A sequential Cox approach for estimating the causal effect of treatment in the presence of time-dependent confounding applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

When estimating the effect of treatment on HIV using data from observational studies, standard methods may produce biased estimates due to the presence of time-dependent confounders. Such confounding can be present when a covariate, affected by past exposure, is both a predictor of the future exposure and the outcome. One example is the CD4 cell count, being a marker for disease progression for HIV patients, but also a marker for treatment initiation and influenced by treatment. Fitting a marginal structural model (MSM) using inverse probability weights is one way to give appropriate adjustment for this type of confounding. In this paper we study a simple and intuitive approach to estimate similar treatment effects, using observational data to mimic several randomized controlled trials. Each 'trial' is constructed based on individuals starting treatment in a certain time interval. An overall effect estimate for all such trials is found using composite likelihood inference. The method offers an alternative to the use of inverse probability of treatment weights, which is unstable in certain situations. The estimated parameter is not identical to the one of an MSM, it is conditioned on covariate values at the start of each mimicked trial. This allows the study of questions that are not that easily addressed fitting an MSM. The analysis can be performed as a stratified weighted Cox analysis on the joint data set of all the constructed trials, where each trial is one stratum. The model is applied to data from the Swiss HIV cohort study.

Sequential female assessment drives complex sexual selection on bower shape in a cichlid fish

In many animals, sexual selection on male traits results from female mate choice decisions made during a sequence of courtship behaviors. We use a bower-building cichlid fish, Nyassachromis cf. microcephalus, to show how applying standard selection analysis to data on sequential female assessment provides new insights into sexual selection by mate choice. We first show that the cumulative selection differentials confirm previous results suggesting female choice favors males holding large volcano-shaped sand bowers. The sequential assessment analysis reveals these cumulative differentials are the result of selection acting on different bower dimensions during the courtship sequence; females choose to follow males courting from tall bowers, but choose to engage in premating circling with males holding bowers with large diameter platforms. The approach we present extends standard selection analysis by partitioning the variances of increasingly accurate estimates of male reproductive fitness and is applicable to systems in which sequential female assessment drives sexual selection on male traits.

Prolonged amelioration of acute lung allograft rejection by sequential overexpression of human interleukin-10 and hepatocyte growth factor in rats

The effect of prolonged electroporation-mediated human interleukin-10 (hIL-10) overexpression 24 hours before transplantation, combined with sequential human hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) overexpression into skeletal muscle on day 5, on rat lung allograft rejection was evaluated. Left lung allotransplantation was performed from Brown-Norway to Fischer-F344 rats. Gene transfer into skeletal muscle was enhanced by electroporation. Three groups were studied: group I animals (n = 5) received 2.5 μg pCIK-hIL-10 (hIL-10/CMV [cytomegalovirus] early promoter enhancer) on day -1 and 80 μg pCIK-HGF (HGF/CMV early promoter enhancer) on day 5. Group II animals (n = 4) received 2.5 μg pCIK-hIL-10 and pUbC-hIL-10 (hIL-10/pUbC promoter) on day -1. Control group III animals (n = 4) were treated by sham electroporation on days -1 and 5. All animals received daily nontherapeutic intraperitoneal dose of cyclosporin A (2.5 mg/kg) and were sacrificed on day 15. Graft oxygenation and allograft rejection were evaluated. Significant differences were found between study groups in graft oxygenation (Pao(2)) (P = .0028; group I vs. groups II and III, P < .01 each). Pao(2) was low in group II (31 ± 1 mm Hg) and in group III controls (34 ± 10 mm Hg), without statistically significant difference between these 2 groups (P = .54). In contrast, in group I, Pao(2) of recipients sequentially transduced with IL-10 and HGF plasmids was much improved, with 112 ± 39 mm Hg (vs. groups II and III; P < .01 each), paralleled by reduced vascular and bronchial rejection (group I vs. groups II and III, P < .021 each). Sequential overexpression of anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10, followed by sequential and overlapping HGF overexpression on day 5, preserves lung function and reduces acute lung allograft rejection up to day 15 post transplant as compared to prolonged IL-10 overexpression alone.

Long-term tissue coverage of a biodegradable polylactide polymer-coated biolimus-eluting stent: comparative sequential assessment with optical coherence tomography until complete resorption of the polymer

Biolimus-eluting stents (BESs) with a biodegradable polymer in abluminal coating achieve more complete coverage at 9 months compared with sirolimus-eluting stents (SESs) with a durable polymer, as assessed by optical coherence tomography (OCT). Whether this advantage persists or augments after complete resorption of the polymer (>12 months) is unknown.

Vascular tissue reaction to acute malapposition in human coronary arteries: sequential assessment with optical coherence tomography

The vascular tissue reaction to acute incomplete stent apposition (ISA) is not well known. The aim of this study was to characterize the vascular response to acute ISA in vivo and to look for predictors of incomplete healing.

Ion fractionation in young sea ice from Kongsfjorden, Svalbard

The fractionation of major sea-water ions, or deviation in their relative concentrations from Standard Mean Ocean Water ratios, has been frequently observed in sea ice. It is generally thought to be associated with precipitation of solid salts at certain eutectic temperatures. The variability found in bulk sea-ice samples indicates that the fractionation of ions depends on the often unknown thermal history of sea ice, which affects the structure of pore networks and fate of solid salts within them. Here we investigate the distribution of ions in Arctic sea ice that is a few weeks old with a reconstructible thermal history. We separate the centrifugable (interconnected) and entrapped (likely disconnected) contributions to the ice salinity and determine their ion fractionation signatures. The results indicate that differential diffusion of ions, rather than eutectic precipitation of cryohydrates, has led to significant ion fractionation. The finding emphasizes the role of coupled diffusive–convective salt transport through complex pore networks in shaping the biogeochemistry of sea ice.

Molybdenum isotope fractionation in pelagic euxinia: Evidence from the modern Black and Baltic Seas

Here we present stable isotope data for vertical profiles of dissolved molybdenum of the modern euxinic water columns of the Black Sea and two deeps of the Baltic Sea. Dissolved molybdenum in all water samples is depleted in salinity-normalized concentration and enriched in the heavy isotope (δ98Mo values up to + 2.9‰) compared to previously published isotope data of sedimentary molybdenum from the same range of water depths. Furthermore, δ98Mo values of all water samples from the Black Sea and anoxic deeps of the Baltic Sea are heavier than open ocean water. The observed isotope fractionation between sediments and the anoxic water column of the Black Sea are in line with the model of thiomolybdates that scavenge to particles under reducing conditions. An extrapolation to a theoretical pure MoS42− solution indicates a fractionation constant between MoS42− and authigenic solid Mo of 0.5 ± 0.3‰. Measured waters with all thiomolybdates coexisting in various proportions show larger but non-linear fractionation. The best explanation for our field observations is Mo scavenging by the thiomolybdates, dominantly — but not exclusively — present in the form of MoS42−. The Mo isotopic compositions of samples from the sediments and anoxic water column of the Baltic Sea are in overall agreement with those of the Black Sea at intermediate depth and corresponding sulphide concentrations. The more dynamic changes of redox conditions in the Baltic deeps complicate the Black Sea-derived relationship between thiomolybdates and Mo isotopic composition. In particular, the occasional flushing/mixing, of the deep waters, affects the corresponding water column and sedimentary data. δ98Mo values of the upper oxic waters of both basins are higher than predicted by mixing models based on salinity variations. The results can be explained by non-conservative behaviour of Mo under suboxic to anoxic conditions in the shallow bottom parts of the basin, most pronounced on the NW shelf of the Black Sea.