Solar wind dynamic pressure effect on planetary wave propagation and synoptic-scale Rossby wave breaking

We provide statistical evidence of the effect of the solar wind dynamic pressure (Psw) on the northern winter and spring circulations. We find that the vertical structure of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), the zonal mean circulation, and Eliassen-Palm (EP)-flux anomalies show a dynamically consistent pattern of downward propagation over a period of ~45 days in response to positive Psw anomalies. When the solar irradiance is high, the signature of Psw is marked by a positive NAM anomaly descending from the stratosphere to the surface during winter. When the solar irradiance is low, the Psw signal has the opposite sign, occurs in spring, and is confined to the stratosphere. The negative Psw signal in the NAM under low solar irradiance conditions is primarily governed by enhanced vertical EP-flux divergence and a warmer polar region. The winter Psw signal under high solar irradiance conditions is associated with positive anomalies of the horizontal EP-flux divergence at 55°N–75°N and negative anomalies at 25°N–45°N, which corresponds to the positive NAM anomaly. The EP-flux divergence anomalies occur ~15 days ahead of the mean-flow changes. A significant equatorward shift of synoptic-scale Rossby wave breaking (RWB) near the tropopause is detected during January–March, corresponding to increased anticyclonic RWB and a decrease in cyclonic RWB. We suggest that the barotropic instability associated with asymmetric ozone in the upper stratosphere and the baroclinic instability associated with the polar vortex in the middle and lower stratosphere play a critical role for the winter signal and its downward propagation.

Coupling biomechanics to a cellular level model: An approach to patient-specific image driven multi-scale and multi-physics tumor simulation

Modeling of tumor growth has been performed according to various approaches addressing different biocomplexity levels and spatiotemporal scales. Mathematical treatments range from partial differential equation based diffusion models to rule-based cellular level simulators, aiming at both improving our quantitative understanding of the underlying biological processes and, in the mid- and long term, constructing reliable multi-scale predictive platforms to support patient-individualized treatment planning and optimization. The aim of this paper is to establish a multi-scale and multi-physics approach to tumor modeling taking into account both the cellular and the macroscopic mechanical level. Therefore, an already developed biomodel of clinical tumor growth and response to treatment is self-consistently coupled with a biomechanical model. Results are presented for the free growth case of the imageable component of an initially point-like glioblastoma multiforme tumor. The composite model leads to significant tumor shape corrections that are achieved through the utilization of environmental pressure information and the application of biomechanical principles. Using the ratio of smallest to largest moment of inertia of the tumor material to quantify the effect of our coupled approach, we have found a tumor shape correction of 20\% by coupling biomechanics to the cellular simulator as compared to a cellular simulation without preferred growth directions. We conclude that the integration of the two models provides additional morphological insight into realistic tumor growth behavior. Therefore, it might be used for the development of an advanced oncosimulator focusing on tumor types for which morphology plays an important role in surgical and/or radio-therapeutic treatment planning.

Effect of intravenous tropisetron on modulation of pain and central hypersensitivity in chronic low back pain patients

The activation of 5-hydroxytryptamine-3 (5-HT-3) receptors in spinal cord can enhance intrinsic spinal mechanisms of central hypersensitivity, possibly leading to exaggerated pain responses. Clinical studies suggest that 5-HT-3 receptor antagonists may have an analgesic effect. This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover study tested the hypothesis that the 5-HT-3 receptor antagonist tropisetron attenuates pain and central hypersensitivity in patients with chronic low back pain. Thirty patients with chronic low back pain, 15 of whom were women (aged 53 ± 14 years) and 15 men (aged 48 ± 14 years), were studied. A single intravenous injection of 0.9% saline solution, tropisetron 2mg, and tropisetron 5mg was administrated in 3 different sessions, in a double-blind crossover manner. The main outcome was the visual analogue scale (VAS) score of spontaneous low back pain before, and 15, 30, 60, and 90 minutes after drug administration. Secondary outcomes were nociceptive withdrawal reflexes to single and repeated electrical stimulation, area of reflex receptive fields, pressure pain detection and tolerance thresholds, conditioned pain modulation, and area of clinical pain. The data were analyzed by analysis of variance and panel multiple regressions. All 3 treatments reduced VAS scores. However, there was no statistically significant difference between tropisetron and placebo in VAS scores. Compared to placebo, tropisetron produced a statistically significant increase in pain threshold after single electrical stimulation, but no difference in all other secondary outcomes was found. A single-dose intravenous administration of tropisetron in patients with chronic low back pain had no significant specific effect on intensity of pain and most parameters of central hypersensitivity.

Proposal on How To Conduct a Biopharmaceutical Process Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) as a Risk Assessment Tool

With the publication of the quality guideline ICH Q9 "Quality Risk Management" by the International Conference on Harmonization, risk management has already become a standard requirement during the life cycle of a pharmaceutical product. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a powerful risk analysis tool that has been used for decades in mechanical and electrical industries. However, the adaptation of the FMEA methodology to biopharmaceutical processes brings about some difficulties. The proposal presented here is intended to serve as a brief but nevertheless comprehensive and detailed guideline on how to conduct a biopharmaceutical process FMEA. It includes a detailed 1-to-10-scale FMEA rating table for occurrence, severity, and detectability of failures that has been especially designed for typical biopharmaceutical processes. The application for such a biopharmaceutical process FMEA is widespread. It can be useful whenever a biopharmaceutical manufacturing process is developed or scaled-up, or when it is transferred to a different manufacturing site. It may also be conducted during substantial optimization of an existing process or the development of a second-generation process. According to their resulting risk ratings, process parameters can be ranked for importance and important variables for process development, characterization, or validation can be identified. LAY ABSTRACT: Health authorities around the world ask pharmaceutical companies to manage risk during development and manufacturing of pharmaceuticals. The so-called failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is an established risk analysis tool that has been used for decades in mechanical and electrical industries. However, the adaptation of the FMEA methodology to pharmaceutical processes that use modern biotechnology (biopharmaceutical processes) brings about some difficulties, because those biopharmaceutical processes differ from processes in mechanical and electrical industries. The proposal presented here explains how a biopharmaceutical process FMEA can be conducted. It includes a detailed 1-to-10-scale FMEA rating table for occurrence, severity, and detectability of failures that has been especially designed for typical biopharmaceutical processes. With the help of this guideline, different details of the manufacturing process can be ranked according to their potential risks, and this can help pharmaceutical companies to identify aspects with high potential risks and to react accordingly to improve the safety of medicines.

Clinical application and reliability of a post abdominal surgery pain assessment scale (PASPAS) in horses

The aim of this study was to refine a multi-dimensional scale based on physiological and behavioural parameters, known as the post abdominal surgery pain assessment scale (PASPAS), to quantify pain after laparotomy in horses. After a short introduction, eight observers used the scale to assess eight horses at multiple time points after laparotomy. In addition, a single observer was used to test the correlation of each parameter with the total pain index in 34 patients, and the effect of general anaesthesia on PASPAS was investigated in a control group of eight horses. Inter-observer variability was low (coefficient of variation 0.3), which indicated good reliability of PASPAS. The correlation of individual parameters with the total pain index differed between parameters. PASPAS, which was not influenced by general anaesthesia, was a useful tool to evaluate pain in horses after abdominal surgery and may also be useful to investigate analgesic protocols or for teaching purposes.

Placebo effect characteristics observed in a single, international, longitudinal study in Huntington's disease

BACKGROUND Classically, clinical trials are based on the placebo-control design. Our aim was to analyze the placebo effect in Huntington's disease. METHODS Placebo data were obtained from an international, longitudinal, placebo-controlled trial for Huntington's disease (European Huntington's Disease Initiative Study Group). One-hundred and eighty patients were evaluated using the Unified Huntington Disease Rating Scale over 36 months. A placebo effect was defined as an improvement of at least 50% over baseline scores in the Unified Huntington Disease Rating Scale, and clinically relevant when at least 10% of the population met it. RESULTS Only behavior showed a significant placebo effect, and the proportion of the patients with placebo effect ranged from 16% (first visit) to 41% (last visit). Nondepressed patients with better functional status were most likely to be placebo-responders over time. CONCLUSIONS In Huntington's disease, behavior seems to be more vulnerable to placebo than overall motor function, cognition, and function

Effect of Methodological and Ecological Approaches on Heterogeneity of Nest-Site Selection of a Long-Lived Vulture

The application of scientific-based conservation measures requires that sampling methodologies in studies modelling similar ecological aspects produce comparable results making easier their interpretation. We aimed to show how the choice of different methodological and ecological approaches can affect conclusions in nest-site selection studies along different Palearctic meta-populations of an indicator species. First, a multivariate analysis of the variables affecting nest-site selection in a breeding colony of cinereous vulture (Aegypius monachus) in central Spain was performed. Then, a meta-analysis was applied to establish how methodological and habitat-type factors determine differences and similarities in the results obtained by previous studies that have modelled the forest breeding habitat of the species. Our results revealed patterns in nesting-habitat modelling by the cinereous vulture throughout its whole range: steep and south-facing slopes, great cover of large trees and distance to human activities were generally selected. The ratio and situation of the studied plots (nests/random), the use of plots vs. polygons as sampling units and the number of years of data set determined the variability explained by the model. Moreover, a greater size of the breeding colony implied that ecological and geomorphological variables at landscape level were more influential. Additionally, human activities affected in greater proportion to colonies situated in Mediterranean forests. For the first time, a meta-analysis regarding the factors determining nest-site selection heterogeneity for a single species at broad scale was achieved. It is essential to homogenize and coordinate experimental design in modelling the selection of species' ecological requirements in order to avoid that differences in results among studies would be due to methodological heterogeneity. This would optimize best conservation and management practices for habitats and species in a global context.

Long-term effect of intra-arterial thrombolysis in stroke

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Thrombolysis has been shown to improve the 3-month outcome of patients with ischemic stroke, but knowledge of the long-term effect of thrombolysis is limited. METHODS: The present study compares the long-term outcome of stroke patients who were treated with intra-arterial thrombolysis (IAT) using urokinase with the outcome of patients treated with aspirin. The modified Rankin Scale (mRS) was used to assess the outcome; 173 patients treated with IAT and 261 patients treated with aspirin from the Bernese Stroke Data Bank were eligible for the study. A matching algorithm taking into account patient age and stroke severity on admission (as measured by the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale [NIHSS]) was used to assemble an IAT and an aspirin group. RESULTS: One hundred and forty-four patients treated with IAT and 147 patients treated with aspirin could be matched and included in the comparative analysis. The median NIHSS score was 14 in each group. At 2 years, 56% of the patients treated with IAT and 42% of the patients treated with aspirin achieved functional independence (mRS, 0 to 2; P=0.037). Clinical outcome was excellent (mRS, 0 to 1) in 40% of the IAT and in 24% of the aspirin patients (P=0.008). Mortality was 23% and 24%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The present study provides evidence for a sustained effect of IAT when assessed 2 years after the stroke.

Effect of short-wave (6-22 MHz) magnetic fields on sleep quality and melatonin cycle in humans: the Schwarzenburg shut-down study

This paper describes the results of a unique "natural experiment" of the operation and cessation of a broadcast transmitter with its short-wave electromagnetic fields (6-22 MHz) on sleep quality and melatonin cycle in a general human population sample. In 1998, 54 volunteers (21 men, 33 women) were followed for 1 week each before and after shut-down of the short-wave radio transmitter at Schwarzenburg (Switzerland). Salivary melatonin was sampled five times a day and total daily excretion and acrophase were estimated using complex cosinor analysis. Sleep quality was recorded daily using a visual analogue scale. Before shut down, self-rated sleep quality was reduced by 3.9 units (95% CI: 1.7-6.0) per mA/m increase in magnetic field exposure. The corresponding decrease in melatonin excretion was 10% (95% CI: -32 to 20%). After shutdown, sleep quality improved by 1.7 units (95% CI: 0.1-3.4) per mA/m decrease in magnetic field exposure. Melatonin excretion increased by 15% (95% CI: -3 to 36%) compared to baseline values suggesting a rebound effect. Stratified analyses showed an exposure effect on melatonin excretion in poor sleepers (26% increase; 95% CI: 8-47%) but not in good sleepers. Change in sleep quality and melatonin excretion was related to the extent of magnetic field reduction after the transmitter's shut down in poor but not good sleepers. However, blinding of exposure was not possible in this observational study and this may have affected the outcome measurements in a direct or indirect (psychological) way.

Holocene climatic change and the development of the lake-effect snowbelt in Michigan, USA

Lake-effect snow is an important constraint on ecological and socio-economic systems near the North American Great Lakes. Little is known about the Holocene history of lake-effect snowbelts, and it is difficult to decipher how lake-effect snowfall abundance affected ecosystem development. We conducted oxygen-isotope analysis of calcite in lake-sediment cores from northern Lower Michigan to infer Holocene climatic variation and assess snowbelt development. The two lakes experience the same synoptic-scale climatic systems, but only one of them (Huffman Lake) receives a significant amount of lake-effect snow. A 177-cm difference in annual snowfall causes groundwater inflow at Huffman Lake to be 18O-depleted by 2.3‰ relative to O'Brien Lake. To assess when the lake-effect snowbelt became established, we compared calcite-δ18O profiles of the last 11,500 years from these two sites. The chronologies are based on accelerator-mass-spectrometry 14C ages of 11 and 17 terrestrial-plant samples from Huffman and O'Brien lakes, respectively. The values of δ18O are low at both sites from 11,500 to 9500 cal yr BP when the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) exerted a dominant control over the regional climate and provided periodic pulses of meltwater to the Great Lakes basin. Carbonate δ18O increases by 2.6‰ at O'Brien Lake and by 1.4‰ at Huffman Lake between 9500 and 7000 cal yr BP, suggesting a regional decline in the proportion of runoff derived from winter precipitation. The Great Lakes snowbelt probably developed between 9500 and 5500 cal yr BP as inferred from the progressive 18O-depletion at Huffman Lake relative to O'Brien Lake, with the largest increase of lake-effect snow around 7000 cal yr BP. Lake-effect snow became possible at this time because of increasing contact between the Great Lakes and frigid arctic air. These changes resulted from enhanced westerly flow over the Great Lakes as the LIS collapsed, and from rapidly rising Great Lakes levels during the Nipissing Transgression. The δ18O difference between Huffman and O'Brien lakes declines after 5500 cal yr BP, probably because of a northward shift of the polar vortex that brought increasing winter precipitation to the entire region. However, δ18O remains depleted at Huffman Lake relative to O'Brien Lake because of the continued production of lake-effect snow.

Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a cooling of several degrees. In the stratosphere, the strong heating leads to an acceleration of catalytic ozone loss and, consequently, to enhancements of UV radiation at the ground. In contrast to surface temperature and precipitation changes, which show a linear dependence to the soot burden, there is a saturation effect with respect to stratospheric ozone chemistry. Soot emissions of 5 Tg lead to an ozone column reduction of almost 50% in northern high latitudes, while emitting 12 Tg only increases ozone loss by a further 10%. In summary, this study, though using a different chemistry climate model, corroborates the previous investigations with respect to the atmospheric impacts. In addition to these persistent effects, the present study draws attention to episodically cold phases, which would likely add to the severity of human harm worldwide. The best insurance against such a catastrophic development would be the delegitimization of nuclear weapons.

Anisotropic diffusion at the field scale in a 4-year multi-tracer diffusion and retention experiment – I: Insights from the experimental data

Abstract Claystones are considered worldwide as barrier materials for nuclear waste repositories. In the Mont Terri underground research laboratory (URL), a nearly 4-year diffusion and retention (DR) experiment has been performed in Opalinus Clay. It aimed at (1) obtaining data at larger space and time scales than in laboratory experiments and (2) under relevant in situ conditions with respect to pore water chemistry and mechanical stress, (3) quantifying the anisotropy of in situ diffusion, and (4) exploring possible effects of a borehole-disturbed zone. The experiment included two tracer injection intervals in a borehole perpendicular to bedding, through which traced artificial pore water (APW) was circulated, and a pressure monitoring interval. The APW was spiked with neutral tracers (HTO, HDO, H2O-18), anions (Br, I, SeO4), and cations (Na-22, Ba-133, Sr-85, Cs-137, Co-60, Eu-152, stable Cs, and stable Eu). Most tracers were added at the beginning, some were added at a later stage. The hydraulic pressure in the injection intervals was adjusted according to the measured value in the pressure monitoring interval to ensure transport by diffusion only. Concentration time-series in the APW within the borehole intervals were obtained, as well as 2D concentration distributions in the rock at the end of the experiment after overcoring and subsampling which resulted in �250 samples and �1300 analyses. As expected, HTO diffused the furthest into the rock, followed by the anions (Br, I, SeO4) and by the cationic sorbing tracers (Na-22, Ba-133, Cs, Cs-137, Co-60, Eu-152). The diffusion of SeO4 was slower than that of Br or I, approximately proportional to the ratio of their diffusion coefficients in water. Ba-133 diffused only into �0.1 m during the �4 a. Stable Cs, added at a higher concentration than Cs-137, diffused further into the rock than Cs-137, consistent with a non-linear sorption behavior. The rock properties (e.g., water contents) were rather homogeneous at the centimeter scale, with no evidence of a borehole-disturbed zone. In situ anisotropy ratios for diffusion, derived for the first time directly from field data, are larger for HTO and Na-22 (�5) than for anions (�3�4 for Br and I). The lower ionic strength of the pore water at this location (�0.22 M) as compared to locations of earlier experiments in the Mont Terri URL (�0.39 M) had no notable effect on the anion accessible pore fraction for Cl, Br, and I: the value of 0.55 is within the range of earlier data. Detailed transport simulations involving different codes will be presented in a companion paper.

Combined effect of heterogeneity, anisotropy and saturation on steady state flow and transport: Structure recognition and numerical simulation

1 Natural soil profiles may be interpreted as an arrangement of parts which are characterized by properties like hydraulic conductivity and water retention function. These parts form a complicated structure. Characterizing the soil structure is fundamental in subsurface hydrology because it has a crucial influence on flow and transport and defines the patterns of many ecological processes. We applied an image analysis method for recognition and classification of visual soil attributes in order to model flow and transport through a man-made soil profile. Modeled and measured saturation-dependent effective parameters were compared. We found that characterizing and describing conductivity patterns in soils with sharp conductivity contrasts is feasible. Differently, solving flow and transport on the basis of these conductivity maps is difficult and, in general, requires special care for representation of small-scale processes.

Effect of sedation level on the prevalence of delirium when assessed with CAM-ICU and ICDSC

Purpose We hypothesized that reduced arousability (Richmond Agitation Sedation Scale, RASS, scores −2 to −3) for any reason during delirium assessment increases the apparent prevalence of delirium in intensive care patients. To test this hypothesis, we assessed delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method for the Intensive Care Unit (CAM-ICU) and Intensive Care Delirium Screening Checklist (ICDSC) in intensive care patients during sedation stops, and related the findings to the level of sedation, as assessed with RASS score. Methods We assessed delirium in 80 patients with ICU stay longer than 48 h using CAM-ICU and ICDSC during daily sedation stops. Sedation was assessed using RASS. The effect of including patients with a RASS of −2 and −3 during sedation stop (“light to moderate sedation”, eye contact less than 10 s or not at all, respectively) on prevalence of delirium was analyzed. Results A total of 467 patient days were assessed. The proportion of CAM-ICU-positive evaluations decreased from 53 to 31 % (p < 0.001) if assessments from patients at RASS −2/−3 (22 % of all assessments) were excluded. Similarly, the number of positive ICDSC results decreased from 51 to 29 % (p < 0.001). Conclusions Sedation per se can result in positive items of both CAM-ICU and ICDSC, and therefore in a diagnosis of delirium. Consequently, apparent prevalence of delirium is dependent on how a depressed level of consciousness after sedation stop is interpreted (delirium vs persisting sedation). We suggest that any reports on delirium using these assessment tools should be stratified for a sedation score during the assessment.