Debris discs around M stars: non-existence versus non-detection

Motivated by the reported dearth of debris discs around M stars, we use survival models to study the occurrence of planetesimal discs around them. These survival models describe a planetesimal disc with a small number of parameters, determine if it may survive a series of dynamical processes and compute the associated infrared excess. For the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) satellite, we demonstrate that the dearth of debris discs around M stars may be attributed to the small semimajor axes generally probed if either: (1) the dust grains behave like blackbodies emitting at a peak wavelength coincident with the observed one; (2) or the grains are hotter than predicted by their blackbody temperatures and emit at peak wavelengths that are shorter than the observed one. At these small distances from the M star, planetesimals are unlikely to survive or persist for time-scales of 300 Myr or longer if the disc is too massive. Conversely, our survival models allow for the existence of a large population of low-mass debris discs that are too faint to be detected with current instruments. We gain further confidence in our interpretation by demonstrating the ability to compute infrared excesses for Sun-like stars that are broadly consistent with reported values in the literature. However, our interpretation becomes less clear and large infrared excesses are allowed if only one of these scenarios holds: (3) the dust grains are hotter than blackbody and predominantly emit at the observed wavelength; (4) or are blackbody in nature and emit at peak wavelengths longer than the observed one. Both scenarios imply that the parent planetesimals reside at larger distances from the star than inferred if the dust grains behaved like blackbodies. In all scenarios, we show that the infrared excesses detected at 22 μm (via WISE) and 70 μm (via Spitzer) from AU Mic are easily reconciled with its young age (12 Myr). Conversely, the existence of the old debris disc (2–8 Gyr) from GJ 581 is due to the large semimajor axes probed by the Herschel PACS instrument. We elucidate the conditions under which stellar wind drag may be neglected when considering dust populations around M stars. The WISE satellite should be capable of detecting debris discs around young M stars with ages ∼10 Myr.

The VLT/NaCo large program to probe the occurrence of exoplanets and brown dwarfs at wide orbits II. Survey description, results, and performances

Context. Young, nearby stars are ideal targets for direct imaging searches for giant planets and brown dwarf companions. After the first-imaged planet discoveries, vast efforts have been devoted to the statistical analysis of the occurence and orbital distributions of giant planets and brown dwarf companions at wide (>= 5-6 AU) orbits. Aims. In anticipation of the VLT/SPHERE planet-imager, guaranteed-time programs, we have conducted a preparatory survey of 86 stars between 2009 and 2013 to identify new faint comoving companions to ultimately analyze the occurence of giant planets and brown dwarf companions at wide (10-2000 AU) orbits around young, solar-type stars. Methods. We used NaCo at VLT to explore the occurrence rate of giant planets and brown dwarfs between typically 0.1 and 8 ''. Diffraction-limited observations in H-band combined with angular differential imaging enabled us to reach primary star-companion brightness ratios as small as 10(-6) at 1.5 ''. Repeated observations at several epochs enabled us to discriminate comoving companions from background objects. Results. During our survey, twelve systems were resolved as new binaries, including the discovery of a new white dwarf companion to the star HD8049. Around 34 stars, at least one companion candidate was detected in the observed field of view. More than 400 faint sources were detected; 90% of them were in four crowded fields. With the exception of HD8049 B, we did not identify any new comoving companions. The survey also led to spatially resolved images of the thin debris disk around HD61005 that have been published earlier. Finally, considering the survey detection limits, we derive a preliminary upper limit on the frequency of giant planets for the semi-major axes of [10, 2000] AU: typically less than 15% between 100 and 500 AU and less than 10% between 50 and 500 AU for exoplanets that are more massive than 5 M-Jup and 10 M-Jup respectively, if we consider a uniform input distribution and a confidence level of 95%. Conclusions. The results from this survey agree with earlier programs emphasizing that massive, gas giant companions on wide orbits around solar-type stars are rare. These results will be part of a broader analysis of a total of similar to 210 young, solar-type stars to bring further statistical constraints for theoretical models of planetary formation and evolution.

Clues on the frequency of giant planets in wide orbits

The available results of deep imaging searches for planetary companions around nearby stars provide us useful constraints on the frequencies of giant planets in very wide orbits. Here we present some preliminary results of the Monte Carlo simulation which compare the published detection limits with the generated planetary masses and orbital parameters. This allow us to consider the impications of the null detection, which comes from the direct imaging techniques, on the distributions of mass and semimajor axis derived from the results of the other search techniques and also to check the agreement of the observations with the available planetary formation models.

Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity

The Sun shows strong variability in its magnetic activity, from Grand minima to Grand maxima, but the nature of the variability is not fully understood, mostly because of the insufficient length of the directly observed solar activity records and of uncertainties related to long-term reconstructions. Here we present a new adjustment-free reconstruction of solar activity over three millennia and study its different modes. Methods. We present a new adjustment-free, physical reconstruction of solar activity over the past three millennia, using the latest verified carbon cycle, 14C production, and archeomagnetic field models. This great improvement allowed us to study different modes of solar activity at an unprecedented level of details. Results. The distribution of solar activity is clearly bi-modal, implying the existence of distinct modes of activity. The main regular activity mode corresponds to moderate activity that varies in a relatively narrow band between sunspot numbers 20 and 67. The existence of a separate Grand minimum mode with reduced solar activity, which cannot be explained by random fluctuations of the regular mode, is confirmed at a high confidence level. The possible existence of a separate Grand maximum mode is also suggested, but the statistics is too low to reach a confident conclusion. Conclusions. The Sun is shown to operate in distinct modes – a main general mode, a Grand minimum mode corresponding to an inactive Sun, and a possible Grand maximum mode corresponding to an unusually active Sun. These results provide important constraints for both dynamo models of Sun-like stars and investigations of possible solar influence on Earth’s climate.

Predictive Margins and Marginal Effects in Stata

Tables of estimated regression coefficients, usually accompanied by additional information such as standard errors, t-statistics, p-values, confidence intervals or significance stars, have long been the preferred way of communicating results from statistical models. In recent years, however, the limits of this form of exposition have been increasingly recognized. For example, interpretation of regression tables can be very challenging in the presence of complications such as interaction effects, categorical variables, or nonlinear functional forms. Furthermore, while these issues might still be manageable in the case of linear regression, interpretational difficulties can be overwhelming in nonlinear models such as logistic regression. To facilitate sensible interpretation of such models it is often necessary to compute additional results such as marginal effects, predictive margins, or contrasts. Moreover, smart graphical displays of results can be very valuable in making complex relations accessible. A number of helpful commands geared at supporting these tasks have been recently introduced in Stata, making elaborate interpretation and communication of regression results possible without much extra effort. Examples of such commands are -margins-, -contrasts-, and -marginsplot-. In my talk, I will discuss the capabilities of these commands and present a range of examples illustrating their use.

The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets

The meter-per-second precision achieved by today’s velocimeters enables us to search for 1−10 M⊕ planets in the habitable zone of cool stars. This paper reports on the detection of three planets orbiting GJ 163 (HIP 19394), a M3 dwarf monitored by our ESO/HARPS search for planets. We made use of the HARPS spectrograph to collect 150 radial velocities of GJ 163 over a period of eight years. We searched the radial-velocity time series for coherent signals and found five distinct periodic variabilities. We investigated the stellar activity and called into question the planetary interpretation for two signals. Before more data can be acquired we concluded that at least three planets are orbiting GJ 163. They have orbital periods of Pb = 8.632 ± 0.002, Pc = 25.63 ± 0.03, and Pd = 604 ± 8 days and minimum masses msini = 10.6 ± 0.6, 6.8 ± 0.9, and 29 ± 3 M⊕, respectively. We hold our interpretations for the two additional signals with periods P(e) = 19.4 and P(f) = 108 days. The inner pair presents an orbital period ratio of 2.97, but a dynamical analysis of the system shows that it lays outside the 3:1 mean motion resonance. The planet GJ 163c, in particular, is a super-Earth with an equilibrium temperature of Teq = (302 ± 10)(1 − A)1/4 K and may lie in the so-called habitable zone for albedo values (A = 0.34 − 0.89) moderately higher than that of Earth (A⊕ = 0.2−0.3).

The HARPS search for southern extra-solar planets

The vast diversity of planetary systems detected to date is defying our capability of understanding their formation and evolution. Well-defined volume-limited surveys are the best tool at our disposal to tackle the problem, via the acquisition of robust statistics of the orbital elements. We are using the HARPS spectrograph to conduct our survey of ≈850 nearby solar-type stars, and in the course of the past nine years we have monitored the radial velocity of HD 103774, HD 109271, and BD-061339. In this work we present the detection of five planets orbiting these stars, with msin   (i) between 0.6 and 7 Neptune masses, four of which are in two multiple systems, comprising one super-Earth and one planet within the habitable zone of a late-type dwarf. Although for strategic reasons we chose efficiency over precision in this survey, we have the capability to detect planets down to the Neptune and super-Earth mass range as well as multiple systems, provided that enough data points are made available.