Variation in precursor lesions of pancreatic cancer among high-risk groups

PURPOSE Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) surveillance programs are currently offered to high-risk individuals aiming to detect precursor lesions or PDAC at an early stage. We assessed differences in frequency and behavior of precursor lesions and PDAC between two high-risk groups. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN Individuals with a p16-Leiden germline mutation (N = 116; median age 54 years) and individuals from familial pancreatic cancer (FPC) families (N = 125; median age 47 years) were offered annual surveillance by MRI and magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) with or without endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) for a median surveillance period of 34 months (0-127 months) or 36 months (0-110 months), respectively. Detailed information was collected on pancreatic cystic lesions detected on MRCP and precursor lesions in surgical specimens of patients who underwent pancreatic surgery. RESULTS Cystic lesions were more common in the FPC cohort (42% vs. 16% in p16-Leiden cohort), whereas PDAC was more common in the p16-Leiden cohort (7% vs. 0.8% in FPC cohort). Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) was a common finding in surgical specimens of FPC-individuals, and was only found in two patients of the p16-Leiden cohort. In the p16-Leiden cohort, a substantial proportion of cystic lesions showed growth or malignant transformation during follow-up, whereas in FPC individuals most cystic lesions remain stable. CONCLUSION In p16-Leiden mutation carriers, cystic lesions have a higher malignant potential than in FPC-individuals. On the basis of these findings, a more intensive surveillance program may be considered in this high-risk group.

Prognostic factors and risk groups in T1G3 non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients initially treated with Bacillus Calmette-Guérin: results of a retrospective multicenter study of 2451 patients

BACKGROUND The impact of prognostic factors in T1G3 non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (BCa) patients is critical for proper treatment decision making. OBJECTIVE To assess prognostic factors in patients who received bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) as initial intravesical treatment of T1G3 tumors and to identify a subgroup of high-risk patients who should be considered for more aggressive treatment. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Individual patient data were collected for 2451 T1G3 patients from 23 centers who received BCG between 1990 and 2011. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Using Cox multivariable regression, the prognostic importance of several clinical variables was assessed for time to recurrence, progression, BCa-specific survival, and overall survival (OS). RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS With a median follow-up of 5.2 yr, 465 patients (19%) progressed, 509 (21%) underwent cystectomy, and 221 (9%) died because of BCa. In multivariable analyses, the most important prognostic factors for progression were age, tumor size, and concomitant carcinoma in situ (CIS); the most important prognostic factors for BCa-specific survival and OS were age and tumor size. Patients were divided into four risk groups for progression according to the number of adverse factors among age ≥ 70 yr, size ≥ 3 cm, and presence of CIS. Progression rates at 10 yr ranged from 17% to 52%. BCa-specific death rates at 10 yr were 32% in patients ≥ 70 yr with tumor size ≥ 3 cm and 13% otherwise. CONCLUSIONS T1G3 patients ≥ 70 yr with tumors ≥ 3 cm and concomitant CIS should be treated more aggressively because of the high risk of progression. PATIENT SUMMARY Although the majority of T1G3 patients can be safely treated with intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin, there is a subgroup of T1G3 patients with age ≥ 70 yr, tumor size ≥ 3 cm, and concomitant CIS who have a high risk of progression and thus require aggressive treatment.

Health risk appraisal in older people 1: are older people living alone an "at-risk" group?

BACKGROUND: In the UK, population screening for unmet need has failed to improve the health of older people. Attention is turning to interventions targeted at 'at-risk' groups. Living alone in later life is seen as a potential health risk, and older people living alone are thought to be an at-risk group worthy of further intervention. AIM: To explore the clinical significance of living alone and the epidemiology of lone status as an at-risk category, by investigating associations between lone status and health behaviours, health status, and service use, in non-disabled older people. Design of study: Secondary analysis of baseline data from a randomised controlled trial of health risk appraisal in older people. SETTING: Four group practices in suburban London. METHOD: Sixty per cent of 2641 community-dwelling non-disabled people aged 65 years and over registered at a practice agreed to participate in the study; 84% of these returned completed questionnaires. A third of this group, (n = 860, 33.1%) lived alone and two-thirds (n = 1741, 66.9%) lived with someone else. RESULTS: Those living alone were more likely to report fair or poor health, poor vision, difficulties in instrumental and basic activities of daily living, worse memory and mood, lower physical activity, poorer diet, worsening function, risk of social isolation, hazardous alcohol use, having no emergency carer, and multiple falls in the previous 12 months. After adjustment for age, sex, income, and educational attainment, living alone remained associated with multiple falls, functional impairment, poor diet, smoking status, risk of social isolation, and three self-reported chronic conditions: arthritis and/or rheumatism, glaucoma, and cataracts. CONCLUSION: Clinicians working with independently-living older people living alone should anticipate higher levels of disease and disability in these patients, and higher health and social risks, much of which will be due to older age, lower educational status, and female sex. Living alone itself appears to be associated with higher risks of falling, and constellations of pathologies, including visual loss and joint disorders. Targeted population screening using lone status may be useful in identifying older individuals at high risk of falling.

Mortality from road traffic accidents in Switzerland: longitudinal and spatial analyses

Road traffic accidents (RTA) are an important cause of premature death. We examined socio-demographic and geographical determinants of RTA mortality in Switzerland by linking 2000 census data to RTA mortality records 2000-2005 (ICD-10 codes V00-V99). Data from 5.5 million residents aged 18-94 years, 1744 study areas, and 1620 RTA deaths were analyzed, including 978 deaths (60.4%) in motor vehicle occupants, 254 (15.7%) in motorcyclists, 107 (6.6%) in cyclists, and 259 (16.0%) in pedestrians. Weibull survival models and Bayesian methods were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR), and standardized mortality ratios (SMR) across study areas. Adjusted HR comparing women with men ranged from 0.04 (95% CI 0.02-0.07) in motorcyclists to 0.43 (95% CI 0.32-0.56) in pedestrians. There was a u-shaped relationship with age in motor vehicle occupants and motorcyclists. In cyclists and pedestrians, mortality increased after age 55 years. Mortality was higher in individuals with primary education (HR 1.53; 95% CI 1.29-1.81), and higher in single (HR 1.24; 95% CI 1.05-1.46), widowed (HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.05-1.65) and divorced individuals (HR 1.62; 95% CI 1.33-1.97), compared to persons with tertiary education or married persons. The association with education was particularly strong for pedestrians (HR 1.87; 95% CI 1.20-2.91). RTA mortality increased with decreasing population density of study areas for motor vehicle occupants (test for trend p<0.0001) and motorcyclists (p=0.0021) but not for cyclists (p=0.39) or pedestrians (p=0.29). SMR standardized for socio-demographic and geographical variables ranged from 82 to 190. Prevention efforts should aim to reduce inequities across socio-demographic and educational groups, and across geographical areas, with interventions targeted at high-risk groups and areas, and different traffic users, including pedestrians.

Tuberculosis in HIV-Negative and HIV-Infected Patients in a Low-Incidence Country: Clinical Characteristics and Treatment Outcomes

Background In Switzerland and other developed countries, the number of tuberculosis (TB) cases has been decreasing for decades, but HIV-infected patients and migrants remain risk groups. The aim of this study was to compare characteristics of TB in HIV-negative and HIV-infected patients diagnosed in Switzerland, and between coinfected patients enrolled and not enrolled in the national Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). Methods and Findings All patients diagnosed with culture-confirmed TB in the SHCS and a random sample of culture-confirmed cases reported to the national TB registry 2000–2008 were included. Outcomes were assessed in HIV-infected patients and considered successful in case of cure or treatment completion. Ninety-three SHCS patients and 288 patients selected randomly from 4221 registered patients were analyzed. The registry sample included 10 (3.5%) coinfected patients not enrolled in the SHCS: the estimated number of HIV-infected patients not enrolled in the SHCS but reported to the registry 2000–2008 was 146 (95% CI 122–173). Coinfected patients were more likely to be from sub-Saharan Africa (51.5% versus 15.8%, P<0.0001) and to present disseminated disease (23.9% vs. 3.4%, P<0.0001) than HIV-negative patients. Coinfected patients not enrolled in the SHCS were asylum seekers or migrant workers, with lower CD4 cell counts at TB diagnosis (median CD4 count 79 cells/µL compared to 149 cells/µL among SHCS patients, P = 0.07). There were 6 patients (60.0%) with successful outcomes compared to 82 (88.2%) patients in the SHCS (P = 0.023). Conclusions The clinical presentation of coinfected patients differed from HIV-negative TB patients. The number of HIV-infected patients diagnosed with TB outside the SHCS is similar to the number diagnosed within the cohort but outcomes are poorer in patients not followed up in the national cohort. Special efforts are required to address the needs of this vulnerable population.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission in a country with low tuberculosis incidence: role of immigration and HIV infection

Immigrants from high-burden countries and HIV-coinfected individuals are risk groups for tuberculosis (TB) in countries with low TB incidence. Therefore, we studied their role in transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Switzerland. We included all TB patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort and a sample of patients from the national TB registry. We identified molecular clusters by spoligotyping and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive-unit-variable-number tandem-repeat (MIRU-VNTR) analysis and used weighted logistic regression adjusted for age and sex to identify risk factors for clustering, taking sampling proportions into account. In total, we analyzed 520 TB cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2008; 401 were foreign born, and 113 were HIV coinfected. The Euro-American M. tuberculosis lineage dominated throughout the study period (378 strains; 72.7%), with no evidence for another lineage, such as the Beijing genotype, emerging. We identified 35 molecular clusters with 90 patients, indicating recent transmission; 31 clusters involved foreign-born patients, and 15 involved HIV-infected patients. Birth origin was not associated with clustering (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73 to 3.43; P = 0.25, comparing Swiss-born with foreign-born patients), but clustering was reduced in HIV-infected patients (aOR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.93; P = 0.030). Cavitary disease, male sex, and younger age were all associated with molecular clustering. In conclusion, most TB patients in Switzerland were foreign born, but transmission of M. tuberculosis was not more common among immigrants and was reduced in HIV-infected patients followed up in the national HIV cohort study. Continued access to health services and clinical follow-up will be essential to control TB in this population.

Investigation of a large community-based outbreak of hepatitis B infection in the United Kingdom

We describe the largest outbreak of hepatitis B virus infection reported to date in the UK. Between July 2001 and December 2005, 237 cases were identified in Avon, South West England. The likely route of transmission was injecting drug use in 44% (104/237) and heterosexual intercourse in 30% (71/237) of cases. A case-control study in injectors showed that injecting crack cocaine [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 23·8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3·04-186, P<0·001] and sharing injecting paraphernalia in the year before diagnosis (aOR 16·67, 95% CI 1·78-100, P=0·010) were strongly associated with acute hepatitis B. In non-IDUs number of sexual partners and lack of consistent condom use were high compared to a national sample. We describe the control measures implemented in response to the outbreak. This outbreak has highlighted the problems associated with the low uptake from the national hepatitis B vaccination policy which targets high-risk groups, the difficulties of identifying those at risk of acquiring hepatitis B infection through heterosexual sex, and injecting crack cocaine as a risk factor for hepatitis B.

[Childhood's determinants for high blood pressure in adulthood]

Hypertension has been estimated to affect 20 - 25% of the adult population and represents an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease like coronary heart disease, stroke and peripheral artery occlusive disease. In addition, hypertension supports the development and progression of chronic kidney insufficiency. The interaction of multiple genetic and environmental factors are felt to influence the level of blood pressure. Epidemiological data in the sixties and seventies demonstrated a correlation between cardiovascular disease and infant mortality in the same population. In the late eighties Barker and coworkers described a strong correlation between low birth weight and increased risk for the development of cardiovascular complications. It has been supposed that factors influencing the intrauterine growth and development can lead to adult cardiovascular diseases, known as the concept of "fetal programming". Beside the effect of fetal programming, multiple (preventable and non-preventable) factors determine the blood pressure level in childhood, which will define adult blood pressure level through the blood pressure tracking from childhood to adulthood. Hence, the prevention of cardiovascular disease in adulthood begins in childhood through identification of preventable risk factors as for example obesity and passive smoking and recognition of risk groups like small for gestational age or preterm children.

Cognitive functioning in the schizophrenia prodrome

In the last decade, there has been an increasing interest in cognitive alterations during the early course of schizophrenia. From a clinical perspective, a better understanding of cognitive functioning in putative at-risk states for schizophrenia is essential for developing optimal early intervention models. Two approaches have more recently been combined to assess the entire course of the initial schizophrenia prodrome: the predictive "basic symptom at-risk" (BS) and the ultra high-risk (UHR) criteria. Basic symptoms are considered to be present during the entire disease progression, including the initial prodrome, while the onset of symptoms captured by the UHR criteria expresses further disease progression toward frank psychosis. The present study investigated the cognitive functioning in 93 subjects who met either BS or UHR criteria and thus were assumed to be at different points on the putative trajectory to psychosis. We compared them with 43 patients with a first episode of psychosis and to 49 help-seeking patient controls. All groups performed significantly below normative values. Both at-risk groups performed at intermediate levels between the first-episode (FE) group and normative values. The UHR group demonstrated intermediate performance between the FE and BS groups. Overall, auditory working memory, verbal fluency/processing speed, and declarative verbal memory were impaired the most. Our results suggest that cognitive impairments may still be modest in the early stages of the initial schizophrenia prodrome and thus support current efforts to intervene in the early course of impending schizophrenia because early intervention may prevent or delay the onset of frank psychosis and thus prevent further cognitive damage.

HHV-8 seroprevalence: a global view

BACKGROUND Human herpes virus 8 (HHV-8) is the underlying infectious cause of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) and other proliferative diseases; that is, primary effusion lymphoma and multicentric Castleman disease. In regions with high HHV-8 seroprevalence in the general population, KS accounts for a major burden of disease. Outside these endemic regions, HHV-8 prevalence is high in men who have sex with men (MSM) and in migrants from endemic regions. We aim to conduct a systematic literature review and meta-analysis in order 1) to define the global distribution of HHV-8 seroprevalence (primary objective) and 2) to identify risk factors for HHV-8 infection, with a focus on HIV status (secondary objective). METHODS/DESIGN We will include observational studies reporting data on seroprevalence of HHV-8 in children and/or adults from any region in the world. Case reports and case series as well as any studies with fewer than 50 participants will be excluded. We will search MEDLINE, EMBASE, and relevant conference proceedings without language restriction. Two reviewers will independently screen the identified studies and extract data on study characteristics and quality, study population, risk factors, and reported outcomes, using a standardized form. For the primary objective we will pool the data using a fully bayesian approach for meta-analysis, with random effects at the study level. For the secondary objective (association of HIV and HHV-8) we aim to pool odds ratios for the association of HIV and HHV-8 using a fully bayesian approach for meta-analysis, with random effects at the study level. Sub-group analyses and meta-regression analyses will be used to explore sources of heterogeneity, including factors such as geographical region, calendar years of recruitment, age, gender, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, different risk groups for sexually and parenterally transmitted infections (MSM, sex workers, hemophiliacs, intravenous drug users), comorbidities such as organ transplantation and malaria, test(s) used to measure HHV-8 infection, study design, and study quality. DISCUSSION Using the proposed systematic review and meta-analysis, we aim to better define the global seroprevalence of HHV-8 and its associated risk factors. This will improve the current understanding of HHV-8 epidemiology, and could suggest measures to prevent HHV-8 infection and to reduce its associated cancer burden.

Hepatitis B and C in Switzerland - healthcare provider initiated testing for chronic hepatitis B and C infection

Hepatitis B and hepatitis C are contagious liver diseases caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV) and the hepatitis C virus (HCV), respectively. In particular, chronic infection with HBV or HCV is a major public health problem throughout Europe. The majority of persons chronically infected (65%-75%) are not aware of their infection status until symptoms of advanced liver disease appear. In addition, the peak in the number of patients suffering from advanced stages of the disease, such as cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, has not yet been reached. In order to reduce the current and future morbidity and mortality associated with chronic HBV or HCV infection, the timely detection of chronically infected persons, with follow-up and case management, is crucial. However, the current screening strategies in Europe and Switzerland have to be considered as inadequate to detect the majority of chronically infected persons. Hence, we emphasise the importance of an alternative approach: the healthcare provider initiated identification of HBV or HCV infection in defined risk groups. This entails determining whether a person is not only at risk of being chronically infected, but also at risk of becoming infected with HBV or HCV and, if necessary, testing for HBV or HCV infection.

The IFNL3/4 ΔG variant increases susceptibility to cytomegalovirus retinitis among HIV-infected patients.

BACKGROUND Cytomegalovirus (CMV) retinitis is a major cause of visual impairment and blindness among patients with uncontrolled HIV infections. Whereas polymorphisms in interferon-lambda 3 (IFNL3, previously named IL28B) strongly influence the clinical course of hepatitis C, few studies examined the role of such polymorphisms in infections due to viruses other than hepatitis C virus. OBJECTIVES To analyze the association of newly identified IFNL3/4 variant rs368234815 with susceptibility to CMV-associated retinitis in a cohort of HIV-infected patients. DESIGN AND METHODS This retrospective longitudinal study included 4884 white patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, among whom 1134 were at risk to develop CMV retinitis (CD4 nadir <100 /μl and positive CMV serology). The association of CMV-associated retinitis with rs368234815 was assessed by cumulative incidence curves and multivariate Cox regression models, using the estimated date of HIV infection as a starting point, with censoring at death and/or lost follow-up. RESULTS A total of 40 individuals among 1134 patients at risk developed CMV retinitis. The minor allele of rs368234815 was associated with a higher risk of CMV retinitis (log-rank test P = 0.007, recessive mode of inheritance). The association was still significant in a multivariate Cox regression model (hazard ratio 2.31, 95% confidence interval 1.09-4.92, P = 0.03), after adjustment for CD4 nadir and slope, HAART and HIV-risk groups. CONCLUSION We reported for the first time an association between an IFNL3/4 polymorphism and susceptibility to AIDS-related CMV retinitis. IFNL3/4 may influence immunity against viruses other than HCV.

The views of European clinicians on guidelines for long-term follow-up of childhood cancer survivors.

BACKGROUND Evidence-based guidelines are needed to guide effective long-term follow-up (LTFU) of childhood cancer survivors (CCS) at risk of late adverse effects (LAEs). We aimed to ascertain the use of LTFU guidelines throughout Europe, and seek views on the need for pan-European LTFU guidelines. PROCEDURES One expert clinician from each of 44 European countries was invited to participate in an online survey. Information was sought regarding the use and content of LTFU guidelines in the respondent's centre and country, and their views about developing pan-European LTFU guidelines. RESULTS Thirty-one countries (70%) responded, including 24 of 26 full EU countries (92%). LTFU guidelines were implemented nationally in 17 countries (55%). All guidelines included recommendations about physical LAEs, specific risk groups and frequency of surveillance, and the majority about psychosocial LAEs (70%), and healthy lifestyle promotion (65%). A minority of guidelines described recommendations about transition to age-appropriate LTFU services (22%), where LTFU should be performed (22%) and by whom (30%). Most respondents (94%) agreed on the need for pan-European LTFU guidelines, specifically including recommendations about surveillance for specific physical LAEs (97%), action to be taken if a specific LAE is detected (90%), minimum requirements for LTFU (93%), transition and health promotion (both 87%). CONCLUSIONS Guidelines are not universally used throughout Europe. However, there is strong support for developing pan-European LTFU guidelines for CCS. PanCareSurFup (www.pancare.eu) will collaborate with partners to develop such guidelines, including recommendations for hitherto relatively neglected topics, such as minimum LTFU requirements, transition and health promotion.

Validation and reclassification of MGAP and GAP in hospital settings using data from the Trauma Audit and Research Network.

BACKGROUND Recently, two simple clinical scores were published to predict survival in trauma patients. Both scores may successfully guide major trauma triage, but neither has been independently validated in a hospital setting. METHODS This is a cohort study with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome to validate two new trauma scores-Mechanism, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Age, and Pressure (MGAP) score and GCS, Age and Pressure (GAP) score-using data from the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network. First, an assessment of discrimination, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration, comparing mortality rates with those originally published, were performed. Second, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios for prognostic score performance. Third, we propose new cutoffs for the risk categories. RESULTS A total of 79,807 adult (≥16 years) major trauma patients (2000-2010) were included; 5,474 (6.9%) died. Mean (SD) age was 51.5 (22.4) years, median GCS score was 15 (interquartile range, 15-15), and median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 9 (interquartile range, 9-16). More than 50% of the patients had a low-risk GAP or MGAP score (1% mortality). With regard to discrimination, areas under the ROC curve were 87.2% for GAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.7-87.7) and 86.8% for MGAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.2-87.3). With regard to calibration, 2,390 (3.3%), 1,900 (28.5%), and 1,184 (72.2%) patients died in the low, medium, and high GAP risk categories, respectively. In the low- and medium-risk groups, these were almost double the previously published rates. For MGAP, 1,861 (2.8%), 1,455 (15.2%), and 2,158 (58.6%) patients died in the low-, medium-, and high-risk categories, consonant with results originally published. Reclassifying score point cutoffs improved likelihood ratios, sensitivity and specificity, as well as areas under the ROC curve. CONCLUSION We found both scores to be valid triage tools to stratify emergency department patients, according to their risk of death. MGAP calibrated better, but GAP slightly improved discrimination. The newly proposed cutoffs better differentiate risk classification and may therefore facilitate hospital resource allocation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic study, level II.