The role of upper-level dynamics and surface processes for the Pakistan flood of July 2010

In July and August 2010 floods of unprecedented impact afflicted Pakistan. The floods resulted from a series of intense multi-day precipitation events in July and early August. At the same time a series of blocking anticyclones dominated the upper-level flow over western Russia and breaking waves i.e. equatorward extrusions of stratospheric high potential vorticity (PV) air formed along the downstream flank of the blocks. Previous studies suggested that these extratropical upper-level breaking waves were crucial for instigating the precipitation events in Pakistan. Here a detailed analysis is provided of the extratropical forcing of the precipitation. Piecewise PV inversion is used to quantify the extratropical upper-level forcing associated with the wave breaking and trajectories are calculated to study the pathways and source regions of the moisture that precipitated over Pakistan. Limited-area model simulations are carried out to complement the Lagrangian analysis. The precipitation events over Pakistan resulted from a combination of favourable boundary conditions with strong extratropical and monsoonal forcing factors. Above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean led to an elevated lower-tropospheric moisture content. Surface monsoonal depressions ensured the transport of moist air from the ocean towards northeastern Pakistan. Along this pathway the air parcel humidity increased substantially (60–90% of precipitated moisture) via evapotranspiration from the land surface. Extratropical breaking waves influenced the surface wind field substantially by enhancing the wind component directed towards the mountains which reinforced the precipitation.

Arctic Winds in the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis”

Climate in the European part of the Arctic underwent a rapid warming between the 1910s and the 1930s. Previous studies have addressed the role of atmospheric circulation in this period based on geopotential height fields because observations of upper-level winds in the Arctic are rare. Here we analyse winds over the Arctic and specifically over Spitsbergen in the “Twentieth Century Reanalyses” (20CR). We compare in situ upper-air wind measurements performed in 1912 and 1913 in Spitsbergen with six-hourly 20CR data. Furthermore, we compare monthly-to-seasonal 20CR winds at 700 hPa over the European Arctic with statistically reconstructed winds at 3 km altitude. Finally, we analyse long-term trends in Arctic winds in 20CR. The general agreement between observed upper-air winds and 20CR on the day-to-day scale is rather poor, which is not surprising given the paucity of observations in the Arctic at that time that constrain 20CR. In contrast, the seasonally averaged winds (which represent a larger spatial scale) in 20CR compare well with statistically reconstructed winds. The analysis of long term near-surface wind time series in 20CR shows arguably artificial trends from 1871 to around the 1950s over sparsely observed regions, particularly oceanic regions. Densely observed regions such as Europe or the USA show no such trends. This analysis shows that great care needs to be taken when working with 20CR in the Arctic and other sparsely observed regions.

A Global Climatology of Baroclinically Influenced Tropical Cyclogenesis*

Tropical cyclogenesis is generally considered to occur in regions devoid of baroclinic structures; however, an appreciable number of tropical cyclones (TCs) form in baroclinic environments each year. A global climatology of these baroclinically influenced TC developments is presented in this study. An objective classification strategy is developed that focuses on the characteristics of the environmental state rather than on properties of the vortex, thus allowing for a pointwise “development pathway” classification of reanalysis data. The resulting climatology shows that variability within basins arises primarily as a result of local surface thermal contrasts and the positions of time-mean features on the subtropical tropopause. The pathway analyses are sampled to generate a global climatology of 1948–2010 TC developments classified by baroclinic influence: nonbaroclinic (70%), low-level baroclinic (9%), trough induced (5%), weak tropical transition (11%), and strong tropical transition (5%). All basins other than the North Atlantic are dominated by nonbaroclinic events; however, there is extensive interbasin variability in secondary development pathways. Within each basin, subregions and time periods are identified in which the relative importance of the development pathways also differs. The efficiency of tropical cyclogenesis is found to be highly dependent on development pathway. The peak efficiency defined in the classification subspace straddles the nonbaroclinic/trough-induced boundary, suggesting that the optimal environment for TC development includes a baroclinic contribution from an upper-level disturbance. By assessing the global distribution of baroclinically influenced TC formations, this study identifies regions and pathways whose further study could yield improvements in our understanding of this important subset of TC developments.

A climatological analysis of high-precipitation events in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, and associated large-scale atmospheric conditions

The link between high precipitation in Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica, and the large-scale atmospheric circulation is investigated using ERA-Interim data for 1979–2009. High-precipitation events are analyzed at Halvfarryggen situated in the coastal region of DML and at Kohnen Station located in its interior. This study further includes a comprehensive comparison of high precipitation in ERA-Interim with precipitation data from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) and snow accumulation measurements from automatic weather stations (AWSs), with the limitations of such a comparison being discussed. The ERA-Interim and AMPS precipitation data agree very well. However, the correspondence between high precipitation in ERA-Interim and high snow accumulation at the AWSs is relatively weak. High-precipitation events at both Halvfarryggen and Kohnen are typically associated with amplified upper level waves. This large-scale atmospheric flow pattern is preceded by the downstream development of a Rossby wave train from the eastern South Pacific several days before the precipitation event. At the surface, a cyclone located over the Weddell Sea is the main synoptic ingredient for high precipitation both at Halvfarryggen and at Kohnen. A blocking anticyclone downstream is not a requirement for high precipitation per se, but a larger share of blocking occurrences during the highest-precipitation days in DML suggests that these blocks strengthen the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) into DML. A strong link between high precipitation and the IVT perpendicular to the local orography suggests that IVT could be used as a “proxy” for high precipitation, in particular over DML's interior.

Dynamics of a local Alpine flooding event in October 2011: moisture source and large-scale circulation

Alpine heavy precipitation events often affect small catchments, although the circulation pattern leading to the event extends over the entire North Atlantic. The various scale interactions involved are particularly challenging for the numerical weather prediction of such events. Unlike previous studies focusing on the southern Alps, here a comprehensive study of a heavy precipitation event in the northern Alps in October 2011 is presented with particular focus on the role of the large-scale circulation in the North Atlantic/European region. During the event exceptionally high amounts of total precipitable water occurred in and north of the Alps. This moisture was initially transported along the flanks of a blocking ridge over the North Atlantic. Subsequently, strong and persistent northerly flow established at the upstream flank of a trough over Europe and steered the moisture towards the northern Alps. Lagrangian diagnostics reveal that a large fraction of the moisture emerged from the West African coast where a subtropical upper-level cut-off low served as an important moisture collector. Wave activity flux diagnostics show that the ridge was initiated as part of a low-frequency, large-scale Rossby wave train while convergence of fast transients helped to amplify it locally in the North Atlantic. A novel diagnostic for advective potential vorticity tendencies sheds more light on this amplification and further emphasizes the role of the ridge in amplifying the trough over Europe. Operational forecasts misrepresented the amplitude and orientation of this trough. For the first time, this study documents an important pathway for northern Alpine flooding, in which the interaction of synoptic-scale to large-scale weather systems and of long-range moisture transport from the Tropics are dominant. Moreover, the trapping of moisture in a subtropical cut-off near the West African coast is found to be a crucial precursor to the observed European high-impact weather.

A Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement: Implications for Swiss Agriculture

To say that regionalism is gaining momentum has become an understatement. To mourn the lack of progress in multilateral trade rule-making is a commonplace in the discourse of politicians regretting the WTO negotiation standstill, and of “know-what-to-do” academics. The real problem is the uneven level-playing field resulting from increasing differences of rules and obligations. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP) is a very ambitious project. WTI studies in 2014 have shown that the implications for Switzerland could be enormous. But even the combined market power of the two TTIP participants – the EU and the USA – will not level the playing field impairing the regulatory framework, and the market access barriers for trade in agriculture. Such differences will remain in three areas which, incidentally, are also vital for a global response to the food security challenge to feed 9 billion people before the year 2050: market access, non-tariff barriers, and trade-distorting domestic support programmes. This means that without multilateral progress the TTIP and other so-called mega-regionals, if successfully concluded, will exacerbate rather than lessen trade distortions. While this makes farmers in rich countries safer from competition, competitive production in all countries will be hampered. Consequently, and notwithstanding the many affirmations to the contrary, farm policies worldwide will continue to only address farmer security without increasing global food security. What are the implications of the TTIP for Swiss agriculture? This article, commissioned by Waseda University in Tokyo, finds that the failure to achieve further reforms – including a number of areas where earlier reforms have been reversed – is presenting Switzerland and Swiss agriculture with a terrible dilemma in the eventuality of a successful conclusion of the TTIP. If Swiss farm production is to survive for more than another generation, continuous reform efforts are required, and over-reliance on the traditional instruments of border protection and product support is to be avoided. Without a substantial TTIP obliging Switzerland to follow suit, autonomous reforms will remain extremely fragile.

Coupling biomechanics to a cellular level model: An approach to patient-specific image driven multi-scale and multi-physics tumor simulation

Modeling of tumor growth has been performed according to various approaches addressing different biocomplexity levels and spatiotemporal scales. Mathematical treatments range from partial differential equation based diffusion models to rule-based cellular level simulators, aiming at both improving our quantitative understanding of the underlying biological processes and, in the mid- and long term, constructing reliable multi-scale predictive platforms to support patient-individualized treatment planning and optimization. The aim of this paper is to establish a multi-scale and multi-physics approach to tumor modeling taking into account both the cellular and the macroscopic mechanical level. Therefore, an already developed biomodel of clinical tumor growth and response to treatment is self-consistently coupled with a biomechanical model. Results are presented for the free growth case of the imageable component of an initially point-like glioblastoma multiforme tumor. The composite model leads to significant tumor shape corrections that are achieved through the utilization of environmental pressure information and the application of biomechanical principles. Using the ratio of smallest to largest moment of inertia of the tumor material to quantify the effect of our coupled approach, we have found a tumor shape correction of 20\% by coupling biomechanics to the cellular simulator as compared to a cellular simulation without preferred growth directions. We conclude that the integration of the two models provides additional morphological insight into realistic tumor growth behavior. Therefore, it might be used for the development of an advanced oncosimulator focusing on tumor types for which morphology plays an important role in surgical and/or radio-therapeutic treatment planning.

Time course of blood oxygenation level-dependent signal response after theta burst transcranial magnetic stimulation of the frontal eye field

The aim of the current study was to examine the effect of theta burst repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) on the blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) activation during repeated functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) measurements. Theta burst rTMS was applied over the right frontal eye field in seven healthy subjects. Subsequently, repeated fMRI measurements were performed during a saccade-fixation task (block design) 5, 20, 35, and 60 min after stimulation. We found that theta burst rTMS induced a strong and long-lasting decrease of the BOLD signal response of the stimulated frontal eye field at 20 and 35 min. Furthermore, less pronounced alterations of the BOLD signal response with different dynamics were found for remote oculomotor areas such as the left frontal eye field, the pre-supplementary eye field, the supplementary eye field, and both parietal eye fields. Recovery of the BOLD signal changes in the anterior remote areas started earlier than in the posterior remote areas. These results show that a) the major inhibitory impact of theta burst rTMS occurs directly in the stimulated area itself, and that b) a lower effect on remote, oculomotor areas can be induced.

Functional Multiparametric Magnetic Resonance Imaging of the Kidneys Using Blood Oxygen Level-Dependent and Diffusion-Weighted Sequences: a Reliable Tool for Monitoring Acute Upper Urinary Tract Obstruction.

PURPOSE Little data is available on noninvasive MRI-based assessment of renal function during upper urinary tract (UUT) obstruction. In this study, we determined whether functional multiparametric kidney MRI is able to monitor treatment response in acute unilateral UUT obstruction. MATERIAL AND METHODS Between 01/2008 and 01/2010, 18 patients with acute unilateral UUT obstruction due to calculi were prospectively enrolled to undergo kidney MRI with conventional, blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) and diffusion-weighted (DW) sequences on emergency admission and after release of obstruction. Functional imaging parameters of the obstructed and contralateral unobstructed kidneys derived from BOLD (apparent spin relaxation rate [R2*]) and DW (total apparent diffusion coefficient [ADCT], pure diffusion coefficient [ADCD] and perfusion fraction [FP]) sequences were assessed during acute UUT obstruction and after its release. RESULTS During acute obstruction, R2* and FP values were lower in the cortex (p=0.020 and p=0.031, respectively) and medulla (p=0.012 and p=0.190, respectively) of the obstructed compared to the contralateral unobstructed kidneys. After release of obstruction, R2* and FP values increased both in the cortex (p=0.016 and p=0.004, respectively) and medulla (p=0.071 and p=0.044, respectively) of the formerly obstructed kidneys to values similar to those found in the contralateral kidneys. ADCT and ADCD values did not significantly differ between obstructed and contralateral unobstructed kidneys during or after obstruction. CONCLUSIONS In our patients with acute unilateral UUT obstruction due to calculi, functional kidney MRI using BOLD and DW sequences allowed for the monitoring of pathophysiologic changes of obstructed kidneys during obstruction and after its release.

The response of four winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) varieties to field water deficit: leaf anti-oxidative protection and proteolytic activity

Introduction: Drought is one of the most significant factors that limit plant productivity. Oxidative stress is a secondary event in many unfavorable environmental conditions. Intracellular proteases have a role in the metabolism reorganisation and nutrient remobilization under stress. In order to under stand the relative significance of oxidative stress and proteolysis in the yield reduction under drought, four varieties of Triticum aestivum L. with different field drought resistance were examined. Methods: A two-year field experiment was conducted. Analyses were performed on the upper most leaf of control plants and plants under water deficitat the stages most critical for yield reduction under drought (from jointing till milk ripeness). Leaf water deficit and electrolyte leakage, malondyaldehyde level, activities and isoenzymes of superoxide dismutase, catalase and peroxidase, leaf protein content and proteolytic activity were studied. Yield components were analyzed. Results: A general trend of increasing the membrane in stability and accumulation of lipid hydroperoxides was observed with some differences among varieties, especially under drought. The anti-oxidative enzyme activities were progressively enhanced, as well as the azocaseinolytic activities. The leaf protein content decreased under drought at the last phase. Differences among varieties were observed in the parameters under study. They were compared to yield components` reduction under water deprivation.

Diffusion-weighted MR imaging of upper abdominal organs: field strength and intervendor variability of apparent diffusion coefficients

PURPOSE To determine the variability of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values in various anatomic regions in the upper abdomen measured with magnetic resonance (MR) systems from different vendors and with different field strengths. MATERIALS AND METHODS Ten healthy men (mean age, 36.6 years ± 7.7 [standard deviation]) gave written informed consent to participate in this prospective ethics committee-approved study. Diffusion-weighted (DW) MR imaging was performed in each subject with 1.5- and 3.0-T MR systems from each of three vendors at two institutions. Two readers independently measured ADC values in seven upper abdominal regions (left and right liver lobe, gallbladder, pancreas, spleen, and renal cortex and medulla). ADC values were tested for interobserver differences, as well as for differences related to field strength and vendor, with repeated-measures analysis of variance; coefficients of variation (CVs) and variance components were calculated. RESULTS Interreader agreement was excellent (intraclass coefficient, 0.876). ADC values were (77.5-88.8) ×10(-5) mm(2)/sec in the spleen and (250.6-278.5) ×10(-5) mm(2)/sec in the gallbladder. There were no significant differences between ADC values measured at 1.5 T and those measured at 3.0 T in any anatomic region (P >.10 for all). In two of seven regions at 1.5 T (left and right liver lobes, P < .023) and in four of seven regions at 3.0 T (left liver lobe, pancreas, and renal cortex and medulla, P < .008), intervendor differences were significant. CVs ranged from 7.0% to 27.1% depending on the anatomic location. CONCLUSION Despite significant intervendor differences in ADC values of various anatomic regions of the upper abdomen, ADC values of the gallbladder, pancreas, spleen, and kidney may be comparable between MR systems from different vendors and between different field strengths.

Achieving a more realistic assessment of rockfall hazards by coupling three-dimensional process models and field-based tree-ring data

Sound knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of rockfalls is fundamental for the management of this very common hazard in mountain environments. Process-based, three-dimensional simulation models are nowadays capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of rockfall occurrences with reasonable accuracy through the simulation of numerous individual trajectories on highly-resolved digital terrain models. At the same time, however, simulation models typically fail to quantify the ‘real’ frequency of rockfalls (in terms of return intervals). The analysis of impact scars on trees, in contrast, yields real rockfall frequencies, but trees may not be present at the location of interest and rare trajectories may not necessarily be captured due to the limited age of forest stands. In this article, we demonstrate that the coupling of modeling with tree-ring techniques may overcome the limitations inherent to both approaches. Based on the analysis of 64 cells (40 m × 40 m) of a rockfall slope located above a 1631-m long road section in the Swiss Alps, we illustrate results from 488 rockfalls detected in 1260 trees. We illustrate that tree impact data cannot only be used (i) to reconstruct the real frequency of rockfalls for individual cells, but that they also serve (ii) the calibration of the rockfall model Rockyfor3D, as well as (iii) the transformation of simulated trajectories into real frequencies. Calibrated simulation results are in good agreement with real rockfall frequencies and exhibit significant differences in rockfall activity between the cells (zones) along the road section. Real frequencies, expressed as rock passages per meter road section, also enable quantification and direct comparison of the hazard potential between the zones. The contribution provides an approach for hazard zoning procedures that complements traditional methods with a quantification of rockfall frequencies in terms of return intervals through a systematic inclusion of impact records in trees.