Detecting determinism with improved sensitivity in time series: Rank-based nonlinear predictability score

The rank-based nonlinear predictability score was recently introduced as a test for determinism in point processes. We here adapt this measure to time series sampled from time-continuous flows. We use noisy Lorenz signals to compare this approach against a classical amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. Both measures show an almost identical robustness against Gaussian white noise. In contrast, when the amplitude distribution of the noise has a narrower central peak and heavier tails than the normal distribution, the rank-based nonlinear predictability score outperforms the amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. For this type of noise, the nonlinear predictability score has a higher sensitivity for deterministic structure in noisy signals. It also yields a higher statistical power in a surrogate test of the null hypothesis of linear stochastic correlated signals. We show the high relevance of this improved performance in an application to electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings from epilepsy patients. Here the nonlinear predictability score again appears of higher sensitivity to nonrandomness. Importantly, it yields an improved contrast between signals recorded from brain areas where the first ictal EEG signal changes were detected (focal EEG signals) versus signals recorded from brain areas that were not involved at seizure onset (nonfocal EEG signals).

Levels and determinants of inflammatory biomarkers in a Swiss population-based sample (CoLaus study)

Objective to assess the levels and determinants of interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6, tumour necrosis factor (TNF)-α and C-reactive protein (CRP) in a healthy Caucasian population. Methods population sample of 2884 men and 3201 women aged 35 to 75. IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α were assessed by a multiplexed particle-based flow cytometric assay and CRP by an immunometric assay. Results Spearman rank correlations between duplicate cytokine measurements (N = 80) ranged between 0.89 and 0.96; intra-class correlation coefficients ranged between 0.94 and 0.97, indicating good reproducibility. Among the 6085 participants, 2289 (37.6%), 451 (7.4%) and 43 (0.7%) had IL-1β, IL-6 and TNF-α levels below detection limits, respectively. Median (interquartile range) for participants with detectable values were 1.17 (0.48–3.90) pg/ml for IL-1β; 1.47 (0.71–3.53) pg/ml for IL-6; 2.89 (1.82–4.53) pg/ml for TNF-α and 1.3 (0.6–2.7) ng/ml for CRP. On multivariate analysis, greater age was the only factor inversely associated with IL-1β levels. Male sex, increased BMI and smoking were associated with greater IL-6 levels, while no relationship was found for age and leisure-time PA. Male sex, greater age, increased BMI and current smoking were associated with greater TNF-α levels, while no relationship was found with leisure-time PA. CRP levels were positively related to age, BMI and smoking, and inversely to male sex and physical activity. Conclusion Population-based levels of several cytokines were established. Increased age and BMI, and to a lesser degree sex and smoking, significantly and differentially impact cytokine levels, while leisure-time physical activity has little effect.

IS711-based real-time PCR assay as a tool for detection of Brucella spp. in wild boars and comparison with bacterial isolation and serology

BACKGROUND: Control of brucellosis in livestock, wildlife and humans depends on the reliability of the methods used for detection and identification of bacteria. In the present study, we describe the evaluation of the recently established real-time PCR assay based on the Brucella-specific insertion sequence IS711 with blood samples from 199 wild boars (first group of animals) and tissue samples from 53 wild boars (second group of animals) collected in Switzerland. Results from IS711 real-time PCR were compared to those obtained by bacterial isolation, Rose Bengal Test (RBT), competitive ELISA (c-ELISA) and indirect ELISA (i-ELISA). RESULTS: In the first group of animals, IS711 real-time PCR detected infection in 11.1% (16/144) of wild boars that were serologically negative. Serological tests showed different sensitivities [RBT 15.6%, c-ELISA 7.5% and i-ELISA 5.5%] and only 2% of blood samples were positive with all three tests, which makes interpretation of the serological results very difficult. Regarding the second group of animals, the IS711 real-time PCR detected infection in 26% of animals, while Brucella spp. could be isolated from tissues of only 9.4% of the animals. CONCLUSION: The results presented here indicate that IS711 real-time PCR assay is a specific and sensitive tool for detection of Brucella spp. infections in wild boars. For this reason, we propose the employment of IS711 real-time PCR as a complementary tool in brucellosis screening programs and for confirmation of diagnosis in doubtful cases.

Development and Validation of a Symptom-Based Activity Index for Adults with Eosinophilic Esophagitis

BACKGROUND & Aims: Standardized instruments are needed to assess the activity of eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE), to provide endpoints for clinical trials and observational studies. We aimed to develop and validate a patient-reported outcome (PRO) instrument and score, based on items that could account for variations in patients' assessments of disease severity. We also evaluated relationships between patients' assessment of disease severity and EoE-associated endoscopic, histologic, and laboratory findings. METHODS We collected information from 186 patients with EoE in Switzerland and the US (69.4% male; median age, 43 years) via surveys (n = 135), focus groups (n = 27), and semi-structured interviews (n = 24). Items were generated for the instruments to assess biologic activity based on physician input. Linear regression was used to quantify the extent to which variations in patient-reported disease characteristics could account for variations in patients' assessment of EoE severity. The PRO instrument was prospectively used in 153 adult patients with EoE (72.5% male; median age, 38 years), and validated in an independent group of 120 patients with EoE (60.8% male; median age, 40.5 years). RESULTS Seven PRO factors that are used to assess characteristics of dysphagia, behavioral adaptations to living with dysphagia, and pain while swallowing accounted for 67% of the variation in patients' assessment of disease severity. Based on statistical consideration and patient input, a 7-day recall period was selected. Highly active EoE, based on endoscopic and histologic findings, was associated with an increase in patient-assessed disease severity. In the validation study, the mean difference between patient assessment of EoE severity and PRO score was 0.13 (on a scale from 0 to 10). CONCLUSIONS We developed and validated an EoE scoring system based on 7 PRO items that assesses symptoms over a 7-day recall period. Clinicaltrials.gov number: NCT00939263.

Systematic counselling by general practitioners for promoting physical activity in elderly patients: a feasibility study

RESEARCH QUESTIONS: To investigate how the daily physical activities of elderly patients can be enhanced by systematic counselling conducted by general practitioners (GPs). METHODS: In this feasibility study with pre-post design, 29 people (14 females, mean age 72.2 years, SD = 6.1) were enrolled during routine visits by two general practitioners. A baseline assessment of current physical activity based on the stages according to the Transtheoretical Model was followed by a counselling session. The target behaviour was defined by performance of 30 minutes of daily moderate-intensity activities that increase the breathing rate, on five days per week. At the 2-month follow-up, subjects were assessed for improvement in stage of physical activity since baseline. After the end of the intervention, participating GPs and patients were asked questions focusing on the feasibility, acceptance and usefulness of counselling. RESULTS: Interview results showed that the two GPs considered the counselling protocol easy to handle and useful for promoting physical activity. Counselling sessions were especially encouraging for the not sufficiently active people. Most of them would like to have additional counselling session. At baseline, 9 of 29 people were sufficiently active. After 2 months, this proportion was 21 of 29. The mean of the number of minutes of physical activity during the previous 4 weeks increased from 247 to 436 minutes (weekly). CONCLUSIONS: The programme was judged positively by the general practitioners and the participating elderly patients. Systematic counselling by general practitioners led to an increase in the physical activity behaviour. Therefore, a more rigorous randomised controlled trial with adequate followup is recommended.

Bovine mastitis: the diagnostic properties of a PCR-based assay to monitor the Staphylococcus aureus genotype B status of a herd, using bulk tank milk

Staphylococcus aureus genotype B (GTB) is a contagious mastitis pathogen in cattle, occurring in up to 87% of individuals. Because treatment is generally insufficient, culling is often required, leading to large economic loss in the Swiss dairy industry. As the detection of this pathogen in bulk tank milk (BTM) would greatly facilitate its control, a novel real-time quantitative PCR-based assay for BTM has previously been developed and is now being evaluated for its diagnostic properties at the herd level. Herds were initially classified as to their Staph. aureus GTB status by a reference method. Using BTM and herd pools of single-quarter and 4-quarter milk, the herds were then grouped by the novel assay, and the resulting classifications were compared. A total of 54 dairy herds were evaluated. Using the reference method, 21 herds were found to be GTB positive, whereas 33 were found to be negative. Considering the novel assay using both herd pools, all herds were grouped correctly, resulting in maximal diagnostic sensitivities (100%) and specificities (100%). For BTM samples, diagnostic sensitivities and specificities were 90 and 100%, respectively. Two herds were false negative in BTM, because cows with clinical signs of mastitis were not milked into the tank. Besides its excellent diagnostic properties, the assay is characterized by its low detection level, high efficiency, and its suitability for automation. Using the novel knowledge and assay, eradication of Staph. aureus GTB from a dairy herd may be considered as a realistic goal.

How important is importance for prospective memory?

Forgetting to carry out an intention as planned can have serious consequences in everyday life. People sometimes even forget intentions that they consider as very important. Here, we review the literature on the impact of importance on prospective memory performance. We highlight different methods used to manipulate the importance of a prospective memory task such as providing rewards, importance relative to other ongoing activities, absolute importance, and providing social motives. Moreover, we address the relationship between importance and other factors known to affect prospective memory and ongoing task performance such as type of prospective memory task (time-, event-, or activity-based), cognitive loads, and processing overlaps. Finally, we provide a connection to motivation, we summarize the effects of task importance and we identify important venues for future research.

A Multiplex Real-Time PCR with High Resolution Melting Analysis for the Characterization of Antimicrobial Resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae.

Resistance to antibiotics used against Neisseria gonorrhoeae infections is a major public health concern. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) testing relies on time-consuming culture-based methods. Development of rapid molecular tests for detecting AMR determinants could provide valuable tools for surveillance, epidemiological studies and to inform individual case management. We developed a fast (<1.5 hrs) SYBR-green based real-time PCR method with high resolution melting (HRM) analysis. One triplex and three duplex reactions included two sequences for N. gonorrhoeae identification and seven determinants of resistance to extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ESCs), azithromycin, ciprofloxacin, and spectinomycin. The method was validated by testing 39 previously fully-characterized N. gonorrhoeae strains, 19 commensal Neisseria spp., and an additional panel of 193 gonococcal isolates. Results were compared with culture-based AMR determination. The assay correctly identified N. gonorrhoeae and the presence or absence of the seven AMR determinants. There was some cross-reactivity with non-gonococcal Neisseria species and the detection limit was 10(3)-10(4) gDNA copies/reaction. Overall, the platform accurately detected resistance to ciprofloxacin (sensitivity and specificity, 100%), ceftriaxone (sensitivity 100%, specificity 90%), cefixime (sensitivity 92%, specificity 94%), azithromycin and spectinomycin (both sensitivity and specificity, 100%). In conclusion, our methodology accurately detects mutations generating resistance to antibiotics used to treat gonorrhea. Low assay sensitivity prevents direct diagnostic testing of clinical specimens but this method can be used to screen collections of gonococcal isolates for AMR more quickly than with current culture-based AMR testing.

Estimation of the postmortem interval by means of ¹H MRS of decomposing brain tissue: influence of ambient temperature

Standard methods for the estimation of the postmortem interval (PMI, time since death), based on the cooling of the corpse, are limited to about 48 h after death. As an alternative, noninvasive postmortem observation of alterations of brain metabolites by means of (1)H MRS has been suggested for an estimation of the PMI at room temperature, so far without including the effect of other ambient temperatures. In order to study the temperature effect, localized (1)H MRS was used to follow brain decomposition in a sheep brain model at four different temperatures between 4 and 26°C with repeated measurements up to 2100 h postmortem. The simultaneous determination of 25 different biochemical compounds at each measurement allowed the time courses of concentration changes to be followed. A sudden and almost simultaneous change of the concentrations of seven compounds was observed after a time span that decreased exponentially from 700 h at 4°C to 30 h at 26°C ambient temperature. As this represents, most probably, the onset of highly variable bacterial decomposition, and thus defines the upper limit for a reliable PMI estimation, data were analyzed only up to this start of bacterial decomposition. As 13 compounds showed unequivocal, reproducible concentration changes during this period while eight showed a linear increase with a slope that was unambiguously related to ambient temperature. Therefore, a single analytical function with PMI and temperature as variables can describe the time courses of metabolite concentrations. Using the inverse of this function, metabolite concentrations determined from a single MR spectrum can be used, together with known ambient temperatures, to calculate the PMI of a corpse. It is concluded that the effect of ambient temperature can be reliably included in the PMI determination by (1)H MRS.

Impact of suborbital climate changes in the North Atlantic on ice sheet dynamics at the Mid-Pleistocene Transition

[1] Early and Mid-Pleistocene climate, ocean hydrography and ice sheet dynamics have been reconstructed using a high-resolution data set (planktonic and benthicδ18O time series, faunal-based sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions and ice-rafted debris (IRD)) record from a high-deposition-rate sedimentary succession recovered at the Gardar Drift formation in the subpolar North Atlantic (Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Leg 306, Site U1314). Our sedimentary record spans from late in Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 31 to MIS 19 (1069–779 ka). Different trends of the benthic and planktonic oxygen isotopes, SST and IRD records before and after MIS 25 (∼940 ka) evidence the large increase in Northern Hemisphere ice-volume, linked to the cyclicity change from the 41-kyr to the 100-kyr that occurred during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). Beside longer glacial-interglacial (G-IG) variability, millennial-scale fluctuations were a pervasive feature across our study. Negative excursions in the benthicδ18O time series observed at the times of IRD events may be related to glacio-eustatic changes due to ice sheets retreats and/or to changes in deep hydrography. Time series analysis on surface water proxies (IRD, SST and planktonicδ18O) of the interval between MIS 31 to MIS 26 shows that the timing of these millennial-scale climate changes are related to half-precessional (10 kyr) components of the insolation forcing, which are interpreted as cross-equatorial heat transport toward high latitudes during both equinox insolation maxima at the equator.

Changes in respiratory mechanics and gas exchange during the acute respiratory distress syndrome

BACKGROUND: The time course of impairment of respiratory mechanics and gas exchange in the acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) remains poorly defined. We assessed the changes in respiratory mechanics and gas exchange during ARDS. We hypothesized that due to the changes in respiratory mechanics over time, ventilatory strategies based on rigid volume or pressure limits might fail to prevent overdistension throughout the disease process. METHODS: Seventeen severe ARDS patients {PaO2/FiO2 10.1 (9.2-14.3) kPa; 76 (69-107) mmHg [median (25th-75th percentiles)] and bilateral infiltrates} were studied during the acute, intermediate, and late stages of ARDS (at 1-3, 4-6 and 7 days after diagnosis). Severity of lung injury, gas exchange, and hemodynamics were assessed. Pressure-volume (PV) curves of the respiratory system were obtained, and upper and lower inflection points (UIP, LIP) and recruitment were estimated. RESULTS: (1) UIP decreased from early to established (intermediate and late) ARDS [30 (28-30) cmH2O, 27 (25-30) cmH2O and 25 (23-28) cmH2O (P=0.014)]; (2) oxygenation improved in survivors and in patients with non-pulmonary etiology in late ARDS, whereas all patients developed hypercapnia from early to established ARDS; and (3) dead-space ventilation and pulmonary shunt were larger in patients with pulmonary etiology during late ARDS. CONCLUSION: We found a decrease in UIP from acute to established ARDS. If applied to our data, the inspiratory pressure limit advocated by the ARDSnet (30 cmH2O) would produce ventilation over the UIP, with a consequent increased risk of overdistension in 12%, 43% and 65% of our patients during the acute, intermediate and late phases of ARDS, respectively. Lung protective strategies based on fixed tidal volume or pressure limits may thus not fully avoid the risk of lung overdistension throughout ARDS.