Static replications with traffic light options

It is well known that sufficiently regular, one-dimensional payoff functions have an explicit static hedge by bonds, forward contracts, and options in a continuum of strikes. An easy and natural extension of the corresponding representation leads to static hedges based on the same instruments along with traffic light options, which have recently been introduced in the market. It is well known that the second strike derivative of non-discounted prices of vanilla options is related to the risk-neutral density of the underlying asset price in the corresponding absolutely continuous settings. Similar statements hold for traffic light options in sufficiently regular, bivariate settings.

Distinct subcellular expression patterns of neutral endopeptidase (CD10) in prostate cancer predict diverging clinical courses in surgically treated patients

PURPOSE: Neutral endopeptidase (CD10), an ectopeptidase bound to the cell surface, is thought to be a potential prognostic marker for prostate cancer. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Prostate cancer patients (N = 3,261) treated by radical prostatectomy at a single institution were evaluated by using tissue microarray. Follow-up data were available for 2,385 patients. The cellular domain (membranous, membranous-cytoplasmatic, and cytoplasmatic only) of CD10 expression was analyzed immunohistochemically and correlated with various clinical and histopathologic features of the tumors. RESULTS: CD10 expression was detected in 62.2% of cancer samples and occurred preferentially in higher Gleason pattern (P < 0.0001). CD10 expression positively correlated with adverse tumor features such as elevated preoperative prostate-specific antigen (PSA), higher Gleason score, and advanced stage (P < 0.0001 each). Survival analyses showed that PSA recurrence was significantly associated with the staining pattern of CD10 expression. Outcome significantly declined from negative over membranous, membranous-cytoplasmatic, to exclusively cytoplasmatic CD10 expression (P < 0.0001). In multivariate analysis, CD10 expression was an independent predictor for PSA failure (P = 0.0343). CONCLUSIONS: CD10 expression is an unfavorable independent risk factor in prostate cancer. The subcellular location of CD10 protein is associated with specific clinical courses, suggesting an effect on different important biological properties of prostate cancer cells. The frequent expression of CD10 in prostate cancer and the strong association of CD10 with unfavorable tumor features may qualify this biomarker for targeted therapies.

Whole-body vibration exposure study in U.S. railroad locomotives--an ergonomic risk assessment

Whole-body vibration exposure of locomotive engineers and the vibration attenuation of seats in 22 U.S. locomotives (built between 1959 and 2000) was studied during normal revenue service and following international measurement guidelines. Triaxial vibration measurements (duration mean 155 min, range 84-383 min) on the seat and on the floor were compared. In addition to the basic vibration evaluation (aw rms), the vector sum (av), the maximum transient vibration value (MTVV/aw), the vibration dose value (VDV/(aw T1/4)), and the vibration seat effective transmissibility factor (SEAT) were calculated. The power spectral densities are also reported. The mean basic vibration level (aw rms) was for the fore-aft axis x = 0.18 m/sec2, the lateral axis y = 0.28 m/sec2, and the vertical axis z = 0.32 m/sec2. The mean vector sum was 0.59 m/sec2 (range 0.27 to 1.44). The crest factors were generally at or above 9 in the horizontal and vertical axis. The mean MTVV/aw was 5.3 (x), 5.1 (y), and 4.8 (z), and the VDV/(aw T1/4) values ranged from 1.32 to 2.3 (x-axis), 1.33 to 1.7 (y-axis), and 1.38 to 1.86 (z-axis), generally indicating high levels of shocks. The mean seat transmissibility factor (SEAT) was 1.4 (x) and 1.2 (y) and 1 (z), demonstrating a general ineffectiveness of any of the seat suspension systems. In conclusion, these data indicate that locomotive rides are characterized by relatively high shock content (acceleration peaks) of the vibration signal in all directions. Locomotive vertical and lateral vibrations are similar, which appears to be characteristic for rail vehicles compared with many road/off-road vehicles. Tested locomotive cab seats currently in use (new or old) appear inadequate to reduce potentially harmful vibration and shocks transmitted to the seated operator, and older seats particularly lack basic ergonomic features regarding adjustability and postural support.

The risk of early mortality of polytrauma patients associated to ISS, NISS, APACHE II values and prothrombin time

BACKGROUND: The early hemodynamic normalization of polytrauma patients may lead to better survival outcomes. The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic quality of trauma and physiological scores from widely used scoring systems in polytrauma patients. METHODS: In total, 770 patients with ISS > 16 who were admitted to a trauma center within the first 24 hours after injury were included in this retrospective study. The patients were subdivided into three groups: those who died on the day of admission, those who died within the first three days, and those who survived for longer than three days. ISS, NISS, APACHE II score, and prothrombin time were recorded at admission. RESULTS: The descriptive statistics for early death in polytrauma patients who died on the day of admission, 1--3 days after admission, and > 3 days after admission were: ISS of 41.0, 34.0, and 29.0, respectively; NISS of 50.0, 50.0, and 41.0, respectively; APACHE II score of 30.0, 25.0, and 15.0, respectively; and prothrombin time of 37.0%, 56.0%, and 84%, respectively. These data indicate that prothrombin time (AUC: 0.89) and APACHE II (AUC: 0.88) have the greatest prognostic utility for early death. CONCLUSION: The estimated densities of the scores may suggest a direction for resuscitative procedures in polytrauma patients.Trial registration: "Retrospektive Analysen in der Chirurgischen Intensivmedizin" StV01-2008.http://www.kek.zh.ch/internet/gesundheitsdirektion/kek/de/home.html.

Role of diuretics, blockers, and statins in increasing the risk of diabetes in patients with impaired glucose tolerance: reanalysis of data from the NAVIGATOR study

OBJECTIVE To examine the degree to which use of β blockers, statins, and diuretics in patients with impaired glucose tolerance and other cardiovascular risk factors is associated with new onset diabetes. DESIGN Reanalysis of data from the Nateglinide and Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research (NAVIGATOR) trial. SETTING NAVIGATOR trial. PARTICIPANTS Patients who at baseline (enrolment) were treatment naïve to β blockers (n=5640), diuretics (n=6346), statins (n=6146), and calcium channel blockers (n=6294). Use of calcium channel blocker was used as a metabolically neutral control. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Development of new onset diabetes diagnosed by standard plasma glucose level in all participants and confirmed with glucose tolerance testing within 12 weeks after the increased glucose value was recorded. The relation between each treatment and new onset diabetes was evaluated using marginal structural models for causal inference, to account for time dependent confounding in treatment assignment. RESULTS During the median five years of follow-up, β blockers were started in 915 (16.2%) patients, diuretics in 1316 (20.7%), statins in 1353 (22.0%), and calcium channel blockers in 1171 (18.6%). After adjusting for baseline characteristics and time varying confounders, diuretics and statins were both associated with an increased risk of new onset diabetes (hazard ratio 1.23, 95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.44, and 1.32, 1.14 to 1.48, respectively), whereas β blockers and calcium channel blockers were not associated with new onset diabetes (1.10, 0.92 to 1.31, and 0.95, 0.79 to 1.13, respectively). CONCLUSIONS Among people with impaired glucose tolerance and other cardiovascular risk factors and with serial glucose measurements, diuretics and statins were associated with an increased risk of new onset diabetes, whereas the effect of β blockers was non-significant.

Risk factors associated with cast complications in horses: 398 cases (1997-2006)

OBJECTIVE To determine the frequency of and risk factors for complications associated with casts in horses. DESIGN Multicenter retrospective case series. ANIMALS 398 horses with a half-limb or full-limb cast treated at 1 of 4 hospitals. PROCEDURES Data collected from medical records included age, breed, sex, injury, limb affected, time from injury to hospital admission, surgical procedure performed, type of cast (bandage cast [BC; fiberglass tape applied over a bandage] or traditional cast [TC; fiberglass tape applied over polyurethane resin-impregnated foam]), limb position in cast (flexed, neutral, or extended), and complications. Risk factors for cast complications were identified via multiple logistic regression. RESULTS Cast complications were detected in 197 of 398 (49%) horses (18/53 [34%] horses with a BC and 179/345 [52%] horses with a TC). Of the 197 horses with complications, 152 (77%) had clinical signs of complications prior to cast removal; the most common clinical signs were increased lameness severity and visibly detectable soft tissue damage Cast sores were the most common complication (179/398 [45%] horses). Casts broke for 20 (5%) horses. Three (0.8%) horses developed a bone fracture attributable to casting Median time to detection of complications was 12 days and 8 days for horses with TCs and BCs, respectively. Complications developed in 71%, 48%, and 47% of horses with the casted limb in a flexed, neutral, and extended position, respectively. For horses with TCs, hospital, limb position in the cast, and sex were significant risk factors for development of cast complications. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Results indicated that 49% of horses with a cast developed cast complications.

Neural correlates of evaluating hazards of high risk.

In personal and in society related context, people often evaluate the risk of environmental and technological hazards. Previous research addressing neuroscience of risk evaluation assessed particularly the direct personal risk of presented stimuli, which may have comprised for instance aspects of fear. Further, risk evaluation primarily was compared to tasks of other cognitive domains serving as control conditions, thus revealing general risk related brain activity, but not such specifically associated with estimating a higher level of risk. We here investigated the neural basis on which lay-persons individually evaluated the risk of different potential hazards for the society. Twenty healthy subjects underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while evaluating the risk of fifty more or less risky conditions presented as written terms. Brain activations during the individual estimations of 'high' against 'low' risk, and of negative versus neutral and positive emotional valences were analyzed. Estimating hazards to be of high risk was associated with activation in medial thalamus, anterior insula, caudate nucleus, cingulate cortex and further prefrontal and temporo-occipital areas. These areas were not involved according to an analysis of the emotion ratings. In conclusion, we emphasize a contribution of the mentioned brain areas involved to signal high risk, here not primarily associated with the emotional valence of the risk items. These areas have earlier been reported to be associated with, beside emotional, viscerosensitive and implicit processing. This leads to assumptions of an intuitive contribution, or a "gut-feeling", not necessarily dependent of the subjective emotional valence, when estimating a high risk of environmental hazards.

Evaluating perspectives for PRRS virus elimination from pig dense areas with a risk factor based herd index

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) is wide-spread in pig populations globally. In many regions of Europe with intensive pig production and high herd densities, the virus is endemic and can cause disease and production losses. This fuels discussion about the feasibility and sustainability of virus elimination from larger geographic regions. The implementation of a program aiming at virus elimination for areas with high pig density is unprecedented and its potential success is unknown. The objective of this work was to approach pig population data with a simple method that could support assessing the feasibility of a sustainable regional PRRSV elimination. Based on known risk factors such as pig herd structure and neighborhood conditions, an index characterizing individual herds' potential for endemic virus circulation and reinfection was designed. This index was subsequently used to compare data of all pig herds in two regions with different pig- and herd-densities in Lower Saxony (North-West Germany) where PRRSV is endemic. Distribution of the indexed herds was displayed using GIS. Clusters of high herd index densities forming potential risk hot spots were identified which could represent key target areas for surveillance and biosecurity measures under a control program aimed at virus elimination. In an additional step, for the study region with the higher pig density (2463 pigs/km(2) farmland), the potential distribution of PRRSV-free and non-free herds during the implementation of a national control program aiming at national virus elimination was modeled. Complex herd and trade network structures suggest that PRRSV elimination in regions with intensive pig farming like that of middle Europe would have to involve legal regulation and be accompanied by important trade and animal movement restrictions. The proposed methodology of risk index mapping could be adapted to areas varying in size, herd structure and density. Interpreted in the regional context, this could help to classify the density of risk and to accordingly target resources and measures for elimination.

Influence of Martian crustal magnetic anomalies on the emission of energetic neutral hydrogen atoms

We analyze the data on hydrogen energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) emissions from the dayside of Mars, recorded by a Neutral Particle Detector of the Analyzer of Space Plasmas and Energetic Atoms aboard Mars Express from 14 March to 9 July 2004. We first identify and analyze events of the ENA flux enhancement coinciding with the presence of the crustal magnetic anomalies on the dayside of Mars. We then backtrace the ENA emissions to the lower altitudes (source region) and build up an average map of the flux intensities in the geographic coordinates with all the available data. The map shows a peak-to-valley ENA flux enhancement of 40%–90% close to the crustal magnetic anomaly regions. These results suggest the influence of the magnetic anomalies on the ENA emission from the dayside of Mars. The enhancement may result from the deviation of the highly directional plasma flow above anomalies toward the detectors such that more charge exchange ENAs would be recorded. Alternatively, higher exospheric densities above the anomalies would also result in an increase of the charge exchange ENA flux.

Visual avoidance in phobia: particularities in neural activity, autonomic responding, and cognitive risk evaluations.

We investigated the neural mechanisms and the autonomic and cognitive responses associated with visual avoidance behavior in spider phobia. Spider phobic and control participants imagined visiting different forest locations with the possibility of encountering spiders, snakes, or birds (neutral reference category). In each experimental trial, participants saw a picture of a forest location followed by a picture of a spider, snake, or bird, and then rated their personal risk of encountering these animals in this context, as well as their fear. The greater the visual avoidance of spiders that a phobic participant demonstrated (as measured by eye tracking), the higher were her autonomic arousal and neural activity in the amygdala, orbitofrontal cortex (OFC), anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), and precuneus at picture onset. Visual avoidance of spiders in phobics also went hand in hand with subsequently reduced cognitive risk of encounters. Control participants, in contrast, displayed a positive relationship between gaze duration toward spiders, on the one hand, and autonomic responding, as well as OFC, ACC, and precuneus activity, on the other hand. In addition, they showed reduced encounter risk estimates when they looked longer at the animal pictures. Our data are consistent with the idea that one reason for phobics to avoid phobic information may be grounded in heightened activity in the fear circuit, which signals potential threat. Because of the absence of alternative efficient regulation strategies, visual avoidance may then function to down-regulate cognitive risk evaluations for threatening information about the phobic stimuli. Control participants, in contrast, may be characterized by a different coping style, whereby paying visual attention to potentially threatening information may help them to actively down-regulate cognitive evaluations of risk.

ROSINA/DFMS and IES observations of 67P: Ion-neutral chemistry in the coma of a weakly outgassing comet

Context. The Rosetta encounter with comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko provides a unique opportunity for an in situ, up-close investigation of ion-neutral chemistry in the coma of a weakly outgassing comet far from the Sun. Aims. Observations of primary and secondary ions and modeling are used to investigate the role of ion-neutral chemistry within the thin coma. Methods. Observations from late October through mid-December 2014 show the continuous presence of the solar wind 30 km from the comet nucleus. These and other observations indicate that there is no contact surface and the solar wind has direct access to the nucleus. On several occasions during this time period, the Rosetta/ROSINA/Double Focusing Mass Spectrometer measured the low-energy ion composition in the coma. Organic volatiles and water group ions and their breakup products (masses 14 through 19), CO2+ (masses 28 and 44) and other mass peaks (at masses 26, 27, and possibly 30) were observed. Secondary ions include H3O+ and HCO+ (masses 19 and 29). These secondary ions indicate ion-neutral chemistry in the thin coma of the comet. A relatively simple model is constructed to account for the low H3O+/H2O+ and HCO+/CO+ ratios observed in a water dominated coma. Results from this simple model are compared with results from models that include a more detailed chemical reaction network. Results. At low outgassing rates, predictions from the simple model agree with observations and with results from more complex models that include much more chemistry. At higher outgassing rates, the ion-neutral chemistry is still limited and high HCO+/CO+ ratios are predicted and observed. However, at higher outgassing rates, the model predicts high H3O+/H2O+ ratios and the observed ratios are often low. These low ratios may be the result of the highly heterogeneous nature of the coma, where CO and CO2 number densities can exceed that of water.