The Effects of Interstate Speed Limit Increases: Fatality Rates and Traffic Diversion Versus Speed Spillover

This thesis examines two panel data sets of 48 states from 1981 to 2009 and utilizes ordinary least squares (OLS) and fixed effects models to explore the relationship between rural Interstate speed limits and fatality rates and whether rural Interstate speed limits affect non-Interstate safety. Models provide evidence that rural Interstate speed limits higher than 55 MPH lead to higher fatality rates on rural Interstates though this effect is somewhat tempered by reductions in fatality rates for roads other than rural Interstates. These results provide some but not unanimous support for the traffic diversion hypothesis that rural Interstate speed limit increases lead to decreases in fatality rates of other roads. To the author’s knowledge, this paper is the first econometric study to differentiate between the effects of 70 MPH speed limits and speed limits above 70 MPH on fatality rates using a multi-state data set. Considering both rural Interstates and other roads, rural Interstate speed limit increases above 55 MPH are responsible for 39,700 net fatalities, 4.1 percent of total fatalities from 1987, the year limits were first raised, to 2009.

Quantum Mechanical Study of Sulfuric Acid Hydration: Atmospheric Implications

The role of the binary nucleation of sulfuric acid in aerosol formation and its implications for global warming is one of the fundamental unsettled questions in atmospheric chemistry. We have investigated the thermodynamics of sulfuric acid hydration using ab initio quantum mechanical methods. For H2SO4(H2O)n where n = 1–6, we used a scheme combining molecular dynamics configurational sampling with high-level ab initio calculations to locate the global and many low lying local minima for each cluster size. For each isomer, we extrapolated the Møller–Plesset perturbation theory (MP2) energies to their complete basis set (CBS) limit and added finite temperature corrections within the rigid-rotor-harmonic-oscillator (RRHO) model using scaled harmonic vibrational frequencies. We found that ionic pair (HSO4–·H3O+)(H2O)n−1clusters are competitive with the neutral (H2SO4)(H2O)n clusters for n ≥ 3 and are more stable than neutral clusters for n ≥ 4 depending on the temperature. The Boltzmann averaged Gibbs free energies for the formation of H2SO4(H2O)n clusters are favorable in colder regions of the troposphere (T = 216.65–273.15 K) for n = 1–6, but the formation of clusters with n ≥ 5 is not favorable at higher (T > 273.15 K) temperatures. Our results suggest the critical cluster of a binary H2SO4–H2O system must contain more than one H2SO4 and are in concert with recent findings(1) that the role of binary nucleation is small at ambient conditions, but significant at colder regions of the troposphere. Overall, the results support the idea that binary nucleation of sulfuric acid and water cannot account for nucleation of sulfuric acid in the lower troposphere.