Policy Instrument Selection under Uncertainty: The Case of Micropollution Regulation

The paper addresses the question of which factors drive the formation of policy preferences when there are remaining uncertainties about the causes and effects of the problem at stake. To answer this question we examine policy preferences reducing aquatic micropollutants, a specific case of water protection policy and different actor groups (e.g. state, science, target groups). Here, we contrast two types of policy preferences: a) preventive or source-directed policies, which mitigate pollution in order to avoid contact with water; and b) reactive or end-of-pipe policies, which filter water already contaminated by pollutants. In a second step, we analyze the drivers for actors’ policy preferences by focusing on three sets of explanations, i.e. participation, affectedness and international collaborations. The analysis of our survey data, qualitative interviews and regression analysis of the Swiss political elite show that participation in the policy-making process leads to knowledge exchange and reduces uncertainties about the policy problem, which promotes preferences for preventive policies. Likewise, actors who are affected by the consequences of micropollutants, such as consumer or environmental associations, opt for anticipatory policies. Interestingly, we find that uncertainties about the effectiveness of preventive policies can promote preferences for end-of-pipe policies. While preventive measures often rely on (uncertain) behavioral changes of target groups, reactive policies are more reliable when it comes to fulfilling defined policy goals. Finally, we find that in a transboundary water management context, actors with international collaborations prefer policies that produce immediate and reliable outcomes.

Mycobacterium ulcerans persistence at a village water source of Buruli ulcer patients

Buruli ulcer (BU), a neglected tropical disease of the skin and subcutaneous tissue, is caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans and is the third most common mycobacterial disease after tuberculosis and leprosy. While there is a strong association of the occurrence of the disease with stagnant or slow flowing water bodies, the exact mode of transmission of BU is not clear. M. ulcerans has emerged from the environmental fish pathogen M. marinum by acquisition of a virulence plasmid encoding the enzymes required for the production of the cytotoxic macrolide toxin mycolactone, which is a key factor in the pathogenesis of BU. Comparative genomic studies have further shown extensive pseudogene formation and downsizing of the M. ulcerans genome, indicative for an adaptation to a more stable ecological niche. This has raised the question whether this pathogen is still present in water-associated environmental reservoirs. Here we show persistence of M. ulcerans specific DNA sequences over a period of more than two years at a water contact location of BU patients in an endemic village of Cameroon. At defined positions in a shallow water hole used by the villagers for washing and bathing, detritus remained consistently positive for M. ulcerans DNA. The observed mean real-time PCR Ct difference of 1.45 between the insertion sequences IS2606 and IS2404 indicated that lineage 3 M. ulcerans, which cause human disease, persisted in this environment after successful treatment of all local patients. Underwater decaying organic matter may therefore represent a reservoir of M. ulcerans for direct infection of skin lesions or vector-associated transmission.

The response of four winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) varieties to field water deficit: leaf anti-oxidative protection and proteolytic activity

Introduction: Drought is one of the most significant factors that limit plant productivity. Oxidative stress is a secondary event in many unfavorable environmental conditions. Intracellular proteases have a role in the metabolism reorganisation and nutrient remobilization under stress. In order to under stand the relative significance of oxidative stress and proteolysis in the yield reduction under drought, four varieties of Triticum aestivum L. with different field drought resistance were examined. Methods: A two-year field experiment was conducted. Analyses were performed on the upper most leaf of control plants and plants under water deficitat the stages most critical for yield reduction under drought (from jointing till milk ripeness). Leaf water deficit and electrolyte leakage, malondyaldehyde level, activities and isoenzymes of superoxide dismutase, catalase and peroxidase, leaf protein content and proteolytic activity were studied. Yield components were analyzed. Results: A general trend of increasing the membrane in stability and accumulation of lipid hydroperoxides was observed with some differences among varieties, especially under drought. The anti-oxidative enzyme activities were progressively enhanced, as well as the azocaseinolytic activities. The leaf protein content decreased under drought at the last phase. Differences among varieties were observed in the parameters under study. They were compared to yield components` reduction under water deprivation.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa outbreak in a pediatric oncology care unit caused by an errant water jet into contaminated siphons

We analyzed an outbreak of invasive infections with an exotoxin U positive Pseudomonas aeruginosa strain within a pediatric oncology care unit. Environmental sampling and molecular characterization of the Pseudomonas aeruginosa strains led to identification of the outbreak source. An errant water jet into the sink within patient rooms was observed. Optimized outbreak management resulted in an abundance of further Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections within the pediatric oncology care unit.

Improved water vapour spectroscopy in the 4174-4300 cm-1 region and its impact on SCIAMACHY HDO/H2O measurements

The relative abundance of the heavy water isotopologue HDO provides a deeper insight into the atmospheric hydrological cycle. The SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) allows for global retrievals of the ratio HDO/H2O in the 2.3 micron wavelength range. However, the spectroscopy of water lines in this region remains a large source of uncertainty for these retrievals. We therefore evaluate and improve the water spectroscopy in the range 4174–4300 cm−1 and test if this reduces systematic uncertainties in the SCIAMACHY retrievals of HDO/H2O. We use a laboratory spectrum of water vapour to fit line intensity, air broadening and wavelength shift parameters. The improved spectroscopy is tested on a series of ground-based high resolution FTS spectra as well as on SCIAMACHY retrievals of H2O and the ratio HDO/H2O. We find that the improved spectroscopy leads to lower residuals in the FTS spectra compared to HITRAN 2008 and Jenouvrier et al. (2007) spectroscopy, and the retrievals become more robust against changes in the retrieval window. For both the FTS and SCIAMACHY measurements, the retrieved total H2O columns decrease by 2–4% and we find a negative shift of the HDO/H2O ratio, which for SCIAMACHY is partly compensated by changes in the retrieval setup and calibration software. The updated SCIAMACHY HDO/H2O product shows somewhat steeper latitudinal and temporal gradients and a steeper Rayleigh distillation curve, strengthening previous conclusions that current isotope-enabled general circulation models underestimate the variability in the near-surface HDO/H2O ratio.

Monte Carlo simulation of a dynamic MLC based on a multiple source model

Detailed knowledge of the characteristics of the radiation field shaped by a multileaf collimator (MLC) is essential in intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). A previously developed multiple source model (MSM) for a 6 MV beam was extended to a 15 MV beam and supplemented with an accurate model of an 80-leaf dynamic MLC. Using the supplemented MSM and the MC code GEANT, lateral dose distributions were calculated in a water phantom and a portal water phantom. A field which is normally used for the validation of the step and shoot technique and a field from a realistic IMRT treatment plan delivered with dynamic MLC are investigated. To assess possible spectral changes caused by the modulation of beam intensity by an MLC, the energy spectra in five portal planes were calculated for moving slits of different widths. The extension of the MSM to 15 MV was validated by analysing energy fluences, depth doses and dose profiles. In addition, the MC-calculated primary energy spectrum was verified with an energy spectrum which was reconstructed from transmission measurements. MC-calculated dose profiles using the MSM for the step and shoot case and for the dynamic MLC case are in very good agreement with the measured data from film dosimetry. The investigation of a 13 cm wide field shows an increase in mean photon energy of up to 16% for the 0.25 cm slit compared to the open beam for 6 MV and of up to 6% for 15 MV, respectively. In conclusion, the MSM supplemented with the dynamic MLC has proven to be a powerful tool for investigational and benchmarking purposes or even for dose calculations in IMRT.

A multiple source model for 6 MV photon beam dose calculations using Monte Carlo

A multiple source model (MSM) for the 6 MV beam of a Varian Clinac 2300 C/D was developed by simulating radiation transport through the accelerator head for a set of square fields using the GEANT Monte Carlo (MC) code. The corresponding phase space (PS) data enabled the characterization of 12 sources representing the main components of the beam defining system. By parametrizing the source characteristics and by evaluating the dependence of the parameters on field size, it was possible to extend the validity of the model to arbitrary rectangular fields which include the central 3 x 3 cm2 field without additional precalculated PS data. Finally, a sampling procedure was developed in order to reproduce the PS data. To validate the MSM, the fluence, energy fluence and mean energy distributions determined from the original and the reproduced PS data were compared and showed very good agreement. In addition, the MC calculated primary energy spectrum was verified by an energy spectrum derived from transmission measurements. Comparisons of MC calculated depth dose curves and profiles, using original and PS data reproduced by the MSM, agree within 1% and 1 mm. Deviations from measured dose distributions are within 1.5% and 1 mm. However, the real beam leads to some larger deviations outside the geometrical beam area for large fields. Calculated output factors in 10 cm water depth agree within 1.5% with experimentally determined data. In conclusion, the MSM produces accurate PS data for MC photon dose calculations for the rectangular fields specified.

Potentials and constraints of modeling for transdisciplinary co-producing strategies for sustainable water governance

Both climate change and socio-economic development will significantly modify the supply and consumption of water in future. Consequently, regional development has to face aggravation of existing or emergence of new conflicts of interest. In this context, transdisciplinary co-production of knowledge is considered as an important means for coping with these challenges. Accordingly, the MontanAqua project aims at developing strategies for more sustainable water management in the study area Crans-Montana-Sierre (Switzerland) in a transdisciplinary way. It strives for co-producing system, target and transformation knowledge among researchers, policy makers, public administration and civil society organizations. The research process basically consisted of the following steps: First, the current water situation in the study region was investigated. How much water is available? How much water is being used? How are decisions on water distribution and use taken? Second, participatory scenario workshops were conducted in order to identify the stakeholders’ visions of regional development. Third, the water situation in 2050 was simulated by modeling the evolution of water resources and water use and by reflecting on the institutional aspects. These steps laid ground for jointly assessing the consequences of the stakeholders’ visions of development in view of scientific data regarding governance, availability and use of water in the region as well as developing necessary transformation knowledge. During all of these steps researchers have collaborated with stakeholders in the support group RegiEau. The RegiEau group consists of key representatives of owners, managers, users, and pressure groups related to water and landscape: representatives of the communes (mostly the presidents), the canton (administration and parliament), water management associations, agriculture, viticulture, hydropower, tourism, and landscape protection. The aim of the talk is to explore potentials and constraints of scientific modeling of water availability and use within the process of transdisciplinary co-producing strategies for more sustainable water governance.

Fog-water collection for community use

Fog is a potential source of water that could be exploited using the innovative technology of fog collection. Naturally, the potential of fog has proven its significance in cloud forests that are thriving from fog interception. Historically, the remains of artificial structures in different countries prove that fog has been collected as an alternative and/or supplementary water source. In the beginning of the 19th century, fog collection was investigated as a potential natural resource. After the mid-1980s, following success in Chile, fog-water collection commenced in a number of developing countries. Most of these countries are located in arid and semi-arid regions with topographic and climatic conditions that favour fog-water collection. This paper reviews the technology of fog collection with initial background information on natural fog collection and its historical development. It reviews the climatic and topographic features that dictate fog formation (mainly advection and orographic) and the innovative technology to collect it, focusing on the amount collected, the quality of fog water, and the impact of the technology on the livelihoods of beneficiary communities. By and large, the technology described is simple, cost-effective, and energy-free. However, fog-water collection has disadvantages in that it is seasonal, localised, and the technology needs continual maintenance. Based on the experience in several countries, the sustainability of the technology could be guaranteed if technical, economic, social, and management factors are addressed during its planning and implementation.

Noble gas, CFC and other geochemical evidence for the age and origin of the Bath thermal waters, UK

The city of Bath is a World Heritage site and its thermal waters, the Roman Baths and new spa development rely on undisturbed flow of the springs (45 °C). The current investigations provide an improved understanding of the residence times and flow regime as basis for the source protection. Trace gas indicators including the noble gases (helium, neon, argon, krypton and xenon) and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), together with a more comprehensive examination of chemical and stable isotope tracers are used to characterise the sources of the thermal water and any modern components. It is shown conclusively by the use of 39Ar that the bulk of the thermal water has been in circulation within the Carboniferous Limestone for at least 1000 years. Other stable isotope and noble gas measurements confirm previous findings and strongly suggest recharge within the Holocene time period (i.e. the last 12 kyr). Measurements of dissolved 85Kr and chlorofluorocarbons constrain previous indications from tritium that a small proportion (<5%) of the thermal water originates from modern leakage into the spring pipe passing through Mesozoic valley fill underlying Bath. This introduces small amounts of O2 into the system, resulting in the Fe precipitation seen in the King’s Spring. Silica geothermometry indicates that the water is likely to have reached a maximum temperature of between 69–99 °C, indicating a most probable maximum circulation depth of ∼3 km, which is in line with recent geological models. The rise to the surface of the water is sufficiently indirect that a temperature loss of >20 °C is incurred. There is overwhelming evidence that the water has evolved within the Carboniferous Limestone formation, although the chemistry alone cannot pinpoint the geometry of the recharge area or circulation route. For a likely residence time of 1–12 kyr, volumetric calculations imply a large storage volume and circulation pathway if typical porosities of the limestone at depth are used, indicating that much of the Bath-Bristol basin must be involved in the water storage.