Multivariate modelling of responses to conditional items: New possibilities for latent class analysis

Questionnaire data may contain missing values because certain questions do not apply to all respondents. For instance, questions addressing particular attributes of a symptom, such as frequency, triggers or seasonality, are only applicable to those who have experienced the symptom, while for those who have not, responses to these items will be missing. This missing information does not fall into the category 'missing by design', rather the features of interest do not exist and cannot be measured regardless of survey design. Analysis of responses to such conditional items is therefore typically restricted to the subpopulation in which they apply. This article is concerned with joint multivariate modelling of responses to both unconditional and conditional items without restricting the analysis to this subpopulation. Such an approach is of interest when the distributions of both types of responses are thought to be determined by common parameters affecting the whole population. By integrating the conditional item structure into the model, inference can be based both on unconditional data from the entire population and on conditional data from subjects for whom they exist. This approach opens new possibilities for multivariate analysis of such data. We apply this approach to latent class modelling and provide an example using data on respiratory symptoms (wheeze and cough) in children. Conditional data structures such as that considered here are common in medical research settings and, although our focus is on latent class models, the approach can be applied to other multivariate models.

Genetic diversity and differentiation follow secondary succession in a multi-species study on woody plants from subtropical China

Aims: Species diversity and genetic diversity may be affected in parallel by similar environmental drivers. However, genetic diversity may also be affected independently by habitat characteristics. We aim at disentangling relationships between genetic diversity, species diversity and habitat characteristics of woody species in subtropical forest. Methods: We studied 11 dominant tree and shrub species in 27 plots in Gutianshan, China, and assessed their genetic diversity (Ar) and population differentiation (F’ST) with microsatellite markers. We tested if Ar and population specific F’ST were correlated to local species diversity and plot characteristics. Multi-model inference and model averaging were used to determine the relative importance of each predictor. Additionally we tested for isolation-by-distance and isolation-by-elevation by regressing pairwise F’ST against pairwise spatial and elevational distances. Important findings: Genetic diversity was not related to species diversity for any of the study species. Thus, our results do not support joint effects of habitat characteristics on these two levels of biodiversity. Instead, genetic diversity in two understory shrubs, Rhododendron simsii and Vaccinium carlesii, was affected by plot age with decreasing genetic diversity in successionally older plots. Population differentiation increased with plot age in Rhododendron simsii and Lithocarpus glaber. This shows that succession can reduce genetic diversity within, and increase genetic diversity between populations. Furthermore, we found four cases of isolation-by-distance and two cases of isolation-by-elevation. The former indicates inefficient pollen and seed dispersal by animals whereas the latter might be due to phenological asynchronies. These patterns indicate that succession can affect genetic diversity without parallel effects on species diversity and that gene flow in a continuous subtropical forest can be restricted even at a local scale.

Alpha- versus beta-particle radiopeptide therapy in a human prostate cancer model (213Bi-DOTA-PESIN and 213Bi-AMBA versus 177Lu-DOTA-PESIN)

Recurrent prostate cancer presents a challenge to conventional treatment, particularly so to address micrometastatic and small-volume disease. Use of α-radionuclide therapy is considered as a highly effective treatment in such applications due to the shorter range and exquisite cytotoxicity of α-particles as compared with β-particles. (213)Bi is considered an α-emitter with high clinical potential, due to its short half-life (45.6 minutes) being well matched for use in peptide-receptor radionuclide α-therapy; however, there is limited knowledge available within this context of use. In this study, two novel (213)Bi-labeled peptides, DOTA-PEG(4)-bombesin (DOTA-PESIN) and DO3A-CH(2)CO-8-aminooctanoyl-Q-W-A-V-G-H-L-M-NH(2) (AMBA), were compared with (177)Lu (β-emitter)-labeled DOTA-PESIN in a human androgen-independent prostate carcinoma xenograft model (PC-3 tumor). Animals were injected with (177)Lu-DOTA-PESIN, (213)Bi-DOTA-PESIN, or (213)Bi-AMBA to determine the maximum tolerated dose (MTD), biodistribution, and dosimetry of each agent; controls were left untreated or were given nonradioactive (175)Lu-DOTA-PESIN. The MTD of (213)Bi-DOTA-PESIN and (213)Bi-AMBA was 25 MBq (0.68 mCi) whereas (177)Lu-DOTA-PESIN showed an MTD of 112 MBq (3 mCi). At these dose levels, (213)Bi-DOTA-PESIN and (213)Bi-AMBA were significantly more effective than (177)Lu-DOTA-PESIN. At the same time, (177)Lu-DOTA-PESIN showed minimal, (213)Bi-DOTA-PESIN slight, and (213)Bi-AMBA marked kidney damage 20 to 30 weeks posttreatment. These preclinical data indicate that α-therapy with (213)Bi-DOTA-PESIN or (213)Bi-AMBA is more efficacious than β-therapy. Furthermore, (213)Bi-DOTA-PESIN has a better safety profile than (213)Bi-AMBA, and represents a possible new approach for use in peptide-receptor radionuclide α-therapy treating recurrent prostate cancer.

Dephosphorylation of p-ERK1/2 in relation to tumor remission after HER-2 and Raf1 blocking therapy in a conditional mouse tumor model

Several studies have shown that HER-2/neu (erbB-2) blocking therapy strategies can cause tumor remission. However, the responsible molecular mechanisms are not yet known. Both ERK1/2 and Akt/PKB are critical for HER-2-mediated signal transduction. Therefore, we used a mouse tumor model that allows downregulation of HER-2 in tumor tissue by administration of anhydrotetracycline (ATc). Switching-off HER-2 caused a rapid tumor remission by more than 95% within 7 d of ATc administration compared to the volume before switching-off HER-2. Interestingly, HER-2 downregulation caused a dephosphorylation of p-ERK1/2 by more than 80% already before tumor remission occurred. Levels of total ERK protein were not influenced. In contrast, dephosphorylation of p-Akt occurred later, when the tumor was already in remission. These data suggest that in our HER-2 tumor model dephosphorylation of p-ERK1/2 may be more critical for tumor remission than dephosphorylation of p-Akt. To test this hypothesis we used a second mouse tumor model that allows ATc controlled expression of BXB-Raf1 because the latter constitutively signals to ERK1/2, but cannot activate Akt/PKB. As expected, downregulation of BXB-Raf1 in tumor tissue caused a strong dephosphorylation of p-ERK1/2, but did not decrease levels of p-Akt. Interestingly, tumor remission after switching-off BXB-Raf1 was similarly efficient as the effect of HER-2 downregulation, despite the lack of p-Akt dephosphorylation. In conclusion, two lines of evidence strongly suggest that dephosphorylation of p-ERK1/2 and not that of p-Akt is critical for the rapid tumor remission after downregulation of HER-2 or BXB-Raf1 in our tumor model: (i) dephosphorylation of p-ERK1/2 but not that of p-Akt precedes tumor remission after switching-off HER-2 and (ii) downregulation of BXB-Raf1 leads to a similarly efficient tumor remission as downregulation of HER-2, although no p-Akt dephosphorylation was observed after switching-off BXB-Raf1.

A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men

BACKGROUND: Many HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) experience metabolic complications including dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance, which may increase their coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We developed a prognostic model for CHD tailored to the changes in risk factors observed in patients starting HAART. METHODS: Data from five cohort studies (British Regional Heart Study, Caerphilly and Speedwell Studies, Framingham Offspring Study, Whitehall II) on 13,100 men aged 40-70 and 114,443 years of follow up were used. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction or death from CHD. Model fit was assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion; generalizability across cohorts was examined using internal-external cross-validation. RESULTS: A parametric model based on the Gompertz distribution generalized best. Variables included in the model were systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, diabetes mellitus, body mass index and smoking status. Compared with patients not on HAART, the estimated CHD hazard ratio (HR) for patients on HAART was 1.46 (95% CI 1.15-1.86) for moderate and 2.48 (95% CI 1.76-3.51) for severe metabolic complications. CONCLUSIONS: The change in the risk of CHD in HIV-infected men starting HAART can be estimated based on typical changes in risk factors, assuming that HRs estimated using data from non-infected men are applicable to HIV-infected men. Based on this model the risk of CHD is likely to increase, but increases may often be modest, and could be offset by lifestyle changes.

Up-regulation of somatostatin receptor density on rat CA20948 tumors escaped from low dose [(177)Lu-DOTA(0),Tyr(3)]octreotate therapy

AIM: Peptide receptor radionuclide therapy using the somatostatin analogue [(177)Lu-DOTA(0),Tyr(3)]octreotate is a convincing treatment modality for metastasized neuroendocrine tumors. Therapeutic doses are administered in 4 cycles with 6-10 week intervals. A high somatostatin receptor density on tumor cells is a prerequisite at every administration to enable effective therapy. In this study, the density of the somatostatin receptor subtype 2 (sst2) was investigated in the rat CA20948 pancreatic tumor model after low dose [(177)Lu-DOTA(0), Tyr(3)]octreotate administration resulting in approximately 20 Gy tumor radiation absorbed dose, whereas 60 Gy is needed to induce complete tumor regression in these and the majority of tumors. METHODS: Sixteen days after inoculation of the CA20948 tumor, male Lewis rats were injected with 185 MBq [(177)Lu-DOTA(0),Tyr(3)]octreotate to initiate a decline in tumor size. Approximately 40 days after injection, tumors re-grew progressively after initial response. Quantification of sst2 expression was performed using in vitro autoradiography on frozen sections of three groups: control (not-treated) tumors, tumors in regression and tumors in re-growth. Histology and proliferation were determined using HE- and anti-Ki-67-staining. RESULTS: The sst2 expression on CA20948 tumor cells decreased significantly after therapy to 5% of control level. However, tumors escaping from therapy showed an up-regulated sst2 level of 2-5 times higher sst2 density compared to control tumors. CONCLUSION: After a suboptimal therapeutic dose of [(177)Lu-DOTA(0),Tyr(3)]octreotate, escape of tumors is likely to occur. Since these cells show an up-regulated sst2 receptor density, a next therapeutic administration of radiolabelled sst2 analogue can be expected to be highly effective.

Pharmacodynamics of antibiotics in the therapy of meningitis: infection model observations

Detailed studies of pharmacodynamic principles relevant to the therapy of bacterial meningitis are difficult to perform in man, while the rabbit model of bacterial meningitis has proved to be extremely valuable and has led to insights that appear relevant for the treatment of humans. Most importantly in the light of the restricted penetration of antibiotics into the CSF, animal studies have shown that in meningitis there is a dose-response curve between the CSF concentrations achieved by antibiotics and their bactericidal activity. This appears to be true for all classes of antibiotics thus far examined, including the beta-lactams, which do not show such a dose-response behaviour in other infections. Only CSF concentrations that exceed the MBC of the infecting organism by at least 10-30-fold achieve consistent and rapid bactericidal activity. Such rapid bactericidal activity is a requirement for successful therapy with beta-lactams and can be impaired with certain antibiotics by the specific conditions in infected CSF (protein content; acidic pH; slow-growing bacteria). However, rapid antibiotic killing of the infecting organisms may not be without adverse effects either. Some antibiotics, particularly beta-lactams lead to the brisk liberation of bacterial cell wall components (e.g. endotoxin, in the case of Gram-negative organisms) which have an inflammatory effect on the host and can lead to a temporary deterioration of the disease. Dexamethasone, when administered with the antibiotic, can prevent some of the adverse effects of rapid bacterial lysis.

Phage lytic enzyme Cpl-1 for antibacterial therapy in experimental pneumococcal meningitis

Treatment of bacterial meningitis caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae is increasingly difficult, because of emerging resistance to antibiotics. Recombinant Cpl-1, a phage lysin specific for S. pneumoniae, was evaluated for antimicrobial therapy in experimental pneumococcal meningitis using infant Wistar rats. A single intracisternal injection (20 mg/kg) of Cpl-1 resulted in a rapid (within 30 min) decrease in pneumococci in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) by 3 orders of magnitude lasting for 2 h. Intraperitoneal administration of Cpl-1 (200 mg/kg) led to an antibacterial effect in CSF of 2 orders of magnitude for 3 h. Cpl-1 may hold promise as an alternative treatment option in pneumococcal meningitis.