A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability of buildings

The design of efficient hydrological risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the impact forces of the hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow estimating the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario based on spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk classified into defined typological categories. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage-generating mechanisms for a well-defined element at risk with its peculiar geometry and structural characteristics remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme encompasses distinct analytical steps: modelling (a) the process intensity, (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed and (c) the physical response of the building envelope. Furthermore, these results provide the input data for the subsequent damage evaluation and economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

Individual group efficacy beliefs and performance motivation: A mediational approach

Introduction: According to the theoretical model of Cranach, Ochsenbein, and Valach (1986) understanding group actions needs consideration of aspects at both the group level and the level of individual members. For example individual action units constituting group actions are motivated at the individual level while potentially being affected by characteristics of the group. Theoretically, group efficacy beliefs could be a part of this motivational process as they are an individual’s cognitive contents about group-level abilities to perform well in a specific task. Positive relations between group level efficacy-beliefs and group performance have been reported and Bandura and Locke (2003) argue that this relationship is being mediated by motivational processes and goal setting. The aims of this study were a) to examine the effects of group characteristics on individual performance motivation and b) to test if those are mediated by individual group efficacy beliefs. Methods: Forty-seven students (M=22.83 years, SD=2.83, 34% women) of the university of Berne participated in this scenario based experiment. Data were collected on two collection points. Subjects were provided information about fictive team members with whom they had to perform a group triathlon. Three values (low, medium, high) of the other team members’ abilities to perform in their parts of the triathlon (swimming and biking respectively) were combined in a 3x3 full factorial design (Anderson, 1982) yielding nine groups. Subjects were asked how confident they were that the teams would perform well in the task (individual group efficacy beliefs), and to provide information about their motivation to perform at their best in the respective group contexts (performance motivation). Multilevel modeling (Mplus) was used to estimate the effects of the factors swim and bike, and the context-varying covariate individual group efficacy beliefs on performance motivation. Further analyses were undertaken to test if the effects of group contexts on performance motivation are mediated by individual group efficacy beliefs. Results: Significant effects were reported for both the group characteristics (βswim = 7.86; βbike = 8.57; both p < .001) and the individual group efficacy beliefs (βigeb; .40, p < .001) on performance motivation. The subsequent mediation model indicated that the effects of group characteristics on performance motivation were partly mediated by the individual group efficacy beliefs of the subjects with significant mediation effects for both factors swim and bike. Discussion/Conclusion: The results of the study provide further support for the motivational character of efficacy beliefs and point out a mechanism by which team characteristics influence performance relevant factors at the level of individual team members. The study indicates that high team abilities lead to augmented performance motivation, adding a psychological advantage to teams already high on task relevant abilities. Future investigations will be aiming at possibilities to keep individual performance motivation high in groups with low task relevant abilities. One possibility could be the formulation of individual task goals. References: Anderson, N. H. (1982). Methods of information integration theory. New York: Academic Press. Bandura, A. & Locke, E. A. (2003). Negative self-efficacy and goal effects revisited. Journal of Applied Psychology, 88, 87-99. Cranach, M. von, Ochsenbein, G. & Valach, L. (1986). The group as a self-active system: Outline of a theory of group action. European Journal of Social Psychology, 16, 193-229.

Entwicklung und Validierung einer Skala der Bereitschaft zu verzeihen (SBV)

Verzeihen dient der Bewältigung von Kränkungen und zwischenmenschlichen Konflikten. Es werden Definitionen und Operationalisierungen aus dem englischen Sprachraum vorgestellt. Die Entwicklung eines deutschsprachigen szenarienbasierten Instruments zur Erhebung der Bereitschaft zu verzeihen wird beschrieben. Es wird eine Differenzierung des Konstruktes in zwei Komponenten vorgeschlagen: (a) die Bereitschaft, anderen Menschen zu verzeihen, wenn diese ihre Tat bedauern, (b) die Bereitschaft, anderen Menschen zu verzeihen, wenn diese ihre Tat nicht bedauern. Die Messeigenschaften der neu entwickelten Skala wurden in fünf Studien an insgesamt 1824 Probanden untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass das Instrument gute psychometrische Eigenschaften besitzt. Die theoretische Differenzierung des Konstrukts wird empirisch bestätigt. Hinweise auf die Konstruktvalidität der Skala ergeben sich aus Zusammenhängen mit theoretisch einschlägigen Referenzkonstrukten: der habituellen Ärgerneigung, der Wahrnehmung und Klarheit über eigene und fremde Gefühle, positiver und negativer Affektivität, den fünf Persönlichkeitsfaktoren und sozialer Erwünschtheit. Für die Konstruktvalidität der Skala sprechen ferner konvergente Korrelationen mit anderen Maßen der Bereitschaft zu verzeihen.

Situational adaptiveness of control orientation mediates relation between fixed-world view and youth well-being in three cultures

When proposing primary control (changing the world to fit self)/secondary control (changing self to fit the world) theory, Weisz et al. (1984) argued for the importance of the “serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can” (p. 967), and the wisdom to choose the right control strategy that fits the context. Although the dual processes of control theory generated hundreds of empirical studies, most of them focused on the dichotomy of PC and SC, with none of these tapped into the critical concept: individuals’ ability to know when to use what. This project addressed this issue by using scenario questions to study the impact of situationally adaptive control strategies on youth well-being. To understand the antecedents of youths’ preference for PC or SC, we also connected PCSC theory with Dweck’s implicit theory about the changeability of the world. We hypothesized that youths’ belief about the world’s changeability impacts how difficult it was for them to choose situationally adaptive control orientation, which then impacts their well-being. This study included adolescents and emerging adults between the ages of 18 and 28 years (Mean = 20.87 years) from the US (n = 98), China (n = 100), and Switzerland (n = 103). Participants answered a questionnaire including a measure of implicit theories about the fixedness of the external world, a scenario-based measure of control orientation, and several measures of well-being. Preliminary analyses of the scenario-based control orientation measures showed striking cross-cultural similarity of preferred control responses: while for three of the six scenarios primary control was the predominately chosen control response in all cultures, for the other three scenarios secondary control was the predominately chosen response. This suggested that youths across cultures are aware that some situations call for primary control, while others demand secondary control. We considered the control strategy winning the majority of the votes to be the strategy that is situationally adaptive. The results of a multi-group structural equation mediation model with the extent of belief in a fixed world as independent variable, the difficulties of carrying out the respective adaptive versus non-adaptive control responses as two mediating variables and the latent well-being variable as dependent variable showed a cross-culturally similar pattern of effects: a belief in a fixed world was significantly related to higher difficulties in carrying out the normative as well as the non-normative control response, but only the difficulty of carrying out the normative control response (be it primary control in situations where primary control is normative or secondary control in situations where secondary control is normative) was significantly related to a lower reported well-being (while the difficulty of carrying out the non-normative response was unrelated to well-being). While previous research focused on cross-cultural differences on the choice of PC or SC, this study shed light on the universal necessity of applying the right kind of control to fit the situation.

Geographic information system-based decision support for soil conservation planning in Tajikistan

Soil erosion on sloping agricultural land poses a serious problem for the environment, as well as for production. In areas with highly erodible soils, such as those in loess zones, application of soil and water conservation measures is crucial to sustain agricultural yields and to prevent or reduce land degradation. The present study, carried out in Faizabad, Tajikistan, was designed to evaluate the potential of local conservation measures on cropland using a spatial modelling approach to provide decision-making support for the planning of spatially explicit sustainable land use. A sampling design to support comparative analysis between well-conserved units and other field units was established in order to estimate factors that determine water erosion, according to the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Such factor-based approaches allow ready application using a geographic information system (GIS) and facilitate straightforward scenario modelling in areas with limited data resources. The study showed first that assessment of erosion and conservation in an area with inhomogeneous vegetation cover requires the integration of plot-based cover. Plot-based vegetation cover can be effectively derived from high-resolution satellite imagery, providing a useful basis for plot-wise conservation planning. Furthermore, thorough field assessments showed that 25.7% of current total cropland is covered by conservation measures (terracing, agroforestry and perennial herbaceous fodder). Assessment of the effectiveness of these local measures, combined with the RUSLE calculations, revealed that current average soil loss could be reduced through low-cost measures such as contouring (by 11%), fodder plants (by 16%), and drainage ditches (by 53%). More expensive measures such as terracing and agroforestry can reduce erosion by as much as 63% (for agroforestry) and 93% (for agroforestry combined with terracing). Indeed, scenario runs for different levels of tolerable erosion rates showed that more cost-intensive and technologically advanced measures would lead to greater reduction of soil loss. However, given economic conditions in Tajikistan, it seems advisable to support the spread of low-cost and labourextensive measures.

Using scenario tree modelling for targeted herd sampling to substantiate freedom from disease

BACKGROUND: In order to optimise the cost-effectiveness of active surveillance to substantiate freedom from disease, a new approach using targeted sampling of farms was developed and applied on the example of infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR) and enzootic bovine leucosis (EBL) in Switzerland. Relevant risk factors (RF) for the introduction of IBR and EBL into Swiss cattle farms were identified and their relative risks defined based on literature review and expert opinions. A quantitative model based on the scenario tree method was subsequently used to calculate the required sample size of a targeted sampling approach (TS) for a given sensitivity. We compared the sample size with that of a stratified random sample (sRS) with regard to efficiency. RESULTS: The required sample sizes to substantiate disease freedom were 1,241 farms for IBR and 1,750 farms for EBL to detect 0.2% herd prevalence with 99% sensitivity. Using conventional sRS, the required sample sizes were 2,259 farms for IBR and 2,243 for EBL. Considering the additional administrative expenses required for the planning of TS, the risk-based approach was still more cost-effective than a sRS (40% reduction on the full survey costs for IBR and 8% for EBL) due to the considerable reduction in sample size. CONCLUSIONS: As the model depends on RF selected through literature review and was parameterised with values estimated by experts, it is subject to some degree of uncertainty. Nevertheless, this approach provides the veterinary authorities with a promising tool for future cost-effective sampling designs.

MARVIN: a medical research application framework based on open source software

This paper describes the open source framework MARVIN for rapid application development in the field of biomedical and clinical research. MARVIN applications consist of modules that can be plugged together in order to provide the functionality required for a specific experimental scenario. Application modules work on a common patient database that is used to store and organize medical data as well as derived data. MARVIN provides a flexible input/output system with support for many file formats including DICOM, various 2D image formats and surface mesh data. Furthermore, it implements an advanced visualization system and interfaces to a wide range of 3D tracking hardware. Since it uses only highly portable libraries, MARVIN applications run on Unix/Linux, Mac OS X and Microsoft Windows.

SLA-driven predictive orchestration for distributed cloud-based mobile services

We describe a system for performing SLA-driven management and orchestration of distributed infrastructures composed of services supporting mobile computing use cases. In particular, we focus on a Follow-Me Cloud scenario in which we consider mobile users accessing cloud-enable services. We combine a SLA-driven approach to infrastructure optimization, with forecast-based performance degradation preventive actions and pattern detection for supporting mobile cloud infrastructure management. We present our system's information model and architecture including the algorithmic support and the proposed scenarios for system evaluation.

Agent-based Content Retrieval for Opportunistic Content-Centric Networks

In this paper, we describe agent-based content retrieval for opportunistic networks, where requesters can delegate content retrieval to agents, which retrieve the content on their behalf. The approach has been implemented in CCNx, the open source CCN framework, and evaluated on Android smart phones. Evaluations have shown that the overhead of agent delegation is only noticeable for very small content. For content larger than 4MB, agent-based content retrieval can even result in a throughput increase of 20% compared to standard CCN download applications. The requester asks every probe interval for agents that have retrieved the desired content. Evaluations have shown that a probe interval of 30s delivers the best overall performance in our scenario because the number of transmitted notification messages can be decreased by up to 80% without significantly increasing the download time.

Simulation of SLA-based VM-scaling algorithms for cloud-distributed applications

Cloud Computing has evolved to become an enabler for delivering access to large scale distributed applications running on managed network-connected computing systems. This makes possible hosting Distributed Enterprise Information Systems (dEISs) in cloud environments, while enforcing strict performance and quality of service requirements, defined using Service Level Agreements (SLAs). {SLAs} define the performance boundaries of distributed applications, and are enforced by a cloud management system (CMS) dynamically allocating the available computing resources to the cloud services. We present two novel VM-scaling algorithms focused on dEIS systems, which optimally detect most appropriate scaling conditions using performance-models of distributed applications derived from constant-workload benchmarks, together with SLA-specified performance constraints. We simulate the VM-scaling algorithms in a cloud simulator and compare against trace-based performance models of dEISs. We compare a total of three SLA-based VM-scaling algorithms (one using prediction mechanisms) based on a real-world application scenario involving a large variable number of users. Our results show that it is beneficial to use autoregressive predictive SLA-driven scaling algorithms in cloud management systems for guaranteeing performance invariants of distributed cloud applications, as opposed to using only reactive SLA-based VM-scaling algorithms.

Computer Vision-Based Carbohydrate Estimation for Type 1 Diabetic Patients Using Smartphones

Background: Individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D) have to count the carbohydrates (CHOs) of their meal to estimate the prandial insulin dose needed to compensate for the meal’s effect on blood glucose levels. CHO counting is very challenging but also crucial, since an error of 20 grams can substantially impair postprandial control. Method: The GoCARB system is a smartphone application designed to support T1D patients with CHO counting of nonpacked foods. In a typical scenario, the user places a reference card next to the dish and acquires 2 images with his/her smartphone. From these images, the plate is detected and the different food items on the plate are automatically segmented and recognized, while their 3D shape is reconstructed. Finally, the food volumes are calculated and the CHO content is estimated by combining the previous results and using the USDA nutritional database. Results: To evaluate the proposed system, a set of 24 multi-food dishes was used. For each dish, 3 pairs of images were taken and for each pair, the system was applied 4 times. The mean absolute percentage error in CHO estimation was 10 ± 12%, which led to a mean absolute error of 6 ± 8 CHO grams for normal-sized dishes. Conclusion: The laboratory experiments demonstrated the feasibility of the GoCARB prototype system since the error was below the initial goal of 20 grams. However, further improvements and evaluation are needed prior launching a system able to meet the inter- and intracultural eating habits.

A clinically applicable laser-based image-guided system for laparoscopic liver procedures

PURPOSE Laser range scanners (LRS) allow performing a surface scan without physical contact with the organ, yielding higher registration accuracy for image-guided surgery (IGS) systems. However, the use of LRS-based registration in laparoscopic liver surgery is still limited because current solutions are composed of expensive and bulky equipment which can hardly be integrated in a surgical scenario. METHODS In this work, we present a novel LRS-based IGS system for laparoscopic liver procedures. A triangulation process is formulated to compute the 3D coordinates of laser points by using the existing IGS system tracking devices. This allows the use of a compact and cost-effective LRS and therefore facilitates the integration into the laparoscopic setup. The 3D laser points are then reconstructed into a surface to register to the preoperative liver model using a multi-level registration process. RESULTS Experimental results show that the proposed system provides submillimeter scanning precision and accuracy comparable to those reported in the literature. Further quantitative analysis shows that the proposed system is able to achieve a patient-to-image registration accuracy, described as target registration error, of [Formula: see text]. CONCLUSIONS We believe that the presented approach will lead to a faster integration of LRS-based registration techniques in the surgical environment. Further studies will focus on optimizing scanning time and on the respiratory motion compensation.

Carbohydrate Estimation by a Mobile Phone-Based System Versus Self-Estimations of Individuals With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus: A Comparative Study

Background: Diabetes mellitus is spreading throughout the world and diabetic individuals have been shown to often assess their food intake inaccurately; therefore, it is a matter of urgency to develop automated diet assessment tools. The recent availability of mobile phones with enhanced capabilities, together with the advances in computer vision, have permitted the development of image analysis apps for the automated assessment of meals. GoCARB is a mobile phone-based system designed to support individuals with type 1 diabetes during daily carbohydrate estimation. In a typical scenario, the user places a reference card next to the dish and acquires two images using a mobile phone. A series of computer vision modules detect the plate and automatically segment and recognize the different food items, while their 3D shape is reconstructed. Finally, the carbohydrate content is calculated by combining the volume of each food item with the nutritional information provided by the USDA Nutrient Database for Standard Reference. Objective: The main objective of this study is to assess the accuracy of the GoCARB prototype when used by individuals with type 1 diabetes and to compare it to their own performance in carbohydrate counting. In addition, the user experience and usability of the system is evaluated by questionnaires. Methods: The study was conducted at the Bern University Hospital, “Inselspital” (Bern, Switzerland) and involved 19 adult volunteers with type 1 diabetes, each participating once. Each study day, a total of six meals of broad diversity were taken from the hospital’s restaurant and presented to the participants. The food items were weighed on a standard balance and the true amount of carbohydrate was calculated from the USDA nutrient database. Participants were asked to count the carbohydrate content of each meal independently and then by using GoCARB. At the end of each session, a questionnaire was completed to assess the user’s experience with GoCARB. Results: The mean absolute error was 27.89 (SD 38.20) grams of carbohydrate for the estimation of participants, whereas the corresponding value for the GoCARB system was 12.28 (SD 9.56) grams of carbohydrate, which was a significantly better performance ( P=.001). In 75.4% (86/114) of the meals, the GoCARB automatic segmentation was successful and 85.1% (291/342) of individual food items were successfully recognized. Most participants found GoCARB easy to use. Conclusions: This study indicates that the system is able to estimate, on average, the carbohydrate content of meals with higher accuracy than individuals with type 1 diabetes can. The participants thought the app was useful and easy to use. GoCARB seems to be a well-accepted supportive mHealth tool for the assessment of served-on-a-plate meals.