Future storm surge impacts on insurable losses for the North Sea region

The influence of climate change on storm surges including increased mean sea level change and the associated insurable losses are assessed for the North Sea basin. In doing so, the newly developed approach couples a dynamical storm surge model with a loss model. The key element of the approach is the generation of a probabilistic storm surge event set. Together with parametrizations of the inland propagation and the coastal protection failure probability this enables the estimation of annual expected losses. The sensitivity to the parametrizations is rather weak except when the assumption of high level of increased mean sea level change is made. Applying this approach to future scenarios shows a substantial increase of insurable losses with respect to the present day. Superimposing different mean sea level changes shows a nonlinear behavior at the country level, as the future storm surge changes are higher for Germany and Denmark. Thus, the study exhibits the necessity to assess the socio-economic impacts of coastal floods by combining the expected sea level rise with storm surge projections.

Isolation and characterization of nine polymorphic microsatellite markers for the deep-sea shrimp Nematocarcinus lanceopes (Crustacea: Decapoda: Caridea)

Background: The shrimp Nematocarcinus lanceopes Bate, 1888 is found in the deep sea around Antarctica and sub-Antarctic islands. Previous studies on mitochondrial data and species distribution models provided evidence for a homogenous circum-Antarctic population of N. lanceopes. However, to analyze the fine-scale population genetic structure and to examine influences of abiotic environmental conditions on population composition and genetic diversity, a set of fast evolving nuclear microsatellite markers is required. Findings: We report the isolation and characterization of nine polymorphic microsatellite markers from the Antarctic deep-sea shrimp species Nematocarcinus lanceopes (Crustacea: Decapoda: Caridea). Microsatellite markers were screened in 55 individuals from different locations around the Antarctic continent. All markers were polymorphic with 9 to 25 alleles per locus. The observed heterozygosity ranged from 0.545 to 0.927 and the expected heterozygosity from 0.549 to 0.934. Conclusions: The reported markers provide a novel tool to study genetic structure and diversity in Nematocarcinus lanceopes populations in the Southern Ocean and monitor effects of ongoing climate change in the region on the populations inhabiting these.

Pelagic molybdenum concentration anomalies and the impact of sediment resuspension on the molybdenum budget in two tidal systems of the North Sea

The seasonal dynamics of molybdenum (Mo) were studied in the water column of two tidal basins of the German Wadden Sea (Sylt-Rømø and Spiekeroog) between 2007 and 2011. In contrast to its conservative behaviour in the open ocean, both, losses of more than 50% of the usual concentration level of Mo in seawater and enrichments up to 20% were observed repeatedly in the water column of the study areas. During early summer, Mo removal by adsorption on algae-derived organic matter (e.g. after Phaeocystis blooms) is postulated to be a possible mechanism. Mo bound to organic aggregates is likely transferred to the surface sediment where microbial decomposition enriches Mo in the pore water. First δ98/95Mo data of the study area disclose residual Mo in the open water column being isotopically heavier than MOMo (Mean Ocean Molybdenum) during a negative Mo concentration anomaly, whereas suspended particulate matter shows distinctly lighter values. Based on field observations a Mo isotope enrichment factor of ε = −0.3‰ has been determined which was used to argue against sorption on metal oxide surfaces. It is suggested here that isotope fractionation is caused by biological activity and association to organic matter. Pelagic Mo concentration anomalies exceeding the theoretical salinity-based concentration level, on the other hand, cannot be explained by replenishment via North Sea waters alone and require a supply of excess Mo. Laboratory experiments with natural anoxic tidal flat sediments and modelled sediment displacement during storm events suggest fast and effective Mo release during the resuspension of anoxic sediments in oxic seawater as an important process for a recycling of sedimentary sulphide bound Mo into the water column.

Positive effect of the yellow morph on female reproductive success in the flower colour polymorphic Iris lutescens (Iridaceae), a deceptive species

The deceptive Iris lutescens (Iridaceae) shows a heritable and striking flower colour polymorphism, with both yellow- and purple-flowered individuals growing sympatrically. Deceptive species with flower colour polymorphism are mainly described in the family Orchidaceae and rarely found in other families. To explain the maintenance of flower colour polymorphism in I.lutescens, we investigated female reproductive success in natural populations of southern France, at both population and local scales (within populations). Female reproductive success was positively correlated with yellow morph frequency, at both the population scale and the local scale. Therefore, we failed to observe negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS), a mechanism commonly invoked to explain flower colour polymorphism in deceptive plant species. Flower size and local flower density could also affect female reproductive success in natural populations. Pollinator behaviour could explain the positive effect of the yellow morph, and our results suggest that flower colour polymorphism might not persist in I.lutescens, but alternative explanations not linked to pollinator behaviour are discussed. In particular, NFDS, although an appealingly simple explanation previously demonstrated in orchids, may not always contribute to maintaining flower colour polymorphism, even in deceptive species.