A physics-based correction model for homogenizing sub-daily temperature series

A new physics-based technique for correcting inhomogeneities present in sub-daily temperature records is proposed. The approach accounts for changes in the sensor-shield characteristics that affect the energy balance dependent on ambient weather conditions (radiation, wind). An empirical model is formulated that reflects the main atmospheric processes and can be used in the correction step of a homogenization procedure. The model accounts for short- and long-wave radiation fluxes (including a snow cover component for albedo calculation) of a measurement system, such as a radiation shield. One part of the flux is further modulated by ventilation. The model requires only cloud cover and wind speed for each day, but detailed site-specific information is necessary. The final model has three free parameters, one of which is a constant offset. The three parameters can be determined, e.g., using the mean offsets for three observation times. The model is developed using the example of the change from the Wild screen to the Stevenson screen in the temperature record of Basel, Switzerland, in 1966. It is evaluated based on parallel measurements of both systems during a sub-period at this location, which were discovered during the writing of this paper. The model can be used in the correction step of homogenization to distribute a known mean step-size to every single measurement, thus providing a reasonable alternative correction procedure for high-resolution historical climate series. It also constitutes an error model, which may be applied, e.g., in data assimilation approaches.

Multichannel EEG fields during and without visual input: frequency domain model source locations and dimensional complexities

27-Channel EEG potential map series were recorded from 12 normals with closed and open eyes. Intracerebral dipole model source locations in the frequency domain were computed. Eye opening (visual input) caused centralization (convergence and elevation) of the source locations of the seven frequency bands, indicative of generalized activity; especially, there was clear anteriorization of α-2 (10.5–12 Hz) and β-2 (18.5–21 Hz) sources (α-2 also to the left). Complexity of the map series' trajectories in state space (assessed by Global Dimensional Complexity and Global OMEGA Complexity) increased significantly with eye opening, indicative of more independent, parallel, active processes. Contrary to PET and fMRI, these results suggest that brain activity is more distributed and independent during visual input than after eye closing (when it is more localized and more posterior).

Uniform approach to linear and nonlinear interrelation patterns in multivariate time series

Currently, a variety of linear and nonlinear measures is in use to investigate spatiotemporal interrelation patterns of multivariate time series. Whereas the former are by definition insensitive to nonlinear effects, the latter detect both nonlinear and linear interrelation. In the present contribution we employ a uniform surrogate-based approach, which is capable of disentangling interrelations that significantly exceed random effects and interrelations that significantly exceed linear correlation. The bivariate version of the proposed framework is explored using a simple model allowing for separate tuning of coupling and nonlinearity of interrelation. To demonstrate applicability of the approach to multivariate real-world time series we investigate resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI) data of two healthy subjects as well as intracranial electroencephalograms (iEEG) of two epilepsy patients with focal onset seizures. The main findings are that for our rsfMRI data interrelations can be described by linear cross-correlation. Rejection of the null hypothesis of linear iEEG interrelation occurs predominantly for epileptogenic tissue as well as during epileptic seizures.

Rapid parallel adaptive radiations from a single hybridogenic ancestral population

The Alpine lake whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) species complex is a classic example of a recent radiation, associated with colonization of the Alpine lakes following the glacial retreat (less than 15 kyr BP). They have formed a unique array of endemic lake flocks, each with one to six described sympatric species differing in morphology, diet and reproductive ecology. Here, we present a genomic investigation of the relationships between and within the lake flocks. Comparing the signal between over 1000 AFLP loci and mitochondrial control region sequence data, we use phylogenetic tree-based and population genetic methods to reconstruct the phylogenetic history of the group and to delineate the principal centres of genetic diversity within the radiation. We find significant cytonuclear discordance showing that the genomically monophyletic Alpine whitefish clade arose from a hybrid swarm of at least two glacial refugial lineages. Within this radiation, we find seven extant genetic clusters centred on seven lake systems. Most interestingly, we find evidence of sympatric speciation within and parallel evolution of equivalent phenotypes among these lake systems. However, we also find the genetic signature of human-mediated gene flow and diversity loss within many lakes, highlighting the fragility of recent radiations.

Safety, effectiveness and predictors for early reoperation in therapeutic and prophylactic vertebroplasty: short-term results of a prospective case series of patients with osteoporotic vertebral fractures

Abstract Introduction Vertebroplasty (VP) is a cost-efficient alternative to kyphoplasty; however, regarding safety and vertebral body (VB) height restoration, it is considered inferior. We assessed the safety and efficacy of VP in alleviating pain, improving quality of life (QoL) and restoring alignment. Methods In a prospective monocenter case series from May 2007 until July 2008, there were 1,408 vertebroplasties performed during 319 interventions in 306 patients with traumatic, lytic and osteoporotic fractures. The 249 interventions in 233 patients performed because of osteoporotic vertebral fractures were analyzed regarding demographics, treatment and radiographic details, pain alleviation (VAS), QoL improvement (NASS and EQ-5D), complications and predictors for new fractures requiring a reoperation. Results The osteoporotic patient sample consisted of 76.7% (179) females with a median age of 80 years. A total of 54 males had a median age of 77 years. On average, there were 1.8 VBs fractured and 5 VBs treated. The preoperative pain was assessed by the visual analog scale (VAS) and decreased from 54.9 to 40.4 pts after 2 months and 31.2 pts after 6 months. Accordingly, the QoL on the EQ-5D measure (−0.6 to 1) improved from 0.35 pts before surgery to 0.56 pts after 2 and to 0.68 pts after 6 months. The preoperative Beck Index (anterior height/posterior height) improved from a mean of 0.64 preoperative to 0.76 postoperative, remained stable at 2 months and slightly deteriorated to 0.72 at 6 months postoperatively. There were cement leakages in 26% of the fractured VBs and in 1.4% of the prophylactically cemented VBs; there were symptoms in 4.3%, and most of them were temporary hypotension and one pulmonary cement embolism that remained asymptomatic. The univariate regression model revealed a tendency for a reduced risk for new or refractures on radiographs (OR = 2.61, 95% CI 0.92–7.38, p = 0.12) and reoperations (OR = 2.9, 95% CI 0.94–8.949, p = 0.1) when prophylactic augmentation was performed. The final multivariate regression model revealed male patients to have an about three times higher refracture risk (radiographic) (OR = 2.78, p = 0.02) at 6 months after surgery. Patients with a lumbar index fracture had an about three to five times higher refracture/reoperation risk than patients with a thoracic (OR = 0.33/0.35, p = 0.009/0.01) or thoracolumbar (OR = 0.32/0.22, p = 0.099/0.01) index fracture. Conclusion If routinely used, VP is a safe and efficacious treatment option for osteoporotic vertebral fractures with regard to pain relief and improvement of the QoL. Even segmental realignment can be partially achieved with proper patient positioning. Certain patient or fracture characteristics increase the risk for early radiographic refractures or new fractures, or a reoperation; a consequent prophylactic augmentation showed protective tendencies, but the study was underpowered for a final conclusion.

Changes in the use of broad-spectrum antibiotics after cefepime shortage: a time series analysis

The original cefepime product was withdrawn from the Swiss market in January 2007 and replaced by a generic 10 months later. The goals of the study were to assess the impact of this cefepime shortage on the use and costs of alternative broad-spectrum antibiotics, on antibiotic policy, and on resistance of Pseudomonas aeruginosa toward carbapenems, ceftazidime, and piperacillin-tazobactam. A generalized regression-based interrupted time series model assessed how much the shortage changed the monthly use and costs of cefepime and of selected alternative broad-spectrum antibiotics (ceftazidime, imipenem-cilastatin, meropenem, piperacillin-tazobactam) in 15 Swiss acute care hospitals from January 2005 to December 2008. Resistance of P. aeruginosa was compared before and after the cefepime shortage. There was a statistically significant increase in the consumption of piperacillin-tazobactam in hospitals with definitive interruption of cefepime supply and of meropenem in hospitals with transient interruption of cefepime supply. Consumption of each alternative antibiotic tended to increase during the cefepime shortage and to decrease when the cefepime generic was released. These shifts were associated with significantly higher overall costs. There was no significant change in hospitals with uninterrupted cefepime supply. The alternative antibiotics for which an increase in consumption showed the strongest association with a progression of resistance were the carbapenems. The use of alternative antibiotics after cefepime withdrawal was associated with a significant increase in piperacillin-tazobactam and meropenem use and in overall costs and with a decrease in susceptibility of P. aeruginosa in hospitals. This warrants caution with regard to shortages and withdrawals of antibiotics.

Parallel divergent adaptation along replicated altitudinal gradients in Alpine trout

Background The European trout (Salmo trutta species complex) occurs across a very wide altitudinal range from lowland rivers to alpine streams. Historically, the major European river systems contained different, evolutionarily distinct trout lineages, and some of this genetic diversity has persisted in spite of extensive human-mediated translocations. We used AFLP-based genome scans to investigate the extent of potentially adaptive divergence among major drainages and along altitudinal gradients replicated in several rivers. Results The proportion of loci showing evidence of divergent selection was larger between drainages than along altitudinal transects within drainages. This suggests divergent selection is stronger between drainages, or adaptive divergence is constrained by gene flow among populations within drainages, although the latter could not be confirmed at a more local scale. Still, altitudinal divergence occurred and, at approximately 2% of the markers, parallel changes of the AFLP band frequencies with altitude were observed suggesting that altitude may well be an important source of divergent selection within rivers. Conclusions Our results indicate that adaptive genetic divergence is common both between major European river systems and along altitudinal gradients within drainages. Alpine trout appear to be a promising model system to investigate the relative roles of divergent selection and gene flow in promoting or preventing adaptation to climate gradients.

Enhanced Atlantic subpolar gyre variability through baroclinic threshold in a coarse resolution model

Direct observations, satellite measurements and paleo records reveal strong variability in the Atlantic subpolar gyre on various time scales. Here we show that variations of comparable amplitude can only be simulated in a coupled climate model in the proximity of a dynamical threshold. The threshold and the associated dynamic response is due to a positive feedback involving increased salt transport in the subpolar gyre and enhanced deep convection in its centre. A series of sensitivity experiments is performed with a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model coupled to a statistical-dynamical atmosphere model which in itself does not produce atmospheric variability. To simulate the impact of atmospheric variability, the model system is perturbed with freshwater forcing of varying, but small amplitude and multi-decadal to centennial periodicities and observational variations in wind stress. While both freshwater and wind-stress-forcing have a small direct effect on the strength of the subpolar gyre, the magnitude of the gyre's response is strongly increased in the vicinity of the threshold. Our results indicate that baroclinic self-amplification in the North Atlantic ocean can play an important role in presently observed SPG variability and thereby North Atlantic climate variability on multi-decadal scales.

Acute trichinellosis increases susceptibility to Giardia lamblia infection in the mouse model

The intestinal protozoan parasite Giardia lamblia causes diarrhoea in humans and animals. In the present study, we used the C57BL/6 inbred mouse model to assess the impact of a nematode (Trichinella spiralis) infection on the course of a G. lamblia (clone GS/M-83-H7) infection. Acute trichinellosis coincided with transient intestinal inflammation and generated an intestinal environment that strongly promoted growth of G. lamblia trophozoites although the local anti-Giardia immunoglobulin (Ig) A production was not affected. This increased G. lamblia infection intensity correlated with intestinal mast cell infiltration, mast cell degranulation, and total IgE production. Furthermore, a G. lamblia single-infection investigated in parallel also resulted in intestinal mast cell accumulation but severe infiltration was triggered in the absence of IgE. Recently, intestinal mast cells emerging during a G. lamblia infection were reported to be involved in those immunological mechanisms that control intestinal proliferation of the parasite in mice. This anti-giardial activity was assumed to be related to the capacity of mast cells to produce IL-6. However, this previous assumption was questioned by our present immunohistological findings indicating that murine intestinal mast cells, activated during a G. lamblia infection were IL-6-negative. In the present co-infection experiments, mast cells induced during acute trichinellosis were not able to control a concurrent G. lamblia infection. This observation makes it feasible that the T. spiralis infection created an immunological and physiological environment that superimposed the anti-giardial effect of mast cells and thus favoured intestinal growth of G. lamblia trophozoites in double-infected mice. Furthermore, our findings raise the possibility that intestinal inflammation e.g. as a consequence of a 'pre-existing' nematode infection is a factor which contributes to increased susceptibility of a host to a G. lamblia infection. The phenomenon of a 'pre-existing' nematode infection prior to a G. lamblia infection is a frequent constellation in endemic areas of giardiasis and may therefore have a direct impact on the epidemiological situation of the disease.

Structure-activity relationships from in vitro efficacies of the thiazolide series against the intracellular apicomplexan protozoan Neospora caninum

Nitazoxanide (2-acetolyloxy-N-(5-nitro 2-thiazolyl) benzamide; NTZ) represents the parent compound of a novel class of broad-spectrum anti-parasitic compounds named thiazolides. NTZ is active against a wide variety of intestinal and tissue-dwelling helminths, protozoa, enteric bacteria and a number of viruses infecting animals and humans. While potent, this poses a problem in practice, since this obvious non-selectivity can lead to undesired side effects in both humans and animals. In this study, we used real time PCR to determine the in vitro activities of 29 different thiazolides (NTZ-derivatives), which carry distinct modifications on both the thiazole- and the benzene moieties, against the tachyzoite stage of the intracellular protozoan Neospora caninum. The goal was to identify a highly active compound lacking the undesirable nitro group, which would have a more specific applicability, such as in food animals. By applying self-organizing molecular field analysis (SOMFA), these data were used to develop a predictive model for future drug design. SOMFA performs self-alignment of the molecules, and takes into account the steric and electrostatic properties, in order to determine 3D-quantitative structure activity relationship models. The best model was obtained by overlay of the thiazole moieties. Plotting of predicted versus experimentally determined activity produced an r2 value of 0.8052 and cross-validation using the "leave one out" methodology resulted in a q2 value of 0.7987. A master grid map showed that large steric groups at the R2 position, the nitrogen of the amide bond and position Y could greatly reduce activity, and the presence of large steric groups placed at positions X, R4 and surrounding the oxygen atom of the amide bond, may increase the activity of thiazolides against Neospora caninum tachyzoites. The model obtained here will be an important predictive tool for future development of this important class of drugs.

Sleep-wake habits and disorders in a series of 100 adult epilepsy patients--a prospective study

The aim of the study was to assess sleep-wake habits and disorders and excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) in an unselected outpatient epilepsy population. Sleep-wake habits and presence of sleep disorders were assessed by means of a clinical interview and a standard questionnaire in 100 consecutive patients with epilepsy and 90 controls. The questionnaire includes three validated instruments: the Epworth Sleepiness Scale (ESS) for EDS, SA-SDQ for sleep apnea (SA), and the Ullanlinna Narcolepsy Scale (UNS) for narcolepsy. Sleep complaints were reported by 30% of epilepsy patients compared to 10% of controls (p=0.001). The average total sleep time was similar in both groups. Insufficient sleep times were suspected in 24% of patients and 33% of controls. Sleep maintenance insomnia was more frequent in epilepsy patients (52% vs. 38%, p=0.06), whereas nightmares (6% vs. 16%, p=0.04) and bruxism (10% vs. 19%, p=0.07) were more frequent in controls. Sleep onset insomnia (34% vs. 28%), EDS (ESS >or=10, 19% vs. 14%), SA (9% vs. 3%), restless legs symptoms (RL-symptoms, 18% vs. 12%) and most parasomnias were similarly frequent in both groups. In a stepwise logistic regression model loud snoring and RL-symptoms were found to be the only independent predictors of EDS in epilepsy patients. In conclusion, sleep-wake habits and the frequency of most sleep disorders are similar in non-selected epilepsy patients as compared to controls. In epilepsy patients, EDS was predicted by a history of loud snoring and RL-symptoms but not by SA or epilepsy-related variables (including type of epilepsy, frequency of seizures, and number of antiepileptic drugs).

The well-being model: a new drug interaction model for positive and negative effects

BACKGROUND: Drugs are routinely combined in anesthesia and pain management to obtain an enhancement of the desired effects. However, a parallel enhancement of the undesired effects might take place as well, resulting in a limited therapeutic usefulness. Therefore, when addressing the question of optimal drug combinations, side effects must be taken into account. METHODS: By extension of a previously published interaction model, the authors propose a method to study drug interactions considering also their side effects. A general outcome parameter identified as patient's well-being is defined by superposition of positive and negative effects. Well-being response surfaces are computed and analyzed for varying drugs pharmacodynamics and interaction types. In particular, the existence of multiple maxima and of optimal drug combinations is investigated for the combination of two drugs. RESULTS: Both drug pharmacodynamics and interaction type affect the well-being surface and the deriving optimal combinations. The effect of the interaction parameters can be explained in terms of synergy and antagonism and remains unchanged for varying pharmacodynamics. For all simulations performed for the combination of two drugs, the presence of more than one maximum was never observed. CONCLUSIONS: The model is consistent with clinical knowledge and supports previously published experimental results on optimal drug combinations. This new framework improves understanding of the characteristics of drug combinations used in clinical practice and can be used in clinical research to identify optimal drug dosing.

A multivariate approach for processing magnetization effects in triggered event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging time series

Triggered event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging requires sparse intervals of temporally resolved functional data acquisitions, whose initiation corresponds to the occurrence of an event, typically an epileptic spike in the electroencephalographic trace. However, conventional fMRI time series are greatly affected by non-steady-state magnetization effects, which obscure initial blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) signals. Here, conventional echo-planar imaging and a post-processing solution based on principal component analysis were employed to remove the dominant eigenimages of the time series, to filter out the global signal changes induced by magnetization decay and to recover BOLD signals starting with the first functional volume. This approach was compared with a physical solution using radiofrequency preparation, which nullifies magnetization effects. As an application of the method, the detectability of the initial transient BOLD response in the auditory cortex, which is elicited by the onset of acoustic scanner noise, was used to demonstrate that post-processing-based removal of magnetization effects allows to detect brain activity patterns identical with those obtained using the radiofrequency preparation. Using the auditory responses as an ideal experimental model of triggered brain activity, our results suggest that reducing the initial magnetization effects by removing a few principal components from fMRI data may be potentially useful in the analysis of triggered event-related echo-planar time series. The implications of this study are discussed with special caution to remaining technical limitations and the additional neurophysiological issues of the triggered acquisition.

Predicting asthma control and exacerbations: chronic asthma as a complex dynamic model

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Predicting asthma episodes is notoriously difficult but has potentially significant consequences for the individual, as well as for healthcare services. The purpose of this review is to describe recent insights into the prediction of acute asthma episodes in relation to classical clinical, functional or inflammatory variables, as well as present a new concept for evaluating asthma as a dynamically regulated homeokinetic system. RECENT FINDINGS: Risk prediction for asthma episodes or relapse has been attempted using clinical scoring systems, considerations of environmental factors and lung function, as well as inflammatory and immunological markers in induced sputum or exhaled air, and these are summarized here. We have recently proposed that newer mathematical methods derived from statistical physics may be used to understand the complexity of asthma as a homeokinetic, dynamic system consisting of a network comprising multiple components, and also to assess the risk for future asthma episodes based on fluctuation analysis of long time series of lung function. SUMMARY: Apart from the classical analysis of risk factor and functional parameters, this new approach may be used to assess asthma control and treatment effects in the individual as well as in future research trials.