The Permanent Income Hypothesis: A Test on Czech Privatisation

Since the late eighties, economists have been regarding the transition from command to market economies in Central and Eastern Europe with intense interest. In addition to studying the transition per se, they have begun using the region as a testing ground on which to investigate the validity of certain classic economic propositions. In his research, comprising three articles written in English and totalling 40 pages, Mr. Hanousek uses the so-called "Czech national experiment" (voucher privatisation scheme) to test the permanent income hypothesis (PIH). He took as his inspiration Kreinin's recommendation: "Since data concerning the behaviour of windfall income recipients is relatively scanty, and since such data can constitute an important test of the permanent income hypothesis, it is of interest to bring to bear on the hypothesis whatever information is available". Mr. Hanousek argues that, since the transfer of property to Czech citizens from 1992 to 1994 through the voucher scheme was not anticipated, it can be regarded as windfall income. The average size of the windfall was more than three month's salary and over 60 percent of the Czech population received this unexpected income. Furthermore, there are other reasons for conducting such an analysis in the Czech Republic. Firstly, the privatisation process took place quickly. Secondly, both the economy and consumer behaviour have been very stable. Thirdly, out of a total population of 10 million Czech citizens, an astonishing 6 million, that is, virtually every household, participated in the scheme. Thus Czech voucher privatisation provides a sample for testing the PIH almost equivalent to a full population, thus avoiding problems with the distribution of windfalls. Compare this, for instance with the fact that only 4% of the Israeli urban population received personal restitution from Germany, while the number of veterans who received the National Service Life Insurance Dividends amounted to less than 9% of the US population and were concentrated in certain age groups. But to begin with, Mr. Hanousek considers the question of whether the public percieves the transfer from the state to individual as an increase in net wealth. It can be argued that the state is only divesting itself of assets that would otherwise provide a future source of transfers. According to this argument, assigning these assets to individuals creates an offsetting change in the present value of potential future transfers so that individuals are no better off after the transfer. Mr. Hanousek disagrees with this approach. He points out that a change in the ownership of inefficient state-owned enterprises should lead to higher efficiency, which alone increases the value of enterprises and creates a windfall increase in citizens' portfolios. More importantly, the state and individuals had very different preferences during the transition. Despite government propaganda, it is doubtful that citizens of former communist countries viewed government-owned enterprises as being operated in the citizens' best interest. Moreover, it is unlikely that the public fully comprehended the sophisticated links between the state budget, state-owned enterprises, and transfers to individuals. Finally, the transfers were not equal across the population. Mr. Hanousek conducted a survey on 1263 individuals, dividing them into four monthly earnings categories. After determining whether the respondent had participated in the voucher process, he asked those who had how much of what they received from voucher privatisation had been (a) spent on goods and services, (b) invested elsewhere, (c) transferred to newly emerging pension funds, (d) given to a family member, and (e) retained in their original form as an investment. Both the mean and the variance of the windfall rise with income. He obtained similar results with respect to education, where the mean (median) windfall for those with a basic school education was 13,600 Czech Crowns (CZK), a figure that increased to 15,000 CZK for those with a high school education without exams, 19,900 CZK for high school graduates with exams, and 24,600 CZK for university graduates. Mr. Hanousek concludes that it can be argued that higher income (and better educated) groups allocated their vouchers or timed the disposition of their shares better. He turns next to an analysis of how respondents reported using their windfalls. The key result is that only a relatively small number of individuals reported spending on goods. Overall, the results provide strong support for the permanent income hypothesis, the only apparent deviation being the fact that both men and women aged 26 to 35 apparently consume more than they should if the windfall were annuitised. This finding is still fully consistent with the PIH, however, if this group is at a stage in their life-cycle where, without the windfall, they would be borrowing to finance consumption associated with family formation etc. Indeed, the PIH predicts that individuals who would otherwise borrow to finance consumption would consume the windfall up to the level equal to the annuitised fraction of the increase in lifetime income plus the full amount of the previously planned borrowing for consumption. Greater consumption would then be financed, not from investing the windfall, but from avoidance of future repayment obligations for debts that would have been incurred without the windfall.

A New Symbiosis: Municipalities, Private Contractors and Non-Governmental Organisations for the Provision of Local Public Services"

This project considered the second stage of transforming local administration and public service management to reflect democratic forms of government. In Hungary in the second half of the 1990s more and more public functions delegated to local governments have been handed over to the private or civil sectors. This has led to a relative decrease of municipal functions but not of local governments' responsibilities, requiring them to change their orientation and approach to their work so as to be effective in their new roles of managing these processes rather than traditional bureaucratic administration. Horvath analysed the Anglo-Saxon, French and German models of self-government, identifying the differing aspects emphasised in increasing the private sector's role in the provision of public services, and the influence that this process has on the system of public administration. He then highlighted linkages between actors and local governments in Hungary, concluding that the next necessary step is to develop institutional mechanisms, financial incentives and managerial practices to utilise the full potential of this process. Equally important is the need for conscious avoidance of restrictive barriers and unintended consequences, and for local governments to confront the social conflicts that have emerged in parallel with privatisation. A further aspect considered was a widening of the role of functional governance at local level in the field of human services. A number of different special purpose bodies have been set up in Hungary, but the results of their work are unclear and Horvath feels that this institutionalisation of symbiosis is not the right path in Hungary today. He believes that the change from local government to local governance will require the formulation of specific public policy, the relevance of which can be proven by processes supported with actions.

Changes in Psychological Characteristics of Working Adults in Different Stages of Economic Transition in Lithuania

Global economic changes have psychological consequences and Mr. Lepeska set out to assess these changes in working adults in Lithuania between 1993 and 1997. He surveyed two groups of working adults, with a total of 200 people, randomly selected and representing different organisations and professions. In both groups around 30% of participants were managers, with the remainder working in non-managerial positions. The participants were surveyed twice, once in 1993 and the second time in 1997,using various psychodiagnostic tools to measure their psychological characteristics. The results showed that strategies for coping with stress have changed, with problem solving strategies being used more often, and avoidance behaviour or seeking social support less. Men tended to have rejected these strategy more radically than women. Attitudes towards work had become more positive, with managers' attitudes having changed more significantly than those of employees from lower levels of organisations. Younger people were more positive towards work-related changes, while situational anxiety tended to increase with age, although overall it remained low. Mr. Lepeska found that while there were some indications of an increasing individualist in relation to peers, the traditional collective orientation of Lithuanian adults had if anything increased. People have become more accepting of an unequal distribution of power, making it difficult to increase the participation of subordinates in decision making. He also noted a tendency for Lithuanians to see their organisations as traditional families, expecting them to take care of them physically and economically in return for loyalty. The strong feminine orientation with its stress on interpersonal relations and overall quality of life has also strengthened, but the ability of Lithuanians to take initiative and control their environment was relatively low. Mr. Lepeska concludes that organisations should seek to recruit people who are able to adjust more easily to changes and consider measuring dominance, individualism, and attitudes to work-related change and situational anxiety in the process of professional selection. There should also be more emphasis on team building and on training managers to maintain closer relationships with their subordinates so as to increase the latter's participation in decision making. Good interpersonal relations can be a strong work motivator, as may be special attention to the security needs of older employees.

Colour Symbolism, Colour Preference in Hungarian Folklore and Folk Architecture"

The Hungarian way of decoration has certain characteristics which are rooted in the deep symbolism of ancient Hungarian mythical thinking. The ancient heritage of the Hungarians' former homeland somewhere in the Urals included eastern elements. During their migrations, the Hungarian tribes met other eastern peoples and their culture of decoration became mixed with elements drawn from these new contacts. These diverse influences mean that the Hungarian way of thinking, building and ornamentation show a certain dualism of Puritanism and rationalism in the creation of space and manufacturing, and rich fantasy in decoration and ornamentation. The Hungarians use coloured ornamentation to emphasise the symbolic importance of details. The colouring system of the built environment shows the same dualism: the main colour of the facades and inner walls is white, while the furniture, textiles, gates and windows, and sometimes the gable and fireplace are richly decorated. In Hungarian symbolism, the house and settlement are a model of the universe, so their different parts also have a transcendent meaning. The traditional meanings of the different colours reflect this transcendence. Each colour has ambivalent meanings: RED - the colour of blood - means violence and love. YELLOW - means sickness, death and ripeness (golden yellow). BLUE - means innocence, eternity (light blue) and old age, death (dark blue). BLACK - can be both ceremonial and mourning. WHILE - can have sacred meaning (bright white), while yellowish white fabric is the most common garb of both men and women in village society. GREEN - the only colour without a dual meaning, symbolises the beginning of life. Until the late 18th and early 19th centuries Hungarian folk art used one or two-coloured decoration (red, black, blue, red-blue or red-black), and from the early 19th century it moved to multi-coloured decoration. Colours are characteristically used in complementary contrast, with bright colours on a plain ground and an avoidance of subtle shadings.