The role of warning behaviors in threat assessment: an exploration and suggested typology

The concept of warning behaviors offers an additional perspective in threat assessment. Warning behaviors are acts which constitute evidence of increasing or accelerating risk. They are acute, dynamic, and particularly toxic changes in patterns of behavior which may aid in structuring a professional's judgment that an individual of concern now poses a threat - whether the actual target has been identified or not. They require an operational response. A typology of eight warning behaviors for assessing the threat of intended violence is proposed: pathway, fixation, identification, novel aggression, energy burst, leakage, directly communicated threat, and last resort warning behaviors. Previous research on risk factors associated with such warning behaviors is reviewed, and examples of each warning behavior from various intended violence cases are presented, including public figure assassination, adolescent and adult mass murder, corporate celebrity stalking, and both domestic and foreign acts of terrorism. Practical applications and future research into warning behaviors are suggested. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Free-Ranging Wild Boar: A Disease Threat to Domestic Pigs in Switzerland?

The risk of transmission of pathogens from free-ranging wild boars (Sus scrofa scrofa) to outdoor domestic pigs (S. scrofa domesticus) is of increasing concern in many European countries. We assess this risk, using Switzerland as an example. We estimated 1) the prevalence of important pathogens in wild boars and 2) the risk of interactions between wild boars and outdoor pigs. First, we tested 252 wild boars from selected areas between 2008 and 2010 for infection with Brucella spp. Bacterial prevalence was estimated to 28.8% (confidence interval [CI] 23.0-34.0) when using bacterial culture (B. suis Biovar 2) and real-time polymerase chain reaction. Antibody prevalence was 35.8% (CI 30.0-42.0), which was significantly higher than in previous studies in Switzerland. We also tested 233 wild boars for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV). Antibody prevalence was 0.43% (CI 0.01-2.4) for EU-PRRSV and real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction results were negative. These findings suggest that B. suis is increasingly widespread in wild boars and PRRSV is currently not of concern. Second, we documented the spatial overlap between free-ranging wild boars and outdoor piggeries by mapping data on their respective occurrence. Wild boars are most widespread in the mountain range along the western and northern Swiss borders, while most piggeries are located in central lowlands. A risk of interaction is mainly expected at the junction between these two bioregions. This risk may increase if wild boars expand eastward and southward beyond anthropogenic barriers believed to limit their range. Therefore, we evaluated the potential of expansion of the wild boar population. Population trends suggest a continuous increase of wild boars for the past 15 yr. Surveillance of selected wildlife passages using cameras on highways and main roads indicates that these barriers are permeable (average of up to 13 wild boar crossings per 100 days). Thus an increase of wild boar range should be considered. There may be a risk of B. suis spillover from wild boars in Switzerland, which could increase in the future. Data on the occurrence of interactions between pigs and wild boars are needed to assess this risk.

To look or not to look at threat? Scanpath differences within a group of spider phobics

Predicting the behavior of phobic patients in a confrontational situation is challenging. While avoidance as a major clinical component of phobias suggests that patients orient away from threat, findings based on cognitive paradigms indicate an attentional bias towards threat. Here we present eye movement data from 21 spider phobics and 21 control subjects, based on 3 basic oculomotor tasks and a visual exploration task that included close-up views of spiders. Relative to the control group, patients showed accelerated reflexive saccades in one of the basic oculomotor tasks, while the fear-relevant exploration task evoked a general slowing in their scanning behavior and pronounced oculomotor avoidance. However, this avoidance strongly varied within the patient group and was not associated with the scores from spider avoidance-sensitive questionnaire scales. We suggest that variation of oculomotor avoidance between phobics reflects different strategies of how they cope with threat in confrontational situations.

Molecular diagnostics for gonorrhoea: implications for antimicrobial resistance and the threat of untreatable gonorrhoea

This Essay from Nicola Low and colleagues discusses the importance of the nucleic acid amplification tests for rapid detection of N. gonorrhoeae and its resistance determinants, as well as the importance of ensuring their rational use, as priorities for controlling both gonorrhoea and antimicrobial resistance. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Intolerance Toward Immigrants in Switzerland: Diminished Threat Through Social Contacts?

Intolerance toward immigrants has recently reached noticeable highs in Switzerland. Referring to the conflict theory, the perception of a specific group as a threat tends to lead to intolerance toward that group. The expectation of a negative relationship between threat and tolerance is nevertheless not assumed to be universally valid for all members of society. In particular, the contact theory assumes that intercultural encounters should promote positive attitudes toward culturally different individuals and groups. Using a new and unique data set, our Heckman selection models reveal that Swiss who view rising immigration to mean a loss of economic privileges and an erosion of Swiss cultural values are less tolerant toward immigrants. Moreover, our results indicate that contact with immigrants may moderate this effect. However, not all group settings are able to reduce the perceived threats in a similar way, and not all sorts of social contact are able to foster tolerance toward immigrants.

Envy on Facebook: a hidden threat to users’ life satisfaction?

The wealth of social information presented on Facebook is astound-ing. While these affordances allow users to keep up-to-date, they also produce a basis for social comparison and envy on an unprecedented scale. Even though envy may endanger users’ life satisfaction and lead to platform avoidance, no study exists uncovering this dynamics. To close this gap, we build on responses of 584 Facebook users collected as part of two independent studies. In study 1, we explore the scale, scope, and nature of envy incidents triggered by Face-book. In study 2, the role of envy feelings is examined as a mediator between intensity of passive following on Facebook and users’ life satisfaction. Con-firming full mediation, we demonstrate that passive following exacerbates envy feelings, which decrease life satisfaction. From a provider’s perspective, our findings signal that users frequently perceive Facebook as a stressful environ-ment, which may, in the long-run, endanger platform sustainability.

Minimizing the Threat of a Positive Majority Deficit in Two-tier Voting Systems with Equipopulous Units

The mean majority deficit in a two-tier voting system is a function of the partition of the population. We derive a new square-root rule: For odd-numbered population sizes and equipopulous units the mean majority deficit is maximal when the member size of the units in the partition is close to the square root of the population size. Furthermore, within the partitions into roughly equipopulous units, partitions with small even numbers of units or small even-sized units yield high mean majority deficits. We discuss the implications for the winner-takes-all system in the US Electoral College.