Colonization history of the Swiss Rhine basin by the bullhead (Cottus gobio): inference under a Bayesian spatially explicit framework

The present distribution of freshwater fish in the Alpine region has been strongly affected by colonization events occurring after the last glacial maximum (LGM), some 20,000 years ago. We use here a spatially explicit simulation framework to model and better understand their colonization dynamics in the Swiss Rhine basin. This approach is applied to the European bullhead (Cottus gobio), which is an ideal model organism to study fish past demographic processes since it has not been managed by humans. The molecular diversity of eight sampled populations is simulated and compared to observed data at six microsatellite loci under an approximate Bayesian computation framework to estimate the parameters of the colonization process. Our demographic estimates fit well with current knowledge about the biology of this species, but they suggest that the Swiss Rhine basin was colonized very recently, after the Younger Dryas some 6600 years ago. We discuss the implication of this result, as well as the strengths and limits of the spatially explicit approach coupled to the approximate Bayesian computation framework.

Operationalizing ecosystem services for the mitigation of soil threats: A proposed framework

Despite numerous research efforts over the last decades, integrating the concept of ecosystem servicesinto land management decision-making continues to pose considerable challenges. Researchers havedeveloped many different frameworks to operationalize the concept, but these are often specific to acertain issue and each has their own definitions and understandings of particular terms. Based on acomprehensive review of the current scientific debate, the EU FP7 project RECARE proposes an adaptedframework for soil-related ecosystem services that is suited for practical application in the preventionand remediation of soil degradation across Europe. We have adapted existing frameworks by integratingcomponents from soil science while attempting to introduce a consistent terminology that is understand-able to a variety of stakeholders. RECARE aims to assess how soil threats and prevention and remediationmeasures affect ecosystem services. Changes in the natural capital’s properties influence soil processes,which support the provision of ecosystem services. The benefits produced by these ecosystem servicesare explicitly or implicitly valued by individuals and society. This can influence decision- and policymak-ing at different scales, potentially leading to a societal response, such as improved land management.The proposed ecosystem services framework will be applied by the RECARE project in a transdisciplinaryprocess. It will assist in singling out the most beneficial land management measures and in identifyingtrade-offs and win–win situations resulting from and impacted by European policies. The framework thusreflects the specific contributions soils make to ecosystem services and helps reveal changes in ecosystemservices caused by soil management and policies impacting on soil. At the same time, the framework issimple and robust enough for practical application in assessing soil threats and their management withstakeholders at various levels.

Reasons for ordering computed tomography scans of the head in patients with minor brain injury

Minor brain injury is a frequent condition. Validated clinical decision rules can help in deciding whether a computed tomogram (CT) of the head is required. We hypothesized that institutional guidelines are not frequently used, and that psychological factors are a common reason for ordering an unnecessary CT.

Reviving extinct Mediterranean forest communities may improve ecosystem potential in a warmer future

The Mediterranean Basin is the region of Europe most vulnerable to negative climate-change impacts, including forest decline, increased wildfire, and biodiversity loss. Because humans have affected Mediterranean ecosystems for millennia, it is unclear whether the region's native ecosystems were more resilient to climate change than current ecosystems, and whether they would provide sustainable management options if restored. We simulated vegetation with the LandClim model, using present-day climate as well as future climate-change scenarios, in three representative areas that encompass a broad range of Mediterranean conditions and vegetation types. Sedimentary pollen records that document now-extinct forests help to validate the simulations. Forests modeled under present climate closely resemble the extinct forests when human disturbance is limited; under future scenarios, characterized by increased temperatures and decreased precipitation, extinct forests are projected to re-emerge. When combined with modeling, paleoecological evidence reveals the potential of native vegetation to re-establish under current and future climate conditions, and provides a template for novel management strategies to maintain forest productivity and biodiversity in a warmer and drier future.

Detection of convergent genome-wide signals of adaptation to tropical forests in humans

Tropical forests are believed to be very harsh environments for human life. It is unclear whether human beings would have ever subsisted in those environments without external resources. It is therefore possible that humans have developed recent biological adaptations in response to specific selective pressures to cope with this challenge. To understand such biological adaptations we analyzed genome-wide SNP data under a Bayesian statistics framework, looking for outlier markers with an overly large extent of differentiation between populations living in a tropical forest, as compared to genetically related populations living outside the forest in Africa and the Americas. The most significant positive selection signals were found in genes related to lipid metabolism, the immune system, body development, and RNA Polymerase III transcription initiation. The results are discussed in the light of putative tropical forest selective pressures, namely food scarcity, high prevalence of pathogens, difficulty to move, and inefficient thermoregulation. Agreement between our results and previous studies on the pygmy phenotype, a putative prototype of forest adaptation, were found, suggesting that a few genetic regions previously described as associated with short stature may be evolving under similar positive selection in Africa and the Americas. In general, convergent evolution was less pervasive than local adaptation in one single continent, suggesting that Africans and Amerindians may have followed different routes to adapt to similar environmental selective pressures.

How exclusive is assembly democracy? Citizens assembly and ballot participation compared

This paper analyses the difference between two specific forms of citizens’ involvements, namely whether a vote is cast by ballot or in a citizens’ assembly in which people gather in town halls to decide legislative questions in a deliberative manner. We show both theoretically and empirically how citizens’ assemblies and decisions at the ballot box substantially differ not only in terms of their underlying model of democracy, but also in their structural conditions and, thus, with respect to the social inequality of participation. We test our hypotheses in a Bayesian multilevel framework using real participation data collected from 15 political decisions made in a Swiss commune. Our results show that citizens’ assemblies are not only characterised by lower participation rates, but also by a particular composition of the electorate. While citizens’ assemblies are more equal regarding income groups, ballots favour a more equitable participation in terms of gender and age.

Benchmarking in the SWISSspine registry: results of 52 Dynardi lumbar total disc replacements compared with the data pool of 431 other lumbar disc prostheses

The SWISSspine registry is the first mandatory registry of its kind in the history of Swiss orthopaedics and it follows the principle of "coverage with evidence development". Its goal is the generation of evidence for a decision by the Swiss federal office of health about reimbursement of the concerned technologies and treatments by the basic health insurance of Switzerland. Recently, developed and clinically implemented, the Dynardi total disc arthroplasty (TDA) accounted for 10% of the implanted lumbar TDAs in the registry. We compared the outcomes of patients treated with Dynardi to those of the recipients of the other TDAs in the registry. Between March 2005 and October 2009, 483 patients with single-level TDA were documented in the registry. The 52 patients with a single Dynardi lumbar disc prosthesis implanted by two surgeons (CE and OS) were compared to the 431 patients who received one of the other prostheses. Data were collected in a prospective, observational multicenter mode. Surgery, implant, 3-month, 1-year, and 2-year follow-up forms as well as comorbidity, NASS and EQ-5D questionnaires were collected. For statistical analyses, the Wilcoxon signed-rank test and chi-square test were used. Multivariate regression analyses were also performed. Significant and clinically relevant reduction of low back pain and leg pain as well as improvement in quality of life was seen in both groups (P < 0.001 postop vs. preop). There were no inter-group differences regarding postoperative pain levels, intraoperative and follow-up complications or revision procedures with a new hospitalization. However, significantly more Dynardi patients achieved a minimum clinically relevant low back pain alleviation of 18 VAS points and a quality of life improvement of 0.25 EQ-5D points. The patients with Dynardi prosthesis showed a similar outcome to patients receiving the other TDAs in terms of postoperative low back and leg pain, complications, and revision procedures. A higher likelihood for achieving a minimum clinically relevant improvement of low back pain and quality of life in Dynardi patients was observed. This difference might be due to the large number of surgeons using other TDAs compared to only two surgeons using the Dynardi TDA, with corresponding variations in patient selection, patient-physician interaction and other factors, which cannot be assessed in a registry study.

E-Health towards ecumenical framework for personalized medicine via Decision Support System

The purpose of the present manuscript is to present the advances performed in medicine using a Personalized Decision Support System (PDSS). The models used in Decision Support Systems (DSS) are examined in combination with Genome Information and Biomarkers to produce personalized result for each individual. The concept of personalize medicine is described in depth and application of PDSS for Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) and Type-1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM) are analyzed. Parameters extracted from genes, biomarkers, nutrition habits, lifestyle and biological measurements feed DSSs, incorporating Artificial Intelligence Modules (AIM), to provide personalized advice, medication and treatment.

Driving and dementia: a clinical decision pathway

OBJECTIVE This study aimed to develop a pathway to bring together current UK legislation, good clinical practice and appropriate management strategies that could be applied across a range of healthcare settings. METHODS The pathway was constructed by a multidisciplinary clinical team based in a busy Memory Assessment Service. A process of successive iteration was used to develop the pathway, with input and refinement provided via survey and small group meetings with individuals from a wide range of regional clinical networks and diverse clinical backgrounds as well as discussion with mobility centres and Forum of Mobility Centres, UK. RESULTS We present a succinct clinical pathway for patients with dementia, which provides a decision-making framework for how health professionals across a range of disciplines deal with patients with dementia who drive. CONCLUSIONS By integrating the latest guidance from diverse roles within older people's health services and key experts in the field, the resulting pathway reflects up-to-date policy and encompasses differing perspectives and good practice. It is potentially a generalisable pathway that can be easily adaptable for use internationally, by replacing UK legislation for local regulations. A limitation of this pathway is that it does not address the concern of mild cognitive impairment and how this condition relates to driving safety. © 2014 The Authors. International Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A framework for benchmarking of homogenisation algorithm performance on the global scale

The International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) is striving towards substantively improving our ability to robustly understand historical land surface air temperature change at all scales. A key recently completed first step has been collating all available records into a comprehensive open access, traceable and version-controlled databank. The crucial next step is to maximise the value of the collated data through a robust international framework of benchmarking and assessment for product intercomparison and uncertainty estimation. We focus on uncertainties arising from the presence of inhomogeneities in monthly mean land surface temperature data and the varied methodological choices made by various groups in building homogeneous temperature products. The central facet of the benchmarking process is the creation of global-scale synthetic analogues to the real-world database where both the "true" series and inhomogeneities are known (a luxury the real-world data do not afford us). Hence, algorithmic strengths and weaknesses can be meaningfully quantified and conditional inferences made about the real-world climate system. Here we discuss the necessary framework for developing an international homogenisation benchmarking system on the global scale for monthly mean temperatures. The value of this framework is critically dependent upon the number of groups taking part and so we strongly advocate involvement in the benchmarking exercise from as many data analyst groups as possible to make the best use of this substantial effort.

Benchmarking the Bayesian reconstruction of the non-perturbative heavy ǪǬ potential

The extraction of the finite temperature heavy quark potential from lattice QCD relies on a spectral analysis of the real-time Wilson loop. Through its position and shape, the lowest lying spectral peak encodes the real and imaginary part of this complex potential. We benchmark this extraction strategy using leading order hard-thermal loop (HTL) calculations. I.e. we analytically calculate the Wilson loop and determine the corresponding spectrum. By fitting its lowest lying peak we obtain the real- and imaginary part and confirm that the knowledge of the lowest peak alone is sufficient for obtaining the potential. We deploy a novel Bayesian approach to the reconstruction of spectral functions to HTL correlators in Euclidean time and observe how well the known spectral function and values for the real and imaginary part are reproduced. Finally we apply the method to quenched lattice QCD data and perform an improved estimate of both real and imaginary part of the non-perturbative heavy ǪǬ potential.

A proposed framework to operationalize ESS for the mitigation of soil threats

Despite various research activities in the last decades across the world, many challenges remain to integrate the concept of ecosystem services (ESS) in decision-making, and a coherent approach to assess and value ESS is still lacking. There are a lot of different – often context-specific – ESS frameworks with their own definitions and understanding of terms. Based on a thorough review, the EU FP7 project RECARE (www.recare-project.eu) suggests an adapted framework for ecosystem services related to soils that can be used for practical application in preventing and remediating degradation of soils in Europe. This lays the foundation for the development and selection of appropriate methods to measure, evaluate, communicate and negotiate the services we obtain from soils with stakeholders in order to improve land management. Similar to many ESS frameworks, the RECARE framework distinguishes between an ecosystem and human well-being part. As the RECARE project is focused on soil threats, this is the starting point on the ecosystem part of the framework. Soil threats affect natural capital, such as soil, water, vegetation, air and animals, and are in turn influenced by those. Within the natural capital, the RECARE framework focuses especially on soil and its properties, classified in inherent and manageable properties. The natural capital then enables and underpins soil processes, while at the same time being affected by those. Soil processes, finally, are the ecosystem’s capacity to provide services, thus they support the provision of soil functions and ESS. ESS may be utilized to produce benefits for individuals and human society. Those benefits are explicitly or implicitly valued by individuals and human society. The values placed on those benefits influence policy and decision-making and thus lead to a societal response. Individual (e.g. farmers’) and societal decision making and policy determine land management and other (human) driving forces, which in turn affect soil threats and natural capital. In order to improve ESS with Sustainable Land Management (SLM) – i.e. measures aimed to prevent or remediate soil threats, the services identified in the framework need to be “manageable” (modifiable) for the stakeholders. To this end, effects of soil threats and prevention / remediation measures are captured by key soil properties as well as through bio-physical (e.g. reduced soil loss), socio-economic (e.g. reduced workload) and socio-cultural (e.g. aesthetics) impact indicators. In order to use such indicators in RECARE, it should be possible to associate the changes in soil processes to impacts of prevention / remediation measures (SLM). This requires the indicators to be sensitive enough to small changes, but still sufficiently robust to provide evidence of the change and attribute it to SLM.