Comparison of climate field reconstruction techniques: Application to Europe

This paper presents a comparison of principal component (PC) regression and regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) to reconstruct European summer and winter surface air temperature over the past millennium. Reconstruction is performed within a surrogate climate using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate System Model (CSM) 1.4 and the climate model ECHO-G 4, assuming different white and red noise scenarios to define the distortion of pseudoproxy series. We show how sensitivity tests lead to valuable “a priori” information that provides a basis for improving real world proxy reconstructions. Our results emphasize the need to carefully test and evaluate reconstruction techniques with respect to the temporal resolution and the spatial scale they are applied to. Furthermore, we demonstrate that uncertainties inherent to the predictand and predictor data have to be more rigorously taken into account. The comparison of the two statistical techniques, in the specific experimental setting presented here, indicates that more skilful results are achieved with RegEM as low frequency variability is better preserved. We further detect seasonal differences in reconstruction skill for the continental scale, as e.g. the target temperature average is more adequately reconstructed for summer than for winter. For the specific predictor network given in this paper, both techniques underestimate the target temperature variations to an increasing extent as more noise is added to the signal, albeit RegEM less than with PC regression. We conclude that climate field reconstruction techniques can be improved and need to be further optimized in future applications.

Are clustering effects accounted for in statistical analysis in leading dental specialty journals?

OBJECTIVES In dental research multiple site observations within patients or taken at various time intervals are commonplace. These clustered observations are not independent; statistical analysis should be amended accordingly. This study aimed to assess whether adjustment for clustering effects during statistical analysis was undertaken in five specialty dental journals. METHODS Thirty recent consecutive issues of Orthodontics (OJ), Periodontology (PJ), Endodontology (EJ), Maxillofacial (MJ) and Paediatric Dentristry (PDJ) journals were hand searched. Articles requiring adjustment accounting for clustering effects were identified and statistical techniques used were scrutinized. RESULTS Of 559 studies considered to have inherent clustering effects, adjustment for this was made in the statistical analysis in 223 (39.1%). Studies published in the Periodontology specialty accounted for clustering effects in the statistical analysis more often than articles published in other journals (OJ vs. PJ: OR=0.21, 95% CI: 0.12, 0.37, p<0.001; MJ vs. PJ: OR=0.02, 95% CI: 0.00, 0.07, p<0.001; PDJ vs. PJ: OR=0.14, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.28, p<0.001; EJ vs. PJ: OR=0.11, 95% CI: 0.06, 0.22, p<0.001). A positive correlation was found between increasing prevalence of clustering effects in individual specialty journals and correct statistical handling of clustering (r=0.89). CONCLUSIONS The majority of studies in 5 dental specialty journals (60.9%) examined failed to account for clustering effects in statistical analysis where indicated, raising the possibility of inappropriate decreases in p-values and the risk of inappropriate inferences.

An automated method for mapping physical soil and water conservation structures on cultivated land using GIS and remote sensing techniques

An efficient and reliable automated model that can map physical Soil and Water Conservation (SWC) structures on cultivated land was developed using very high spatial resolution imagery obtained from Google Earth and ArcGIS, ERDAS IMAGINE, and SDC Morphology Toolbox for MATLAB and statistical techniques. The model was developed using the following procedures: (1) a high-pass spatial filter algorithm was applied to detect linear features, (2) morphological processing was used to remove unwanted linear features, (3) the raster format was vectorized, (4) the vectorized linear features were split per hectare (ha) and each line was then classified according to its compass direction, and (5) the sum of all vector lengths per class of direction per ha was calculated. Finally, the direction class with the greatest length was selected from each ha to predict the physical SWC structures. The model was calibrated and validated on the Ethiopian Highlands. The model correctly mapped 80% of the existing structures. The developed model was then tested at different sites with different topography. The results show that the developed model is feasible for automated mapping of physical SWC structures. Therefore, the model is useful for predicting and mapping physical SWC structures areas across diverse areas.

Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography

Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial–interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia – fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys – in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.

High secondary aerosol contribution to particulate pollution during haze events in China

Rapid industrialization and urbanization in developing countries has led to an increase in air pollution, along a similar trajectory to that previously experienced by the developed nations. In China, particulate pollution is a serious environmental problem that is influencing air quality, regional and global climates, and human health. In response to the extremely severe and persistent haze pollution experienced by about 800 million people during the first quarter of 2013 (refs 4, 5), the Chinese State Council announced its aim to reduce concentrations of PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5micrometres) by up to 25 per cent relative to 2012 levels by 2017 (ref. 6). Such efforts however require elucidation of the factors governing the abundance and composition of PM2.5, which remain poorly constrained in China. Here we combine a comprehensive set of novel and state-of-the-art offline analytical approaches and statistical techniques to investigate the chemical nature and sources of particulate matter at urban locations in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Xi'an during January 2013. We find that the severe haze pollution event was driven to a large extent by secondary aerosol formation, which contributed 30-77 per cent and 44-71 per cent (average for all four cities) of PM2.5 and of organic aerosol, respectively. On average, the contribution of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA) are found to be of similar importance (SOA/SIA ratios range from 0.6 to 1.4). Our results suggest that, in addition to mitigating primary particulate emissions, reducing the emissions of secondary aerosol precursors from, for example, fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning is likely to be important for controlling China's PM2.5 levels and for reducing the environmental, economic and health impacts resulting from particulate pollution.

Do Increasing Rates of Loss to Follow-up in Antiretroviral Treatment Programs Imply Deteriorating Patient Retention?

In several studies of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for persons with human immunodeficiency virus infection, investigators have reported that there has been a higher rate of loss to follow-up (LTFU) among patients initiating ART in recent years than among patients who initiated ART during earlier time periods. This finding is frequently interpreted as reflecting deterioration of patient retention in the face of increasing patient loads. However, in this paper we demonstrate by simulation that transient gaps in follow-up could lead to bias when standard survival analysis techniques are applied. We created a simulated cohort of patients with different dates of ART initiation. Rates of ART interruption, ART resumption, and mortality were assumed to remain constant over time, but when we applied a standard definition of LTFU, the simulated probability of being classified LTFU at a particular ART duration was substantially higher in recently enrolled cohorts. This suggests that much of the apparent trend towards increased LTFU may be attributed to bias caused by transient interruptions in care. Alternative statistical techniques need to be used when analyzing predictors of LTFU-for example, using "prospective" definitions of LTFU in place of "retrospective" definitions. Similar considerations may apply when analyzing predictors of LTFU from treatment programs for other chronic diseases.

A regional climate palaeosimulation for Europe in the period 1500–1990 – Part 2: Shortcomings and strengths of models and reconstructions

This study compares gridded European seasonal series of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation (PRE) reconstructions with a regional climate simulation over the period 1500–1990. The area is analysed separately for nine subareas that represent the majority of the climate diversity in the European sector. In their spatial structure, an overall good agreement is found between the reconstructed and simulated climate features across Europe, supporting consistency in both products. Systematic biases between both data sets can be explained by a priori known deficiencies in the simulation. Simulations and reconstructions, however, largely differ in the temporal evolution of past climate for European subregions. In particular, the simulated anomalies during the Maunder and Dalton minima show stronger response to changes in the external forcings than recorded in the reconstructions. Although this disagreement is to some extent expected given the prominent role of internal variability in the evolution of regional temperature and precipitation, a certain degree of agreement is a priori expected in variables directly affected by external forcings. In this sense, the inability of the model to reproduce a warm period similar to that recorded for the winters during the first decades of the 18th century in the reconstructions is indicative of fundamental limitations in the simulation that preclude reproducing exceptionally anomalous conditions. Despite these limitations, the simulated climate is a physically consistent data set, which can be used as a benchmark to analyse the consistency and limitations of gridded reconstructions of different variables. A comparison of the leading modes of SAT and PRE variability indicates that reconstructions are too simplistic, especially for precipitation, which is associated with the linear statistical techniques used to generate the reconstructions. The analysis of the co-variability between sea level pressure (SLP) and SAT and PRE in the simulation yields a result which resembles the canonical co-variability recorded in the observations for the 20th century. However, the same analysis for reconstructions exhibits anomalously low correlations, which points towards a lack of dynamical consistency between independent reconstructions.

Recent Advances in Adaptive Sampling and Reconstruction for Monte Carlo Rendering

Monte Carlo integration is firmly established as the basis for most practical realistic image synthesis algorithms because of its flexibility and generality. However, the visual quality of rendered images often suffers from estimator variance, which appears as visually distracting noise. Adaptive sampling and reconstruction algorithms reduce variance by controlling the sampling density and aggregating samples in a reconstruction step, possibly over large image regions. In this paper we survey recent advances in this area. We distinguish between “a priori” methods that analyze the light transport equations and derive sampling rates and reconstruction filters from this analysis, and “a posteriori” methods that apply statistical techniques to sets of samples to drive the adaptive sampling and reconstruction process. They typically estimate the errors of several reconstruction filters, and select the best filter locally to minimize error. We discuss advantages and disadvantages of recent state-of-the-art techniques, and provide visual and quantitative comparisons. Some of these techniques are proving useful in real-world applications, and we aim to provide an overview for practitioners and researchers to assess these approaches. In addition, we discuss directions for potential further improvements.

On the accuracy of Software-based Energy Estimation Techniques

This paper examines the accuracy of software-based on-line energy estimation techniques. It evaluates today’s most widespread energy estimation model in order to investigate whether the current methodology of pure software-based energy estimation running on a sensor node itself can indeed reliably and accurately determine its energy consumption - independent of the particular node instance, the traffic load the node is exposed to, or the MAC protocol the node is running. The paper enhances today’s widely used energy estimation model by integrating radio transceiver switches into the model, and proposes a methodology to find the optimal estimation model parameters. It proves by statistical validation with experimental data that the proposed model enhancement and parameter calibration methodology significantly increases the estimation accuracy.

Comparison among gold standard techniques used for the validation of methods for occlusal caries detection

The aim of this in vitro study was to assess the agreement among four techniques used as gold standard for the validation of methods for occlusal caries detection. Sixty-five human permanent molars were selected and one site in each occlusal surface was chosen as the test site. The teeth were cut and prepared according to each technique: stereomicroscopy without coloring (1), dye enhancement with rhodamine B (2) and fuchsine/acetic light green (3), and semi-quantitative microradiography (4). Digital photographs from each prepared tooth were assessed by three examiners for caries extension. Weighted kappa, as well as Friedman's test with multiple comparisons, was performed to compare all techniques and verify statistical significant differences. Results: kappa values varied from 0.62 to 0.78, the latter being found by both dye enhancement methods. Friedman's test showed statistical significant difference (P < 0.001) and multiple comparison identified these differences among all techniques, except between both dye enhancement methods (rhodamine B and fuchsine/acetic light green). Cross-tabulation showed that the stereomicroscopy overscored the lesions. Both dye enhancement methods showed a good agreement, while stereomicroscopy overscored the lesions. Furthermore, the outcome of caries diagnostic tests may be influenced by the validation method applied. Dye enhancement methods seem to be reliable as gold standard methods.

Statistical shape analysis via principal factor analysis

Statistical shape analysis techniques commonly employed in the medical imaging community, such as active shape models or active appearance models, rely on principal component analysis (PCA) to decompose shape variability into a reduced set of interpretable components. In this paper we propose principal factor analysis (PFA) as an alternative and complementary tool to PCA providing a decomposition into modes of variation that can be more easily interpretable, while still being a linear efficient technique that performs dimensionality reduction (as opposed to independent component analysis, ICA). The key difference between PFA and PCA is that PFA models covariance between variables, rather than the total variance in the data. The added value of PFA is illustrated on 2D landmark data of corpora callosa outlines. Then, a study of the 3D shape variability of the human left femur is performed. Finally, we report results on vector-valued 3D deformation fields resulting from non-rigid registration of ventricles in MRI of the brain.

From Statistical Data to Spatial Knowledge - informing decision making in Vietnam

Vietnam has developed rapidly over the past 15 years. However, progress was not uniformly distributed across the country. Availability, adequate visualization and analysis of spatially explicit data on socio-economic and environmental aspects can support both research and policy towards sustainable development. Applying appropriate mapping techniques allows gleaning important information from tabular socio-economic data. Spatial analysis of socio-economic phenomena can yield insights into locally-specifi c patterns and processes that cannot be generated by non-spatial applications. This paper presents techniques and applications that develop and analyze spatially highly disaggregated socioeconomic datasets. A number of examples show how such information can support informed decisionmaking and research in Vietnam.