The Incumbent Spending Puzzle

Objective This article seeks to explain the puzzle of why incumbents spend so much on campaigns despite most research finding that their spending has almost no effect on voters. Methods The article uses ordinary least squares, instrumental variables, and fixed-effects regression to estimate the impact of incumbent spending on election outcomes. The estimation includes an interaction term between incumbent and challenger spending to allow the effect of incumbent spending to depend on the level of challenger spending. Results The estimation provides strong evidence that spending by the incumbent has a larger positive impact on votes received the more money the challenger spends. Conclusion Campaign spending by incumbents is most valuable in the races where the incumbent faces a serious challenge. Raising large sums of money to be used in close races is thus a rational choice by incumbents.

The Effects of Interstate Speed Limit Increases: Fatality Rates and Traffic Diversion Versus Speed Spillover

This thesis examines two panel data sets of 48 states from 1981 to 2009 and utilizes ordinary least squares (OLS) and fixed effects models to explore the relationship between rural Interstate speed limits and fatality rates and whether rural Interstate speed limits affect non-Interstate safety. Models provide evidence that rural Interstate speed limits higher than 55 MPH lead to higher fatality rates on rural Interstates though this effect is somewhat tempered by reductions in fatality rates for roads other than rural Interstates. These results provide some but not unanimous support for the traffic diversion hypothesis that rural Interstate speed limit increases lead to decreases in fatality rates of other roads. To the author’s knowledge, this paper is the first econometric study to differentiate between the effects of 70 MPH speed limits and speed limits above 70 MPH on fatality rates using a multi-state data set. Considering both rural Interstates and other roads, rural Interstate speed limit increases above 55 MPH are responsible for 39,700 net fatalities, 4.1 percent of total fatalities from 1987, the year limits were first raised, to 2009.

Vibrational Relaxation of 13CO2(v2) by Atomic Oxygen

Carbon dioxide (CO2) has been of recent interest due to the issue of greenhouse cooling in the upper atmosphere by species such as CO2 and NO. In the Earth’s upper atmosphere, between altitudes of 75 and 110 km, a collisional energy exchange occurs between CO2 and atomic oxygen, which promotes a population of ground state CO2 to the bend excited state. The relaxation of CO2 following this excitation is characterized by spontaneous emission of 15-μm. Most of this energy is emitted away from Earth. Due to the low density in the upper atmosphere, most of this energy is not reabsorbed and thus escapes into space, leading to a local cooling effect in the upper atmosphere. To determine the efficiency of the CO2- O atom collisional energy exchange, transient diode laser absorption spectroscopy was used to monitor the population of the first vibrationally excited state, 13CO2(0110) or ν2, as a function of time. The rate coefficient, kO(ν2), for the vibrational relaxation 13CO2 (ν2)-O was determined by fitting laboratory measurements using a home-written linear least squares algorithm. The rate coefficient, kO(ν2), of the vibrational relaxation of 13CO2(ν2), by atomic oxygen at room temperature was determined to be (1.6 ± 0.3 x 10-12 cm3 s-1), which is within the uncertainty of the rate coefficient previously found in this group for 12CO2(ν2) relaxation. The cold temperature kO(ν2) values were determined to be: (2.1 ± 0.8) x 10-12 cm3 s-1 at Tfinal = 274 K, (1.8 ± 0.3) x 10-12 cm3 s-1 at Tfinal = 239 K, (2 ± 1) x 10-12 cm3 s-1 at Tfinal = 208 K, and (1.7 ± 0.3) x 10-12 cm3 s-1 at Tfinal = 186 K. These data did not show a definitive negative temperature dependence comparable to that found for 12CO2 previously.