The Nile perch invasion in Lake Victoria: cause or consequence of the haplochromine decline?

We review alternative hypotheses and associated mechanisms to explain Lake Victoria’s Nile perch takeover and concurrent reduction in haplochromines through a (re)analysis of long term climate, limnological and stock observations in comparison with size-spectrum model predictions of co-existence, extinction and demographic change. The empirical observations are in agreement with the outcomes of the model containing two interacting species with life-histories matching Nile perch and a generalized haplochromine. The dynamic interactions may have depended on size related differences in early juvenile mortality: mouth-brooding haplochromines escape predation mortality in early life stages, unlike Nile perch that have miniscule planktonic eggs and larvae. In our model predation on the latter by planktivorous haplochromine fry act as a stabilizing factor for co-existence, but external mortality on the haplochromines would disrupt this balance in favor of Nile perch. To explain the observed switch, mortality on haplochromines would need to be much higher than the fishing mortality that can be realistically re-constructed from observations. Abrupt concomitant changes in algal and zooplankton composition, decreased water column transparency, and widespread hypoxia from increased eutrophication most likely caused haplochromine biomass decline. We hypothesize that the shift to Nile perch was a consequence of an externally caused, climate triggered, decrease in haplochromine biomass and associated recruitment failure rather than a direct cause of the introduction.

Effectiveness of integrated care including therapeutic assertive community treatment in severe schizophrenia spectrum and bipolar I disorders: the 24-month follow-up ACCESS II study

OBJECTIVE The ACCESS treatment model offers assertive community treatment embedded in an integrated care program to patients with psychoses. Compared to standard care and within a controlled study, it proved to be more effective in terms of service disengagement and illness outcomes in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders over 12 months. ACCESS was implemented into clinical routine and its effectiveness assessed over 24 months in severe schizophrenia spectrum disorders and bipolar I disorder with psychotic features (DSM-IV) in a cohort study. METHOD All 115 patients treated in ACCESS (from May 2007 to October 2009) were included in the ACCESS II study. The primary outcome was rate of service disengagement. Secondary outcomes were change of psychopathology, severity of illness, psychosocial functioning, quality of life, satisfaction with care, medication nonadherence, length of hospital stay, and rates of involuntary hospitalization. RESULTS Only 4 patients (3.4%) disengaged with the service. Another 11 (9.6%) left because they moved outside the catchment area. Patients received a mean of 1.6 outpatient contacts per week. Involuntary admissions decreased from 34.8% in the 2 previous years to 7.8% during ACCESS (P < .001). Mixed models repeated-measures analyses revealed significant improvements among all patients in psychopathology (effect size d = 0.64, P < .001), illness severity (d = 0.84, P = .03), functioning level (d = 0.65, P < .001), quality of life (d = 0.50, P < .001), and client satisfaction (d = 0.11, P < .001). At 24 months, 78.3% were fully adherent to medication, compared to 25.2% at baseline (P = .002). CONCLUSIONS ACCESS was successfully implemented in clinical routine and maintained excellent rates of service engagement and other outcomes in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders or bipolar I disorder with psychotic features over 24 months. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01888627.

The transverse-momentum spectrum of Higgs bosons near threshold at NNLO

We give next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) predictions for the Higgs production cross section at large transverse momentum in the threshold limit. Near the partonic threshold, all radiation is either soft or collinear to the final state jet which recoils against the Higgs boson. We find that the real emission corrections are of moderate size, but that the virtual corrections are large. We discuss the origin of these corrections and give numerical predictions for the transverse-momentum spectrum. The threshold result is matched to the known NLO result and implemented in the public code PeTeR.