The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential

Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in damage potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in damage potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtür (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the damage potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in damage potential.

Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation

The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

Net CO 2 surface emissions at Bern, Switzerland inferred from ambient observations of CO 2 , δ(O 2 /N 2 ), and 222 Rn using a customized radon tracer inversion

The 222Radon tracer method is a powerful tool to estimate local and regional surface emissions of, e.g., greenhouse gases. In this paper we demonstrate that in practice, the method as it is commonly used, produces inaccurate results in case of nonhomogeneously spread emission sources, and we propose a different approach to account for this. We have applied the new methodology to ambient observations of CO2 and 222Radon to estimate CO2 surface emissions for the city of Bern, Switzerland. Furthermore, by utilizing combined measurements of CO2 and δ(O2/N2) we obtain valuable information about the spatial and temporal variability of the main emission sources. Mean net CO2 emissions based on 2 years of observations are estimated at (11.2 ± 2.9) kt km−2 a−1. Oxidative ratios indicate a significant influence from the regional biosphere in summer/spring and fossil fuel combustion processes in winter/autumn. Our data indicate that the emissions from fossil fuels are, to a large degree, related to the combustion of natural gas which is used for heating purposes.

Climate-induced interannual variability of marine primary and export production in three global coupled climate carbon cycle models

Fully coupled climate carbon cycle models are sophisticated tools that are used to predict future climate change and its impact on the land and ocean carbon cycles. These models should be able to adequately represent natural variability, requiring model validation by observations. The present study focuses on the ocean carbon cycle component, in particular the spatial and temporal variability in net primary productivity (PP) and export production (EP) of particulate organic carbon (POC). Results from three coupled climate carbon cycle models (IPSL, MPIM, NCAR) are compared with observation-based estimates derived from satellite measurements of ocean colour and results from inverse modelling (data assimilation). Satellite observations of ocean colour have shown that temporal variability of PP on the global scale is largely dominated by the permanently stratified, low-latitude ocean (Behrenfeld et al., 2006) with stronger stratification (higher sea surface temperature; SST) being associated with negative PP anomalies. Results from all three coupled models confirm the role of the low-latitude, permanently stratified ocean for anomalies in globally integrated PP, but only one model (IPSL) also reproduces the inverse relationship between stratification (SST) and PP. An adequate representation of iron and macronutrient co-limitation of phytoplankton growth in the tropical ocean has shown to be the crucial mechanism determining the capability of the models to reproduce observed interactions between climate and PP.

Sensitivity of atmospheric CO2 and climate to explosive volcanic eruptions

Impacts of low-latitude, explosive volcanic eruptions on climate and the carbon cycle are quantified by forcing a comprehensive, fully coupled carbon cycle-climate model with pulse-like stratospheric aerosol optical depth changes. The model represents the radiative and dynamical response of the climate system to volcanic eruptions and simulates a decrease of global and regional atmospheric surface temperature, regionally distinct changes in precipitation, a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and a decrease in atmospheric CO2 after volcanic eruptions. The volcanic-induced cooling reduces overturning rates in tropical soils, which dominates over reduced litter input due to soil moisture decrease, resulting in higher land carbon inventories for several decades. The perturbation in the ocean carbon inventory changes sign from an initial weak carbon sink to a carbon source. Positive carbon and negative temperature anomalies in subsurface waters last up to several decades. The multi-decadal decrease in atmospheric CO2 yields a small additional radiative forcing that amplifies the cooling and perturbs the Earth System on longer time scales than the atmospheric residence time of volcanic aerosols. In addition, century-scale global warming simulations with and without volcanic eruptions over the historical period show that the ocean integrates volcanic radiative cooling and responds for different physical and biogeochemical parameters such as steric sea level or dissolved oxygen. Results from a suite of sensitivity simulations with different magnitudes of stratospheric aerosol optical depth changes and from global warming simulations show that the carbon cycle-climate sensitivity γ, expressed as change in atmospheric CO2 per unit change in global mean surface temperature, depends on the magnitude and temporal evolution of the perturbation, and time scale of interest. On decadal time scales, modeled γ is several times larger for a Pinatubo-like eruption than for the industrial period and for a high emission, 21st century scenario.

Temporal and spatial variability of personal exposure to radio frequency electromagnetic fields

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the population's exposure to radio frequency electromagnetic fields (RF-EMF) in industrialized countries. OBJECTIVES: To examine levels of exposure and the importance of different RF-EMF sources and settings in a sample of volunteers living in a Swiss city. METHODS: RF-EMF exposure of 166 volunteers from Basel, Switzerland, was measured with personal exposure meters (exposimeters). Participants carried an exposimeter for 1 week (two separate weeks in 32 participants) and completed an activity diary. Mean values were calculated using the robust regression on order statistics (ROS) method. RESULTS: Mean weekly exposure to all RF-EMF sources was 0.13 mW/m(2) (0.22 V/m) (range of individual means 0.014-0.881 mW/m(2)). Exposure was mainly due to mobile phone base stations (32.0%), mobile phone handsets (29.1%) and digital enhanced cordless telecommunications (DECT) phones (22.7%). Persons owning a DECT phone (total mean 0.15 mW/m(2)) or mobile phone (0.14 mW/m(2)) were exposed more than those not owning a DECT or mobile phone (0.10 mW/m(2)). Mean values were highest in trains (1.16 mW/m(2)), airports (0.74 mW/m(2)) and tramways or buses (0.36 mW/m(2)), and higher during daytime (0.16 mW/m(2)) than nighttime (0.08 mW/m(2)). The Spearman correlation coefficient between mean exposure in the first and second week was 0.61. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to RF-EMF varied considerably between persons and locations but was fairly consistent within persons. Mobile phone handsets, mobile phone base stations and cordless phones were important sources of exposure in urban Switzerland.

Inverse modelling of the 14C bomb pulse in stalagmites to constrain the dynamics of soil carbon cycling at selected European cave sites

The decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM) is temperature dependent, but its response to a future warmer climate remains equivocal. Enhanced rates of decomposition of SOM under increased global temperatures might cause higher CO2 emissions to the atmosphere, and could therefore constitute a strong positive feedback. The magnitude of this feedback however remains poorly understood, primarily because of the difficulty in quantifying the temperature sensitivity of stored, recalcitrant carbon that comprises the bulk (>90%) of SOM in most soils. In this study we investigated the effects of climatic conditions on soil carbon dynamics using the attenuation of the 14C ‘bomb’ pulse as recorded in selected modern European speleothems. These new data were combined with published results to further examine soil carbon dynamics, and to explore the sensitivity of labile and recalcitrant organic matter decomposition to different climatic conditions. Temporal changes in 14C activity inferred from each speleothem was modelled using a three pool soil carbon inverse model (applying a Monte Carlo method) to constrain soil carbon turnover rates at each site. Speleothems from sites that are characterised by semi-arid conditions, sparse vegetation, thin soil cover and high mean annual air temperatures (MAATs), exhibit weak attenuation of atmospheric 14C ‘bomb’ peak (a low damping effect, D in the range: 55–77%) and low modelled mean respired carbon ages (MRCA), indicating that decomposition is dominated by young, recently fixed soil carbon. By contrast, humid and high MAAT sites that are characterised by a thick soil cover and dense, well developed vegetation, display the highest damping effect (D = c. 90%), and the highest MRCA values (in the range from 350 ± 126 years to 571 ± 128 years). This suggests that carbon incorporated into these stalagmites originates predominantly from decomposition of old, recalcitrant organic matter. SOM turnover rates cannot be ascribed to a single climate variable, e.g. (MAAT) but instead reflect a complex interplay of climate (e.g. MAAT and moisture budget) and vegetation development.

Tracking water pathways in steep hillslopes by d18O depth profiles of soil water

Assessing temporal variations in soil water flow is important, especially at the hillslope scale, to identify mechanisms of runoff and flood generation and pathways for nutrients and pollutants in soils. While surface processes are well considered and parameterized, the assessment of subsurface processes at the hillslope scale is still challenging since measurement of hydrological pathways is connected to high efforts in time, money and personnel work. The latter might not even be possible in alpine environments with harsh winter processes. Soil water stable isotope profiles may offer a time-integrating fingerprint of subsurface water pathways. In this study, we investigated the suitability of soil water stable isotope (d18O) depth profiles to identify water flow paths along two transects of steep subalpine hillslopes in the Swiss Alps. We applied a one-dimensional advection–dispersion model using d18O values of precipitation (ranging from _24.7 to _2.9‰) as input data to simulate the d18O profiles of soil water. The variability of d18O values with depth within each soil profile and a comparison of the simulated and measured d18O profiles were used to infer information about subsurface hydrological pathways. The temporal pattern of d18O in precipitation was found in several profiles, ranging from _14.5 to _4.0‰. This suggests that vertical percolation plays an important role even at slope angles of up to 46_. Lateral subsurface flow and/or mixing of soil water at lower slope angles might occur in deeper soil layers and at sites near a small stream. The difference between several observed and simulated d18O profiles revealed spatially highly variable infiltration patterns during the snowmelt periods: The d18O value of snow (_17.7 ± 1.9‰) was absent in several measured d18O profiles but present in the respective simulated d18O profiles. This indicated overland flow and/or preferential flow through the soil profile during the melt period. The applied methods proved to be a fast and promising tool to obtain time-integrated information on soil water flow paths at the hillslope scale in steep subalpine slopes.

The dominant role of semi-arid ecosystems in the trend and variability of the land CO2 sink

The growth rate of atmospheric carbondioxide(CO2) concentrations since industrialization is characterized by large interannual variability, mostly resulting from variability in CO 2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems (typically termed carbon sink). However, the contributions of regional ecosystems to that variability are not well known. Using an ensemble of ecosystem and land-surface models and an empirical observation-based product of global gross primary production, we show that the mean sink, trend, and interannual variability in CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems are dominated by distinct biogeographic regions. Whereas the mean sink is dominated by highly productive lands (mainly tropical forests), the trend and interannual variability of the sink are dominated by semi-arid ecosystems whose carbon balance is strongly associated with circulation-driven variations in both precipitation and temperature.

Summer drought reduces total and litter-derived soil CO2 effluxes in temperate grassland - clues from a 13C litter addition experiment

Current climate change models predict significant changes in rainfall patterns across Europe. To explore the effect of drought on soil CO2 efflux (FSoil) and on the contribution of litter to FSoil we used rain shelters to simulate a summer drought (May to July 2007) in an intensively managed grassland in Switzerland by reducing annual precipitation by around 30% similar to the hot and dry year 2003 in Central Europe. We added 13C-depleted as well as unlabelled grass/clover litter to quantify the litter-derived CO2 efflux (FLitter). Soil CO2 efflux and the 13C/12C isotope ratio (δ13C) of the respired CO2 after litter addition were measured during the growing season 2007. Drought significantly decreased FSoil in our litter addition experiment by 59% and FLitter by 81% during the drought period itself (May to July), indicating that drought had a stronger effect on the CO2 release from litter than on the belowground-derived CO2 efflux (FBG, i.e. soil organic matter (SOM) and root respiration). Despite large bursts in respired CO2 induced by the rewetting after prolonged drought, drought also reduced FSoil and FLitter during the entire 13C measurement period (April to October) by 26% and 37%, respectively. Overall, our findings show that drought decreased FSoil and altered its seasonality and its sources. Thus, the C balance of temperate grassland soils respond sensitively to changes in precipitation, a factor that needs to be considered in regional models predicting the impact of climate change on ecosystems C balance.

Applying erosion damage mapping to asses and quantify off-site effects of soil erosion in Switzerland

In order to fill existing knowledge gaps in the temporal and spatial distribution of soil erosion, its sources and causes, as well as in relation to its off-site impacts, erosion damage mapping of all visible erosion features was carried out at three study sites in Switzerland. The data illustrate that about one-quarter of the cultivated land was affected by water erosion. Observed mean annual soil loss rates are considered rather low (0.7–2.3 t/ha/y) compared to other European countries. However, substantial losses of >70 t/ha were recorded on individual plots. This paper focuses on the spatial aspects of soil erosion, by observing and comparing the study areas in a 1-year period from October 2005 to October 2006. The analyses illustrate that the sites differ considerably in average soil loss rates, but show similar patterns of off-site effects. In about one-third of the damaged plots an external source of surface runoff upslope contributed to the damage (run-on). Similarly, more than 50 per cent of the soil eroded on arable land deposited downslope on adjacent plots, roads, public/private infrastructure, etc., and 20 per cent of it reached open water bodies. Large amounts of eroded soil which deposit off-site, often related to slope depressions, are considered muddy floods and were frequently observed in Switzerland. Mapping, in conclusion, helps to sheds light on some of the important challenges of today, in particular: to comprehensively assess socioeconomic and ecological off-site effects of soil erosion, to attribute off-site impacts to on-site causes, and to raise awareness of all stakeholders involved, in order to improve ongoing discussions on policy formulation and implementation at the national and international levels.