Potential drought stress in a Swiss mountain catchment-Ensemble forecasting of high mountain soil moisture reveals a drastic decrease, despite major uncertainties

Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations.

Tracing the origin of Arctic driftwood

Arctic environments, where surface temperatures increase and sea ice cover and permafrost depth decrease, are very sensitive to even slight climatic variations. Placing recent environmental change of the high-northern latitudes in a long-term context is, however, complicated by too short meteorological observations and too few proxy records. Driftwood may represent a unique cross-disciplinary archive at the interface of marine and terrestrial processes. Here, we introduce 1445 driftwood remains from coastal East Greenland and Svalbard. Macroscopy and microscopy were applied for wood anatomical classification; a multi-species subset was used for detecting fungi; and information on boreal vegetation patterns, circumpolar river systems, and ocean current dynamics was reviewed and evaluated. Four conifer (Pinus, Larix, Picea, and Abies) and three deciduous (Populus, Salix, and Betula) genera were differentiated. Species-specific identification also separated Pinus sylvestris and Pinus sibirica, which account for ~40% of all driftwood and predominantly originate from western and central Siberia. Larch and spruce from Siberia or North America represents ~26% and ~18% of all materials, respectively. Fungal colonization caused different levels of driftwood staining and/or decay. Our results demonstrate the importance of combining wood anatomical knowledge with insight on boreal forest composition for successfully tracing the origin of Arctic driftwood. To ultimately reconstruct spatiotemporal variations in ocean currents, and to better quantify postglacial uplift rates, we recommend consideration of dendrochronologically dated material from many more circumpolar sites.

Millennial to orbital-scale variations of drought intensity in the Eastern Mediterranean

Millennial to orbital-scale rainfall changes in the Mediterranean region and corresponding variations in vegetation patterns were the result of large-scale atmospheric reorganizations. In spite of recent efforts to reconstruct this variability using a range of proxy archives, the underlying physical mechanisms have remained elusive. Through the analysis of a new high-resolution sedimentary section from Lake Van (Turkey) along with climate modeling experiments, we identify massive droughts in the Eastern Med- iterranean for the past four glacial cycles, which have a pervasive link with known intervals of enhanced North Atlantic glacial iceberg calving, weaker Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Dansgaard-Oeschger cold conditions. On orbital timescales, the topographic effect of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and periods with minimum insolation seasonality further exacerbated drought intensities by suppressing both summer and winter precipitation.

Spatial and temporal patterns of greenness on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia: interactions of ecological and social factors affecting the Arctic normalized difference vegetation index

The causes of a greening trend detected in the Arctic using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) are still poorly understood. Changes in NDVI are a result of multiple ecological and social factors that affect tundra net primary productivity. Here we use a 25 year time series of AVHRR-derived NDVI data (AVHRR: advanced very high resolution radiometer), climate analysis, a global geographic information database and ground-based studies to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation greenness on the Yamal Peninsula, Russia. We assess the effects of climate change, gas-field development, reindeer grazing and permafrost degradation. In contrast to the case for Arctic North America, there has not been a significant trend in summer temperature or NDVI, and much of the pattern of NDVI in this region is due to disturbances. There has been a 37% change in early-summer coastal sea-ice concentration, a 4% increase in summer land temperatures and a 7% change in the average time-integrated NDVI over the length of the satellite observations. Gas-field infrastructure is not currently extensive enough to affect regional NDVI patterns. The effect of reindeer is difficult to quantitatively assess because of the lack of control areas where reindeer are excluded. Many of the greenest landscapes on the Yamal are associated with landslides and drainage networks that have resulted from ongoing rapid permafrost degradation. A warming climate and enhanced winter snow are likely to exacerbate positive feedbacks between climate and permafrost thawing. We present a diagram that summarizes the social and ecological factors that influence Arctic NDVI. The NDVI should be viewed as a powerful monitoring tool that integrates the cumulative effect of a multitude of factors affecting Arctic land-cover change.

Differences in Soil Fungal Communities between European Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Dominated Forests Are Related to Soil and Understory Vegetation

Fungi are important members of soil microbial communities with a crucial role in biogeochemical processes. Although soil fungi are known to be highly diverse, little is known about factors influencing variations in their diversity and community structure among forests dominated by the same tree species but spread over different regions and under different managements. We analyzed the soil fungal diversity and community composition of managed and unmanaged European beech dominated forests located in three German regions, the Schwäbische Alb in Southwestern, the Hainich-Dün in Central and the Schorfheide Chorin in the Northeastern Germany, using internal transcribed spacer (ITS) rDNA pyrotag sequencing. Multiple sequence quality filtering followed by sequence data normalization revealed 1655 fungal operational taxonomic units. Further analysis based on 722 abundant fungal OTUs revealed the phylum Basidiomycota to be dominant (54%) and its community to comprise 71.4% of ectomycorrhizal taxa. Fungal community structure differed significantly (p≤0.001) among the three regions and was characterized by non-random fungal OTUs co-occurrence. Soil parameters, herbaceous understory vegetation, and litter cover affected fungal community structure. However, within each study region we found no difference in fungal community structure between management types. Our results also showed region specific significant correlation patterns between the dominant ectomycorrhizal fungal genera. This suggests that soil fungal communities are region-specific but nevertheless composed of functionally diverse and complementary taxa.

Importance of vegetation, topography and flow paths for water transit times of base flow in alpine headwater catchments

The mean transit time (MTT) of water in a catchment gives information about storage, flow paths, sources of water and thus also about retention and release of solutes in a catchment. To our knowledge there are only a few catchment studies on the influence of vegetation cover changes on base flow MTTs. The main changes in vegetation cover in the Swiss Alps are massive shrub encroachment and forest expansion into formerly open habitats. Four small and relatively steep headwater catchments in the Swiss Alps (Ursern Valley) were investigated to relate different vegetation cover to water transit times. Time series of water stable isotopes were used to calculate MTTs. The high temporal variation of the stable isotope signals in precipitation was strongly dampened in stream base flow samples. MTTs of the four catchments were 70 to 102 weeks. The strong dampening of the stable isotope input signal as well as stream water geochemistry points to deeper flow paths and mixing of waters of different ages at the catchments' outlets. MTTs were neither related to topographic indices nor vegetation cover. The major part of the quickly infiltrating precipitation likely percolates through fractured and partially karstified deeper rock zones, which increases the control of bedrock flow paths on MTT. Snow accumulation and the timing of its melt play an important role for stable isotope dynamics during spring and early summer. We conclude that, in mountainous headwater catchments with relatively shallow soil layers, the hydrogeological and geochemical patterns (i.e. geochemistry, porosity and hydraulic conductivity of rocks) and snow dynamics influence storage, mixing and release of water in a stronger way than vegetation cover or topography do.

Pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of Holocene regional vegetation cover (plant-functional types and land-cover types) in Europe suitable for climate modelling

We present quantitative reconstructions of regional vegetation cover in north-western Europe, western Europe north of the Alps, and eastern Europe for five time windows in the Holocene around 6k, 3k, 0.5k, 0.2k, and 0.05k calendar years before present (bp)] at a 1 degrees x1 degrees spatial scale with the objective of producing vegetation descriptions suitable for climate modelling. The REVEALS model was applied on 636 pollen records from lakes and bogs to reconstruct the past cover of 25 plant taxa grouped into 10 plant-functional types and three land-cover types evergreen trees, summer-green (deciduous) trees, and open land]. The model corrects for some of the biases in pollen percentages by using pollen productivity estimates and fall speeds of pollen, and by applying simple but robust models of pollen dispersal and deposition. The emerging patterns of tree migration and deforestation between 6k bp and modern time in the REVEALS estimates agree with our general understanding of the vegetation history of Europe based on pollen percentages. However, the degree of anthropogenic deforestation (i.e. cover of cultivated and grazing land) at 3k, 0.5k, and 0.2k bp is significantly higher than deduced from pollen percentages. This is also the case at 6k in some parts of Europe, in particular Britain and Ireland. Furthermore, the relationship between summer-green and evergreen trees, and between individual tree taxa, differs significantly when expressed as pollen percentages or as REVEALS estimates of tree cover. For instance, when Pinus is dominant over Picea as pollen percentages, Picea is dominant over Pinus as REVEALS estimates. These differences play a major role in the reconstruction of European landscapes and for the study of land cover-climate interactions, biodiversity and human resources.

Evolution of colour patterns in East African cichlid fish

African cichlid fishes have undergone outbursts of explosive speciation in several lakes, accompanied by rapid radiations in coloration and ecology. Little is known about the evolutionary forces that triggered these events but a hypothesis, published by Wallace Dominey in 1984, has figured prominently. It states that the evolution of colour patterns is driven by sexual selection and that these colour patterns are important in interspecific mate choice, a combination which holds the potential for rapid speciation. Here we present phylogenetic analyses that describe major events in colour evolution and test predictions yielded by Dominey's hypothesis. We assembled information on stripe patterns and the presence or absence of nuptial coloration from more than 700 cichlid species representing more than 90 taxa for which molecular phylogenetic hypotheses were available. We show that sexual selection is most likely the selection force that made male nuptial coloration arise and evolve quickly. In contrast, stripe patterns, though phylogenetically not conserved either, are constrained ecologically. The evolution of vertical bar patterns is associated with structurally complex habitats, such as rocky substrates or vegetation. The evolution of a horizontal stripe is associated with a piscivorous feeding mode. Horizontal stripes are also associated with shoaling behaviour. Strength of sexual selection, measured in terms of the mating system (weak in monogamous, strong in promiscuous species), has no detectable effects on stripe pattern evolution. In promiscuous species the frequency of difference between sister species in nuptial hue is higher than in pair bonding and harem forming species, but the frequency of difference in stripe pattern is lower. We argue that differences between the two components of coloration in their exposure to natural selection explain their very different evolutionary behaviour. Finally, we suggest that habitat-mediated selection upon chromomotor flexibility, a special form of phenotypic plasticity found in the river-dwelling outgroups of the lake-dwelling cichlids, explains the rapid and recurrent ecology-associated radiation of stripe patterns in lake environments, a new hypothesis that yields experimentally testable predictions.

Qualitative Distinction of Autotrophic and Heterotrophic Processes at the Leaf Level by Means of Triple Stable Isotope (C–O–H) Patterns

Foliar samples were harvested from two oaks, a beech, and a yew at the same site in order to trace the development of the leaves over an entire vegetation season. Cellulose yield and stable isotopic compositions (δ13C, δ18O, and δD) were analyzed on leaf cellulose. All parameters unequivocally define a juvenile and a mature period in the foliar expansion of each species. The accompanying shifts of the δ13C-values are in agreement with the transition from remobilized carbohydrates (juvenile period), to current photosynthates (mature phase). While the opponent seasonal trends of δ18O of blade and vein cellulose are in perfect agreement with the state-of-art mechanistic understanding, the lack of this discrepancy for δD, documented for the first time, is unexpected. For example, the offset range of 18 permil (oak veins) to 57 permil (oak blades) in δD may represent a process driven shift from autotrophic to heterotrophic processes. The shared pattern between blade and vein found for both oak and beech suggests an overwhelming metabolic isotope effect on δD that might be accompanied by proton transfer linked to the Calvin-cycle. These results provide strong evidence that hydrogen and oxygen are under different biochemical controls even at the leaf level.

Palynostratigraphy of the last centuries in Switzerland based on 23 lake and mire deposits: chronostratigraphic pollen markers, regional patterns, and local histories

A total of 23 pollen diagrams [stored in the Alpine Palynological Data-Base (ALPADABA), Geobotanical Institute, Bern] cover the last 100 to over 1000 years. The sites include 15 lakes, seven mires, and one soil profile distributed in the Jura Mts (three sites), Swiss Plateau (two sites), northern Pre-Alps and Alps (six sites), central Alps (five sites), southern Alps (three sites), and southern Pre-Alps (four sites) in the western and southern part of Switzerland or just outside the national borders. The pollen diagrams have both a high taxonomic resolution and a high temporal resolution, with sampling distances of 0.5–3 cm, equivalent to 1 to 11 years for the last 100 years and 8 to 130 years for earlier periods. The chronology is based on absolute dating (14 sites: 210Pb 11 sites; 14C six sites; varve counting two sites) or on biostratigraphic correlation among pollen diagrams. The latter relies mainly on trends in Cannabis sativa, Ambrosia, Mercurialis annua, and Ostrya-type pollen. Individual pollen stratigraphies are discussed and sites are compared within each region. The principle of designating local, extra-local, and regional pollen signals and vegetation is exemplified by two pairs of sites lying close together. Trends in biostratigraphies shared by a major part of the pollen diagrams allow the following generalisations. Forest declined in phases since medieval times up to the late 19th century. Abies and Fagus declined consistently, whereas the behaviour of short-lived trees and trees of moist habitats differed among sites (Alnus glutinosa-type, Alnus viridis, Betula, Corylus avellana). In the present century, however, Picea and Pinus increased, followed by Fraxinus excelsior in the second half of this century. Grassland (traced by Gramineae and Plantago lanceolata-type pollen) increased, replacing much of the forest, and declined again in the second half of this century. Nitrate enrichment of the vegetation (traced by Urtica) took place in the first half of this century. These trends reflect the intensification of forest use and the expansion of grassland from medieval times up to the end of the last century, whereas subsequently parts of the grassland became used more intensively and the marginal parts were abandoned for forest regrowth. In most pollen diagrams human impact is the dominant factor in explaining inferred changes in vegetation, but climatic change plays a role at three sites.

Primary lowland dipterocarp forest at Danum Valley, Sabah, Malaysia. Species composition and patterns in the understorey

The spatial distributions of species of tree ≥10 cm gbh were examined in two 4 ha plots and related to the local variation in topography and soil chemistry. The plots were similar in their species composition, particularly in terms of the densities of small trees, and they showed very similar edaphic characteristics. Size class distributions varied little within and between plots. Ordination of 0.25 ha subplots highlighted parallel gradients in the vegetation of both plots when the densities of trees ≥10 cm gbh were considered. Focusing on understorey trees in the 10-<50 cm gbh class at the 0.04 ha subplot scale showed a similar vegetation gradient in both plots closely associated with change from lower slope to ridge. No relationship with soil chemistry was found. On the ridges a special group of understorey species formed clumps and these species contributed importantly to the ordinations. Borneo has a regional history of occasionally severe droughts. It is suggested here that the observed patterns in the understorey are due to differential responses to low soil water supply, the ridges probably tending to dryness more than the lower slopes. Within the large and diverse family Euphorbiaceae, which dominates the understorey at Danum, there may be ecophysiological groupings of species. The long-term effects of disturbance interacting with local edaphic factors on forest structure and composition are discussed.