Evolutionary demography of long-lived monocarpic perennials: a time-lagged integral projection model

1. The evolution of flowering strategies (when and at what size to flower) in monocarpic perennials is determined by balancing current reproduction with expected future reproduction, and these are largely determined by size-specific patterns of growth and survival. However, because of the difficulty in following long-lived individuals throughout their lives, this theory has largely been tested using short-lived species (< 5 years). 2. Here, we tested this theory using the long-lived monocarpic perennial Campanula thyrsoides which can live up to 16 years. We used a novel approach that combined permanent plot and herb chronology data from a 3-year field study to parameterize and validate integral projection models (IPMs). 3. Similar to other monocarpic species, the rosette leaves of C. thyrsoides wither over winter and so size cannot be measured in the year of flowering. We therefore extended the existing IPM framework to incorporate an additional time delay that arises because flowering demography must be predicted from rosette size in the year before flowering. 4. We found that all main demographic functions (growth, survival probability, flowering probability and fecundity) were strongly size-dependent and there was a pronounced threshold size of flowering. There was good agreement between the predicted distribution of flowering ages obtained from the IPMs and that estimated in the field. Mostly, there was good agreement between the IPM predictions and the direct quantitative field measurements regarding the demographic parameters lambda, R-0 and T. We therefore conclude that the model captures the main demographic features of the field populations. 5. Elasticity analysis indicated that changes in the survival and growth function had the largest effect (c. 80%) on lambda and this was considerably larger than in short-lived monocarps. We found only weak selection pressure operating on the observed flowering strategy which was close to the predicted evolutionary stable strategy. 6. Synthesis. The extended IPM accurately described the demography of a long-lived monocarpic perennial using data collected over a relatively short period. We could show that the evolution of flowering strategies in short- and long-lived monocarps seem to follow the same general rules but with a longevity-related emphasis on survival over fecundity.

In need of psychiatric help--leave a message after the beep

Every day, a substantial proportion of the general population experiences the distressing and frightening signs of an upcoming psychiatric illness. The consequences can be enormous because severe psychiatric disorders typically cause the loss of the ability to work and often mean a long-term burden for both the patients and their families. Even though most developed countries have an exceptionally high density of general practitioners and psychiatrists in private practice, getting a mental health appointment and seeing a doctor is often very difficult for patients with acute psychiatric symptoms. This study aimed at quantifying the time delay involved in seeking medical attendance when psychiatric disorders begin to develop.

Slow fertilization of stickleback eggs: the result of sexual conflict?

BACKGROUND: The fertilization success in sperm competition in externally fertilizing fish depends on number and quality of sperm. The time delay between sequential ejaculations may further influence the outcome of sperm competition. Such a time interval can load the raffle over fertilization if fertilization takes place very fast. Short fertilization times are generally assumed for externally fertilizing fish such as the three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). In this pair-spawning fish, territorial males often try to steal fertilizations in nests of neighbouring males. This sneaking behaviour causes sperm competition. Sneakers will only get a share of paternity when eggs are not fertilized immediately after sperm release. Contrary to males, females may be interested in multiple paternity of their clutch of eggs. There thus may be a sexual conflict over the speed of fertilization. RESULTS: In this study we used two different in vitro fertilization experiments to assess how fast eggs are fertilized in sticklebacks. We show that complete fertilization takes more than 5 min which is atypically long for externally fertilizing fishes. CONCLUSION: This result suggests that the time difference does not imply high costs to the second stickleback male to ejaculate. Slow fertilization (and concomitant prolonged longevity of sperm) may be the result of sexual conflict in which females aimed at complete fertilization and/or multiple paternity.

Cortical and subcortical correlates of electroencephalographic alpha rhythm modulation

Neural correlates of electroencephalographic (EEG) alpha rhythm are poorly understood. Here, we related EEG alpha rhythm in awake humans to blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signal change determined by functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Topographical EEG was recorded simultaneously with fMRI during an open versus closed eyes and an auditory stimulation versus silence condition. EEG was separated into spatial components of maximal temporal independence using independent component analysis. Alpha component amplitudes and stimulus conditions served as general linear model regressors of the fMRI signal time course. In both paradigms, EEG alpha component amplitudes were associated with BOLD signal decreases in occipital areas, but not in thalamus, when a standard BOLD response curve (maximum effect at approximately 6 s) was assumed. The part of the alpha regressor independent of the protocol condition, however, revealed significant positive thalamic and mesencephalic correlations with a mean time delay of approximately 2.5 s between EEG and BOLD signals. The inverse relationship between EEG alpha amplitude and BOLD signals in primary and secondary visual areas suggests that widespread thalamocortical synchronization is associated with decreased brain metabolism. While the temporal relationship of this association is consistent with metabolic changes occurring simultaneously with changes in the alpha rhythm, sites in the medial thalamus and in the anterior midbrain were found to correlate with short time lag. Assuming a canonical hemodynamic response function, this finding is indicative of activity preceding the actual EEG change by some seconds.

Dosimetric impact of geometric errors due to respiratory motion prediction on dynamic multileaf collimator-based four-dimensional radiation delivery

The synchronization of dynamic multileaf collimator (DMLC) response with respiratory motion is critical to ensure the accuracy of DMLC-based four dimensional (4D) radiation delivery. In practice, however, a finite time delay (response time) between the acquisition of tumor position and multileaf collimator response necessitates predictive models of respiratory tumor motion to synchronize radiation delivery. Predicting a complex process such as respiratory motion introduces geometric errors, which have been reported in several publications. However, the dosimetric effect of such errors on 4D radiation delivery has not yet been investigated. Thus, our aim in this work was to quantify the dosimetric effects of geometric error due to prediction under several different conditions. Conformal and intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plans for a lung patient were generated for anterior-posterior/posterior-anterior (AP/PA) beam arrangements at 6 and 18 MV energies to provide planned dose distributions. Respiratory motion data was obtained from 60 diaphragm-motion fluoroscopy recordings from five patients. A linear adaptive filter was employed to predict the tumor position. The geometric error of prediction was defined as the absolute difference between predicted and actual positions at each diaphragm position. Distributions of geometric error of prediction were obtained for all of the respiratory motion data. Planned dose distributions were then convolved with distributions for the geometric error of prediction to obtain convolved dose distributions. The dosimetric effect of such geometric errors was determined as a function of several variables: response time (0-0.6 s), beam energy (6/18 MV), treatment delivery (3D/4D), treatment type (conformal/IMRT), beam direction (AP/PA), and breathing training type (free breathing/audio instruction/visual feedback). Dose difference and distance-to-agreement analysis was employed to quantify results. Based on our data, the dosimetric impact of prediction (a) increased with response time, (b) was larger for 3D radiation therapy as compared with 4D radiation therapy, (c) was relatively insensitive to change in beam energy and beam direction, (d) was greater for IMRT distributions as compared with conformal distributions, (e) was smaller than the dosimetric impact of latency, and (f) was greatest for respiration motion with audio instructions, followed by visual feedback and free breathing. Geometric errors of prediction that occur during 4D radiation delivery introduce dosimetric errors that are dependent on several factors, such as response time, treatment-delivery type, and beam energy. Even for relatively small response times of 0.6 s into the future, dosimetric errors due to prediction could approach delivery errors when respiratory motion is not accounted for at all. To reduce the dosimetric impact, better predictive models and/or shorter response times are required.

Climate and vegetation changes during the Lateglacial and early–middle Holocene at Lake Ledro (southern Alps, Italy)

Adding to the on-going debate regarding vegetation recolonisation (more particularly the timing) in Europe and climate change since the Lateglacial, this study investigates a long sediment core (LL081) from Lake Ledro (652ma.s.l., southern Alps, Italy). Environmental changes were reconstructed using multiproxy analysis (pollen-based vegetation and climate reconstruction, lake levels, magnetic susceptibility and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) measurements) recorded climate and land-use changes during the Lateglacial and early-middle Holocene. The well-dated and high-resolution pollen record of Lake Ledro is compared with vegetation records from the southern and northern Alps to trace the history of tree species distribution. An altitudedependent progressive time delay of the first continuous occurrence of Abies (fir) and of the Larix (larch) development has been observed since the Lateglacial in the southern Alps. This pattern suggests that the mid-altitude Lake Ledro area was not a refuge and that trees originated from lowlands or hilly areas (e.g. Euganean Hills) in northern Italy. Preboreal oscillations (ca. 11 000 cal BP), Boreal oscillations (ca. 10 200, 9300 cal BP) and the 8.2 kyr cold event suggest a centennial-scale climate forcing in the studied area. Picea (spruce) expansion occurred preferentially around 10 200 and 8200 cal BP in the south-eastern Alps, and therefore reflects the long-lasting cumulative effects of successive boreal and the 8.2 kyr cold event. The extension of Abies is contemporaneous with the 8.2 kyr event, but its development in the southern Alps benefits from the wettest interval 8200-7300 cal BP evidenced in high lake levels, flood activity and pollen-based climate reconstructions. Since ca. 7500 cal BP, a weak signal of pollen-based anthropogenic activities suggest weak human impact. The period between ca. 5700 and ca. 4100 cal BP is considered as a transition period to colder and wetter conditions (particularly during summers) that favoured a dense beech (Fagus) forest development which in return caused a distinctive yew (Taxus) decline.We conclude that climate was the dominant factor controlling vegetation changes and erosion processes during the early and middle Holocene (up to ca. 4100 cal BP).

Orbital changes, variation in solar activity and increased anthropogenic activities: controls on the Holocene flood frequency in the Lake Ledro area, Northern Italy

Adding to the on-going debate regarding vegetation recolonisation (more particularly the timing) in Europe and climate change since the Lateglacial, this study investigates a long sediment core (LL081) from Lake Ledro (652ma.s.l., southern Alps, Italy). Environmental changes were reconstructed using multiproxy analysis (pollen-based vegetation and climate reconstruction, lake levels, magnetic susceptibility and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) measurements) recorded climate and land-use changes during the Lateglacial and early-middle Holocene. The well-dated and high-resolution pollen record of Lake Ledro is compared with vegetation records from the southern and northern Alps to trace the history of tree species distribution. An altitudedependent progressive time delay of the first continuous occurrence of Abies (fir) and of the Larix (larch) development has been observed since the Lateglacial in the southern Alps. This pattern suggests that the mid-altitude Lake Ledro area was not a refuge and that trees originated from lowlands or hilly areas (e.g. Euganean Hills) in northern Italy. Preboreal oscillations (ca. 11 000 cal BP), Boreal oscillations (ca. 10 200, 9300 cal BP) and the 8.2 kyr cold event suggest a centennial-scale climate forcing in the studied area. Picea (spruce) expansion occurred preferentially around 10 200 and 8200 cal BP in the south-eastern Alps, and therefore reflects the long-lasting cumulative effects of successive boreal and the 8.2 kyr cold event. The extension of Abies is contemporaneous with the 8.2 kyr event, but its development in the southern Alps benefits from the wettest interval 8200-7300 cal BP evidenced in high lake levels, flood activity and pollen-based climate reconstructions. Since ca. 7500 cal BP, a weak signal of pollen-based anthropogenic activities suggest weak human impact. The period between ca. 5700 and ca. 4100 cal BP is considered as a transition period to colder and wetter conditions (particularly during summers) that favoured a dense beech (Fagus) forest development which in return caused a distinctive yew (Taxus) decline.We conclude that climate was the dominant factor controlling vegetation changes and erosion processes during the early and middle Holocene (up to ca. 4100 cal BP).

Delay in diagnosis of eosinophilic esophagitis increases risk for stricture formation in a time-dependent manner

BACKGROUND & AIMS Development of strictures is a major concern for patients with eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE). At diagnosis, EoE can present with an inflammatory phenotype (characterized by whitish exudates, furrows, and edema), a stricturing phenotype (characterized by rings and stenosis), or a combination of these. Little is known about progression of stricture formation; we evaluated stricture development over time in the absence of treatment and investigated risk factors for stricture formation. METHODS We performed a retrospective study using the Swiss EoE Database, collecting data on 200 patients with symptomatic EoE (153 men; mean age at diagnosis, 39 ± 15 years old). Stricture severity was graded based on the degree of difficulty associated with passing of the standard adult endoscope. RESULTS The median delay in diagnosis of EoE was 6 years (interquartile range, 2-12 years). With increasing duration of delay in diagnosis, the prevalence of fibrotic features of EoE, based on endoscopy, increased from 46.5% (diagnostic delay, 0-2 years) to 87.5% (diagnostic delay, >20 years; P = .020). Similarly, the prevalence of esophageal strictures increased with duration of diagnostic delay, from 17.2% (diagnostic delay, 0-2 years) to 70.8% (diagnostic delay, >20 years; P < .001). Diagnostic delay was the only risk factor for strictures at the time of EoE diagnosis (odds ratio = 1.08; 95% confidence interval: 1.040-1.122; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of esophageal strictures correlates with the duration of untreated disease. These findings indicate the need to minimize delay in diagnosis of EoE.

A real-time video quality estimator for emerging wireless multimedia systems

Wireless Mesh Networks (WMNs) are increasingly deployed to enable thousands of users to share, create, and access live video streaming with different characteristics and content, such as video surveillance and football matches. In this context, there is a need for new mechanisms for assessing the quality level of videos because operators are seeking to control their delivery process and optimize their network resources, while increasing the user’s satisfaction. However, the development of in-service and non-intrusive Quality of Experience assessment schemes for real-time Internet videos with different complexity and motion levels, Group of Picture lengths, and characteristics, remains a significant challenge. To address this issue, this article proposes a non-intrusive parametric real-time video quality estimator, called MultiQoE that correlates wireless networks’ impairments, videos’ characteristics, and users’ perception into a predicted Mean Opinion Score. An instance of MultiQoE was implemented in WMNs and performance evaluation results demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of MultiQoE in predicting the user’s perception of live video streaming services when compared to subjective, objective, and well-known parametric solutions.

Real-time simulation of large open quantum spin systems driven by dissipation

We consider a large quantum system with spins 12 whose dynamics is driven entirely by measurements of the total spin of spin pairs. This gives rise to a dissipative coupling to the environment. When one averages over the measurement results, the corresponding real-time path integral does not suffer from a sign problem. Using an efficient cluster algorithm, we study the real-time evolution from an initial antiferromagnetic state of the two-dimensional Heisenberg model, which is driven to a disordered phase, not by a Hamiltonian, but by sporadic measurements or by continuous Lindblad evolution.

Bond Strength of Resin Composite to Dentin with Different Adhesive Systems: Influence of Relative Humidity and Application Time.

PURPOSE To investigate the influence of relative humidity and application time on bond strength to dentin of different classes of adhesive systems. MATERIALS AND METHODS A total of 360 extracted human molars were ground to mid-coronal dentin. The dentin specimens were treated with one of six adhesive systems (Syntac Classic, OptiBond FL, Clearfil SE Bond, AdheSE, Xeno Select, or Scotchbond Universal), and resin composite (Filtek Z250) was applied to the treated dentin surface under four experimental conditions (45% relative humidity/application time according to manufacturers' instructions; 45% relative humidity/reduced application time; 85% relative humidity/application time according to manufacturers' instructions; 85% relative humidity/reduced application time). After storage (37°C, 100% humidity, 24 h), shear bond strength (SBS) was measured and data analyzed with nonparametric ANOVA followed by Kruskal-Wallis tests and Mann-Whitney U-tests with Bonferroni-Holm correction for multiple testing (level of significance: α = 0.05). RESULTS Increased relative humidity and reduced application time had no effect on SBS for Clearfil SE Bond and Scotchbond Universal (p = 1.00). For Syntac Classic, OptiBond FL, AdheSE, and Xeno Select there was no effect on SBS of reduced application time of the adhesive system (p ≥ 0.403). However, increased relative humidity significantly reduced SBS for Syntac Classic, OptiBond FL, and Xeno Select irrespective of application time (p ≤ 0.003), whereas for AdheSE, increased relative humidity significantly reduced SBS at recommended application time only (p = 0.002). CONCLUSION Generally, increased relative humidity had a detrimental effect on SBS to dentin, but reduced application time had no effect.

Real-time dynamics of open quantum spin systems driven by dissipative processes

We study the real-time evolution of large open quantum spin systems in two spatial dimensions, whose dynamics is entirely driven by a dissipative coupling to the environment. We consider different dissipative processes and investigate the real-time evolution from an ordered phase of the Heisenberg or XY model towards a disordered phase at late times, disregarding unitary Hamiltonian dynamics. The corresponding Kossakowski-Lindblad equation is solved via an efficient cluster algorithm. We find that the symmetry of the dissipative process determines the time scales, which govern the approach towards a new equilibrium phase at late times. Most notably, we find a slow equilibration if the dissipative process conserves any of the magnetization Fourier modes. In these cases, the dynamics can be interpreted as a diffusion process of the conserved quantity.

Real-time simulation of nonequilibrium transport of magnetization in large open quantum spin systems driven by dissipation

Using quantum Monte Carlo, we study the nonequilibrium transport of magnetization in large open strongly correlated quantum spin-12 systems driven by purely dissipative processes that conserve the uniform or staggered magnetization, disregarding unitary Hamiltonian dynamics. We prepare both a low-temperature Heisenberg ferromagnet and an antiferromagnet in two parts of the system that are initially isolated from each other. We then bring the two subsystems in contact and study their real-time dissipative dynamics for different geometries. The flow of the uniform or staggered magnetization from one part of the system to the other is described by a diffusion equation that can be derived analytically.