Advantages and Applications of Transforming Empirical Model Input Space with Dimensional Models

Model-based calibration of steady-state engine operation is commonly performed with highly parameterized empirical models that are accurate but not very robust, particularly when predicting highly nonlinear responses such as diesel smoke emissions. To address this problem, and to boost the accuracy of more robust non-parametric methods to the same level, GT-Power was used to transform the empirical model input space into multiple input spaces that simplified the input-output relationship and improved the accuracy and robustness of smoke predictions made by three commonly used empirical modeling methods: Multivariate Regression, Neural Networks and the k-Nearest Neighbor method. The availability of multiple input spaces allowed the development of two committee techniques: a 'Simple Committee' technique that used averaged predictions from a set of 10 pre-selected input spaces chosen by the training data and the "Minimum Variance Committee" technique where the input spaces for each prediction were chosen on the basis of disagreement between the three modeling methods. This latter technique equalized the performance of the three modeling methods. The successively increasing improvements resulting from the use of a single best transformed input space (Best Combination Technique), Simple Committee Technique and Minimum Variance Committee Technique were verified with hypothesis testing. The transformed input spaces were also shown to improve outlier detection and to improve k-Nearest Neighbor performance when predicting dynamic emissions with steady-state training data. An unexpected finding was that the benefits of input space transformation were unaffected by changes in the hardware or the calibration of the underlying GT-Power model.

Geophysical Investigation of Subsurface Three-Dimensional Architecture of Icy Debris Fans With Ground Penetrating Radar in the Wrangell Mountains, Alaska

Icy debris fans have are newly-described landforms (Kochel and Trop, 2008 and 2012) as landforms developed immediately after deglaciation on Earth and similar features have been observed on Mars. Subsurface characteristics of Icy debris fans have not been previously investigated. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) was used to non-invasively investigate the subsurface characteristics of icy debris fans near McCarthy, Alaska, USA. The three fans investigated in Alaska are the East, West, and Middle fans (Kochel and Trop, 2008 and 2012) which below the Nabesna ice cap and on top of the McCarthy Creek Glacier. Icy debris fans in general are a largely unexplored suite of paraglacial landforms and processes in alpine regions. Recent field studies focused on direct observations and depositional processes. Their results showed that the fan's composition is primarily influenced by the type and frequency of depositional processes that supply the fan. Photographic studies show that the East Fan receives far more ice and snow avalanches whereas the Middle and West Fans receive fewer mass wasting events but more clastic debris is deposited on the Middle and West fan from rock falls and icy debris flows. GPR profiles and Wide-angle reflection and refraction (WARR) surveys consisting of both, common mid-point (CMP), and common shot-point (CSP) surveys investigated the subsurface geometry of the fans and the McCarthy Creek Glacier. All GPR surveys were collected in July of 2013 with 100MHz bi-static antennas. Four axial profiles and three cross-fan profiles were done on the West and Middle fans as well as the McCarthy Creek Glacier in order to investigate the relationship between the three features. GPR profiles yielded reflectors that were continuous for 10+ m and hyperbolic reflections in the subsurface. The depth to these reflections in the subsurface requires knowledge of the velocity of the subsurface. To find the velocity of the subsurface eight WARR surveys collected on the fans and on the McCarthy Creek glacier to provide information on variability of subsurface velocities. The profiles of the Middle and West fan have more reflections in their profiles compared to profiles done on the McCarthy Creek Glacier. Based on the WARR surveys, we interpret the lower energy return in the glacier to be caused by two reasons. 1) The increased attenuation due to wet ice versus drier ice and on the fan with GPR velocities >0.15m/ns. 2) Lack of interfaces in the glacier compared to those in the fans which are inferred to be produced by the alternating layers of stratified ice and lithic-rich layers. The GPR profiles on the West and Middle Fans show the shallow subsurface being dominated by lenticular reflections interpreted to be consistent with the shape of surficial deposits. The West Fan is distinguished from the Middle Fan by the nature of its reflections patterns and thicknesses of reflection packages that clearly shows the Middle fan with a greater thickness. The changes in subsurface reflections between the Middle and West Fans as well as the McCarthy Creek Glacier are thought to reflect the type and frequency of depositional processes and surrounding bedrock and talus slopes.