Modelling zero-inflated count data when exposure varies: with an application to tumor counts)

This paper is concerned with the analysis of zero-inflated count data when time of exposure varies. It proposes a modified zero-inflated count data model where the probability of an extra zero is derived from an underlying duration model with Weibull hazard rate. The new model is compared to the standard Poisson model with logit zero inflation in an application to the effect of treatment with thiotepa on the number of new bladder tumors.

Predictors of temporary and permanent work disability in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results of the swiss inflammatory bowel disease cohort study

BACKGROUND Inflammatory bowel disease can decrease the quality of life and induce work disability. We sought to (1) identify and quantify the predictors of disease-specific work disability in patients with inflammatory bowel disease and (2) assess the suitability of using cross-sectional data to predict future outcomes, using the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study data. METHODS A total of 1187 patients were enrolled and followed up for an average of 13 months. Predictors included patient and disease characteristics and drug utilization. Potential predictors were identified through an expert panel and published literature. We estimated adjusted effect estimates with 95% confidence intervals using logistic and zero-inflated Poisson regression. RESULTS Overall, 699 (58.9%) experienced Crohn's disease and 488 (41.1%) had ulcerative colitis. Most important predictors for temporary work disability in patients with Crohn's disease included gender, disease duration, disease activity, C-reactive protein level, smoking, depressive symptoms, fistulas, extraintestinal manifestations, and the use of immunosuppressants/steroids. Temporary work disability in patients with ulcerative colitis was associated with age, disease duration, disease activity, and the use of steroids/antibiotics. In all patients, disease activity emerged as the only predictor of permanent work disability. Comparing data at enrollment versus follow-up yielded substantial differences regarding disability and predictors, with follow-up data showing greater predictor effects. CONCLUSIONS We identified predictors of work disability in patients with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. Our findings can help in forecasting these disease courses and guide the choice of appropriate measures to prevent adverse outcomes. Comparing cross-sectional and longitudinal data showed that the conduction of cohort studies is inevitable for the examination of disability.

Predictors for hospitalization and outpatient visits in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: results from the Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have a high resource consumption, with considerable costs for the healthcare system. In a system with sparse resources, treatment is influenced not only by clinical judgement but also by resource consumption. We aimed to determine the resource consumption of IBD patients and to identify its significant predictors. MATERIALS AND METHODS Data from the prospective Swiss Inflammatory Bowel Disease Cohort Study were analysed for the resource consumption endpoints hospitalization and outpatient consultations at enrolment [1187 patients; 41.1% ulcerative colitis (UC), 58.9% Crohn's disease (CD)] and at 1-year follow-up (794 patients). Predictors of interest were chosen through an expert panel and a review of the relevant literature. Logistic regressions were used for binary endpoints, and negative binomial regressions and zero-inflated Poisson regressions were used for count data. RESULTS For CD, fistula, use of biologics and disease activity were significant predictors for hospitalization days (all P-values <0.001); age, sex, steroid therapy and biologics were significant predictors for the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0368, 0.023, 0.0002, 0.0003, respectively). For UC, biologics, C-reactive protein, smoke quitters, age and sex were significantly predictive for hospitalization days (P=0.0167, 0.0003, 0.0003, 0.0076 and 0.0175 respectively); disease activity and immunosuppressive therapy predicted the number of outpatient visits (P=0.0009 and 0.0017, respectively). The results of multivariate regressions are shown in detail. CONCLUSION Several highly significant clinical predictors for resource consumption in IBD were identified that might be considered in medical decision-making. In terms of resource consumption and its predictors, CD and UC show a different behaviour.

Association between intraoperative electroencephalographic suppression and postoperative mortality

BACKGROUND Low bispectral index values frequently reflect EEG suppression and have been associated with postoperative mortality. This study investigated whether intraoperative EEG suppression was an independent predictor of 90 day postoperative mortality and explored risk factors for EEG suppression. METHODS This observational study included 2662 adults enrolled in the B-Unaware or BAG-RECALL trials. A cohort was defined with >5 cumulative minutes of EEG suppression, and 1:2 propensity-matched to a non-suppressed cohort (≤5 min suppression). We evaluated the association between EEG suppression and mortality using multivariable logistic regression, and examined risk factors for EEG suppression using zero-inflated mixed effects analysis. RESULTS Ninety day postoperative mortality was 3.9% overall, 6.3% in the suppressed cohort, and 3.0% in the non-suppressed cohort {odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval (CI)]=2.19 (1.48-3.26)}. After matching and multivariable adjustment, EEG suppression was not associated with mortality [OR (95% CI)=0.83 (0.55-1.25)]; however, the interaction between EEG suppression and mean arterial pressure (MAP) <55 mm Hg was [OR (95% CI)=2.96 (1.34-6.52)]. Risk factors for EEG suppression were older age, number of comorbidities, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and higher intraoperative doses of benzodiazepines, opioids, or volatile anaesthetics. EEG suppression was less likely in patients with cancer, preoperative alcohol, opioid or benzodiazepine consumption, and intraoperative nitrous oxide exposure. CONCLUSIONS Although EEG suppression was associated with increasing anaesthetic administration and comorbidities, the hypothesis that intraoperative EEG suppression is a predictor of postoperative mortality was only supported if it was coincident with low MAP. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NCT00281489 and NCT00682825.

Zero-dose fluoroscopy-based close reduction and osteosynthesis of diaphyseal fracture of femurs

This paper presents a novel technique to create a computerized fluoroscopy with zero-dose image updates for computer-assisted fluoroscopy-based close reduction and osteosynthesis of diaphyseal fracture of femurs. With the novel technique, repositioning of bone fragments during close fracture reduction will lead to image updates in each acquired imaging plane, which is equivalent to using several fluoroscopes simultaneously from different directions but without any X-ray radiation. Its application facilitates the whole fracture reduction and osteosynthesis procedure when combining with the existing leg length and antetorsion restoration methods and may result in great reduction of the X-ray radiation to the patient and to the surgical team. In this paper, we present the approach for achieving such a technique and the experimental results with plastic bones.

The influence of zero-value subtraction on the performance of two laser fluorescence devices for detecting occlusal caries in vitro

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of zero-value subtraction on the performance of two laser fluorescence (LF) devices developed to detect occlusal caries. METHODS: The authors selected 119 permanent molars. Two examiners assessed three areas (cuspal, middle and cervical) of both mesial and distal portions of the buccal surface and one occlusal site using an LF device and an LF pen. For each tooth, the authors subtracted the value measured in the cuspal, middle and cervical areas in the buccal surface from the value measured in the respective occlusal site. RESULTS: The authors observed differences among the readings for both devices in the cuspal, middle and cervical areas in the buccal surface as well as differences for both devices with and without the zero-value subtraction in the occlusal surface. When the authors did not perform the zero-value subtraction, they found statistically significant differences for sensitivity and accuracy for the LF device. When this was done with the LF pen, specificity increased and sensitivity decreased significantly. CONCLUSIONS: For the LF device, the zero-value subtraction decreased the sensitivity. For this reason, the authors concluded that clinicians can obtain measures with the LF device effectively without using zero-value subtraction. For the LF pen, however, the absence of the zero-value subtraction changed both the sensitivity and specificity, and so the authors concluded that clinicians should not eliminate this step from the procedure. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: When using the LF device, clinicians might not need to perform the zero-value subtraction; however, for the LF pen, clinicians should do so.

The influence of zero value subtraction on the performance of a new laser fluorescence device for approximal caries detection

The aim of this study was to assess the influence of the zero value subtraction on the performance of laser fluorescence (LFpen) for approximal caries detection. Three areas (cuspal, middle and cervical) of both mesial and distal buccal surfaces of 78 permanent molars were assessed using both wedge-shaped (WDG) and tapered wedge-shaped (TWDG) tips. With the addition of the average, one cut-off value for each area was obtained and the performance was assessed. The areas under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, specificity, sensitivity and accuracy with and without the zero value subtraction were calculated. The McNemar test revealed a statistically significant difference for specificity at thresholds D(1), D(2) and D(3) (WDG) and D(1) and D(2) (TWDG) when the zero value subtraction was not performed. Influence of the zero value subtraction on the LFpen performance was observed for approximal caries detection. However, when modified cut-off values were used, the zero value subtraction could be eliminated.