A sequential Cox approach for estimating the causal effect of treatment in the presence of time-dependent confounding applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

When estimating the effect of treatment on HIV using data from observational studies, standard methods may produce biased estimates due to the presence of time-dependent confounders. Such confounding can be present when a covariate, affected by past exposure, is both a predictor of the future exposure and the outcome. One example is the CD4 cell count, being a marker for disease progression for HIV patients, but also a marker for treatment initiation and influenced by treatment. Fitting a marginal structural model (MSM) using inverse probability weights is one way to give appropriate adjustment for this type of confounding. In this paper we study a simple and intuitive approach to estimate similar treatment effects, using observational data to mimic several randomized controlled trials. Each 'trial' is constructed based on individuals starting treatment in a certain time interval. An overall effect estimate for all such trials is found using composite likelihood inference. The method offers an alternative to the use of inverse probability of treatment weights, which is unstable in certain situations. The estimated parameter is not identical to the one of an MSM, it is conditioned on covariate values at the start of each mimicked trial. This allows the study of questions that are not that easily addressed fitting an MSM. The analysis can be performed as a stratified weighted Cox analysis on the joint data set of all the constructed trials, where each trial is one stratum. The model is applied to data from the Swiss HIV cohort study.

Sequential female assessment drives complex sexual selection on bower shape in a cichlid fish

In many animals, sexual selection on male traits results from female mate choice decisions made during a sequence of courtship behaviors. We use a bower-building cichlid fish, Nyassachromis cf. microcephalus, to show how applying standard selection analysis to data on sequential female assessment provides new insights into sexual selection by mate choice. We first show that the cumulative selection differentials confirm previous results suggesting female choice favors males holding large volcano-shaped sand bowers. The sequential assessment analysis reveals these cumulative differentials are the result of selection acting on different bower dimensions during the courtship sequence; females choose to follow males courting from tall bowers, but choose to engage in premating circling with males holding bowers with large diameter platforms. The approach we present extends standard selection analysis by partitioning the variances of increasingly accurate estimates of male reproductive fitness and is applicable to systems in which sequential female assessment drives sexual selection on male traits.

Prolonged amelioration of acute lung allograft rejection by sequential overexpression of human interleukin-10 and hepatocyte growth factor in rats

The effect of prolonged electroporation-mediated human interleukin-10 (hIL-10) overexpression 24 hours before transplantation, combined with sequential human hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) overexpression into skeletal muscle on day 5, on rat lung allograft rejection was evaluated. Left lung allotransplantation was performed from Brown-Norway to Fischer-F344 rats. Gene transfer into skeletal muscle was enhanced by electroporation. Three groups were studied: group I animals (n = 5) received 2.5 μg pCIK-hIL-10 (hIL-10/CMV [cytomegalovirus] early promoter enhancer) on day -1 and 80 μg pCIK-HGF (HGF/CMV early promoter enhancer) on day 5. Group II animals (n = 4) received 2.5 μg pCIK-hIL-10 and pUbC-hIL-10 (hIL-10/pUbC promoter) on day -1. Control group III animals (n = 4) were treated by sham electroporation on days -1 and 5. All animals received daily nontherapeutic intraperitoneal dose of cyclosporin A (2.5 mg/kg) and were sacrificed on day 15. Graft oxygenation and allograft rejection were evaluated. Significant differences were found between study groups in graft oxygenation (Pao(2)) (P = .0028; group I vs. groups II and III, P < .01 each). Pao(2) was low in group II (31 ± 1 mm Hg) and in group III controls (34 ± 10 mm Hg), without statistically significant difference between these 2 groups (P = .54). In contrast, in group I, Pao(2) of recipients sequentially transduced with IL-10 and HGF plasmids was much improved, with 112 ± 39 mm Hg (vs. groups II and III; P < .01 each), paralleled by reduced vascular and bronchial rejection (group I vs. groups II and III, P < .021 each). Sequential overexpression of anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10, followed by sequential and overlapping HGF overexpression on day 5, preserves lung function and reduces acute lung allograft rejection up to day 15 post transplant as compared to prolonged IL-10 overexpression alone.

Long-term tissue coverage of a biodegradable polylactide polymer-coated biolimus-eluting stent: comparative sequential assessment with optical coherence tomography until complete resorption of the polymer

Biolimus-eluting stents (BESs) with a biodegradable polymer in abluminal coating achieve more complete coverage at 9 months compared with sirolimus-eluting stents (SESs) with a durable polymer, as assessed by optical coherence tomography (OCT). Whether this advantage persists or augments after complete resorption of the polymer (>12 months) is unknown.

Vascular tissue reaction to acute malapposition in human coronary arteries: sequential assessment with optical coherence tomography

The vascular tissue reaction to acute incomplete stent apposition (ISA) is not well known. The aim of this study was to characterize the vascular response to acute ISA in vivo and to look for predictors of incomplete healing.

Carbon sequestration in Himalaya's alpine meadows: Mitigating cropping encroachment on pastures in Northern Pakistan

Rangelands store about 30% of the world’s carbon and support over 120 million pastoralists globally. Adjusting the management of remote alpine pastures bears a substantial climate change mitigation potential that can provide livelihood support for marginalized pastoralists through carbon payment. Landless pastoralists in Northern Pakistan seek higher income by cropping potatoes and peas over alpine pastures. However, tilling steep slopes without terracing exposes soil to erosion. Moreover, yields decline rapidly requiring increasing fertilizer inputs. Under these conditions, carbon payment could be a feasible option to compensate pastoralists for renouncing hazardous cropping while favoring pastoral activities. The study quantifies and compares C on cropped and grazed land. The hypothesis was that cropping on alpine pastures reduces former carbon storage. The study area located in the Naran valley of the Pakistani Himalayas receives an annual average of 819 mm of rain and 764 mm of snow. Average temperatures remain below 0°C from November to March while frost may occur all year round. A total of 72 soil core samples were collected discriminating land use (cropping, pasture), aspect (North, South), elevation (low 3000, middle 3100, and high 3200 m a.s.l.), and soil depth (shallow 0-10, deep 10-30 cm). Thirty six biomass samples were collected over the same independent variables (except for soil depth) using a 10x10x20 cm steal box inserted in the ground for each sample. Aboveground biomass and coarse roots were separated from the soil aggregate and oven-dried. Soil organic carbon (SOC) and biomass carbon (BC) were estimated through a potassium dichromate oxidation treatment. The samples were collected during the second week of October 2010 at the end of the grazing and cropping season and before the first snowfall. The data was statistically analyzed by means of a one-way analysis of variance. Results show that all variables taken separately have a significant effect on mean SOC [%]: crop/pasture 1.33/1.6, North/South 1.61/1.32, low/middle/high 1.09/1.62/1.68, shallow/deep 1.4/1.53. However, for BC, only land use has a significant effect with more than twice the amount of carbon in pastures [g m-2]: crop/pasture 127/318. These preliminary findings suggest that preventing the conversion of pastures into cropping fields in the Naran valley avoids an average loss of 12.2 t C ha-1 or 44.8 t CO2eq ha-1 representing a foreseeable compensation of 672 € ha-1 for the Naran landless pastoralists who would renounce cropping. The ongoing study shall provide a complete picture for carbon payment integrating key aspects such as the rate of cropping encroachment over pastures per year, the methane leakage from the system due to livestock enteric fermentation, the expected cropping income vs. livestock income and the transaction costs of implementing the mitigation project, certifying it, and verifying carbon credits. A net present value over an infinite time horizon for the mitigation scenario shall be estimated on an iterative simulation to consider weather and price uncertainties. The study will also provide an estimate of the minimum price of carbon at which pastoralists would consider engaging in the mitigation activity.

Sequential immunosuppressive therapy in progressive IgA nephropathy

BACKGROUNDS: Cyclophosphamide and high-dose steroids have been used as limited induction therapy in progressive IgA nephropathy (IgAN) to reduce the loss of renal function and proteinuria. We evaluated the effect of cyclophosphamide pulses (CyP) and mycophenolic acid (MPA) as sequential therapy on renal function in patients with progressive IgAN. METHODS: Twenty patients with progressive IgAN and advanced renal failure (median GFR 22 ml/min per 1.73 m2) and further disease activity (triangle downGFR -0.8 ml/min per month) after cyclophosphamide (CyP; n = 18) or steroid pulse therapy (n = 2) were treated with mycophenolate mofetil 1 g per day for a median of 27 months. RESULTS: The monthly loss of renal function was significantly reduced in linear regression analysis from -2.4 ml/min before CyP to -0.12 ml/min with CyP/MPA (p = 0.0009). Estimated renal survival time was significantly prolonged by a median of 65 months (p = 0.0014). Proteinuria decreased significantly from 1.7 to 0.4 g/l during MPA treatment (p = 0.015). In Cox regression analysis, only proteinuria >1.0 g/l was an independent risk factor for doubling of creatinine during CyP/MPA treatment (p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: A sequential therapy with CyP/MPA may arrest or slow down the loss of renal function and reduces proteinuria even in patients who passed the so called 'point of no return' with progressive IgAN.

Endothelial cell activation leads to neutrophil transmigration as supported by the sequential roles of ICAM-2, JAM-A, and PECAM-1

Leukocyte transmigration is mediated by endothelial cell (EC) junctional molecules, but the associated mechanisms remain unclear. Here we investigate how intercellular adhesion molecule-2 (ICAM-2), junctional adhesion molecule-A (JAM-A), and platelet endothelial cell adhesion molecule (PECAM-1) mediate neutrophil transmigration in a stimulus-dependent manner (eg, as induced by interleukin-1beta [IL-1beta] but not tumor necrosis factor-alpha [TNF-alpha]), and demonstrate their ability to act in sequence. Using a cell-transfer technique, transmigration responses of wild-type and TNF-alpha p55/p75 receptor-deficient leukocytes (TNFR(-/-)) through mouse cremasteric venules were quantified by fluorescence intravital microscopy. Whereas wild-type leukocytes showed a normal transmigration response to TNF-alpha in ICAM-2(-/-), JAM-A(-/-), and PECAM-1(-/-) recipient mice, TNFR(-/-) leukocytes exhibited a reduced transmigration response. Hence, when the ability of TNF-alpha to directly stimulate neutrophils is blocked, TNF-alpha-induced neutrophil transmigration is rendered dependent on ICAM-2, JAM-A, and PECAM-1, suggesting that the stimulus-dependent role of these molecules is governed by the target cell being activated. Furthermore, analysis of the site of arrest of neutrophils in inflamed tissues from ICAM-2(-/-), JAM-A(-/-), and PECAM-1(-/-) mice demonstrated that these molecules act sequentially to mediate transmigration. Collectively, the findings provide novel insights into the mechanisms of action of key molecules implicated in leukocyte transmigration.