Valuation of ecosystem goods and services. Part 2: Implications of unpredictable novel change

This is the second part of a two-part paper which offers a new approach to the valuation of ecosystem goods and services. In the first part a simple pre-industrial model was introduced to show how the interdependencies between the three subsystems, society, economy and nature, influence values, and how values change over time. In this second part the assumption of perfect foresight is dropped. I argue that due to novelty and complexity ex ante unpredictable change occurs within the three subsystems society, economy and nature. Again the simple pre-industrial model, which was introduced in part 1, serves as a simple paradigm to show how unpredictable novel change limits the possibility to derive accurate estimates of values.

Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

General considerations on rapid desensitization for drug hypersensitivity - a consensus statement

Drug hypersensitivity reactions can occur with most drugs, are unpredictable, may affect any organ or system, and range widely in clinical severity from mild pruritus to anaphylaxis. In most cases, the suspected drug is avoided in the future. However, for certain patients, the particular drug may be essential for optimal therapy. Under these circumstances, desensitization may be performed. Drug desensitization is defined as the induction of a temporary state of tolerance of a compound responsible for a hypersensitivity reaction. It is performed by administering increasing doses of the medication concerned over a short period of time (from several hours to a few days) until the total cumulative therapeutic dose is achieved and tolerated. It is a high-risk procedure used only in patients in whom alternatives are less effective or not available after a positive risk/benefit analysis. Desensitization protocols have been developed and are used in patients with allergic reactions to antibiotics (mainly penicillin), insulins, sulfonamides, chemotherapeutic and biologic agents, and many other drugs. Desensitization is mainly performed in IgE-mediated reactions, but also in reactions where drug-specific IgE have not been demonstrated. Desensitization induces a temporary tolerant state, which can only be maintained by continuous administration of the medication. Thus, for treatments like chemotherapy, which have an average interval of 4 weeks between cycles, the procedure must be repeated for every new course. In this paper, some background information on rapid desensitization procedures is provided. We define the drugs and drug reactions indicated for such procedures, describe the possible mechanism of action, and discuss the indications and contraindications. The data should serve as background information for a database (accessible via the EAACI-homepage) with standardized protocols for rapid desensitization for antibiotics, chemotherapeutic agents, monoclonal antibodies/fusion proteins, and other drugs.

Preventing vasospasm improves outcome after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: rationale and design of CONSCIOUS-2 and CONSCIOUS-3 trials

Cerebral vasospasm after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is a frequent but unpredictable complication associated with poor outcome. Current vasospasm therapies are suboptimal; new therapies are needed. Clazosentan, an endothelin receptor antagonist, has shown promise in phase 2 studies, and two randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 trials (CONSCIOUS-2 and CONSCIOUS-3) are underway to further investigate its impact on vasospasm-related outcome after aSAH. Here, we describe the design of these studies, which was challenging with respect to defining endpoints and standardizing endpoint interpretation and patient care. Main inclusion criteria are: age 18-75 years; SAH due to ruptured saccular aneurysm secured by surgical clipping (CONSCIOUS-2) or endovascular coiling (CONSCIOUS-3); substantial subarachnoid clot; and World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies grades I-IV prior to aneurysm-securing procedure. In CONSCIOUS-2, patients are randomized 2:1 to clazosentan (5 mg/h) or placebo. In CONSCIOUS-3, patients are randomized 1:1:1 to clazosentan 5, 15 mg/h, or placebo. Treatment is initiated within 56 h of aSAH and continued until 14 days after aSAH. Primary endpoint is a composite of mortality and vasospasm-related morbidity within 6 weeks of aSAH (all-cause mortality, vasospasm-related new cerebral infarction, vasospasm-related delayed ischemic neurological deficit, neurological signs or symptoms in the presence of angiographic vasospasm leading to rescue therapy initiation). Main secondary endpoint is extended Glasgow Outcome Scale at week 12. A critical events committee assesses all data centrally to ensure consistency in interpretation, and patient management guidelines are used to standardize care. Results are expected at the end of 2010 and 2011 for CONSCIOUS-2 and CONSCIOUS-3, respectively.

Tracking the transcriptional host response from the acute to the regenerative phase of experimental pneumococcal meningitis

Despite the availability of effective antibiotic therapies, pneumococcal meningitis (PM) has a case fatality rate of up to 30% and causes neurological sequelae in up to half of the surviving patients. The underlying brain damage includes apoptosis of neurons in the hippocampus and necrosis in the cortex. Therapeutic options to reduce acute injury and to improve outcome from PM are severely limited.With the aim to develop new therapies a number of pharmacologic interventions have been evaluated. However, the often unpredictable outcome of interventional studies suggests that the current concept of the pathophysiologic events during bacterial meningitis is fragmentary. The aim of this work is to describe the transcriptomic changes underlying the complex mechanisms of the host response to pneumococcal meningitis in a temporal and spatial context using a well characterized infant rat model.

Making Research Relevant to Development - Experience from the NCCR North-South

Making research relevant to development is a complex, non-linear and often unpredictable process which requires very particular skills and strategies on the part of researchers. The National Centre of Competence in Research (NCCR) North-South provides financial and technical support for researchers so that they can effectively cooperate with policy-makers and practitioners. An analysis of 10 years of experience translating research into development practise in the NCCR North-South revealed the following four strategies as particularly relevant: a) research orientation towards the needs and interests of partners; b) implementation of promising methods and approaches; c) communication and dissemination of research results; and d) careful analysis of the political context through monitoring and learning approaches. The NCCR North-South experience shows that “doing excellent research” is just one piece of the mosaic. It is equally important to join hands with non-academic partners from the very beginning of a research project, in order to develop and test new pathways for sustainable development. Capacity building – in the North and South – enables researchers to do both: To do excellent research and to make it relevant for development.

Benefits of Induced Host Responses against an Ectoparasite

As a consequence of the deleterious effects of parasites on host fitness, hosts have evolved responses to minimize the negative impact of parasite infection. Facultative parasite-induced responses are favoured when the risk of infection is unpredictable and host responses are costly. In vertebrates, induced responses are generally viewed as being adaptive, although evidence for fitness benefits arising from these responses in natural host populations is lacking. Here we provide experimental evidence for direct reproductive benefits in flea-infested great tit nests arising from exposure during egg production to fleas. In the experiment we exposed a group of birds to fleas during egg laying (the exposed group), thereby allowing for induced responses, and kept another group free of parasites (the unexposed group) over the same time period. At the start of incubation, we killed the parasites in both groups and all nests were reinfested with fleas. If induced responses occur and are adaptive, we expect that birds of the exposed group mount earlier responses and achieve higher current reproductive success than birds in the unexposed group. In agreement with this prediction, our results show that birds with nests infested during egg-laying have (i) fewer breeding failures and raise a higher proportion of hatchlings to hedging age; () offspring that reach greater body mass, grow longer feathers, and hedge earlier, and (iii) a higher number of recruits and first-year grandchildren than unexposed birds. Flea reproduction and survival did not differ significantly between the two treatments. These results provide the first evidence for the occurrence and the adaptiveness of induced responses against a common ectoparasite in a wild population of vertebrates. [References: 50]

Processing of temporal unpredictability in human and animal amygdala

The amygdala has been studied extensively for its critical role in associative fear conditioning in animals and humans. Noxious stimuli, such as those used for fear conditioning, are most effective in eliciting behavioral responses and amygdala activation when experienced in an unpredictable manner. Here, we show, using a translational approach in mice and humans, that unpredictability per se without interaction with motivational information is sufficient to induce sustained neural activity in the amygdala and to elicit anxiety-like behavior. Exposing mice to mere temporal unpredictability within a time series of neutral sound pulses in an otherwise neutral sensory environment increased expression of the immediate-early gene c-fos and prevented rapid habituation of single neuron activity in the basolateral amygdala. At the behavioral level, unpredictable, but not predictable, auditory stimulation induced avoidance and anxiety-like behavior. In humans, functional magnetic resonance imaging revealed that temporal unpredictably causes sustained neural activity in amygdala and anxiety-like behavior as quantified by enhanced attention toward emotional faces. Our findings show that unpredictability per se is an important feature of the sensory environment influencing habituation of neuronal activity in amygdala and emotional behavior and indicate that regulation of amygdala habituation represents an evolutionary-conserved mechanism for adapting behavior in anticipation of temporally unpredictable events.

Decision-making dysregulation in first-episode schizophrenia

Studies with chronic schizophrenia patients have demonstrated that patients fluctuate between rigid and unpredictable responses in decision-making situations, a phenomenon which has been called dysregulation. The aim of this study was to investigate whether schizophrenia patients already display dysregulated behavior at the beginning of their illness. Thirty-two first-episode schizophrenia or schizophreniform patients and 30 healthy controls performed the two-choice prediction task. The decision-making behavior of first-episode patients was shown to be characterized by a high degree of dysregulation accompanied by low metric entropy and a tendency towards increased mutual information. These results indicate that behavioral abnormalities during the two-choice prediction task are already present during the early stages of the illness.

Complexity of chronic asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: implications for risk assessment, and disease progression and control

Although assessment of asthma control is important to guide treatment, it is difficult since the temporal pattern and risk of exacerbations are often unpredictable. In this Review, we summarise the classic methods to assess control with unidimensional and multidimensional approaches. Next, we show how ideas from the science of complexity can explain the seemingly unpredictable nature of bronchial asthma and emphysema, with implications for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. We show that fluctuation analysis, a method used in statistical physics, can be used to gain insight into asthma as a dynamic disease of the respiratory system, viewed as a set of interacting subsystems (eg, inflammatory, immunological, and mechanical). The basis of the fluctuation analysis methods is the quantification of the long-term temporal history of lung function parameters. We summarise how this analysis can be used to assess the risk of future asthma episodes, with implications for asthma severity and control both in children and adults.

EC Electronic Communications and Competition Law

Telecommunications have developed at an incredible speed over the last couple of decades. The decreasing size of our phones and the increasing number of ways in which we can communicate are barely the only result of this (r)evolutionary development. The latter has indeed multiple implications. The change of paradigm for telecommunications regulation, epitomised by the processes of liberalisation and reregulation, was not sufficient to answer all regulatory questions pertinent to communications. Today, after the transition from monopoly to competition, we are faced perhaps with an even harder regulatory puzzle, since we must figure out how to regulate a sector that is as dynamic and as unpredictable as electronic communications have proven to be, and as vital and fundamental to the economy and to society at large. The present book addresses the regulatory puzzle of contemporary electronic communications and suggests the outlines of a coherent model for their regulation. The search for such a model involves essentially deliberations on the question "Can competition law do it all?", since generic competition rules are largely seen as the appropriate regulatory tool for the communications domain. The latter perception has been the gist of the 2002 reform of the European Community (EC) telecommunications regime, which envisages a withdrawal of sectoral regulation, as communications markets become effectively competitive and ultimately bestows the regulation of the sector upon competition law only. The book argues that the question of whether competition law is the appropriate tool needs to be examined not in the conventional contexts of sector specific rules versus competition rules or deregulation versus regulation but in a broader governance context. Consequently, the reader is provided with an insight into the workings and specific characteristics of the communications sector as network-bound, converging, dynamic and endowed with a special societal role and function. A thorough evaluation of the regulatory objectives in the communications environment contributes further to the comprehensive picture of the communications industry. Upon this carefully prepared basis, the book analyses the communications regulatory toolkit. It explores the interplay between sectoral communications regulation, competition rules (in particular Article 82 of the EC Treaty) and the rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO) relevant to telecommunications services. The in-depth analysis of multilevel construct of EC communications law is up-to-date and takes into account important recent developments in the EC competition law in practice, in particular in the field of refusal to supply and tying, of the reform of the EC electronic communications framework and new decisions of the WTO dispute settlement body, such as notably the Mexico-Telecommunications Services Panel Report. Upon these building elements, an assessment of the regulatory potential of the EC competition rules is made. The conclusions drawn are beyond the scope of the current situation of EC electronic communications and the applicable law and explore the possible contours of an optimal regulatory framework for modern communications. The book is of particular interest to communications and antitrust law experts, as well as policy makers, government agencies, consultancies and think-tanks active in the field. Experts on other network industries (such as electricity or postal communications) can also profit from the substantial experience gathered in the communications sector as the most advanced one in terms of liberalisation and reregulation.