A sequential Cox approach for estimating the causal effect of treatment in the presence of time-dependent confounding applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

When estimating the effect of treatment on HIV using data from observational studies, standard methods may produce biased estimates due to the presence of time-dependent confounders. Such confounding can be present when a covariate, affected by past exposure, is both a predictor of the future exposure and the outcome. One example is the CD4 cell count, being a marker for disease progression for HIV patients, but also a marker for treatment initiation and influenced by treatment. Fitting a marginal structural model (MSM) using inverse probability weights is one way to give appropriate adjustment for this type of confounding. In this paper we study a simple and intuitive approach to estimate similar treatment effects, using observational data to mimic several randomized controlled trials. Each 'trial' is constructed based on individuals starting treatment in a certain time interval. An overall effect estimate for all such trials is found using composite likelihood inference. The method offers an alternative to the use of inverse probability of treatment weights, which is unstable in certain situations. The estimated parameter is not identical to the one of an MSM, it is conditioned on covariate values at the start of each mimicked trial. This allows the study of questions that are not that easily addressed fitting an MSM. The analysis can be performed as a stratified weighted Cox analysis on the joint data set of all the constructed trials, where each trial is one stratum. The model is applied to data from the Swiss HIV cohort study.

Sequential immunosuppressive therapy in progressive IgA nephropathy

BACKGROUNDS: Cyclophosphamide and high-dose steroids have been used as limited induction therapy in progressive IgA nephropathy (IgAN) to reduce the loss of renal function and proteinuria. We evaluated the effect of cyclophosphamide pulses (CyP) and mycophenolic acid (MPA) as sequential therapy on renal function in patients with progressive IgAN. METHODS: Twenty patients with progressive IgAN and advanced renal failure (median GFR 22 ml/min per 1.73 m2) and further disease activity (triangle downGFR -0.8 ml/min per month) after cyclophosphamide (CyP; n = 18) or steroid pulse therapy (n = 2) were treated with mycophenolate mofetil 1 g per day for a median of 27 months. RESULTS: The monthly loss of renal function was significantly reduced in linear regression analysis from -2.4 ml/min before CyP to -0.12 ml/min with CyP/MPA (p = 0.0009). Estimated renal survival time was significantly prolonged by a median of 65 months (p = 0.0014). Proteinuria decreased significantly from 1.7 to 0.4 g/l during MPA treatment (p = 0.015). In Cox regression analysis, only proteinuria >1.0 g/l was an independent risk factor for doubling of creatinine during CyP/MPA treatment (p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: A sequential therapy with CyP/MPA may arrest or slow down the loss of renal function and reduces proteinuria even in patients who passed the so called 'point of no return' with progressive IgAN.

Noisy kriging-based optimization methods: A unified implementation within the DiceOptim package

Kriging-based optimization relying on noisy evaluations of complex systems has recently motivated contributions from various research communities. Five strategies have been implemented in the DiceOptim package. The corresponding functions constitute a user-friendly tool for solving expensive noisy optimization problems in a sequential framework, while offering some flexibility for advanced users. Besides, the implementation is done in a unified environment, making this package a useful device for studying the relative performances of existing approaches depending on the experimental setup. An overview of the package structure and interface is provided, as well as a description of the strategies and some insight about the implementation challenges and the proposed solutions. The strategies are compared to some existing optimization packages on analytical test functions and show promising performances.

Necessity of epicardial ablation for ventricular tachycardia after sequential endocardial approach

Background Catheter ablation (CA) of ventricular tachycardia (VT) is an important treatment option in patients with structural heart disease (SHD) and implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). A subset of patients requires epicardial CA for VT. Objective The purpose of the study was to assess the significance of epicardial CA in these patients after a systematic sequential endocardial approach. Methods Between January 2009 and October 2012 CA for VT was analyzed. A sequential CA approach guided by earliest ventricular activation, pacemap, entrainment and stimulus to QRS-interval analysis was used. Acute CA success was assessed by programmed ventricular stimulation. ICD interrogation and 24 h-Holter ECG were used to evaluate long-term success. Results One hundred sixty VT ablation procedures in 126 consecutive patients (114 men; age 65 ± 12 years) were performed. Endocardial CA succeeded in 250 (94%) out of 265 treated VT. For 15 (6%) VT an additional epicardial CA was performed and succeeded in 9 of these 15 VT. Long-term FU (25 ± 18.2 month) showed freedom of VT in 104 pts (82%) after 1.2 ± 0.5 procedures, 11 (9%) suffered from repeated ICD shocks and 11 (9%) died due to worsening of heart failure. Conclusions Despite a heterogenic substrate for VT in SHD, endocardial CA alone results in high acute success rates. In this study additional epicardial CA following a sequential endocardial mapping and CA approach was performed in 6% of VT. Thus, due to possible complications epicardial CA should only be considered if endocardial CA fails.

The effectiveness and safety of rescue treatments in 108 patients with steroid-refractory ulcerative colitis with sequential rescue therapies in a subgroup of patients

BACKGROUND: Among patients with steroid-refractory ulcerative colitis (UC) in whom a first rescue therapy has failed, a second line salvage treatment can be considered to avoid colectomy. AIM: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of second or third line rescue therapy over a one-year period. METHODS: Response to single or sequential rescue treatments with infliximab (5mg/kg intravenously (iv) at week 0, 2, 6 and then every 8weeks), ciclosporin (iv 2mg/kg/daily and then oral 5mg/kg/daily) or tacrolimus (0.05mg/kg divided in 2 doses) in steroid-refractory moderate to severe UC patients from 7 Swiss and 1 Serbian tertiary IBD centers was retrospectively studied. The primary endpoint was the one year colectomy rate. RESULTS: 60% of patients responded to the first rescue therapy, 10% went to colectomy and 30% non-responders were switched to a 2(nd) line rescue treatment. 66% of patients responded to the 2(nd) line treatment whereas 34% failed, of which 15% went to colectomy and 19% received a 3(rd) line rescue treatment. Among those, 50% patients went to colectomy. Overall colectomy rate of the whole cohort was 18%. Steroid-free remission rate was 39%. The adverse event rates were 33%, 37.5% and 30% for the first, second and third line treatment respectively. CONCLUSION: Our data show that medical intervention even with 2(nd) and 3(rd) rescue treatments decreased colectomy frequency within one year of follow up. A longer follow-up will be necessary to investigate whether sequential therapy will only postpone colectomy and what percentage of patients will remain in long-term remission.

Reduction of cement leakage by sequential PMMA application in a vertebroplasty model

PURPOSE Leakage is the most common complication of percutaneous cement augmentation of the spine. The viscosity of the polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) cement is strongly correlated with the likelihood of cement leakage. We hypothesized that cement leakage can be reduced by sequential cement injection in a vertebroplasty model. METHODS A standardized vertebral body substitute model, consisting of aluminum oxide foams coated by acrylic cement with a preformed leakage path, simulating a ventral vein, was developed. Three injection techniques of 6 ml PMMA were assessed: injection in one single step (all-in-one), injection of 1 ml at the first and 5 ml at the second step with 1 min latency in-between (two-step), and sequential injection of 0.5 ml with 1-min latency between the sequences (sequential). Standard PMMA vertebroplasty cement was used; each injection type was tested on ten vertebral body substitute models with two possible leakage paths per model. Leakage was assessed by radiographs using a zonal graduation: intraspongious = no leakage and extracortical = leakage. RESULTS The leakage rate was significantly lower in the "sequential" technique (2/20 leakages) followed by "two-step" (15/20) and "all-in-one" (20/20) techniques (p < 0.001). The RR for a cement leakage was 10.0 times higher in the "all-in-one" compared to the "sequential" group (95 % confidence intervals 2.7-37.2; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS The sequential cement injection is a simple approach to minimize the risk for leakage. Taking advantage of the temperature gradient between body and room temperature, it is possible to increase the cement viscosity inside the vertebra while keeping it low in the syringe. Using sequential injection of small cement volumes, further leakage paths are blocked before further injection of the low-viscosity cement.