Jatropha mahafalensis for rural energy supply in south-western Madagascar?

In many parts of the eastern African region wood-based fuels will remain dominant sources of energy in coming decades. Pressure on forests, especially in semi-arid areas will therefore continue increasing. In this context, the role of liquid biofuels as substitutes for firewood and charcoal, to help reducing pressure on woody biomass and contributing to a better energy security of rural communities, has remained controversial among researchers and practitioners. At household level, the economic and technical feasibility of straight vegetable oil (SVO) was assessed mainly on Jatropha curcas, with unpersuasive results. So far nothing is known about the suitability as an energy carrier of Jatropha mahafalensis Jum. & H. Perrier, the only endemic representative of the Jatropha genus in Madagascar. This paper explores the potential of this plant as a biofuel feedstock in the agro-pastoral area of Soalara, in the semi-arid south-western part of Madagascar. Only hedge-based production was considered to rule out competition over land with food crops. Yield data, the length of currently existing hedges and energy consumption patterns of households were used to assess the quantitative potential and economic viability of J. mahafalensis SVO for lighting and cooking. Tests were conducted with cooking and lighting devices to assess their technical suitability at household level. The paper concludes that J. mahafalensis hedges have some potential to replace paraffin for lighting (though without much economic benefit for the concerned households), but not to replace charcoal or firewood for cooking. The paper recommends that rural energy strategies in similar contexts do not focus only on substituting current fuels with SVO, but should also take into consideration other alternatives. In the case of cooking, there seems to be substantially more potential in increasing the efficiency of current fuel production and consumption technologies (kilns and stoves); and in the case of lighting, solutions based on SVO need to be compared against other options such as portable solar devices.

What is ‘wood’ – An anatomical re-definition

The technical definition of ‘wood’ is well accepted, but its botanical understanding remains vague. Different degrees and amounts of lignification in plants and their imprecise description, together with a conceptually doubtful life form catalog including trees, shrubs and herbs further complicate our understanding of ‘wood’. Here, we use permanent micro sections to demonstrate that the xylem and bark of terrestrial plants can vary from one tissue with a few lignified cells to an almost fully lignified tissue. This universal principle of plant growth and stabilization, accounting for all taxonomic units within vascular plants, suggests that the classical life form separation into herbs, shrubs and trees is not valid. An anatomical-based differentiation between ‘wood’, ‘woody’ and ‘woodiness’ is also only meaningful if supplemented by insight on the particular plant section and its lignified proportion. We therefore recommend utilizing the botanically more neutral term ‘stem anatomy’ instead of ‘wood anatomy’, which further implies integration of the xylem and bark of all terrestrial plants. Since dendrochronology considers shrubs, dwarf shrubs and perennial herbs in addition to trees, its semantic expansion toward ‘xylemchronology’ might be worthwhile considering.

Past and future carbon fluxes from land use change, shifting cultivation and wood harvest

Carbon emissions from anthropogenic land use (LU) and land use change (LUC) are quantified with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for the past and the 21st century following Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Wood harvesting and parallel abandonment and expansion of agricultural land in areas of shifting cultivation are explicitly simulated (gross LUC) based on the Land Use Harmonization (LUH) dataset and a proposed alternative method that relies on minimum input data and generically accounts for gross LUC. Cumulative global LUC emissions are 72 GtC by 1850 and 243 GtC by 2004 and 27–151 GtC for the next 95 yr following the different RCP scenarios. The alternative method reproduces results based on LUH data with full transition information within <0.1 GtC/yr over the last decades and bears potential for applications in combination with other LU scenarios. In the last decade, shifting cultivation and wood harvest within remaining forests including slash each contributed 19% to the mean annual emissions of 1.2 GtC/yr. These factors, in combination with amplification effects under elevated CO2, contribute substantially to future emissions from LUC in all RCPs.

Evaluating perspectives for PRRS virus elimination from pig dense areas with a risk factor based herd index

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) is wide-spread in pig populations globally. In many regions of Europe with intensive pig production and high herd densities, the virus is endemic and can cause disease and production losses. This fuels discussion about the feasibility and sustainability of virus elimination from larger geographic regions. The implementation of a program aiming at virus elimination for areas with high pig density is unprecedented and its potential success is unknown. The objective of this work was to approach pig population data with a simple method that could support assessing the feasibility of a sustainable regional PRRSV elimination. Based on known risk factors such as pig herd structure and neighborhood conditions, an index characterizing individual herds' potential for endemic virus circulation and reinfection was designed. This index was subsequently used to compare data of all pig herds in two regions with different pig- and herd-densities in Lower Saxony (North-West Germany) where PRRSV is endemic. Distribution of the indexed herds was displayed using GIS. Clusters of high herd index densities forming potential risk hot spots were identified which could represent key target areas for surveillance and biosecurity measures under a control program aimed at virus elimination. In an additional step, for the study region with the higher pig density (2463 pigs/km(2) farmland), the potential distribution of PRRSV-free and non-free herds during the implementation of a national control program aiming at national virus elimination was modeled. Complex herd and trade network structures suggest that PRRSV elimination in regions with intensive pig farming like that of middle Europe would have to involve legal regulation and be accompanied by important trade and animal movement restrictions. The proposed methodology of risk index mapping could be adapted to areas varying in size, herd structure and density. Interpreted in the regional context, this could help to classify the density of risk and to accordingly target resources and measures for elimination.

Viral load versus CD4⁺ monitoring and 5-year outcomes of antiretroviral therapy in HIV-positive children in Southern Africa: a cohort-based modelling study.

OBJECTIVES Many paediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in Southern Africa rely on CD4⁺ to monitor ART. We assessed the benefit of replacing CD4⁺ by viral load monitoring. DESIGN A mathematical modelling study. METHODS A simulation model of HIV progression over 5 years in children on ART, parameterized by data from seven South African cohorts. We simulated treatment programmes with 6-monthly CD4⁺ or 6- or 12-monthly viral load monitoring. We compared mortality, second-line ART use, immunological failure and time spent on failing ART. In further analyses, we varied the rate of virological failure, and assumed that the rate is higher with CD4⁺ than with viral load monitoring. RESULTS About 7% of children were predicted to die within 5 years, independent of the monitoring strategy. Compared with CD4⁺ monitoring, 12-monthly viral load monitoring reduced the 5-year risk of immunological failure from 1.6 to 1.0% and the mean time spent on failing ART from 6.6 to 3.6 months; 1% of children with CD4⁺ compared with 12% with viral load monitoring switched to second-line ART. Differences became larger when assuming higher rates of virological failure. When assuming higher virological failure rates with CD4⁺ than with viral load monitoring, up to 4.2% of children with CD4⁺ compared with 1.5% with viral load monitoring experienced immunological failure; the mean time spent on failing ART was 27.3 months with CD4⁺ monitoring and 6.0 months with viral load monitoring. Conclusion: Viral load monitoring did not affect 5-year mortality, but reduced time on failing ART, improved immunological response and increased switching to second-line ART.

Sources and contributions of wood smoke during winter in London: assessing local and regional influences

Determining the contribution of wood smoke to air pollution in large cities such as London is becoming increasingly important due to the changing nature of domestic heating in urban areas. During winter, biomass burning emissions have been identified as a major cause of exceedances of European air quality limits. The aim of this work was to quantify the contribution of biomass burning in London to concentrations of PM2:5 and determine whether local emissions or regional contributions were the main source of biomass smoke. To achieve this, a number of biomass burning chemical tracers were analysed at a site within central London and two sites in surrounding rural areas. Concentrations of levoglucosan, elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC) and K+ were generally well correlated across the three sites. At all the sites, biomass burning was found to be a source of OC and EC, with the largest contribution of EC from traffic emissions, while for OC the dominant fraction included contributions from secondary organic aerosols, primary biogenic and cooking sources. Source apportionment of the EC and OC was found to give reasonable estimation of the total carbon from non-fossil and fossil fuel sources based upon comparison with estimates derived from 14C analysis. Aethalometer-derived black carbon data were also apportioned into the contributions frombiomass burning and traffic and showed trends similar to those observed for EC. Mean wood smoke mass at the sites was estimated to range from 0.78 to 1.0 μgm-3 during the campaign in January–February 2012. Measurements on a 160m tower in London suggested a similar ratio of brown to black carbon (reflecting wood burning and traffic respectively) in regional and London air. Peaks in the levoglucosan and K+ concentrations were observed to coincide with low ambient temperature, consistent with domestic heating as a major contributing local source in London. Overall, the source of biomass smoke in London was concluded to be a background regional source overlaid by contributions from local domestic burning emissions. This could have implications when considering future emission control strategies during winter and may be the focus of future work in order to better determine the contributing local sources.