The result is particularly useful since slight modification of K is not essential in practice.

Formation of Exchange Rates on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling

Galina Kovaleva. The Formation of the Exchange Rate on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling. The Russian financial market is fast becoming one of the major sectors of the Russian economy. Assets have been increasing steadily, while new market segments and new financial market instruments have emerged. Kovaleva attempted to isolate the factors influencing exchange rates, determine patterns in the dynamic changes to the rouble/dollar exchange rate, construct models of the processes, and on the basis of these activities make forecasts. She studied the significance of economic indicators influencing the rouble/dollar exchange rate at different times, and developed multi-factor econometric models. In order to reveal the inner structure of the financial indicators and to work out ex-post forecasts for different time intervals, she carried out a series of calculations with the aim of constructing trend-cyclical (TC) and harmonic models, and Box and Jenkins models. She found that: 1. The Russian financial market is dependant on the rouble/dollar exchange rate. Its dynamics are formed under the influence of the short-term state treasury notes and government bonds markets, interbank loans, the rouble/DM exchange rate, the inflation rate, and the DM/dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate is influenced by sales on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange and the mechanism of those sales. 2. The TC model makes it possible to conduct an in-depth study of the structure of the processes and to make forecasts of the dynamic changes to currency indicators. 3. The Russian market is increasingly influenced by the world currency market and its prospects are of crucial interest for the world financial community.