Tropopause level Rossby wave breaking in the Northern Hemisphere: a feature-based validation of the ECHAM5-HAM climate model

Breaking synoptic-scale Rossby waves (RWB) at the tropopause level are central to the daily weather evolution in the extratropics and the subtropics. RWB leads to pronounced meridional transport of heat, moisture, momentum, and chemical constituents. RWB events are manifest as elongated and narrow structures in the tropopause-level potential vorticity (PV) field. A feature-based validation approach is used to assess the representation of Northern Hemisphere RWB in present-day climate simulations carried out with the ECHAM5-HAM climate model at three different resolutions (T42L19, T63L31, and T106L31) against the ERA-40 reanalysis data set. An objective identification algorithm extracts RWB events from the isentropic PV field and allows quantifying the frequency of occurrence of RWB. The biases in the frequency of RWB are then compared to biases in the time mean tropopause-level jet wind speeds. The ECHAM5-HAM model captures the location of the RWB frequency maxima in the Northern Hemisphere at all three resolutions. However, at coarse resolution (T42L19) the overall frequency of RWB, i.e. the frequency averaged over all seasons and the entire hemisphere, is underestimated by 28%.The higher-resolution simulations capture the overall frequency of RWB much better, with a minor difference between T63L31 and T106L31 (frequency errors of −3.5 and 6%, respectively). The number of large-size RWB events is significantly underestimated by the T42L19 experiment and well represented in the T106L31 simulation. On the local scale, however, significant differences to ERA-40 are found in the higher-resolution simulations. These differences are regionally confined and vary with the season. The most striking difference between T106L31 and ERA-40 is that ECHAM5-HAM overestimates the frequency of RWB in the subtropical Atlantic in all seasons except for spring. This bias maximum is accompanied by an equatorward extension of the subtropical westerlies.

Cold surge episodes over southeastern Brazil - a potential vorticity perspective

Most intense cold surges and associated frost events in southern and southeastern Brazil are characterized by a large amplitude trough over South America extending toward tropical latitudes and a ridge to the west of it over the Pacific Ocean. In this study, potential vorticity (PV) streamers serve to examine the flow condition leading to cold surges. Case studies suggest that several PV anomalies are related to cold surge episodes: (1) the potential vorticity unit (2-PVU) isoline upstream of South America becomes progressively more distorted prior and during the cold surge episode, indicating a flow situation which is conducive for Rossby wave breaking and hence a flow which strongly deviates from zonality; (2) the initial stage of a cold surge episode is characterized by a northward bulging of high-PV air to the east of the Andes, resulting in a PV streamer whose northern end reaches Uruguay and southeastern Brazil; the strong PV gradient on its western flank constitutes a flow configuration that induces and maintains the transport of sub-Antarctic air toward the subtropics; (3) a distinct negative PV anomaly, a blocking, originates over the eastern South Pacific, upstream of the South America sector. A composite analysis of 27 cold surges is performed for stratospheric PV streamer frequency on several isentropic surfaces. It reveals that equatorward wave breaking over South America and the western South Atlantic represents an important potential component of the dynamics of intense cold surges. The indications are most pronounced around the isentropic levels of 320 K and immediately before the day with largest temperature drops over subtropical Brazil.

A 20-day period standing oscillation in the northern winter stratosphere

Observations of the ozone profile by a ground-based microwave radiometer in Switzerland indicate a dominant 20-day oscillation in stratospheric ozone, possibly related to oscillations of the polar vortex edge during winter. For further understanding of the nature of the 20-day oscillation, the ozone data set of ERA Interim meteorological reanalysis is analyzed at the latitude belt of 47.5° N and in the time from 1979 to 2010. Spectral analysis of ozone time series at 7 hPa indicates that the 20-day oscillation is maximal at two locations: 7.5° E, 47.5° N and 60° E, 47.5° N. Composites of the stream function are derived for different phases of the 20-day oscillation of stratospheric ozone at 7 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere. The streamline at Ψ = −2 × 107 m2 s−1 is in the vicinity of the polar vortex edge. The other streamline at Ψ = 4 × 107 m2 s1 surrounds the Aleutian anticyclone and goes to the subtropics. The composites show 20-day period standing oscillations at the polar vortex edge and in the subtropics above Northern Africa, India, and China. The 20-day period standing oscillation above Aral Sea and India is correlated to the strength of the Aleutian anticyclone.

Declining pine growth in Central Spain coincides with increasing diurnal temperature range since the 1970s

Growing evidence suggests environmental change to be most severe across the semi-arid subtropics, with past, present and projected drying of the Mediterranean Basin posing a key multidisciplinary challenge. Consideration of a single climatic factor, however, often fails to explain spatiotemporal growth dynamics of drought-prone ecosystems. Here, we present annually resolved and absolutely dated ring width measurements of 871 Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris) from 18 individual plot sites in the Central Spanish Pinar Grande forest reserve. Although comprising tree ages from 6 to 175 years, this network correlates surprisingly well with the inverse May–July diurnal temperature range (r = 0.84; p < 0.00011956–2011). Ring width extremes were triggered by pressure anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the long-term growth decline coincided with Iberian-wide drying since the mid-1970s. Climate model simulations not only confirm this negative trend over the last decades but also project drought to continuously increase over the 21st century. Associated ecological effects and socio-economic consequences should be considered to improve adaptation strategies of agricultural and forest management, as well as biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service.

Warm Conveyor Belts in the ERA-Interim Dataset (1979–2010): Part I: Climatology and Potential Vorticity Evolution

A global climatology of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) is presented for the years 1979–2010, based on trajectories calculated with Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data. WCB trajectories are identified as strongly ascending air parcels (600 hPa in 2 days) near extratropical cyclones. Corroborating earlier studies, WCBs are more frequent during winter than summer and they ascend preferentially in the western ocean basins between 25° and 50° latitude. Before ascending, WCB trajectories typically approach from the subtropics in summer and from more midlatitude regions in winter. Considering humidity, cloud water, and potential temperature along WCBs confirms that they experience strong condensation and integrated latent heating during the ascent (typically >20 K). Liquid and ice water contents along WCBs peak at about 700 and 550 hPa, respectively. The mean potential vorticity (PV) evolution shows typical tropospheric values near 900 hPa, followed by an increase to almost 1 potential vorticity unit (PVU) at 700 hPa, and a decrease to less than 0.5 PVU at 300 hPa. These low PV values in the upper troposphere constitute significant negative anomalies with amplitudes of 1–3 PVU, which can strongly influence the downstream flow. Considering the low-level diabatic PV production, (i) WCBs starting at low latitudes (<40°) are unlikely to attain high PV (due to weak planetary vorticity) although they exhibit the strongest latent heating, and (ii) for those ascending at higher latitudes, a strong vertical heating gradient and high absolute vorticity are both important. This study therefore provides climatological insight into the cloud diabatic formation of significant positive and negative PV anomalies in the extratropical lower and upper troposphere, respectively.

Effect of surface restoring on subsurface variability in a climate model during 1949–2005

Initializing the ocean for decadal predictability studies is a challenge, as it requires reconstructing the little observed subsurface trajectory of ocean variability. In this study we explore to what extent surface nudging using well-observed sea surface temperature (SST) can reconstruct the deeper ocean variations for the 1949–2005 period. An ensemble made with a nudged version of the IPSLCM5A model and compared to ocean reanalyses and reconstructed datasets. The SST is restored to observations using a physically-based relaxation coefficient, in contrast to earlier studies, which use a much larger value. The assessment is restricted to the regions where the ocean reanalyses agree, i.e. in the upper 500 m of the ocean, although this can be latitude and basin dependent. Significant reconstruction of the subsurface is achieved in specific regions, namely region of subduction in the subtropical Atlantic, below the thermocline in the equatorial Pacific and, in some cases, in the North Atlantic deep convection regions. Beyond the mean correlations, ocean integrals are used to explore the time evolution of the correlation over 20-year windows. Classical fixed depth heat content diagnostics do not exhibit any significant reconstruction between the different existing bservation-based references and can therefore not be used to assess global average time-varying correlations in the nudged simulations. Using the physically based average temperature above an isotherm (14°C) alleviates this issue in the tropics and subtropics and shows significant reconstruction of these quantities in the nudged simulations for several decades. This skill is attributed to the wind stress reconstruction in the tropics, as already demonstrated in a perfect model study using the same model. Thus, we also show here the robustness of this result in an historical and observational context.