Resistive polymer versus forced-air warming: comparable heat transfer and core rewarming rates in volunteers

BACKGROUND: Mild perioperative hypothermia increases the risk of several severe complications. Perioperative patient warming to preserve normothermia has thus become routine, with forced-air warming being used most often. In previous studies, various resistive warming systems have shown mixed results in comparison with forced-air. Recently, a polymer-based resistive patient warming system has been developed. We compared the efficacy of a standard forced-air warming system with the resistive polymer system in volunteers. METHODS: Eight healthy volunteers participated, each on two separate study days. Unanesthetized volunteers were cooled to a core temperature (tympanic membrane) of 34 degrees C by application of forced-air at 10 degrees C and a circulating-water mattress at 4 degrees C. Meperidine and buspirone were administered to prevent shivering. In a randomly designated order, volunteers were then rewarmed (until their core temperatures reached 36 degrees C) with one of the following active warming systems: (1) forced-air warming (Bair Hugger warming cover #300, blower #750, Arizant, Eden Prairie, MN); or (2) polymer fiber resistive warming (HotDog whole body blanket, HotDog standard controller, Augustine Biomedical, Eden Prairie, MN). The alternate system was used on the second study day. Metabolic heat production, cutaneous heat loss, and core temperature were measured. RESULTS: Metabolic heat production and cutaneous heat loss were similar with each system. After a 30-min delay, core temperature increased nearly linearly by 0.98 (95% confidence interval 0.91-1.04) degrees C/h with forced-air and by 0.92 (0.85-1.00) degrees C/h with resistive heating (P = 0.4). CONCLUSIONS: Heating efficacy and core rewarming rates were similar with full-body forced-air and full-body resistive polymer heating in healthy volunteers.

Two Stable Equilibria of the Atlantic Subpolar Gyre

The cyclonic circulation of the Atlantic subpolar gyre is a key mechanism for North Atlantic climate variability on a wide range of time scales. It is generally accepted that it is driven by both cyclonic winds and buoyancy forcing, yet the individual importance and dynamical interactions of the two contributions remain unclear. The authors propose a simplified four-box model representing the convective basin of the Labrador Sea and its shallow and deep boundary current system, the western subpolar gyre. Convective heat loss drives a baroclinic flow of relatively light water around the dense center. Eddy salt flux from the boundary current to the center increases with a stronger circulation, favors the formation of dense waters, and thereby sustains a strong baroclinic flow, approximately 10%–25% of the total. In contrast, when the baroclinic flow is not active, surface waters may be too fresh to convect, and a buoyancy-driven circulation cannot develop. This situation corresponds to a second stable circulation mode. A hysteresis is found for variations in surface freshwater flux and the salinity of the near-surface boundary current. An analytical solution is presented and analyzed.

Understanding the performance of the FLake model over two African Great Lakes

The ability of the one-dimensional lake model FLake to represent the mixolimnion temperatures for tropical conditions was tested for three locations in East Africa: Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika's northern and southern basins. Meteorological observations from surrounding automatic weather stations were corrected and used to drive FLake, whereas a comprehensive set of water temperature profiles served to evaluate the model at each site. Careful forcing data correction and model configuration made it possible to reproduce the observed mixed layer seasonality at Lake Kivu and Lake Tanganyika (northern and southern basins), with correct representation of both the mixed layer depth and water temperatures. At Lake Kivu, mixolimnion temperatures predicted by FLake were found to be sensitive both to minimal variations in the external parameters and to small changes in the meteorological driving data, in particular wind velocity. In each case, small modifications may lead to a regime switch, from the correctly represented seasonal mixed layer deepening to either completely mixed or permanently stratified conditions from similar to 10 m downwards. In contrast, model temperatures were found to be robust close to the surface, with acceptable predictions of near-surface water temperatures even when the seasonal mixing regime is not reproduced. FLake can thus be a suitable tool to parameterise tropical lake water surface temperatures within atmospheric prediction models. Finally, FLake was used to attribute the seasonal mixing cycle at Lake Kivu to variations in the near-surface meteorological conditions. It was found that the annual mixing down to 60m during the main dry season is primarily due to enhanced lake evaporation and secondarily to the decreased incoming long wave radiation, both causing a significant heat loss from the lake surface and associated mixolimnion cooling.

Dependence of Eemian Greenland temperature reconstructions on the ice sheet topography

The influence of a reduced Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) on Greenland's surface climate during the Eemian interglacial is studied using a set of simulations with different GrIS realizations performed with a comprehensive climate model. We find a distinct impact of changes in the GrIS topography on Greenland's surface air temperatures (SAT) even when correcting for changes in surface elevation, which influences SAT through the lapse rate effect. The resulting lapse-rate-corrected SAT anomalies are thermodynamically driven by changes in the local surface energy balance rather than dynamically caused through anomalous advection of warm/cold air masses. The large-scale circulation is indeed very stable among all sensitivity experiments and the Northern Hemisphere (NH) flow pattern does not depend on Greenland's topography in the Eemian. In contrast, Greenland's surface energy balance is clearly influenced by changes in the GrIS topography and this impact is seasonally diverse. In winter, the variable reacting strongest to changes in the topography is the sensible heat flux (SHF). The reason is its dependence on surface winds, which themselves are controlled to a large extent by the shape of the GrIS. Hence, regions where a receding GrIS causes higher surface wind velocities also experience anomalous warming through SHF. Vice-versa, regions that become flat and ice-free are characterized by low wind speeds, low SHF, and anomalous low winter temperatures. In summer, we find surface warming induced by a decrease in surface albedo in deglaciated areas and regions which experience surface melting. The Eemian temperature records derived from Greenland proxies, thus, likely include a temperature signal arising from changes in the GrIS topography. For the Eemian ice found in the NEEM core, our model suggests that up to 3.1 °C of the annual mean Eemian warming can be attributed to these topography-related processes and hence is not necessarily linked to large-scale climate variations.

Retrospective analysis of a nonforecasted rain-on-snow flood in the Alps – a matter of model limitations or unpredictable nature?

A rain-on-snow flood occurred in the Bernese Alps, Switzerland, on 10 October 2011, and caused significant damage. As the flood peak was unpredicted by the flood forecast system, questions were raised concerning the causes and the predictability of the event. Here, we aimed to reconstruct the anatomy of this rain-on-snow flood in the Lötschen Valley (160 km2) by analyzing meteorological data from the synoptic to the local scale and by reproducing the flood peak with the hydrological model WaSiM-ETH (Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model). This in order to gain process understanding and to evaluate the predictability. The atmospheric drivers of this rain-on-snow flood were (i) sustained snowfall followed by (ii) the passage of an atmospheric river bringing warm and moist air towards the Alps. As a result, intensive rainfall (average of 100 mm day-1) was accompanied by a temperature increase that shifted the 0° line from 1500 to 3200 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) in 24 h with a maximum increase of 9 K in 9 h. The south-facing slope of the valley received significantly more precipitation than the north-facing slope, leading to flooding only in tributaries along the south-facing slope. We hypothesized that the reason for this very local rainfall distribution was a cavity circulation combined with a seeder-feeder-cloud system enhancing local rainfall and snowmelt along the south-facing slope. By applying and considerably recalibrating the standard hydrological model setup, we proved that both latent and sensible heat fluxes were needed to reconstruct the snow cover dynamic, and that locally high-precipitation sums (160 mm in 12 h) were required to produce the estimated flood peak. However, to reproduce the rapid runoff responses during the event, we conceptually represent likely lateral flow dynamics within the snow cover causing the model to react "oversensitively" to meltwater. Driving the optimized model with COSMO (Consortium for Small-scale Modeling)-2 forecast data, we still failed to simulate the flood because COSMO-2 forecast data underestimated both the local precipitation peak and the temperature increase. Thus we conclude that this rain-on-snow flood was, in general, predictable, but requires a special hydrological model setup and extensive and locally precise meteorological input data. Although, this data quality may not be achieved with forecast data, an additional model with a specific rain-on-snow configuration can provide useful information when rain-on-snow events are likely to occur.

HIV-1 p24 may persist during long-term highly active antiretroviral therapy, increases little during short treatment breaks, and its rebound after treatment stop correlates with CD4(+) T cell loss

The dynamics of HIV-1 RNA during structured treatment interruptions (STIs) are well established, but little is known about viral proteins like p24. We studied 65 participants of an STI trial. Before the trial, continuous highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) had suppressed their viral load to <50 copies/mL during 6 months. They then interrupted HAART during weeks 1 through 2, 11 through 12, 21 through 22, 31 through 32, and 41 through 52. The p24 was measured by boosted enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay of plasma pretreated by efficient virus disruption and heat denaturation. At time point 0, p24 was measurable in 22 patients (34%), who had maintained a viral load <50 copies/mL for 25.4 months (median, range: 6.2-38.9 months) under HAART. Viral rebounds during 2-week STIs led to a mean p24 increase of only 0.08 to 0.19 log10 (ie, 20%-60%). Pre-HAART viral load and p24 at time 0 independently predicted p24 rebounds during the 4 2-week STIs. The p24 at time 0 and HIV-1 RNA rebound during weeks 41 through 52 independently determined the concomitant p24 rebound. An increase of p24 but not viral load during the first 8 weeks of the long STI correlated significantly with concomitant CD4(+) T cell loss. Persisting p24 despite successful HAART may reflect virus replication in reservoirs not represented by plasma viral load and has implications for the concept of therapeutic vaccination.