Temporal trends in the characteristics of children at antiretroviral therapy initiation in southern Africa: the IeDEA-SA Collaboration

BACKGROUND Since 2005, increasing numbers of children have started antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa and, in recent years, WHO and country treatment guidelines have recommended ART initiation for all infants and very young children, and at higher CD4 thresholds for older children. We examined temporal changes in patient and regimen characteristics at ART start using data from 12 cohorts in 4 countries participating in the IeDEA-SA collaboration. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS Data from 30,300 ART-naïve children aged <16 years at ART initiation who started therapy between 2005 and 2010 were analysed. We examined changes in median values for continuous variables using the Cuzick's test for trend over time. We also examined changes in the proportions of patients with particular disease severity characteristics (expressed as a binary variable e.g. WHO Stage III/IV vs I/II) using logistic regression. Between 2005 and 2010 the number of children starting ART each year increased and median age declined from 63 months (2006) to 56 months (2010). Both the proportion of children <1 year and ≥10 years of age increased from 12 to 19% and 18 to 22% respectively. Children had less severe disease at ART initiation in later years with significant declines in the percentage with severe immunosuppression (81 to 63%), WHO Stage III/IV disease (75 to 62%), severe anemia (12 to 7%) and weight-for-age z-score<-3 (31 to 28%). Similar results were seen when restricting to infants with significant declines in the proportion with severe immunodeficiency (98 to 82%) and Stage III/IV disease (81 to 63%). First-line regimen use followed country guidelines. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE Between 2005 and 2010 increasing numbers of children have initiated ART with a decline in disease severity at start of therapy. However, even in 2010, a substantial number of infants and children started ART with advanced disease. These results highlight the importance of efforts to improve access to HIV diagnostic testing and ART in children.

Temporal trends of extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates in in- and outpatients in Switzerland, 2004 to 2011

Increasing trends for invasive infections with extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant (ESC-R) Enterobacteriaceae have been described in many countries worldwide. However, data on the rates of ESC-R isolates in non-invasive infections and in the outpatient setting are scarce. We used a laboratory-based nationwide surveillance system to compare temporal trends of ESC-R rates in Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae for in- and outpatients in Switzerland. Our data showed a significant increase in ESC-R rates from 1% to 5.8% in E. coli (p<0.001) and from 1.1% to 4.4% in K. pneumoniae (p=0.002) during an eight-year period (2004–2011). For E. coli, the increase was significantly higher in inpatients (from 1.2% to 6.6%), in patients residing in eastern Switzerland (from 1.0% to 6.2%), in patients older than 45 years (from 1.2% to 6.7%), and in male patients (from 1.2% to 8.1%). While the increase in inpatients was linear (p<0.001) for E. coli, the increase of ESC R K. pneumoniae isolates was the result of multiple outbreaks in several institutions. Notably, an increasing proportion of ESC-R E. coli was co-resistant to both trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole and quinolones (42% in 2004 to 49.1% in 2011, p=0.009), further limiting the available oral therapeutic options.

Temporal trends in the systemic inflammatory response syndrome, sepsis, and medical coding of sepsis.

BACKGROUND Recent reports using administrative claims data suggest the incidence of community- and hospital-onset sepsis is increasing. Whether this reflects changing epidemiology, more effective diagnostic methods, or changes in physician documentation and medical coding practices is unclear. METHODS We performed a temporal-trend study from 2008 to 2012 using administrative claims data and patient-level clinical data of adult patients admitted to Barnes-Jewish Hospital in St. Louis, Missouri. Temporal-trend and annual percent change were estimated using regression models with autoregressive integrated moving average errors. RESULTS We analyzed 62,261 inpatient admissions during the 5-year study period. 'Any SIRS' (i.e., SIRS on a single calendar day during the hospitalization) and 'multi-day SIRS' (i.e., SIRS on 3 or more calendar days), which both use patient-level data, and medical coding for sepsis (i.e., ICD-9-CM discharge diagnosis codes 995.91, 995.92, or 785.52) were present in 35.3 %, 17.3 %, and 3.3 % of admissions, respectively. The incidence of admissions coded for sepsis increased 9.7 % (95 % CI: 6.1, 13.4) per year, while the patient data-defined events of 'any SIRS' decreased by 1.8 % (95 % CI: -3.2, -0.5) and 'multi-day SIRS' did not change significantly over the study period. Clinically-defined sepsis (defined as SIRS plus bacteremia) and severe sepsis (defined as SIRS plus hypotension and bacteremia) decreased at statistically significant rates of 5.7 % (95 % CI: -9.0, -2.4) and 8.6 % (95 % CI: -4.4, -12.6) annually. All-cause mortality, SIRS mortality, and SIRS and clinically-defined sepsis case fatality did not change significantly during the study period. Sepsis mortality, based on ICD-9-CM codes, however, increased by 8.8 % (95 % CI: 1.9, 16.2) annually. CONCLUSIONS The incidence of sepsis, defined by ICD-9-CM codes, and sepsis mortality increased steadily without a concomitant increase in SIRS or clinically-defined sepsis. Our results highlight the need to develop strategies to integrate clinical patient-level data with administrative data to draw more accurate conclusions about the epidemiology of sepsis.

Gender-related mortality trends among diabetic patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: insights from a nationwide registry 1997-2010

BACKGROUND Data on temporal trends in outcomes, gender differences, and adherence to evidence-based therapy (EBT) of diabetic patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) are sparse. METHODS We performed a retrospective analysis of prospectively acquired data on 3565 diabetic (2412 males and 1153 females) STEMI patients enrolled in the Swiss AMIS Plus registry between 1997 and 2010 and compared in-hospital outcomes and adherence to EBT with the nondiabetic population (n=15,531). RESULTS In-hospital mortality dramatically decreased in diabetic patients, from 19.9% in 1997 to 9.0% in 2010 (p trend<0.001) with an age-adjusted decrease of 6% per year of admission. Similar trends were observed for age-adjusted reinfarction (OR 0.86, p<0.001), cardiogenic shock (OR 0.88, p<0.001), as well as death, reinfarction, or stroke (OR 0.92, p<0.001). However, the mortality benefit over time was observed in diabetic males (p trend=0.006) but not females (p trend=0.082). In addition, mortality remained twice as high in diabetic patients compared with nondiabetic ones (12.1 vs. 6.1%, p<0.001) and diabetes was identified as independent predictor of mortality (OR 1.23, p=0.022). Within the diabetic cohort, females had higher mortality than males (16.1 vs. 10.2%, p<0.001) and female gender independently predicted in-hospital mortality (OR 1.45, p=0.015). Adherence to EBT significantly improved over time in diabetic patients (p trend<0.001) but remained inferior - especially in women - to the one of nondiabetic individuals. CONCLUSIONS In-hospital mortality and morbidity of diabetic STEMI patients in Switzerland improved dramatically over time but, compared with nondiabetic counterparts, gaps in outcomes as well as EBT use persisted, especially in women.

Contamination of Alpine snow and ice at Colle Gnifetti, Swiss/Italian Alps, from nuclear weapons tests

Plutonium is present in the environment as a consequence of atmospheric nuclear tests, nuclear weapons production and industrial releases over the past 50 years. To study temporal trends, a high resolution Pu record was obtained by analyzing 52 discrete samples of an alpine firn/ice core from Colle Gnifetti (Monte Rosa, 4450 m a.s.l.), dating from 1945 to 1990. The 239Pu signal was recorded directly, without decontamination or preconcentration steps, using an Inductively Coupled Plasma - Sector Field Mass Spectrometer (ICP-SFMS) equipped with an high efficiency sample introduction system, thus requiring much less sample preparation than previously reported methods. The 239Pu profile reflects the three main periods of atmospheric nuclear weapons testing: the earliest peak lasted from 1954/55 to 1958 and was caused by the first testing period reaching a maximum in 1958. Despite a temporary halt of testing in 1959/60, the Pu concentration decreased only by half with respect to the 1958 peak due to long atmospheric residence times. In 1961/62 Pu concentrations rapidly increased reaching a maximum in 1963, which was about 40% more intense than the 1958 peak. After the signing of the "Limited Test Ban Treaty" between USA and USSR in 1964, Pu deposition decreased very sharply reaching a minimum in 1967. The third period (1967-1975) is characterized by irregular Pu concentrations with smaller peaks (about 20-30% of the 1964 peak) which might be related to the deposition of Saharan dust contaminated by the French nuclear tests of the 1960s. The data presented are in very good agreement with Pu profiles previously obtained from the Col du Dome ice core (by multi-collector ICP-MS) and Belukha ice core (by Accelerator Mass Spectrometry, AMS). Although a semi-quantitative method was employed here, the results are quantitatively comparable to previously published results.

Antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings 1996 to 2006: patient characteristics, treatment regimens and monitoring in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and Latin America

OBJECTIVES: To describe temporal trends in baseline clinical characteristics, initial treatment regimens and monitoring of patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. METHODS: We analysed data from 17 ART programmes in 12 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, South America and Asia. Patients aged 16 years or older with documented date of start of highly active ART (HAART) were included. Data were analysed by calculating medians, interquartile ranges (IQR) and percentages by regions and time periods. Not all centres provided data for 2006 and 2005 and 2006 were therefore combined. RESULTS: A total of 36,715 patients who started ART 1996-2006 were included in the analysis. Patient numbers increased substantially in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, and the number of initial regimens declined, to four and five, respectively, in 2005-2006. In South America 20 regimes were used in 2005-2006. A combination of 3TC/D4T/NVP was used for 56% of African patients and 42% of Asian patients; AZT/3TC/EFV was used in 33% of patients in South America. The median baseline CD4 count increased in recent years, to 122 cells/microl (IQR 53-194) in 2005-2006 in Africa, 134 cells/microl (IQR 72-191) in Asia, and 197 cells/microl (IQR 61-277) in South America, but 77%, 78% and 51%, respectively, started with <200 cells/microl in 2005-2006. In all regions baseline CD4 cell counts were higher in women than men: differences were 22cells/microl in Africa, 65 cells/microl in Asia and 10 cells/microl in South America. In 2005-2006 a viral load at 6 months was available in 21% of patients Africa, 8% of Asian patients and 73% of patients in South America. Corresponding figures for 6-month CD4 cell counts were 74%, 77% and 81%. CONCLUSIONS: The public health approach to providing ART proposed by the World Health Organization has been implemented in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Although CD4 cell counts at the start of ART have increased in recent years, most patients continue to start with counts well below the recommended threshold. Particular attention should be paid to more timely initiation of ART in HIV-infected men.

Regional variation in orthopedic surgery in Switzerland

The study systematically describes the frequency and geographic variability of major surgical interventions for musculoskeletal disorders in Switzerland. Age- and sex-standardized rates for joint replacements, arthroscopies, spine surgery and hip fracture repair were calculated for hospital service regions. Various statistical analyses were used to measure the extent of variation. The authors argue that the surgery of hip fractures can be used as index surgery in the context of analyzing variations in orthopedic surgery. Temporal trends imply that patient demand and supply factors related to clinical ambiguity and non-medical incentives of providers are far more important components leading to increased use than the sole effect of an aging population.

Organic vs. Conventional Grassland Management: Do N-15 and C-13 Isotopic Signatures of Hay and Soil Samples Differ?

Distinguishing organic and conventional products is a major issue of food security and authenticity. Previous studies successfully used stable isotopes to separate organic and conventional products, but up to now, this approach was not tested for organic grassland hay and soil. Moreover, isotopic abundances could be a powerful tool to elucidate differences in ecosystem functioning and driving mechanisms of element cycling in organic and conventional management systems. Here, we studied the delta N-15 and delta C-13 isotopic composition of soil and hay samples of 21 organic and 34 conventional grasslands in two German regions. We also used Delta delta N-15 (delta N-15 plant - delta N-15 soil) to characterize nitrogen dynamics. In order to detect temporal trends, isotopic abundances in organic grasslands were related to the time since certification. Furthermore, discriminant analysis was used to test whether the respective management type can be deduced from observed isotopic abundances. Isotopic analyses revealed no significant differences in delta C-13 in hay and delta C-13 in both soil and hay between management types, but showed that delta C-13 abundances were significantly lower in soil of organic compared to conventional grasslands. delta C-15 values implied that management types did not substantially differ in nitrogen cycling. Only delta C-13 in soil and hay showed significant negative relationships with the time since certification. Thus, our result suggest that organic grasslands suffered less from drought stress compared to conventional grasslands most likely due to a benefit of higher plant species richness, as previously shown by manipulative biodiversity experiments. Finally, it was possible to correctly classify about two third of the samples according to their management using isotopic abundances in soil and hay. However, as more than half of the organic samples were incorrectly classified, we infer that more research is needed to improve this approach before it can be efficiently used in practice.

Change in suicide rates in Switzerland before and after firearm restriction resulting from the 2003 “Army XXI” reform

Objective: Firearms are the most common method of suicide among young men in Switzerland. From March 2003 through February 2004, the number of Swiss soldiers was halved as a result of an army reform (Army XXI), leading to a decrease in the availability of guns nationwide. The authors investigated the patterns of the overall suicide rate and the firearm suicide rate before and after the reform. Method: Using a naturalistic study design, the authors compared suicide rates before (1995–2003) and after the intervention (2004–2008) in the affected population (men ages 18–43) and in two comparison groups (women ages 18–44 and men ages 44–53). Data were received from the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. Interrupted time series analysis was used to control for preexisting temporal trends. Alternative methods (Poisson regression, autocorrelation analysis, and surrogate data tests) were used to check validity. Results: The authors found a reduction in both the overall suicide rate and the firearm suicide rate after the Army XXI reform. No significant increases were found for other suicide methods overall. An increase in railway suicides was observed. It was estimated that 22% of the reduction in firearm suicides was substituted by other suicide methods. The attenuation of the suicide rate was not compensated for during the follow-up years. Neither of the comparison groups showed statistically significant changes in firearm suicide rate and overall suicide rate. Conclusions: The restriction of firearm availability in Switzerland resulting from the Army XXI reform was followed by an enduring decrease in the general suicide rate.

Using Informatics and the Electronic Medical Record to Describe Antimicrobial Use in the Clinical Management of Diarrhea Cases at 12 Companion Animal Practices

Antimicrobial drugs may be used to treat diarrheal illness in companion animals. It is important to monitor antimicrobial use to better understand trends and patterns in antimicrobial resistance. There is no monitoring of antimicrobial use in companion animals in Canada. To explore how the use of electronic medical records could contribute to the ongoing, systematic collection of antimicrobial use data in companion animals, anonymized electronic medical records were extracted from 12 participating companion animal practices and warehoused at the University of Calgary. We used the pre-diagnostic, clinical features of diarrhea as the case definition in this study. Using text-mining technologies, cases of diarrhea were described by each of the following variables: diagnostic laboratory tests performed, the etiological diagnosis and antimicrobial therapies. The ability of the text miner to accurately describe the cases for each of the variables was evaluated. It could not reliably classify cases in terms of diagnostic tests or etiological diagnosis; a manual review of a random sample of 500 diarrhea cases determined that 88/500 (17.6%) of the target cases underwent diagnostic testing of which 36/88 (40.9%) had an etiological diagnosis. Text mining, compared to a human reviewer, could accurately identify cases that had been treated with antimicrobials with high sensitivity (92%, 95% confidence interval, 88.1%-95.4%) and specificity (85%, 95% confidence interval, 80.2%-89.1%). Overall, 7400/15,928 (46.5%) of pets presenting with diarrhea were treated with antimicrobials. Some temporal trends and patterns of the antimicrobial use are described. The results from this study suggest that informatics and the electronic medical records could be useful for monitoring trends in antimicrobial use.

Retention in care during the first 3 years of antiretroviral therapy for women in Malawi's option B+ programme: an observational cohort study

Background Studies of Malawi's option B+ programme for HIV-positive pregnant and breastfeeding women have reported high loss to follow-up during pregnancy and at the start of antiretroviral therapy (ART), but few data exist about retention during breastfeeding and after weaning. We examined loss to follow-up and retention in care in patients in the option B+ programme during their first 3 years on ART. Methods We analysed two data sources: aggregated facility-level data about patients in option B+ who started ART between Oct 1, 2011, and June 30, 2012, at 546 health facilities; and patient-level data from 20 large facilities with electronic medical record system for HIV-positive women who started ART between Sept 1, 2011, and Dec 31, 2013, under option B+ or because they had WHO clinical stages 3 or 4 disease or had CD4 counts of less than 350 cells per μL. We used facility-level data to calculate representative estimates of retention and loss to follow-up. We used patient-level data to study temporal trends in retention, timing of loss to follow-up, and predictors of no follow-up and loss to follow-up. We defined patients who were more than 60 days late for their first follow-up visit as having no follow-up and patients who were more than 60 days late for a subsequent visit as being lost to follow-up. We calculated proportions and cumulative probabilities of patients who had died, stopped ART, had no follow-up, were lost to follow-up, or were retained alive on ART for 36 months. We calculated odds ratios and hazard ratios to examine predictors of no follow-up and loss to follow-up. Findings Analysis of facility-level data about patients in option B+ who had not transferred to a different facility showed retention in care to be 76·8% (20 475 of 26 658 patients) after 12 months, 70·8% (18 306 of 25 849 patients) after 24 months, and 69·7% (17 787 of 25 535 patients) after 36 months. Patient-level data included 29 145 patients. 14 630 (50·2%) began treatment under option B+. Patients in option B+ had a higher risk of having no follow-up and, for the first 2 years of ART, higher risk of loss to follow-up than did patients who started ART because they had CD4 counts less than 350 cells per μL or WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 disease. Risk of loss to follow-up during the third year was low and similar for patients retained for 2 years. Retention rates did not change as the option B+ programme matured. Interpretation Our data suggest that pregnant and breastfeeding women who start ART immediately after they are diagnosed with HIV can be retained on ART through the option B+ programme, even after many have stopped breastfeeding. Interventions might be needed to improve retention in the first year on ART in option B+. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Partnerships for Enhanced Engagement in Research Health, and National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Coxiella burnetii Infections in Small Ruminants and Humans in Switzerland

The recent Q fever epidemic in the Netherlands raised concerns about the potential risk of outbreaks in other European countries. In Switzerland, the prevalence of Q fever in animals and humans has not been studied in recent years. In this study, we describe the current situation with respect to Coxiella (C.) burnetii infections in small ruminants and humans in Switzerland, as a basis for future epidemiological investigations and public health risk assessments. Specific objectives of this cross-sectional study were to (i) estimate the seroprevalence of C. burnetii in sheep and goats, (ii) quantify the amount of bacteria shed during abortion and (iii) analyse temporal trends in human C. burnetii infections. The seroprevalence of C. burnetii in small ruminants was determined by commercial ELISA from a representative sample of 100 sheep flocks and 72 goat herds. Herd-level seroprevalence was 5.0% (95% CI: 1.6-11.3) for sheep and 11.1% (95% CI: 4.9-20.7) for goats. Animal-level seroprevalence was 1.8% (95% CI: 0.8-3.4) for sheep and 3.4% (95% CI: 1.7-6) for goats. The quantification of C. burnetii in 97 ovine and caprine abortion samples by real-time PCR indicated shedding of >10(4) bacteria/g in 13.4% of all samples tested. To our knowledge, this is the first study reporting C. burnetii quantities in a large number of small ruminant abortion samples. Annual human Q fever serology data were provided by five major Swiss laboratories. Overall, seroprevalence in humans ranged between 1.7% and 3.5% from 2007 to 2011, and no temporal trends were observed. Interestingly, the two laboratories with significantly higher seroprevalences are located in the regions with the largest goat populations as well as, for one laboratory, with the highest livestock density in Switzerland. However, a direct link between animal and human infection data could not be established in this study.