Development of a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engine electronic control module tables – Part 1: data requirements, processing, and analysis

This is the first part of a study investigating a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engines. The motivation is to populate hundreds of parameters (which can be calibrated) in a methodical and optimum manner by using model-based optimization in conjunction with the manual process so that, relative to the manual process used by itself, a significant improvement in transient emissions and fuel consumption and a sizable reduction in calibration time and test cell requirements is achieved. Empirical transient modelling and optimization has been addressed in the second part of this work, while the required data for model training and generalization are the focus of the current work. Transient and steady-state data from a turbocharged multicylinder diesel engine have been examined from a model training perspective. A single-cylinder engine with external air-handling has been used to expand the steady-state data to encompass transient parameter space. Based on comparative model performance and differences in the non-parametric space, primarily driven by a high engine difference between exhaust and intake manifold pressures (ΔP) during transients, it has been recommended that transient emission models should be trained with transient training data. It has been shown that electronic control module (ECM) estimates of transient charge flow and the exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) fraction cannot be accurate at the high engine ΔP frequently encountered during transient operation, and that such estimates do not account for cylinder-to-cylinder variation. The effects of high engine ΔP must therefore be incorporated empirically by using transient data generated from a spectrum of transient calibrations. Specific recommendations on how to choose such calibrations, how many data to acquire, and how to specify transient segments for data acquisition have been made. Methods to process transient data to account for transport delays and sensor lags have been developed. The processed data have then been visualized using statistical means to understand transient emission formation. Two modes of transient opacity formation have been observed and described. The first mode is driven by high engine ΔP and low fresh air flowrates, while the second mode is driven by high engine ΔP and high EGR flowrates. The EGR fraction is inaccurately estimated at both modes, while EGR distribution has been shown to be present but unaccounted for by the ECM. The two modes and associated phenomena are essential to understanding why transient emission models are calibration dependent and furthermore how to choose training data that will result in good model generalization.

Development of a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engine electronic control module tables – Part 2: modelling and optimization

This is the second part of a study investigating a model-based transient calibration process for diesel engines. The first part addressed the data requirements and data processing required for empirical transient emission and torque models. The current work focuses on modelling and optimization. The unexpected result of this investigation is that when trained on transient data, simple regression models perform better than more powerful methods such as neural networks or localized regression. This result has been attributed to extrapolation over data that have estimated rather than measured transient air-handling parameters. The challenges of detecting and preventing extrapolation using statistical methods that work well with steady-state data have been explained. The concept of constraining the distribution of statistical leverage relative to the distribution of the starting solution to prevent extrapolation during the optimization process has been proposed and demonstrated. Separate from the issue of extrapolation is preventing the search from being quasi-static. Second-order linear dynamic constraint models have been proposed to prevent the search from returning solutions that are feasible if each point were run at steady state, but which are unrealistic in a transient sense. Dynamic constraint models translate commanded parameters to actually achieved parameters that then feed into the transient emission and torque models. Combined model inaccuracies have been used to adjust the optimized solutions. To frame the optimization problem within reasonable dimensionality, the coefficients of commanded surfaces that approximate engine tables are adjusted during search iterations, each of which involves simulating the entire transient cycle. The resulting strategy, different from the corresponding manual calibration strategy and resulting in lower emissions and efficiency, is intended to improve rather than replace the manual calibration process.

Quality Control in the Healthcare Industry: An Analysis of Surgery Turnover Times

For virtually all hospitals, utilization rates are a critical managerial indicator of efficiency and are determined in part by turnover time. Turnover time is defined as the time elapsed between surgeries, during which the operating room is cleaned and preparedfor the next surgery. Lengthier turnover times result in lower utilization rates, thereby hindering hospitals’ ability to maximize the numbers of patients that can be attended to. In this thesis, we analyze operating room data from a two year period provided byEvangelical Community Hospital in Lewisburg, Pennsylvania, to understand the variability of the turnover process. From the recorded data provided, we derive our best estimation of turnover time. Recognizing the importance of being able to properly modelturnover times in order to improve the accuracy of scheduling, we seek to fit distributions to the set of turnover times. We find that log-normal and log-logistic distributions are well-suited to turnover times, although further research must validate this finding. Wepropose that the choice of distribution depends on the hospital and, as a result, a hospital must choose whether to use the log-normal or the log-logistic distribution. Next, we use statistical tests to identify variables that may potentially influence turnover time. We find that there does not appear to be a correlation between surgerytime and turnover time across doctors. However, there are statistically significant differences between the mean turnover times across doctors. The final component of our research entails analyzing and explaining the benefits of introducing control charts as a quality control mechanism for monitoring turnover times in hospitals. Although widely instituted in other industries, control charts are notwidely adopted in healthcare environments, despite their potential benefits. A major component of our work is the development of control charts to monitor the stability of turnover times. These charts can be easily instituted in hospitals to reduce the variabilityof turnover times. Overall, our analysis uses operations research techniques to analyze turnover times and identify manners for improvement in lowering the mean turnover time and thevariability in turnover times. We provide valuable insight into a component of the surgery process that has received little attention, but can significantly affect utilization rates in hospitals. Most critically, an ability to more accurately predict turnover timesand a better understanding of the sources of variability can result in improved scheduling and heightened hospital staff and patient satisfaction. We hope that our findings can apply to many other hospital settings.