Relationship between the logistic EuroSCORE and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score in patients implanted with the CoreValve ReValving system--a Bern-Rotterdam Study

Background Surgical risk scores, such as the logistic EuroSCORE (LES) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality (STS) score, are commonly used to identify high-risk or “inoperable” patients for transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). In Europe, the LES plays an important role in selecting patients for implantation with the Medtronic CoreValve System. What is less clear, however, is the role of the STS score of these patients and the relationship between the LES and STS. Objective The purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between LES and STS scores and their performance characteristics in high-risk surgical patients implanted with the Medtronic CoreValve System. Methods All consecutive patients (n = 168) in whom a CoreValve bioprosthesis was implanted between November 2005 and June 2009 at 2 centers (Bern University Hospital, Bern, Switzerland, and Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands) were included for analysis. Patient demographics were recorded in a prospective database. Logistic EuroSCORE and STS scores were calculated on a prospective and retrospective basis, respectively. Results Observed mortality was 11.1%. The mean LES was 3 times higher than the mean STS score (LES 20.2% ± 13.9% vs STS 6.7% ± 5.8%). Based on the various LES and STS cutoff values used in previous and ongoing TAVI trials, 53% of patients had an LES ≥15%, 16% had an STS ≥10%, and 40% had an LES ≥20% or STS ≥10%. Pearson correlation coefficient revealed a reasonable (moderate) linear relationship between the LES and STS scores, r = 0.58, P < .001. Although the STS score outperformed the LES, both models had suboptimal discriminatory power (c-statistic, 0.49 for LES and 0.69 for STS) and calibration. Conclusions Clinical judgment and the Heart Team concept should play a key role in selecting patients for TAVI, whereas currently available surgical risk score algorithms should be used to guide clinical decision making.

Predicting the pathogen of diabetic toe osteomyelitis by two consecutive ulcer cultures with bone contact

In this study, we investigate the accuracy of two consecutive ulcer cultures with bone contact compared to bone biopsy for the diagnosis of diabetic toe osteomyelitis. The same nurse and orthopaedic surgeon obtained all samples: sample A-1: bone contact swabbing through the ulcer; sample A-2: a second culture swabbing from the bone surface within 24 h; sample B: surgical bone biopsy in the operating theatre. The kappa statistic measure between samples A-1 and A-2 (bone contact swabs) indicated 82.35% agreement. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of the two samples A compared to B were 96%, 79%, 92% and 88%, respectively, for the causative pathogen. These results were similar with prior antibiotic treatment, discordant bone surface swabs or with monomicrobial infections. As a conclusion, two consecutive diabetic toe cultures with bone contact accurately predict the pathogen of diabetic toe osteomyelitis in 90% of cases.

Validation of the Asthma Predictive Index and comparison with simpler clinical prediction rules

Background The loose and stringent Asthma Predictive Indices (API), developed in Tucson, are popular rules to predict asthma in preschool children. To be clinically useful, they require validation in different settings. Objective To assess the predictive performance of the API in an independent population and compare it with simpler rules based only on preschool wheeze. Methods We studied 1954 children of the population-based Leicester Respiratory Cohort, followed up from age 1 to 10 years. The API and frequency of wheeze were assessed at age 3 years, and we determined their association with asthma at ages 7 and 10 years by using logistic regression. We computed test characteristics and measures of predictive performance to validate the API and compare it with simpler rules. Results The ability of the API to predict asthma in Leicester was comparable to Tucson: for the loose API, odds ratios for asthma at age 7 years were 5.2 in Leicester (5.5 in Tucson), and positive predictive values were 26% (26%). For the stringent API, these values were 8.2 (9.8) and 40% (48%). For the simpler rule early wheeze, corresponding values were 5.4 and 21%; for early frequent wheeze, 6.7 and 36%. The discriminative ability of all prediction rules was moderate (c statistic ≤ 0.7) and overall predictive performance low (scaled Brier score < 20%). Conclusion Predictive performance of the API in Leicester, although comparable to the original study, was modest and similar to prediction based only on preschool wheeze. This highlights the need for better prediction rules.

A prediction model for assessing residential radon concentration in Switzerland

Indoor radon is regularly measured in Switzerland. However, a nationwide model to predict residential radon levels has not been developed. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to assess indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland. The model was based on 44,631 measurements from the nationwide Swiss radon database collected between 1994 and 2004. Of these, 80% randomly selected measurements were used for model development and the remaining 20% for an independent model validation. A multivariable log-linear regression model was fitted and relevant predictors selected according to evidence from the literature, the adjusted R², the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The prediction model was evaluated by calculating Spearman rank correlation between measured and predicted values. Additionally, the predicted values were categorised into three categories (50th, 50th-90th and 90th percentile) and compared with measured categories using a weighted Kappa statistic. The most relevant predictors for indoor radon levels were tectonic units and year of construction of the building, followed by soil texture, degree of urbanisation, floor of the building where the measurement was taken and housing type (P-values <0.001 for all). Mean predicted radon values (geometric mean) were 66 Bq/m³ (interquartile range 40-111 Bq/m³) in the lowest exposure category, 126 Bq/m³ (69-215 Bq/m³) in the medium category, and 219 Bq/m³ (108-427 Bq/m³) in the highest category. Spearman correlation between predictions and measurements was 0.45 (95%-CI: 0.44; 0.46) for the development dataset and 0.44 (95%-CI: 0.42; 0.46) for the validation dataset. Kappa coefficients were 0.31 for the development and 0.30 for the validation dataset, respectively. The model explained 20% overall variability (adjusted R²). In conclusion, this residential radon prediction model, based on a large number of measurements, was demonstrated to be robust through validation with an independent dataset. The model is appropriate for predicting radon level exposure of the Swiss population in epidemiological research. Nevertheless, some exposure misclassification and regression to the mean is unavoidable and should be taken into account in future applications of the model.

Does delaying the first mowing date benefit biodiversity in meadowland?

Background Meadows are regularly mown in order to provide fodder or litter for livestock and to prevent vegetation succession. However, the time of year at which meadows should be first mown in order to maximize biological diversity remains controversial and may vary with respect to context and focal taxa. We carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis on the effects of delaying the first mowing date upon plants and invertebrates in European meadowlands. Methods Following a CEE protocol, ISI Web of Science, Science Direct, JSTOR, Google and Google Scholar were searched. We recorded all studies that compared the species richness of plants, or the species richness or abundance of invertebrates, between grassland plots mown at a postponed date (treatment) vs plots mown earlier (control). In order to be included in the meta-analysis, compared plots had to be similar in all management respects, except the date of the first cut that was (mostly experimentally) manipulated. They were also to be located in the same meadow type. Meta-analyses applying Hedges’d statistic were performed. Results Plant species richness responded differently to the date to which mowing was postponed. Delaying mowing from spring to summer had a positive effect, while delaying either from spring to fall, or from early summer to later in the season had a negative effect. Invertebrates were expected to show a strong response to delayed mowing due to their dependence on sward structure, but only species richness showed a clearly significant positive response. Invertebrate abundance was positively influenced in only a few studies. Conclusions The present meta-analysis shows that in general delaying the first mowing date in European meadowlands has either positive or neutral effects on plant and invertebrate biodiversity (except for plant species richness when delaying from spring to fall or from early summer to later). Overall, there was also strong between-study heterogeneity, pointing to other major confounding factors, the elucidation of which requires further field experiments with both larger sample sizes and a distinction between taxon-specific and meadow-type-specific responses.

Content comparison of health status measures for obesity based on the international classification of functioning, disability and health

OBJECTIVE: To compare the content covered by twelve obesity-specific health status measures using the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF). DESIGN: Obesity-specific health status measures were identified and then linked to the ICF separately by two trained health professionals according to standardized guidelines. The degree of agreement between health professionals was calculated by means of the kappa (kappa) statistic. Bootstrapped confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. The obesity-specific health-status measures were compared on the component and category level of the ICF. MEASUREMENTS: welve condition-specific health-status measures were identified and included in this study, namely the obesity-related problem scale, the obesity eating problems scale, the obesity-related coping and obesity-related distress questionnaire, the impact of weight on quality of life questionnaire (short version), the health-related quality of life questionnaire, the obesity adjustment survey (short form), the short specific quality of life scale, the obesity-related well-being questionnaire, the bariatric analysis and reporting outcome system, the bariatric quality of life index, the obesity and weight loss quality of life questionnaire and the weight-related symptom measure. RESULTS: In the 280 items of the eight measures, a total of 413 concepts were identified and linked to the 87 different ICF categories. The measures varied strongly in the number of concepts contained and the number of ICF categories used to map these concepts. Items on body functions varied form 12% in the obesity-related problem scale to 95% in the weight-related symptom measure. The estimated kappa coefficients ranged between 0.79 (CI: 0.72, 0.86) at the component ICFs level and 0.97 (CI: 0.93, 1.0) at the third ICF's level. CONCLUSION: The ICF proved highly useful for the content comparison of obesity-specific health-status measures. The results may provide clinicians and researchers with new insights when selecting health-status measures for clinical studies in obesity.

Content comparison of health-related quality of life instruments for COPD

BACKGROUND: Due to the increasing importance of quality of life assessments in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients, and the increased use of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) for comparative purposes it is essential to understand the relationship between health-related quality of life (HRQL) instruments and the ICF. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to compare the content of recommended COPD-specific HRQL instruments using the ICF as reference. COPD-specific instruments mentioned in widely accepted guidelines were linked to the ICF using standardized linking rules. The degree of agreement between various health professionals was assessed by calculating the kappa statistic. RESULTS: Eleven instruments were included. They varied strongly in the number of concepts contained and the number of ICF categories used to map these concepts. A total of 548 concepts were identified and linked to 60 different ICF categories. Only the single category 'dyspnea' was covered by all instruments, whilst 21 categories were unique to specific instruments. The relationships of the measures with the ICF were identified. CONCLUSIONS: This study may aid researchers and clinicians to choose the most appropriate instrument for a specific purpose as well as help compare studies that have used different instruments for HRQL assessment.

Effect of therapeutic exercise for hip osteoarthritis pain: results of a meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE: Recommendations for lower extremity osteoarthritis (OA) and exercise have been primarily based on knee studies. To provide more targeted recommendations for the hip, we gathered evidence for the efficacy of exercise for hip OA from randomized controlled trials. METHODS: A bibliographic search identified trials that were randomized, controlled, completed by >or=60% of subjects, and involved an exercise group (strengthening and/or aerobic) versus a non exercise control group for pain relief in hip OA. Two reviewers independently performed the data extraction and contacted the authors when necessary. Effect sizes (ES) of treatment versus control and the I(2) statistic to assess heterogeneity across trials were calculated. Trial data were combined using a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Nine trials met the inclusion criteria (1,234 subjects), 7 of which combined hip and knee OA; therefore, we contacted the authors who provided the data on hip OA patients. In comparing exercise treatment versus control, we found a beneficial effect of exercise with an ES of -0.38 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] -0.68, -0.08; P = 0.01), but with high heterogeneity (I(2) = 75%) among trials. Heterogeneity was caused by 1 trial consisting of an exercise intervention that was not administered in person. Removing this study left 8 trials (n = 493) with similar exercise strategy (specialized hands-on exercise training, all of which included at least some element of muscle strengthening), and demonstrated exercise benefit with an ES of -0.46 (95% CI -0.64, -0.28; P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Therapeutic exercise, especially with an element of strengthening, is an efficacious treatment for hip OA.

Content comparison of health-related quality of life instruments for obstructive sleep apnea

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Due to the increasing importance of quality of life assessments in obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) patients and due to an increased use of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF), for comparative purposes it is essential to understand the relationship between health-related quality of life (HRQOL) instruments and the ICF. The purpose of this study was to compare the content covered by OSA-specific instruments using the ICF. PATIENTS AND METHODS: OSA-specific instruments were identified, including the Calgary Sleep Apnea Quality of Life Index, the Functional Outcomes of Sleep Questionnaire, the Obstructive Sleep Apnea Patient-Oriented Severity Index, and the Quebec Sleep Questionnaire, and linked to the ICF by six health professionals according to standardized guidelines. The degree of agreement between health professionals was calculated by means of the kappa statistic. RESULTS: A total of 308 concepts were identified and linked to 78 different ICF categories; 35 categories of the component body function, one category of the component body structure, 38 categories of the component activities and participation, and four categories of the component environmental factors. Only contents within the chapters mental functions, mobility and social life were addressed by all instruments. Forty-seven categories were covered by only one instrument. CONCLUSION: The ICF proved highly useful for the comparison of HRQOL instruments. This analysis may help researchers and clinicians to choose the most appropriate HRQOL instrument for a specific purpose as well as help to compare study outcomes of studies using different instruments for HRQOL assessment.

A systematic review assessing soft tissue augmentation techniques

AIM: The aim of the present review was to systematically assess the dental literature in terms of soft tissue grafting techniques. The focused question was: is one method superior over others for augmentation and stability of the augmented soft tissue in terms of increasing the width of keratinized tissue (part 1) and gain in soft tissue volume (part 2). METHODS: A Medline search was performed for human studies focusing on augmentation of keratinized tissue and/or soft tissue volume, and complemented by additional hand searching. Relevant studies were identified and statistical results were reported for meta-analyses including the test minus control weighted mean differences with 95% confidence intervals, the I-squared statistic for tests of heterogeneity, and the number of significant studies. RESULTS: Twenty-five (part 1) and three (part 2) studies met the inclusion criteria; 14 studies (part 1) were eligible for comparison using meta-analyses. An apically positioned flap/vestibuloplasty (APF/V) procedure resulted in a statistically significantly greater gain in keratinized tissue than untreated controls. APF/V plus autogenous tissue revealed statistically significantly more attached gingiva compared with untreated controls and a borderline statistical significance compared with APF/V plus allogenic tissue. Statistically significantly more shrinkage was observed for the APF/V plus allogenic graft compared with the APF/V plus autogenous tissue. Patient-centered outcomes did not reveal any of the treatment methods to be superior regarding postoperative complications. The three studies reporting on soft tissue volume augmentation could not be compared due to lack of homogeneity. The use of subepithelial connective tissue grafts (SCTGs) resulted in statistically significantly more soft tissue volume gain compared with free gingival grafts (FGGs). CONCLUSIONS: APF/V is a successful treatment concept to increase the width of keratinized tissue or attached gingiva around teeth. The addition of autogenous tissue statistically significantly increases the width of attached gingiva. For soft tissue volume augmentation, only limited data are available favoring SCTGs over FGG.

Leg ischemia: assessment with MR angiography and spectroscopy

PURPOSE: To prospectively determine reproducibility of magnetic resonance (MR) angiography and MR spectroscopy of deoxymyoglobin in assessment of collateral vessels and tissue perfusion in patients with critical limb ischemia (CLI) and to follow changes in patients undergoing intramuscular vascular endothelial growth factor (pVEGF)-C gene therapy, percutaneous transluminal angioplasty, supervised exercise training, or no therapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Study and gene therapy protocols were approved, and all patients gave written informed consent. To determine repeatability and reproducibility, seven patients underwent MR angiography and five underwent MR spectroscopy. The techniques were used to judge disease progress in 12 other patients with or without therapy: MR angiography to help determine change in visualization of collateral vessels and MR spectroscopy to help assess change in perfusion at proximal and distal calf levels. MR angiographic results were subjectively analyzed by three blinded readers. Intraobserver variability was expressed as 95% confidence interval (CI) (n=7); interobserver variability, as kappa statistic (n=15). Reexamination variability of MR spectroscopy was given as 95% CI for subsequent recovery times, and correlation with disease extent was calculated with Kendall taub rank correlation. Fisher-Yates test was used to correlate changes with pressure measurements and clinical course. RESULTS: Intraobserver and interobserver concordance was sensitive for detection of collateral vessels. Intraobserver agreement was 85.7% (95% CI: 42.1%, 99.6%). Interobserver agreement was high for small collateral vessels (kappa=0.74, P <.001) and fair for large collateral vessels (kappa=0.36, P=.002). MR spectroscopy was reproducible (95% CI: +/-26 seconds for proximal, +/-21 seconds for distal) and showed a correlation with disease extent (proximal calf, taub=0.84, P <.001; distal calf, taub=0.68, P=.04). Small collateral vessels increased over time (P=.04) but did not correlate with pressure measurements and clinical course. Recovery time correlated with clinical course (proximal calf, P=.03; distal calf, P=.005). CONCLUSION: MR angiography and MR spectroscopy of deoxymyoglobin can help document changes in visualization of collateral vessels and tissue perfusion in patients with CLI.

Comparative Analysis of Evolving Software Systems Using the Gini Coefficient

Software metrics offer us the promise of distilling useful information from vast amounts of software in order to track development progress, to gain insights into the nature of the software, and to identify potential problems. Unfortunately, however, many software metrics exhibit highly skewed, non-Gaussian distributions. As a consequence, usual ways of interpreting these metrics --- for example, in terms of "average" values --- can be highly misleading. Many metrics, it turns out, are distributed like wealth --- with high concentrations of values in selected locations. We propose to analyze software metrics using the Gini coefficient, a higher-order statistic widely used in economics to study the distribution of wealth. Our approach allows us not only to observe changes in software systems efficiently, but also to assess project risks and monitor the development process itself. We apply the Gini coefficient to numerous metrics over a range of software projects, and we show that many metrics not only display remarkably high Gini values, but that these values are remarkably consistent as a project evolves over time.

A connection between two nonparametric tests for perfect ranking in balanced ranked set sampling

In this note, we show that an extension of a test for perfect ranking in a balanced ranked set sample given by Li and Balakrishnan (2008) to the multi-cycle case turns out to be equivalent to the test statistic proposed by Frey et al. (2007). This provides an alternative interpretation and motivation for their test statistic.

Prediction of 1-year mortality in patients with acute coronary syndromes undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: validation of the logistic clinical SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Interventions With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score

OBJECTIVES This study sought to validate the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX (Synergy Between Percutaneous Coronary Intervention With Taxus and Cardiac Surgery) score in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes (ACS), in order to further legitimize its clinical application. BACKGROUND The Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score allows for an individualized prediction of 1-year mortality in patients undergoing contemporary percutaneous coronary intervention. It is composed of a "Core" Model (anatomical SYNTAX score, age, creatinine clearance, and left ventricular ejection fraction), and "Extended" Model (composed of an additional 6 clinical variables), and has previously been cross validated in 7 contemporary stent trials (>6,000 patients). METHODS One-year all-cause death was analyzed in 2,627 patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention from the ACUITY (Acute Catheterization and Urgent Intervention Triage Strategy) trial. Mortality predictions from the Core and Extended Models were studied with respect to discrimination, that is, separation of those with and without 1-year all-cause death (assessed by the concordance [C] statistic), and calibration, that is, agreement between observed and predicted outcomes (assessed with validation plots). Decision curve analyses, which weight the harms (false positives) against benefits (true positives) of using a risk score to make mortality predictions, were undertaken to assess clinical usefulness. RESULTS In the ACUITY trial, the median SYNTAX score was 9.0 (interquartile range 5.0 to 16.0); approximately 40% of patients had 3-vessel disease, 29% diabetes, and 85% underwent drug-eluting stent implantation. Validation plots confirmed agreement between observed and predicted mortality. The Core and Extended Models demonstrated substantial improvements in the discriminative ability for 1-year all-cause death compared with the anatomical SYNTAX score in isolation (C-statistics: SYNTAX score: 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56 to 0.71; Core Model: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.79; Extended Model: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.70 to 0.83). Decision curve analyses confirmed the increasing ability to correctly identify patients who would die at 1 year with the Extended Model versus the Core Model versus the anatomical SYNTAX score, over a wide range of thresholds for mortality risk predictions. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the anatomical SYNTAX score alone, the Core and Extended Models of the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score more accurately predicted individual 1-year mortality in patients presenting with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. These findings support the clinical application of the Logistic Clinical SYNTAX score.