The Effects of Interstate Speed Limit Increases: Fatality Rates and Traffic Diversion Versus Speed Spillover

This thesis examines two panel data sets of 48 states from 1981 to 2009 and utilizes ordinary least squares (OLS) and fixed effects models to explore the relationship between rural Interstate speed limits and fatality rates and whether rural Interstate speed limits affect non-Interstate safety. Models provide evidence that rural Interstate speed limits higher than 55 MPH lead to higher fatality rates on rural Interstates though this effect is somewhat tempered by reductions in fatality rates for roads other than rural Interstates. These results provide some but not unanimous support for the traffic diversion hypothesis that rural Interstate speed limit increases lead to decreases in fatality rates of other roads. To the author’s knowledge, this paper is the first econometric study to differentiate between the effects of 70 MPH speed limits and speed limits above 70 MPH on fatality rates using a multi-state data set. Considering both rural Interstates and other roads, rural Interstate speed limit increases above 55 MPH are responsible for 39,700 net fatalities, 4.1 percent of total fatalities from 1987, the year limits were first raised, to 2009.

Mapping the Operation of the Miniature Combustion Aerosol Standard (Mini-CAST) Soot Generator

The Jing Ltd. miniature combustion aerosol standard (Mini-CAST) soot generator is a portable, commercially available burner that is widely used for laboratory measurements of soot processes. While many studies have used the Mini-CAST to generate soot with known size, concentration, and organic carbon fraction under a single or few conditions, there has been no systematic study of the burner operation over a wide range of operating conditions. Here, we present a comprehensive characterization of the microphysical, chemical, morphological, and hygroscopic properties of Mini-CAST soot over the full range of oxidation air and mixing N-2 flow rates. Very fuel-rich and fuel-lean flame conditions are found to produce organic-dominated soot with mode diameters of 10-60nm, and the highest particle number concentrations are produced under fuel-rich conditions. The lowest organic fraction and largest diameter soot (70-130nm) occur under slightly fuel-lean conditions. Moving from fuel-rich to fuel-lean conditions also increases the O:C ratio of the soot coatings from similar to 0.05 to similar to 0.25, which causes a small fraction of the particles to act as cloud condensation nuclei near the Kelvin limit (kappa similar to 0-10(-3)). Comparison of these property ranges to those reported in the literature for aircraft and diesel engine soots indicates that the Mini-CAST soot is similar to real-world primary soot particles, which lends itself to a variety of process-based soot studies. The trends in soot properties uncovered here will guide selection of burner operating conditions to achieve optimum soot properties that are most relevant to such studies.

Analysis and Prediction of Transient Opacity Spikes Using Dimensional Modeling

Dimensional modeling, GT-Power in particular, has been used for two related purposes-to quantify and understand the inaccuracies of transient engine flow estimates that cause transient smoke spikes and to improve empirical models of opacity or particulate matter used for engine calibration. It has been proposed by dimensional modeling that exhaust gas recirculation flow rate was significantly underestimated and volumetric efficiency was overestimated by the electronic control module during the turbocharger lag period of an electronically controlled heavy duty diesel engine. Factoring in cylinder-to-cylinder variation, it has been shown that the electronic control module estimated fuel-Oxygen ratio was lower than actual by up to 35% during the turbocharger lag period but within 2% of actual elsewhere, thus hindering fuel-Oxygen ratio limit-based smoke control. The dimensional modeling of transient flow was enabled with a new method of simulating transient data in which the manifold pressures and exhaust gas recirculation system flow resistance, characterized as a function of exhaust gas recirculation valve position at each measured transient data point, were replicated by quasi-static or transient simulation to predict engine flows. Dimensional modeling was also used to transform the engine operating parameter model input space to a more fundamental lower dimensional space so that a nearest neighbor approach could be used to predict smoke emissions. This new approach, intended for engine calibration and control modeling, was termed the "nonparametric reduced dimensionality" approach. It was used to predict federal test procedure cumulative particulate matter within 7% of measured value, based solely on steady-state training data. Very little correlation between the model inputs in the transformed space was observed as compared to the engine operating parameter space. This more uniform, smaller, shrunken model input space might explain how the nonparametric reduced dimensionality approach model could successfully predict federal test procedure emissions when roughly 40% of all transient points were classified as outliers as per the steady-state training data.