Potential drought stress in a Swiss mountain catchment-Ensemble forecasting of high mountain soil moisture reveals a drastic decrease, despite major uncertainties

Climate change is expected to profoundly influence the hydrosphere of mountain ecosystems. The focus of current process-based research is centered on the reaction of glaciers and runoff to climate change; spatially explicit impacts on soil moisture remain widely neglected. We spatio-temporally analyzed the impact of the climate on soil moisture in a mesoscale high mountain catchment to facilitate the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies at the level of vegetation patterns. Two regional climate models were downscaled using three different approaches (statistical downscaling, delta change, and direct use) to drive a hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) for reference and scenario period (1960–1990 and 2070–2100), resulting in an ensemble forecast of six members. For all ensembles members we found large changes in temperature, resulting in decreasing snow and ice storage and earlier runoff, but only small changes in evapotranspiration. The occurrence of downscaled dry spells was found to fluctuate greatly, causing soil moisture depletion and drought stress potential to show high variability in both space and time. In general, the choice of the downscaling approach had a stronger influence on the results than the applied regional climate model. All of the results indicate that summer soil moisture decreases, which leads to more frequent declines below a critical soil moisture level and an advanced evapotranspiration deficit. Forests up to an elevation of 1800 m a.s.l. are likely to be threatened the most, while alpine areas and most pastures remain nearly unaffected. Nevertheless, the ensemble variability was found to be extremely high and should be interpreted as a bandwidth of possible future drought stress situations.

Dynamic SLA management with forecasting using multi-objective optimization

Cost-efficient operation while satisfying performance and availability guarantees in Service Level Agreements (SLAs) is a challenge for Cloud Computing, as these are potentially conflicting objectives. We present a framework for SLA management based on multi-objective optimization. The framework features a forecasting model for determining the best virtual machine-to-host allocation given the need to minimize SLA violations, energy consumption and resource wasting. A comprehensive SLA management solution is proposed that uses event processing for monitoring and enables dynamic provisioning of virtual machines onto the physical infrastructure. We validated our implementation against serveral standard heuristics and were able to show that our approach is significantly better.

Rolling stones and tree rings: A state of research on dendrogeomorphic reconstructions of rockfall

This progress report focuses on the contribution of tree-ring series to rockfall research and on recent development and challenges in the field. Dendrogeomorphic techniques have been used extensively since the early 2000s and several approaches have been developed to extract rockfall signals from tree-ring records of conifer trees. The reconstruction of rockfall chronologies has been hampered in the past by sample sizes that decrease as one goes back in time, as well as by a paucity of studies that include broadleaved tree species, which are in fact quite common in rockfall-prone environments. In this report, we propose a new approach considering impact probability and quantification of uncertainty in the reconstruction of rockfall time series as well as a quantitative estimate of presumably missed events. In addition, we outline new approaches and future perspectives for the inclusion of woody vegetation in hazard assessment procedures, and end with future thematic perspectives.

Scheduling the production of rolling ingots: Industrial context, model, and solution method

We study a real-world scheduling problem arising in the context of a rolling ingots production. First we review the production process and discuss peculiarities that have to be observed when scheduling a given set of production orders on the production facilities. We then show how to model this scheduling problem using prescribed time lags between operations, different kinds of resources, and sequence-dependent changeovers. A branch-and-bound solution procedure is presented in the second part. The basic principle is to relax the resource constraints by assuming infinite resource availability. Resulting resource conflicts are then stepwise resolved by introducing precedence relationships among operations competing for the same resources. The algorithm has been implemented as a beam search heuristic enumerating alternative sets of precedence relationships.

Influence of microphysical schemes on atmospheric water in the Weather Research and Forecasting model

This study examines how different microphysical parameterization schemes influence orographically induced precipitation and the distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour for midlatitude summer conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A high-resolution two-dimensional idealized simulation is used to assess the differences between the schemes in which a moist air flow is interacting with a bell-shaped 2 km high mountain. Periodic lateral boundary conditions are chosen to recirculate atmospheric water in the domain. It is found that the 13 selected microphysical schemes conserve the water in the model domain. The gain or loss of water is less than 0.81% over a simulation time interval of 61 days. The differences of the microphysical schemes in terms of the distributions of water vapour, hydrometeors and accumulated precipitation are presented and discussed. The Kessler scheme, the only scheme without ice-phase processes, shows final values of cloud liquid water 14 times greater than the other schemes. The differences among the other schemes are not as extreme, but still they differ up to 79% in water vapour, up to 10 times in hydrometeors and up to 64% in accumulated precipitation at the end of the simulation. The microphysical schemes also differ in the surface evaporation rate. The WRF single-moment 3-class scheme has the highest surface evaporation rate compensated by the highest precipitation rate. The different distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour of the microphysical schemes induce differences up to 49 W m−2 in the downwelling shortwave radiation and up to 33 W m−2 in the downwelling longwave radiation.

PSGL-1 and E/P-selectins are essential for T-cell rolling in inflamed CNS microvessels but dispensable for initiation of EAE

T-cell migration across the blood-brain barrier is a crucial step in the pathogenesis of EAE, an animal model for MS. Live cell imaging studies demonstrated that P-selectin glycoprotein ligand-1 (PSGL-1) and its endothelial ligands E- and P-selectin mediate the initial rolling of T cells in brain vessels during EAE. As functional absence of PSGL-1 or E/P-selectins does not result in ameliorated EAE, we speculated that T-cell entry into the spinal cord is independent of PSGL-1 and E/P-selectin. Performing intravital microscopy, we observed the interaction of WT or PSGL-1(-/-) proteolipid protein-specific T cells in inflamed spinal cord microvessels of WT or E/P-selectin(-/-) SJL/J mice during EAE. T-cell rolling but not T-cell capture was completely abrogated in the absence of either PSGL-1 or E- and P-selectin, resulting in a significantly reduced number of T cells able to firmly adhere in the inflamed spinal cord microvessels, but did not lead to reduced T-cell invasion into the CNS parenchyma. Thus, PSGL-1 interaction with E/P-selectin is essential for T-cell rolling in inflamed spinal cord microvessels during EAE. Taken together with previous observations, our findings show that T-cell rolling is not required for successful T-cell entry into the CNS and initiation of EAE.

Generation of long, fully modified, and serum-resistant oligonucleotides by rolling circle amplification

Rolling Circle Amplification (RCA) is an isothermal enzymatic method generating single-stranded DNA products consisting of concatemers containing multiple copies of the reverse complement of the circular template precursor. Little is known on the compatibility of modified nucleoside triphosphates (dN*TPs) with RCA, which would enable the synthesis of long, fully modified ssDNA sequences. Here, dNTPs modified at any position of the scaffold were shown to be compatible with rolling circle amplification, yielding long (>1 kb), and fully modified single-stranded DNA products. This methodology was applied for the generation of long, cytosine-rich synthetic mimics of telomeric DNA. The resulting modified oligo-nucleotides displayed an improved resistance to fetal bovine serum.