Nuclear power plants and childhood leukaemia: lessons from the past and future directions

In the 1980s, leukaemia clusters were discovered around nuclear fuel reprocessing plants in Sellafield and Dounreay in the United Kingdom. This raised public concern about the risk of childhood leukaemia near nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, the topic has been well-studied, but methodological limitations make results difficult to interpret. Our review aims to: (1.) summarise current evidence on the relationship between NPPs and risk of childhood leukaemia, with a focus on the Swiss CANUPIS (Childhood cancer and nuclear power plants in Switzerland) study; (2.) discuss the limitations of previous research; and (3.) suggest directions for future research. There are various reasons that previous studies produced inconclusive results. These include: inadequate study designs and limited statistical power due to the low prevalence of exposure (living near a NPP) and outcome (leukaemia); lack of accurate exposure estimates; limited knowledge of the aetiology of childhood leukaemia, particularly of vulnerable time windows and latent periods; use of residential location at time of diagnosis only and lack of data on address histories; and inability to adjust for potential confounders. We conclude that risk of childhood leukaemia around NPPs should continue to be monitored and that study designs should be improved and standardised. Data should be pooled internationally to increase the statistical power. More research needs to be done on other putative risk factors for childhood cancer such as low-dose ionizing radiation, exposure to certain chemicals and exposure to infections. Studies should be designed to allow examining multiple exposures.

Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a cooling of several degrees. In the stratosphere, the strong heating leads to an acceleration of catalytic ozone loss and, consequently, to enhancements of UV radiation at the ground. In contrast to surface temperature and precipitation changes, which show a linear dependence to the soot burden, there is a saturation effect with respect to stratospheric ozone chemistry. Soot emissions of 5 Tg lead to an ozone column reduction of almost 50% in northern high latitudes, while emitting 12 Tg only increases ozone loss by a further 10%. In summary, this study, though using a different chemistry climate model, corroborates the previous investigations with respect to the atmospheric impacts. In addition to these persistent effects, the present study draws attention to episodically cold phases, which would likely add to the severity of human harm worldwide. The best insurance against such a catastrophic development would be the delegitimization of nuclear weapons.

Experimental Characterization and Quantification of Cement-Bentonite Interaction using Core Infiltration Techniques Coupled with X-ray Tomography

Deep geological storage of radioactive waste foresees cementitious materials as reinforcement of tunnels and as backfill. Bentonite is proposed to enclose spent fuel canisters and as drift seals. Sand/bentonite (s/b) is foreseen as backfill material of access galleries or as drift seals. The emplacement of cementitious material next to clay material generates an enormous chemical gradient in pore-water composition that drives diffusive solute transport. Laboratory studies and reactive transport modeling predicted significant mineral alteration at and near interfaces, mainly resulting in a decrease of porosity in bentonite. The goal of this thesis was to characterize and quantify the cement/bentonite interactions both spatially and temporally in laboratory experiments. A newly developed mobile X-ray transparent core infiltration device was used to perform X-ray computed tomography (CT) scans without interruption of running experiments. CT scans allowed tracking the evolution of the reaction plume and changes in core volume/diameter/density during the experiments. In total 4 core infiltration experiments were carried out for this study with the compacted and saturated cores consisting of MX-80 bentonite and sand/MX-80 bentonite mixture (s/b; 65/35%). Two different high-pH cementitious pore-fluids were infiltrated: a young (early) ordinary Portland cement pore-fluid (APWOPC; K+–Na+–OH-; pH 13.4; ionic strength 0.28 mol/kg) and a young ‘low-pH’ ESDRED shotcrete pore-fluid (APWESDRED; Ca2+–Na+–K+–formate; pH 11.4; ionic strength 0.11 mol/kg). The experiments lasted between 1 and 2 years. In both bentonite experiments, the hydraulic conductivity was strongly reduced after switching to high-pH fluids, changing eventually from an advective to a diffusion-dominated transport regime. The reduction was mainly induced by mineral precipitation and possibly partly also by high ionic strength pore-fluids. Both bentonite cores showed a volume reduction and a resulting transient flow in which pore-water was squeezed out during high-pH infiltration. The outflow chemistry was characterized by a high ionic strength, while chloride in the initial pore water got replaced as main anionic charge carrier by sulfate, originating from gypsum dissolution. The chemistry of the high-pH fluids got strongly buffered by the bentonite, consuming hydroxide and in case of APWESDRED also formate. Hydroxide got consumed by mineral reactions (saponite and possibly talc and brucite precipitation), while formate being affected by bacterial degradation. Post-mortem analysis showed reaction zones near the inlet of the bentonite core, characterized by calcium and magnesium enrichment, consisting predominately of calcite and saponite, respectively. Silica got enriched in the outflow, indicating dissolution of silicate-minerals, identified as preferentially cristobalite. In s/b, infiltration of APWOPC reduced the hydraulic conductivity strongly, while APWESDRED infiltration had no effect. The reduction was mainly induced by mineral precipitation and probably partly also by high ionic strength pore-fluids. Not clear is why the observed mineral precipitates in the APWESDRED experiment had no effect on the fluid flow. Both s/b cores showed a volume expansion along with decreasing ionic strengths of the outflow, due to mineral reactions or in case of APWESDRED infiltration also mediated by microbiological activity, consuming hydroxide and formate, respectively. The chemistry of the high-pH fluids got strongly buffered by the s/b. In the case of APWESDRED infiltration, formate reached the outflow only for a short time, followed by enrichment in acetate, indicating most likely biological activity. This was in agreement to post-mortem analysis of the core, observing black spots on the inflow surface, while the sample had a rotten-egg smell indicative of some sulfate reduction. Post-mortem analysis showed further in both cores a Ca-enrichment in the first 10 mm of the core due to calcite precipitation. Mg-enrichment was only observed in the APWOPC experiment, originating from newly formed saponite. Silica got enriched in the outflow of both experiments, indicating dissolution of silicate-minerals, identified in the OPC experiment as cristobalite. The experiments attested an effective buffering capacity for bentonite and s/b, a progressing coupled hydraulic-chemical sealing process and also the preservation of the physical integrity of the interface region in this setup with a total pressure boundary condition on the core sample. No complete pore-clogging was observed but the hydraulic conductivity got rather strongly reduced in 3 experiments, explained by clogging of the intergranular porosity (macroporosity). Such a drop in hydraulic conductivity may impact the saturation time of the buffer in a nuclear waste repository, although the processes and geometry will be more complex in repository situation.