Daytime Low Stratiform Cloud Detection on AVHRR Imagery

The near-real time retrieval of low stratiform cloud (LSC) coverage is of vital interest for such disciplines as meteorology, transport safety, economy and air quality. Within this scope, a novel methodology is proposed which provides the LSC occurrence probability estimates for a satellite scene. The algorithm is suited for the 1 × 1 km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data and was trained and validated against collocated SYNOP observations. Utilisation of these two combined data sources requires a formulation of constraints in order to discriminate cases where the LSC is overlaid by higher clouds. The LSC classification process is based on six features which are first converted to the integer form by step functions and combined by means of bitwise operations. Consequently, a set of values reflecting a unique combination of those features is derived which is further employed to extract the LSC occurrence probability estimates from the precomputed look-up vectors (LUV). Although the validation analyses confirmed good performance of the algorithm, some inevitable misclassification with other optically thick clouds were reported. Moreover, the comparison against Polar Platform System (PPS) cloud-type product revealed superior classification accuracy. From the temporal perspective, the acquired results reported a presence of diurnal and annual LSC probability cycles over Europe.

Multiplicity of data in trial reports and the reliability of meta-analyses: empirical study

Objectives To examine the extent of multiplicity of data in trial reports and to assess the impact of multiplicity on meta-analysis results. Design Empirical study on a cohort of Cochrane systematic reviews. Data sources All Cochrane systematic reviews published from issue 3 in 2006 to issue 2 in 2007 that presented a result as a standardised mean difference (SMD). We retrieved trial reports contributing to the first SMD result in each review, and downloaded review protocols. We used these SMDs to identify a specific outcome for each meta-analysis from its protocol. Review methods Reviews were eligible if SMD results were based on two to ten randomised trials and if protocols described the outcome. We excluded reviews if they only presented results of subgroup analyses. Based on review protocols and index outcomes, two observers independently extracted the data necessary to calculate SMDs from the original trial reports for any intervention group, time point, or outcome measure compatible with the protocol. From the extracted data, we used Monte Carlo simulations to calculate all possible SMDs for every meta-analysis. Results We identified 19 eligible meta-analyses (including 83 trials). Published review protocols often lacked information about which data to choose. Twenty-four (29%) trials reported data for multiple intervention groups, 30 (36%) reported data for multiple time points, and 29 (35%) reported the index outcome measured on multiple scales. In 18 meta-analyses, we found multiplicity of data in at least one trial report; the median difference between the smallest and largest SMD results within a meta-analysis was 0.40 standard deviation units (range 0.04 to 0.91). Conclusions Multiplicity of data can affect the findings of systematic reviews and meta-analyses. To reduce the risk of bias, reviews and meta-analyses should comply with prespecified protocols that clearly identify time points, intervention groups, and scales of interest.

Accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging for the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis: systematic review

OBJECTIVE: To determine the accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging criteria for the early diagnosis of multiple sclerosis in patients with suspected disease. DESIGN: Systematic review. DATA SOURCES: 12 electronic databases, citation searches, and reference lists of included studies. Review methods Studies on accuracy of diagnosis that compared magnetic resonance imaging, or diagnostic criteria incorporating such imaging, to a reference standard for the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis. RESULTS: 29 studies (18 cohort studies, 11 other designs) were included. On average, studies of other designs (mainly diagnostic case-control studies) produced higher estimated diagnostic odds ratios than did cohort studies. Among 15 studies of higher methodological quality (cohort design, clinical follow-up as reference standard), those with longer follow-up produced higher estimates of specificity and lower estimates of sensitivity. Only two such studies followed patients for more than 10 years. Even in the presence of many lesions (> 10 or > 8), magnetic resonance imaging could not accurately rule multiple sclerosis in (likelihood ratio of a positive test result 3.0 and 2.0, respectively). Similarly, the absence of lesions was of limited utility in ruling out a diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (likelihood ratio of a negative test result 0.1 and 0.5). CONCLUSIONS: Many evaluations of the accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging for the early detection of multiple sclerosis have produced inflated estimates of test performance owing to methodological weaknesses. Use of magnetic resonance imaging to confirm multiple sclerosis on the basis of a single attack of neurological dysfunction may lead to over-diagnosis and over-treatment.

Prenatal diagnosis and treatment planning of congenital heart defects-possibilities and limits

BACKGROUND: Newborns with hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS) or right heart syndrome or other malformations with a single ventricle physiology and associated hypoplasia of the great arteries continue to be a challenge in terms of survival. The vast majority of these forms of congenital heart defects relate to abnormal morphogenesis during early intrauterine development and can be diagnosed accurately by fetal echocardiography. Early knowledge of these conditions not only permits a better understanding of the progression of these malformations but encourages some researchers to explore new minimally invasive therapeutic options with a view to early pre- and postnatal cardiac palliation. DATA SOURCES: PubMed database was searched with terms of "congenital heart defects", "fetal echocardiography" and "neonatal cardiac surgery". RESULTS: At present, early prenatal detection has been applied for monitoring pregnancy to avoid intrauterine cardiac decompensation. In principle, the majority of congenital heart defects can be diagnosed by prenatal echocardiography and the detection rate is 85%-95% at tertiary perinatal centers. The majority, particularly of complex congenital lesions, show a steadily progressive course including subsequent secondary phenomena such as arrhythmias or myocardial insufficiency. So prenatal treatment of an abnormal fetus is an area of perinatal medicine that is undergoing a very dynamic development. Early postnatal treatment is established for some time, and prenatal intervention or palliation is at its best experimental stage in individual cases. CONCLUSION: The upcoming expansion of fetal cardiac intervention to ameliorate critically progressive fetal lesions intensifies the need to address issues about the adequacy of technological assessment and patient selection as well as the morbidity of those who undergo these procedures.

3G network traffic sources measurement and analysis

In this paper, we show statistical analyses of several types of traffic sources in a 3G network, namely voice, video and data sources. For each traffic source type, measurements were collected in order to, on the one hand, gain better understanding of the statistical characteristics of the sources and, on the other hand, enable forecasting traffic behaviour in the network. The latter can be used to estimate service times and quality of service parameters. The probability density function, mean, variance, mean square deviation, skewness and kurtosis of the interarrival times are estimated by Wolfram Mathematica and Crystal Ball statistical tools. Based on evaluation of packet interarrival times, we show how the gamma distribution can be used in network simulations and in evaluation of available capacity in opportunistic systems. As a result, from our analyses, shape and scale parameters of gamma distribution are generated. Data can be applied also in dynamic network configuration in order to avoid potential network congestions or overflows. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A new methodological protocol for the use of dendrogeomorphological data in flood risk analysis

Dendrogeomorphology uses information sources recorded in the roots, trunks and branches of trees and bushes located in the fluvial system to complement (or sometimes even replace) systematic and palaeohydrological records of past floods. The application of dendrogeomorphic data sources and methods to palaeoflood analysis over nearly 40 years has allowed improvements to be made in frequency and magnitude estimations of past floods. Nevertheless, research carried out so far has shown that the dendrogeomorphic indicators traditionally used (mainly scar evidence), and their use to infer frequency and magnitude, have been restricted to a small, limited set of applications. New possibilities with enormous potential remain unexplored. New insights in future research of palaeoflood frequency and magnitude using dendrogeomorphic data sources should: (1) test the application of isotopic indicators (16O/18O ratio) to discover the meteorological origin of past floods; (2) use different dendrogeomorphic indicators to estimate peak flows with 2D (and 3D) hydraulic models and study how they relate to other palaeostage indicators; (3) investigate improved calibration of 2D hydraulic model parameters (roughness); and (4) apply statistics-based cost–benefit analysis to select optimal mitigation measures. This paper presents an overview of these innovative methodologies, with a focus on their capabilities and limitations in the reconstruction of recent floods and palaeofloods.

Thyroid antibody status, subclinical hypothyroidism, and the risk of coronary heart disease: an individual participant data analysis.

CONTEXT Subclinical hypothyroidism has been associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), particularly with thyrotropin levels of 10.0 mIU/L or greater. The measurement of thyroid antibodies helps predict the progression to overt hypothyroidism, but it is unclear whether thyroid autoimmunity independently affects CHD risk. OBJECTIVE The objective of the study was to compare the CHD risk of subclinical hypothyroidism with and without thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAbs). DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION A MEDLINE and EMBASE search from 1950 to 2011 was conducted for prospective cohorts, reporting baseline thyroid function, antibodies, and CHD outcomes. DATA EXTRACTION Individual data of 38 274 participants from six cohorts for CHD mortality followed up for 460 333 person-years and 33 394 participants from four cohorts for CHD events. DATA SYNTHESIS Among 38 274 adults (median age 55 y, 63% women), 1691 (4.4%) had subclinical hypothyroidism, of whom 775 (45.8%) had positive TPOAbs. During follow-up, 1436 participants died of CHD and 3285 had CHD events. Compared with euthyroid individuals, age- and gender-adjusted risks of CHD mortality in subclinical hypothyroidism were similar among individuals with and without TPOAbs [hazard ratio (HR) 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87-1.53 vs HR 1.26, CI 1.01-1.58, P for interaction = .62], as were risks of CHD events (HR 1.16, CI 0.87-1.56 vs HR 1.26, CI 1.02-1.56, P for interaction = .65). Risks of CHD mortality and events increased with higher thyrotropin, but within each stratum, risks did not differ by TPOAb status. CONCLUSIONS CHD risk associated with subclinical hypothyroidism did not differ by TPOAb status, suggesting that biomarkers of thyroid autoimmunity do not add independent prognostic information for CHD outcomes.

A practical approach to designing syndromic surveillance systems for livestock and poultry

The field of animal syndromic surveillance (SyS) is growing, with many systems being developed worldwide. Now is an appropriate time to share ideas and lessons learned from early SyS design and implementation. Based on our practical experience in animal health SyS, with additions from the public health and animal health SyS literature, we put forward for discussion a 6-step approach to designing SyS systems for livestock and poultry. The first step is to formalise policy and surveillance goals which are considerate of stakeholder expectations and reflect priority issues (1). Next, it is important to find consensus on national priority diseases and identify current surveillance gaps. The geographic, demographic, and temporal coverage of the system must be carefully assessed (2). A minimum dataset for SyS that includes the essential data to achieve all surveillance objectives while minimizing the amount of data collected should be defined. One can then compile an inventory of the data sources available and evaluate each using the criteria developed (3). A list of syndromes should then be produced for all data sources. Cases can be classified into syndrome classes and the data can be converted into time series (4). Based on the characteristics of the syndrome-time series, the length of historic data available and the type of outbreaks the system must detect, different aberration detection algorithms can be tested (5). Finally, it is essential to develop a minimally acceptable response protocol for each statistical signal produced (6). Important outcomes of this pre-operational phase should be building of a national network of experts and collective action and evaluation plans. While some of the more applied steps (4 and 5) are currently receiving consideration, more emphasis should be put on earlier conceptual steps by decision makers and surveillance developers (1-3).

Improved methods for measuring forest landscape structure: LiDAR complements field-based habitat assessment

Conservation and monitoring of forest biodiversity requires reliable information about forest structure and composition at multiple spatial scales. However, detailed data about forest habitat characteristics across large areas are often incomplete due to difficulties associated with field sampling methods. To overcome this limitation we employed a nationally available light detection and ranging (LiDAR) remote sensing dataset to develop variables describing forest landscape structure across a large environmental gradient in Switzerland. Using a model species indicative of structurally rich mountain forests (hazel grouse Bonasa bonasia), we tested the potential of such variables to predict species occurrence and evaluated the additional benefit of LiDAR data when used in combination with traditional, sample plot-based field variables. We calibrated boosted regression trees (BRT) models for both variable sets separately and in combination, and compared the models’ accuracies. While both field-based and LiDAR models performed well, combining the two data sources improved the accuracy of the species’ habitat model. The variables retained from the two datasets held different types of information: field variables mostly quantified food resources and cover in the field and shrub layer, LiDAR variables characterized heterogeneity of vegetation structure which correlated with field variables describing the understory and ground vegetation. When combined with data on forest vegetation composition from field surveys, LiDAR provides valuable complementary information for encompassing species niches more comprehensively. Thus, LiDAR bridges the gap between precise, locally restricted field-data and coarse digital land cover information by reliably identifying habitat structure and quality across large areas.

Subclinical Hypothyroidism and the Risk of Stroke Events and Fatal Stroke: An Individual Participant Data Analysis

OBJECTIVE The objective was to determine the risk of stroke associated with subclinical hypothyroidism. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION Published prospective cohort studies were identified through a systematic search through November 2013 without restrictions in several databases. Unpublished studies were identified through the Thyroid Studies Collaboration. We collected individual participant data on thyroid function and stroke outcome. Euthyroidism was defined as TSH levels of 0.45-4.49 mIU/L, and subclinical hypothyroidism was defined as TSH levels of 4.5-19.9 mIU/L with normal T4 levels. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS We collected individual participant data on 47 573 adults (3451 subclinical hypothyroidism) from 17 cohorts and followed up from 1972-2014 (489 192 person-years). Age- and sex-adjusted pooled hazard ratios (HRs) for participants with subclinical hypothyroidism compared to euthyroidism were 1.05 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91-1.21) for stroke events (combined fatal and nonfatal stroke) and 1.07 (95% CI, 0.80-1.42) for fatal stroke. Stratified by age, the HR for stroke events was 3.32 (95% CI, 1.25-8.80) for individuals aged 18-49 years. There was an increased risk of fatal stroke in the age groups 18-49 and 50-64 years, with a HR of 4.22 (95% CI, 1.08-16.55) and 2.86 (95% CI, 1.31-6.26), respectively (p trend 0.04). We found no increased risk for those 65-79 years old (HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.86-1.18) or ≥ 80 years old (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.79-2.18). There was a pattern of increased risk of fatal stroke with higher TSH concentrations. CONCLUSIONS Although no overall effect of subclinical hypothyroidism on stroke could be demonstrated, an increased risk in subjects younger than 65 years and those with higher TSH concentrations was observed.

Benign neonatal sleep myoclonus: a review of the literature

OBJECTIVE: Neurologically normal term infants sometimes present with repetitive, rhythmic myoclonic jerks that occur during sleep. The condition, which is traditionally resolved by 3 months of age with no sequelae, is termed benign neonatal sleep myoclonus. The goal of this review was to synthesize the published literature on benign neonatal sleep myoclonus. METHODS: The US National Library of Medicine database and the Web-based search engine Google, through June 2009, were used as data sources. All articles published after the seminal description in 1982 as full-length articles or letters were collected. Reports that were published in languages other than English, French, German, Italian, Portuguese, or Spanish were not considered. RESULTS: We included 24 reports in which 164 term-born (96%) or near-term-born (4%) infants were described. Neonatal sleep myoclonus occurred in all sleep stages, disappeared after arousal, and was induced by rocking the infant or repetitive sound stimuli. Furthermore, in affected infants, jerks stopped or even worsened by holding the limbs or on medication with antiepileptic drugs. Finally, benign neonatal sleep myoclonus did not resolve by 3 months of age in one-third of the infants. CONCLUSIONS: This review provides new insights into the clinical features and natural course of benign neonatal sleep myoclonus. The most significant limitation of the review comes from the small number of reported cases.

Borrelia in granuloma annulare, morphea and lichen sclerosus: a PCR-based study and review of the literature

Morphea, granuloma annulare (GA) and lichen sclerosus et atrophicans (LSA) have also been suggested to be linked to Borrelia infection. Previous studies based on serologic data or detection of Borrelia by immunohistochemistry and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) reported contradictory results. Thus, we examined skin biopsies of morphea, GA and LSA by PCR to assess the prevalence of Borrelia DNA in an endemic area and to compare our results with data in the literature.

Small study effects in meta-analyses of osteoarthritis trials: meta-epidemiological study

Objective To examine the presence and extent of small study effects in clinical osteoarthritis research. Design Meta-epidemiological study. Data sources 13 meta-analyses including 153 randomised trials (41 605 patients) that compared therapeutic interventions with placebo or non-intervention control in patients with osteoarthritis of the hip or knee and used patients’ reported pain as an outcome. Methods We compared estimated benefits of treatment between large trials (at least 100 patients per arm) and small trials, explored funnel plots supplemented with lines of predicted effects and contours of significance, and used three approaches to estimate treatment effects: meta-analyses including all trials irrespective of sample size, meta-analyses restricted to large trials, and treatment effects predicted for large trials. Results On average, treatment effects were more beneficial in small than in large trials (difference in effect sizes −0.21, 95% confidence interval −0.34 to −0.08, P=0.001). Depending on criteria used, six to eight funnel plots indicated small study effects. In six of 13 meta-analyses, the overall pooled estimate suggested a clinically relevant, significant benefit of treatment, whereas analyses restricted to large trials and predicted effects in large trials yielded smaller non-significant estimates. Conclusions Small study effects can often distort results of meta-analyses. The influence of small trials on estimated treatment effects should be routinely assessed.

Effects of glucosamine, chondroitin, or placebo in patients with osteoarthritis of hip or knee: network meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of glucosamine, chondroitin, or the two in combination on joint pain and on radiological progression of disease in osteoarthritis of the hip or knee. Design Network meta-analysis. Direct comparisons within trials were combined with indirect evidence from other trials by using a Bayesian model that allowed the synthesis of multiple time points. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Pain intensity. Secondary outcome was change in minimal width of joint space. The minimal clinically important difference between preparations and placebo was prespecified at -0.9 cm on a 10 cm visual analogue scale. DATA SOURCES: Electronic databases and conference proceedings from inception to June 2009, expert contact, relevant websites. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Large scale randomised controlled trials in more than 200 patients with osteoarthritis of the knee or hip that compared glucosamine, chondroitin, or their combination with placebo or head to head. Results 10 trials in 3803 patients were included. On a 10 cm visual analogue scale the overall difference in pain intensity compared with placebo was -0.4 cm (95% credible interval -0.7 to -0.1 cm) for glucosamine, -0.3 cm (-0.7 to 0.0 cm) for chondroitin, and -0.5 cm (-0.9 to 0.0 cm) for the combination. For none of the estimates did the 95% credible intervals cross the boundary of the minimal clinically important difference. Industry independent trials showed smaller effects than commercially funded trials (P=0.02 for interaction). The differences in changes in minimal width of joint space were all minute, with 95% credible intervals overlapping zero. Conclusions Compared with placebo, glucosamine, chondroitin, and their combination do not reduce joint pain or have an impact on narrowing of joint space. Health authorities and health insurers should not cover the costs of these preparations, and new prescriptions to patients who have not received treatment should be discouraged.

Chlamydia infection, pelvic inflammatory disease, ectopic pregnancy and infertility: cross-national study

Objectives To describe, using routine data in selected countries, chlamydia control activities and rates of chlamydia infection, pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), ectopic pregnancy and infertility and to compare trends in chlamydia positivity with rates of PID and ectopic pregnancy. Methods Cross-national comparison including national data from Australia, Denmark, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden and Switzerland. Routine data sources about chlamydia diagnosis and testing and International Classification of Disease-10 coded diagnoses of PID, ectopic pregnancy and infertility in women aged 15–39 years from 1999 to 2008 were described. Trends over time and relevant associations were examined using Poisson regression. Results Opportunistic chlamydia testing was recommended in all countries except Switzerland, but target groups differed. Rates of chlamydia testing were highest in New Zealand. Chlamydia positivity was similar in all countries with available data (Denmark, New Zealand and Sweden) and increased over time. Increasing chlamydia positivity rates were associated with decreasing PID rates in Denmark and Sweden and with decreasing ectopic pregnancy rates in Denmark, New Zealand and Sweden. Ectopic pregnancy rates appeared to increase over time in 15–19-year-olds in several countries. Trends in infertility diagnoses were very variable. Conclusions The intensity of recommendations about chlamydia control varied between countries but was not consistently related to levels of chlamydia diagnosis or testing. Relationships between levels of chlamydia infection and complication rates between or within countries over time were not straightforward. Development and validation of indicators of chlamydia-related morbidity that can be compared across countries and over time should be pursued.