The Effects of Density, Spatial Pattern, and Competitive Symmetry on Size Variation in Simulated Plant Populations

Patterns of size inequality in crowded plant populations are often taken to be indicative of the degree of size asymmetry of competition, but recent research suggests that some of the patterns attributed to size‐asymmetric competition could be due to spatial structure. To investigate the theoretical relationships between plant density, spatial pattern, and competitive size asymmetry in determining size variation in crowded plant populations, we developed a spatially explicit, individual‐based plant competition model based on overlapping zones of influence. The zone of influence of each plant is modeled as a circle, growing in two dimensions, and is allometrically related to plant biomass. The area of the circle represents resources potentially available to the plant, and plants compete for resources in areas in which they overlap. The size asymmetry of competition is reflected in the rules for dividing up the overlapping areas. Theoretical plant populations were grown in random and in perfectly uniform spatial patterns at four densities under size‐asymmetric and size‐symmetric competition. Both spatial pattern and size asymmetry contributed to size variation, but their relative importance varied greatly over density and over time. Early in stand development, spatial pattern was more important than the symmetry of competition in determining the degree of size variation within the population, but after plants grew and competition intensified, the size asymmetry of competition became a much more important source of size variation. Size variability was slightly higher at higher densities when competition was symmetric and plants were distributed nonuniformly in space. In a uniform spatial pattern, size variation increased with density only when competition was size asymmetric. Our results suggest that when competition is size asymmetric and intense, it will be more important in generating size variation than is local variation in density. Our results and the available data are consistent with the hypothesis that high levels of size inequality commonly observed within crowded plant populations are largely due to size‐asymmetric competition, not to variation in local density.

Spatial gradients of temperature, accumulation and delta18O-ice in Greenland over a series of Dansgaard-Oeschger events

Air and water stable isotope measurements from four Greenland deep ice cores (GRIP, GISP2, NGRIP and NEEM) are investigated over a series of Dansgaard–Oeschger events (DO 8, 9 and 10), which are representative of glacial millennial scale variability. Combined with firn modeling, air isotope data allow us to quantify abrupt temperature increases for each drill site (1σ = 0.6 °C for NEEM, GRIP and GISP2, 1.5 °C for NGRIP). Our data show that the magnitude of stadial–interstadial temperature increase is up to 2 °C larger in central and North Greenland than in northwest Greenland: i.e., for DO 8, a magnitude of +8.8 °C is inferred, which is significantly smaller than the +11.1 °C inferred at GISP2. The same spatial pattern is seen for accumulation increases. This pattern is coherent with climate simulations in response to reduced sea-ice extent in the Nordic seas. The temporal water isotope (δ18O)–temperature relationship varies between 0.3 and 0.6 (±0.08) ‰ °C−1 and is systematically larger at NEEM, possibly due to limited changes in precipitation seasonality compared to GISP2, GRIP or NGRIP. The gas age−ice age difference of warming events represented in water and air isotopes can only be modeled when assuming a 26% (NGRIP) to 40% (GRIP) lower accumulation than that derived from a Dansgaard–Johnsen ice flow model.

Spatial patterns and species performances in experimental plant communities

Amongst the various hypotheses that challenged to explain the coexistence of species with similar life histories, theoretical, and empirical studies suggest that spatial processes may slow down competitive exclusion and hence promote coexistence even in the absence of evident trade-offs and frequent disturbances. We investigated the effects of spatial pattern and density on the relative importance of intra- and interspecific competition in a field experiment. We hypothesized that weak competitors increased biomass and seed production within neighborhoods of conspecifics, while stronger competitors would show increased biomass and seed production within neighborhoods of heterospecifics. Seeds of four annual plant species (Capsella bursa-pastoris, Stachys annua, Stellaria media, Poa annua) were sown in two spatial patterns (aggregated vs. random) and at two densities (low vs. high) in three different species combinations (monocultures, three and four species mixtures). There was a hierarchy in biomass production among the four species and C. bursa-pastoris and S. media were among the weak competitors. Capsella and Stellaria showed increased biomass production and had more individuals in the aggregated compared to the random pattern, especially when both superior competitors (S. annua, P. annua) were present. For P. annua we observed considerable differences among species combinations and unexpected pattern effects. Our findings support the hypothesis that weak competitors increase their fitness when grown in the neighborhood of conspecifics, and suggested that for the weakest competitors the species identity is not important and all other species are best avoided through intraspecific aggregation. In addition, our data suggest that the importance of spatial pattern for the other competitors might not only depend on the position within the hierarchy but also on the identity of neighbor species, species characteristics, below ground interactions, and other nonspatial factors.

Pattern and process: competition causes regular spacing of individuals within plant populations

1 We used simulated and experimental plant populations to analyse mortality-driven pattern formation under size-dependent competition. Larger plants had an advantage under size-asymmetric but not under symmetric competition. Initial patterns were random or clumped. 2 The simulations were individual-based and spatially explicit. Size-dependent competition was modelled with different rules to partition overlapping zones of influence. 3 The experiment used genotypes of Arabidopsis thaliana with different morphological plasticity and hence size-dependent competition. Compared with wild types, transgenic individuals over-expressed phytochrome A and had decreased plasticity because of disabled phytochrome-mediated shade avoidance. Therefore, competition among transgenics was more asymmetric compared with wild-types. 4 Density-dependent mortality under symmetric competition did not substantially change the initial spatial pattern. Conversely, simulations under asymmetric competition and experimental patterns of transgenic over-expressors showed patterns of survivors that deviated substantially from random mortality independent of initial patterns. 5 Small-scale initial patterns of wild types were regular rather than random or clumped. We hypothesize that this small-scale regularity may be explained by early shade avoidance of seedlings in their cotyledon stage. 6 Our experimental results support predictions from an individual-based simulation model and support the conclusion that regular spatial patterns of surviving individuals should be interpreted as evidence for strong, asymmetric competitive interactions and subsequent density-dependent mortality.

Differential patterns of multisensory interactions in core and belt areas of human auditory cortex

The auditory cortex is anatomically segregated into a central core and a peripheral belt region, which exhibit differences in preference to bandpassed noise and in temporal patterns of response to acoustic stimuli. While it has been shown that visual stimuli can modify response magnitude in auditory cortex, little is known about differential patterns of multisensory interactions in core and belt. Here, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging and examined the influence of a short visual stimulus presented prior to acoustic stimulation on the spatial pattern of blood oxygen level-dependent signal response in auditory cortex. Consistent with crossmodal inhibition, the light produced a suppression of signal response in a cortical region corresponding to the core. In the surrounding areas corresponding to the belt regions, however, we found an inverse modulation with an increasing signal in centrifugal direction. Our data suggest that crossmodal effects are differentially modulated according to the hierarchical core-belt organization of auditory cortex.

On the variability of return periods of European winter precipitation extremes over the last three centuries

We investigate the changes of extreme European winter (December-February) precipitation back to 1700 and show for various European regions that return periods of extremely wet and dry winters are subject to significant changes both before and after the onset of anthropogenic influences. Generally, winter precipitation has become more extreme. We also examine the spatial pattern of the changes of the extremes covering the last 300 years where data quality is sufficient. Over central and Eastern Europe dry winters occurred more frequently during the 18th and the second part of the 19th century relative to 1951–2000. Dry winters were less frequent during both the 18th and 19th century over the British Isles and the Mediterranean. Wet winters have been less abundant during the last three centuries compared to 1951–2000 except during the early 18th century in central Europe. Although winter precipitation extremes are affected by climate change, no obvious connection of these changes was found to solar, volcanic or anthropogenic forcing. However, physically meaningful interpretation with atmospheric circulation changes was possible.

Investigating the consistency between proxy-based reconstructions and climate models using data assimilation: a mid-Holocene case study

The mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP; thousand years before present) is a key period to study the consistency between model results and proxy-based reconstruction data as it corresponds to a standard test for models and a reasonable number of proxy-based records is available. Taking advantage of this relatively large amount of information, we have compared a compilation of 50 air and sea surface temperature reconstructions with the results of three simulations performed with general circulation models and one carried out with LOVECLIM, a model of intermediate complexity. The conclusions derived from this analysis confirm that models and data agree on the large-scale spatial pattern but the models underestimate the magnitude of some observed changes and that large discrepancies are observed at the local scale. To further investigate the origin of those inconsistencies, we have constrained LOVECLIM to follow the signal recorded by the proxies selected in the compilation using a data-assimilation method based on a particle filter. In one simulation, all the 50 proxy-based records are used while in the other two only the continental or oceanic proxy-based records constrain the model results. As expected, data assimilation leads to improving the consistency between model results and the reconstructions. In particular, this is achieved in a robust way in all the experiments through a strengthening of the westerlies at midlatitude that warms up northern Europe. Furthermore, the comparison of the LOVECLIM simulations with and without data assimilation has also objectively identified 16 proxy-based paleoclimate records whose reconstructed signal is either incompatible with the signal recorded by some other proxy-based records or with model physics.

Evidence that the novel receptor FGFRL1 signals indirectly via FGFR1

Fibroblast growth factor (FGF) receptor-like protein 1 (FGFRL1) is a recently discovered member of the FGF receptor (FGFR) family. Similar to the classical FGFRs, it contains three extracellular immunoglobulin-like domains and interacts with FGF ligands. However, in contrast to the classical receptors, it does not contain any intracellular tyrosine kinase domain and consequently cannot signal by transphosphorylation. In mouse kidneys, FgfrL1 is expressed primarily at embryonic stages E14-E15 in regions where nascent nephrons develop. In this study, we used whole-mount in situ hybridization to show the spatial pattern of five different Fgfrs in the developing mouse kidney. We compared the expression pattern of FgfrL1 with that of other Fgfrs. The expression pattern of FgfrL1 closely resembled that of Fgfr1, but clearly differed from that of Fgfr2‑Fgfr4. It is therefore conceivable that FgfrL1 signals indirectly via Fgfr1. The mechanisms by which FgfrL1 affects the activity of Fgfr1 remain to be elucidated.

Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe

Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth’s recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.

Projected pH reductions by 2100 might put deep North Atlantic biodiversity at risk

This study aims to evaluate the potential for impacts of ocean acidification on North Atlantic deep-sea ecosystems in response to IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Deep-sea biota is likely highly vulnerable to changes in seawater chemistry and sensitive to moderate excursions in pH. Here we show, from seven fully coupled Earth system models, that for three out of four RCPs over 17% of the seafloor area below 500 m depth in the North Atlantic sector will experience pH reductions exceeding −0.2 units by 2100. Increased stratification in response to climate change partially alleviates the impact of ocean acidification on deep benthic environments. We report on major pH reductions over the deep North Atlantic seafloor (depth >500 m) and at important deep-sea features, such as seamounts and canyons. By 2100, and under the high CO2 scenario RCP8.5, pH reductions exceeding −0.2 (−0.3) units are projected in close to 23% (~15%) of North Atlantic deep-sea canyons and ~8% (3%) of seamounts – including seamounts proposed as sites of marine protected areas. The spatial pattern of impacts reflects the depth of the pH perturbation and does not scale linearly with atmospheric CO2 concentration. Impacts may cause negative changes of the same magnitude or exceeding the current target of 10% of preservation of marine biomes set by the convention on biological diversity, implying that ocean acidification may offset benefits from conservation/management strategies relying on the regulation of resource exploitation.

A community-based geological reconstruction of Antarctic Ice Sheet deglaciation since the Last Glacial Maximum

A robust understanding of Antarctic Ice Sheet deglacial history since the Last Glacial Maximum is important in order to constrain ice sheet and glacial-isostatic adjustment models, and to explore the forcing mechanisms responsible for ice sheet retreat. Such understanding can be derived from a broad range of geological and glaciological datasets and recent decades have seen an upsurge in such data gathering around the continent and Sub-Antarctic islands. Here, we report a new synthesis of those datasets, based on an accompanying series of reviews of the geological data, organised by sector. We present a series of timeslice maps for 20 ka, 15 ka, 10 ka and 5 ka, including grounding line position and ice sheet thickness changes, along with a clear assessment of levels of confidence. The reconstruction shows that the Antarctic Ice sheet did not everywhere reach the continental shelf edge at its maximum, that initial retreat was asynchronous, and that the spatial pattern of deglaciation was highly variable, particularly on the inner shelf. The deglacial reconstruction is consistent with a moderate overall excess ice volume and with a relatively small Antarctic contribution to meltwater pulse 1a. We discuss key areas of uncertainty both around the continent and by time interval, and we highlight potential priorities for future work. The synthesis is intended to be a resource for the modelling and glacial geological community.

Carbon storage versus albedo change: radiative forcing of forest expansion in temperate mountainous regions of Switzerland

In this study, we assess the climate mitigation potential from afforestation in a mountainous snow-rich region (Switzerland) with strongly varying environmental conditions. Using radiative forcing calculations, we quantify both the carbon sequestration potential and the effect of albedo change at high resolution. We calculate the albedo radiative forcing based on remotely sensed data sets of albedo, global radiation and snow cover. Carbon sequestration is estimated from changes in carbon stocks based on national inventories. We first estimate the spatial pattern of radiative forcing (RF) across Switzerland assuming homogeneous transitions from open land to forest. This highlights where forest expansion still exhibits climatic benefits when including the radiative forcing of albedo change. Second, given that forest expansion is currently the dominant land-use change process in the Swiss Alps, we calculate the radiative forcing that occurred between 1985 and 1997. Our results show that the net RF of forest expansion ranges from −24 W m−2 at low elevations of the northern Prealps to 2 W m−2 at high elevations of the Central Alps. The albedo RF increases with increasing altitude, which offsets the CO2 RF at high elevations with long snow-covered periods, high global radiation and low carbon sequestration. Albedo RF is particularly relevant during transitions from open land to open forest but not in later stages of forest development. Between 1985 and 1997, when overall forest expansion in Switzerland was approximately 4%, the albedo RF offset the CO2 RF by an average of 40%. We conclude that the albedo RF should be considered at an appropriately high resolution when estimating the climatic effect of forestation in temperate mountainous regions.

Serosurveillance of Schmallenberg virus in Switzerland using bulk tank milk samples.

Infections with Schmallenberg virus (SBV), a novel Orthobunyavirus transmitted by biting midges, can cause abortions and malformations of newborns and severe symptoms in adults of domestic and wild ruminants. Understanding the temporal and spatial distribution of the virus in a certain territory is important for the control and prevention of the disease. In this study, seroprevalence of antibodies against SBV and the spatial spread of the virus was investigated in Swiss dairy cattle applying a milk serology technique on bulk milk samples. The seroprevalence in cattle herds was significantly higher in December 2012 (99.5%) compared to July 2012 (19.7%). This high between-herd seroprevalence in cattle herds was observed shortly after the first detection of viral infections. Milk samples originating from farms with seropositive animals taken in December 2012 (n=209; mean 160%) revealed significantly higher S/P% ratios than samples collected in July 2012 (n=48; mean 103.6%). This finding suggests a high within-herd seroprevalence in infected herds which makes testing of bulk tank milk samples for the identification farms with past exposures to SBV a sensitive method. It suggests also that within-herd transmission followed by seroconversion still occurred between July and December. In July 2012, positive bulk tank milk samples were mainly restricted to the western part of Switzerland whereas in December 2012, all samples except one were positive. A spatial analysis revealed a separation of regions with and without positive farms in July 2012 and no spatial clustering within the regions with positive farms. In contrast to the spatial dispersion of bluetongue virus, a virus that is also transmitted by Culicoides midges, in 2008 in Switzerland, the spread of SBV occurred from the western to the eastern part of the country. The dispersed incursion of SBV took place in the western part of Switzerland and the virus spread rapidly to the remaining territory. This spatial pattern is consistent with the hypothesis that transmission by Culicoides midges was the main way of spreading.

The deglaciation history of the Simplon region (southern Swiss Alps) constrained by 10Be exposure dating of ice-molded bedrock surfaces

The deglaciation history of the Swiss Alps after the Last Glacial Maximum involved the decay of several ice domes and the subsequent disintegration of valley glaciers at high altitude. Here we use bedrock exposure dating to reconstruct the temporal and spatial pattern of ice retreat at the Simplon Pass (altitude: ∼2000 m) located 40 km southwest of the ‘Rhône ice dome’. Eleven 10Be exposure ages from glacially polished quartz veins and ice-molded bedrock surfaces cluster tightly between 13.5 ± 0.6 ka and 15.4 ± 0.6 ka (internal errors) indicating that the Simplon Pass depression became ice-free at 14.1 ± 0.4 ka (external error of mean age). This age constraint is interpreted to record the melting of the high valley glaciers in the Simplon Pass region during the warm Bølling–Allerød interstadial shortly after the Oldest Dryas stadial. Two bedrock samples collected a few hundred meters above the pass depression yield older 10Be ages of 17.8 ± 0.6 ka and 18.0 ± 0.6 ka. These ages likely reflect the initial downwasting of the Rhône ice dome and the termination of the ice transfluence from the ice dome across the Simplon Pass toward the southern foreland. There, the retreat of the piedmont glacier in Val d’Ossola was roughly synchronous with the decay of the Rhône ice dome in the interior of the mountain belt, as shown by 10Be ages of 17.7 ± 0.9 ka and 16.1 ± 0.6 ka for a whaleback at ∼500 m elevation near Montecrestese in northern Italy. In combination with well-dated paleoclimate records derived from lake sediments, our new age data suggest that during the deglaciation of the European Alps the decay of ice domes was approximately synchronous with the retreat of piedmont glaciers in the foreland and was followed by the melting of high-altitude valley glaciers after the transition from the Oldest Dryas to the Bølling–Allerød, when mean annual temperatures rose rapidly by ∼3 °C.