Aerological observations in the Tropics in the Early Twentieth Century

In the first decades of the 20th century, aerological observations were for the first time performed in tropical regions. One of the most prominent endeavours in this respect was ARTHUR BERSON’s aerological expedition to East Africa. Although the main target was the East African monsoon circulation, the expedition provided also other insights that profoundly changed meteorology and climatology. BERSON observed that the tropical tropopause was much higher and colder than that over midlatitudes. Moreover, westerly winds were observed in the lower stratosphere, apparently contradicting the high-altitude equatorial easterly winds that were known since the Krakatoa eruption (‘‘Krakatoa easterlies’’). The puzzle was only resolved five decades later with the discovery of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). In this paper we briefly summarize the expedition of BERSON and review the results in a historical context and in the light of the current research. In the second part of the paper we re-visit BERSON’s early aerological observations, which we have digitized. We compare the observed wind profiles with corresponding profiles extracted from the ‘‘Twentieth Century Reanalysis’’, which provides global three-dimensional weather information back to 1871 based on an assimilation of sea-level and surface pressure data. The comparison shows a good agreement at the coast but less good agreement further inland, at the shore of Lake Victoria, where the circulation is more complex. These results demonstrate that BERSON’s observations are still valuable today as input to current reanalysis systems or for their validation.

A global historical ozone data set and prominent features of stratospheric variability prior to 1979

We present a vertically resolved zonal mean monthly mean global ozone data set spanning the period 1901 to 2007, called HISTOZ.1.0. It is based on a new approach that combines information from an ensemble of chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations with historical total column ozone information. The CCM simulations incorporate important external drivers of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics (in particular solar and volcanic effects, greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, sea surface temperatures, and the quasi-biennial oscillation). The historical total column ozone observations include ground-based measurements from the 1920s onward and satellite observations from 1970 to 1976. An off-line data assimilation approach is used to combine model simulations, observations, and information on the observation error. The period starting in 1979 was used for validation with existing ozone data sets and therefore only ground-based measurements were assimilated. Results demonstrate considerable skill from the CCM simulations alone. Assimilating observations provides additional skill for total column ozone. With respect to the vertical ozone distribution, assimilating observations increases on average the correlation with a reference data set, but does not decrease the mean squared error. Analyses of HISTOZ.1.0 with respect to the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the 11 yr solar cycle on stratospheric ozone from 1934 to 1979 qualitatively confirm previous studies that focussed on the post-1979 period. The ENSO signature exhibits a much clearer imprint of a change in strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation compared to the post-1979 period. The imprint of the 11 yr solar cycle is slightly weaker in the earlier period. Furthermore, the total column ozone increase from the 1950s to around 1970 at northern mid-latitudes is briefly discussed. Indications for contributions of a tropospheric ozone increase, greenhouse gases, and changes in atmospheric circulation are found. Finally, the paper points at several possible future improvements of HISTOZ.1.0.

Plurality of tree species responses to drought perturbation in Bornean tropical rain forest

Drought perturbation driven by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a principal stochastic variable determining the dynamics of lowland rain forest in S.E. Asia. Mortality, recruitment and stem growth rates at Danum in Sabah (Malaysian Borneo) were recorded in two 4-ha plots (trees ≥ 10 cm gbh) for two periods, 1986–1996 and 1996–2001. Mortality and growth were also recorded in a sample of subplots for small trees (10 to <50 cm gbh) in two sub-periods, 1996–1999 and 1999–2001. Dynamics variables were employed to build indices of drought response for each of the 34 most abundant plot-level species (22 at the subplot level), these being interval-weighted percentage changes between periods and sub-periods. A significant yet complex effect of the strong 1997/1998 drought at the forest community level was shown by randomization procedures followed by multiple hypothesis testing. Despite a general resistance of the forest to drought, large and significant differences in short-term responses were apparent for several species. Using a diagrammatic form of stability analysis, different species showed immediate or lagged effects, high or low degrees of resilience or even oscillatory dynamics. In the context of the local topographic gradient, species’ responses define the newly termed perturbation response niche. The largest responses, particularly for recruitment and growth, were among the small trees, many of which are members of understorey taxa. The results bring with them a novel approach to understanding community dynamics: the kaleidoscopic complexity of idiosyncratic responses to stochastic perturbations suggests that plurality, rather than neutrality, of responses may be essential to understanding these tropical forests. The basis to the various responses lies with the mechanisms of tree-soil water relations which are physiologically predictable: the timing and intensity of the next drought, however, is not. To date, environmental stochasticity has been insufficiently incorporated into models of tropical forest dynamics, a step that might considerably improve the reality of theories about these globally important ecosystems.