Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors in clinical trials with historical control information.

Historical information is always relevant for clinical trial design. Additionally, if incorporated in the analysis of a new trial, historical data allow to reduce the number of subjects. This decreases costs and trial duration, facilitates recruitment, and may be more ethical. Yet, under prior-data conflict, a too optimistic use of historical data may be inappropriate. We address this challenge by deriving a Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive prior from historical data, which is then combined with the new data. This prospective approach is equivalent to a meta-analytic-combined analysis of historical and new data if parameters are exchangeable across trials. The prospective Bayesian version requires a good approximation of the meta-analytic-predictive prior, which is not available analytically. We propose two- or three-component mixtures of standard priors, which allow for good approximations and, for the one-parameter exponential family, straightforward posterior calculations. Moreover, since one of the mixture components is usually vague, mixture priors will often be heavy-tailed and therefore robust. Further robustness and a more rapid reaction to prior-data conflicts can be achieved by adding an extra weakly-informative mixture component. Use of historical prior information is particularly attractive for adaptive trials, as the randomization ratio can then be changed in case of prior-data conflict. Both frequentist operating characteristics and posterior summaries for various data scenarios show that these designs have desirable properties. We illustrate the methodology for a phase II proof-of-concept trial with historical controls from four studies. Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors alleviate prior-data conflicts ' they should encourage better and more frequent use of historical data in clinical trials.

A robust reference signal generator for synchronized ventricular assist devices

Ventricular assist devices (VADs) are blood pumps that offer an option to support the circulation of patients with severe heart failure. Since a failing heart has a remaining pump function, its interaction with the VAD influences the hemodynamics. Ideally, the heart's action is taken into account for actuating the device such that the device is synchronized to the natural cardiac cycle. To realize this in practice, a reliable real-time algorithm for the automatic synchronization of the VAD to the heart rate is required. This paper defines the tasks such an algorithm needs to fulfill: the automatic detection of irregular heart beats and the feedback control of the phase shift between the systolic phases of the heart and the assist device. We demonstrate a possible solution to these problems and analyze its performance in two steps. First, the algorithm is tested using the MIT-BIH arrhythmia database. Second, the algorithm is implemented in a controller for a pulsatile and a continuous-flow VAD. These devices are connected to a hybrid mock circulation where three test scenarios are evaluated. The proposed algorithm ensures a reliable synchronization of the VAD to the heart cycle, while being insensitive to irregularities in the heart rate.

Robust estimates of climate-induced hydrological change in a temperate mountainous region

A sustainable water resources management depends on sound information about the impacts of climate change. This information is, however, not easily derived because natural runoff variability interferes with the climate change signal. This study presents a procedure that leads to robust estimates of magnitude and Time Of Emergence (TOE) of climate-induced hydrological change that also account for the natural variability contained in the time series. Firstly, natural variability of 189 mesoscale catchments in Switzerland is sampled for 10 ENSEMBLES scenarios for the control (1984–2005) and two scenario periods (near future: 2025–2046, far future: 2074–2095) applying a bootstrap procedure. Then, the sampling distributions of mean monthly runoff are tested for significant differences with the Wilcoxon-Mann–Whitney test and for effect size with Cliff’s delta d. Finally, the TOE of a climate change induced hydrological change is determined when at least eight out of the ten hydrological projections significantly differ from natural variability. The results show that the TOE occurs in the near future period except for high-elevated catchments in late summer. The significant hydrological projections in the near future correspond, however, to only minor runoff changes. In the far future, hydrological change is statistically significant and runoff changes are substantial. Temperature change is the most important factor determining hydrological change in this mountainous region. Therefore, hydrological change depends strongly on a catchment’s mean elevation. Considering that the hydrological changes are predicted to be robust in the near future highlights the importance of accounting for these changes in water resources planning.

Early metacognitive abilities: The interplay of monitoring and control processes in 5- to 7-year-old children

The goal of the current investigation was to compare two monitoring processes (judgments of learning [JOLs] and confidence judgments [CJs]) and their corresponding control processes (allocation of study time and selection of answers to maximize accuracy, respectively) in 5- to 7-year-old children (N=101). Children learned the meaning of Japanese characters and provided JOLs after a study phase and CJs after a memory test. They were given the opportunity to control their learning in self-paced study phases, and to control their accuracy by placing correct answers into a treasure chest and incorrect answers into a trash can. All three age groups gave significantly higher CJs for correct compared to incorrect answers, with no age-related differences in the magnitude of this difference, suggesting robust metacognitive monitoring skills in children as young as 5. Furthermore, a link between JOLs and study time was found in the 6- and 7-year-olds, such that children spent more time studying items with low JOLs compared to items with high JOLs. Also, 6- and 7-year-olds but not 5-year-olds spent more time studying difficult items compared to easier items. Moreover, age-related improvements were found in children's use of CJs to guide their selection of answers: although children as young as 5 placed their most confident answers in the treasure chest and least confident answers in the trash can, this pattern was more robust in older children. Overall, results support the view that some metacognitive judgments may be acted upon with greater ease than others among young children.

Passionate thinkers feel better: Self-control capacity as mediator of the relationship between need for cognition and affective adjustment

The present study tested a possible explanation for the positive relationship between the motivation to engage in cognitive endeavors (need for cognition, NFC) and indicators of affective adjustment (e.g., higher self-esteem, lower depression) that has been demonstrated in previous studies. We suggest that dispositional self-control capacity mediates this relationship, since NFC has been found to be related to self-control capacity, and self-control capacity is crucial for adjustment. NFC, dispositional self-control capacity, self-esteem, habitual depressive mood, and tendency to respond in a socially desirable manner were measured among 150 university students via self-report. Regression analyses and Sobel tests revealed that self-control capacity was a potential mediator of the positive relationship between NFC and affective adjustment. The findings were robust in terms of social desirability.