Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis

The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.

First order thermal phase transition with 126 GeV Higgs mass

We study the strength of the electroweak phase transition in models with two light Higgs doublets and a light SU(3)c triplet by means of lattice simulations in a dimensionally reduced effective theory. In the parameter region considered the transition on the lattice is significantly stronger than indicated by a 2-loop perturbative analysis. Within some ultraviolet uncertainties, the finding applies to MSSM with a Higgs mass mh ≈ 126 GeV and shows that the parameter region useful for electroweak baryogenesis is enlarged. In particular (even though only dedicated analyses can quantify the issue), the tension between LHC constraints after the 7 TeV and 8 TeV runs and frameworks where the electroweak phase transition is driven by light stops, seems to be relaxed.

GSR deposition along the bullet path in contact shots to composite models

In contact shots, all the materials emerging from the muzzle (combustion gases, soot, powder grains, and metals from the primer) will be driven into the depth of the entrance wound and the following sections of the bullet track. The so-called "pocket" ("powder cavity") under the skin containing soot and gunpowder particles is regarded as a significant indicator of a contact entrance wound since one would expect that the quantity of GSR deposited along the bullet's path rapidly declines towards the exit hole. Nevertheless, experience has shown that soot, powder particles, and carboxyhemoglobin may be found not only in the initial part of the wound channel, but also far away from the entrance and even at the exit. In order to investigate the propagation of GSRs under standardized conditions, contact test shots were fired against composite models of pig skin and 25-cm-long gelatin blocks using 9-mm Luger pistol cartridges with two different primers (Sinoxid® and Sintox®). Subsequently, 1-cm-thick layers of the gelatin blocks were examined as to their primer element contents (lead, barium, and antimony as discharge residues of Sinoxid® as well as zinc and titanium from Sintox®) by means of X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy. As expected, the highest element concentrations were found in the initial parts of the bullet tracks, but also the distal sections contained detectable amounts of the respective primer elements. The same was true for amorphous soot and unburned/partly burned powder particles, which could be demonstrated even at the exit site. With the help of a high-speed motion camera it was shown that for a short time the temporary cavitation extends from the entrance to the exit thus facilitating the unlimited spread of discharge residues along the whole bullet path.

Comparison of immortalized bEnd5 and primary mouse brain microvascular endothelial cells as in vitro blood-brain barrier models for the study of T cell extravasation

Important insights into the molecular mechanism of T cell extravasation across the blood-brain barrier (BBB) have already been obtained using immortalized mouse brain endothelioma cell lines (bEnd). However, compared with bEnd, primary brain endothelial cells have been shown to establish better barrier characteristics, including complex tight junctions and low permeability. In this study, we asked whether bEnd5 and primary mouse brain microvascular endothelial cells (pMBMECs) were equally suited as in vitro models with which to study the cellular and molecular mechanisms of T cell extravasation across the BBB. We found that both in vitro BBB models equally supported both T cell adhesion under static and physiologic flow conditions, and T cell crawling on the endothelial surface against the direction of flow. In contrast, distances of T cell crawling on pMBMECs were strikingly longer than on bEnd5, whereas diapedesis of T cells across pMBMECs was dramatically reduced compared with bEnd5. Thus, both in vitro BBB models are suited to study T cell adhesion. However, because pMBMECs better reflect endothelial BBB specialization in vivo, we propose that more reliable information about the cellular and molecular mechanisms of T cell diapedesis across the BBB can be attained using pMBMECs.

Transmission of Chlamydia trachomatis through sexual partnerships: a comparison between three individual-based models and empirical data

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) in many developed countries. The highest prevalence rates are found among young adults who have frequent partner change rates. Three published individual-based models have incorporated a detailed description of age-specific sexual behaviour in order to quantify the transmission of C. trachomatis in the population and to assess the impact of screening interventions. Owing to varying assumptions about sexual partnership formation and dissolution and the great uncertainty about critical parameters, such models show conflicting results about the impact of preventive interventions. Here, we perform a detailed evaluation of these models by comparing the partnership formation and dissolution dynamics with data from Natsal 2000, a population-based probability sample survey of sexual attitudes and lifestyles in Britain. The data also allow us to describe the dispersion of C. trachomatis infections as a function of sexual behaviour, using the Gini coefficient. We suggest that the Gini coefficient is a useful measure for calibrating infectious disease models that include risk structure and highlight the need to estimate this measure for other STIs.

Metabolomics reveals attenuation of the SLC6A20 kidney transporter in nonhuman primate and mouse models of type 2 diabetes mellitus

To enhance understanding of the metabolic indicators of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) disease pathogenesis and progression, the urinary metabolomes of well characterized rhesus macaques (normal or spontaneously and naturally diabetic) were examined. High-resolution ultra-performance liquid chromatography coupled with the accurate mass determination of time-of-flight mass spectrometry was used to analyze spot urine samples from normal (n = 10) and T2DM (n = 11) male monkeys. The machine-learning algorithm random forests classified urine samples as either from normal or T2DM monkeys. The metabolites important for developing the classifier were further examined for their biological significance. Random forests models had a misclassification error of less than 5%. Metabolites were identified based on accurate masses (<10 ppm) and confirmed by tandem mass spectrometry of authentic compounds. Urinary compounds significantly increased (p < 0.05) in the T2DM when compared with the normal group included glycine betaine (9-fold), citric acid (2.8-fold), kynurenic acid (1.8-fold), glucose (68-fold), and pipecolic acid (6.5-fold). When compared with the conventional definition of T2DM, the metabolites were also useful in defining the T2DM condition, and the urinary elevations in glycine betaine and pipecolic acid (as well as proline) indicated defective re-absorption in the kidney proximal tubules by SLC6A20, a Na(+)-dependent transporter. The mRNA levels of SLC6A20 were significantly reduced in the kidneys of monkeys with T2DM. These observations were validated in the db/db mouse model of T2DM. This study provides convincing evidence of the power of metabolomics for identifying functional changes at many levels in the omics pipeline.

Sensitivity of pelagic calcification to ocean acidification

Ocean acidification might reduce the ability of calcifying plankton to produce and maintain their shells of calcite, or of aragonite, the more soluble form of CaCO3. In addition to possibly large biological impacts, reduced CaCO3 production corresponds to a negative feedback on atmospheric CO2. In order to explore the sensitivity of the ocean carbon cycle to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2, we use the new biogeochemical Bern3D/PISCES model. The model reproduces the large scale distributions of biogeochemical tracers. With a range of sensitivity studies, we explore the effect of (i) using different parameterizations of CaCO3 production fitted to available laboratory and field experiments, of (ii) letting calcite and aragonite be produced by auto- and heterotrophic plankton groups, and of (iii) using carbon emissions from the range of the most recent IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Under a high-emission scenario, the CaCO3 production of all the model versions decreases from ~1 Pg C yr−1 to between 0.36 and 0.82 Pg C yr−1 by the year 2100. The changes in CaCO3 production and dissolution resulting from ocean acidification provide only a small feedback on atmospheric CO2 of −1 to −11 ppm by the year 2100, despite the wide range of parameterizations, model versions and scenarios included in our study. A potential upper limit of the CO2-calcification/dissolution feedback of −30 ppm by the year 2100 is computed by setting calcification to zero after 2000 in a high 21st century emission scenario. The similarity of feedback estimates yielded by the model version with calcite produced by nanophytoplankton and the one with calcite, respectively aragonite produced by mesozooplankton suggests that expending biogeochemical models to calcifying zooplankton might not be needed to simulate biogeochemical impacts on the marine carbonate cycle. The changes in saturation state confirm previous studies indicating that future anthropogenic CO2 emissions may lead to irreversible changes in ΩA for several centuries. Furthermore, due to the long-term changes in the deep ocean, the ratio of open water CaCO3 dissolution to production stabilizes by the year 2500 at a value that is 30–50% higher than at pre-industrial times when carbon emissions are set to zero after 2100.

Photographs of dental casts or digital models: rating dental arch relationships in bilateral cleft lip and palate

Yardsticks have been developed to measure dental arch relations in cleft lip and palate (CLP) patients as diagnostic proxies for the underlying skeletal relationship. Travelling with plaster casts to compare results between CLP centres is inefficient so the aim of this study was to investigate the reliability of using digital models or photographs of dental casts instead of plaster casts for rating dental arch relationships in children with complete bilateral cleft lip and palate (CBCLP). Dental casts of children with CBCLP (n=20) were included. Plaster casts, digital models and photographs of the plaster casts were available for all the children at 6, 9, and 12 years of age. All three record formats were scored using the bilateral cleft lip and palate (BCLP) yardstick by four observers in random order. No significant differences were found for the BCLP yardstick scores among the three formats. The interobserver weighted kappa scores were between 0.672 and 0.934. Comparison between the formats per observer resulted in weighted kappa scores between 0.692 and 0.885. It is concluded that digital models and photographs of dental casts can be used for rating dental arch relationships in patients with CBCLP. These formats are a reliable alternative for BCLP yardstick assessments on conventional plaster casts.

Correlation between topographic N400 anomalies and reduced cerebral blood flow in the anterior temporal lobes of patients with dementia

In Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients, episodic memory impairments are apparent, yet semantic memory difficulties are also observed. While the episodic pathology has been thoroughly studied, the neurophysiological mechanisms of the semantic impairments remain obscure. Semantic dementia (SD) is characterized by isolated semantic memory deficits. The present study aimed to find an early marker of mild AD and SD by employing a semantic priming paradigm during electroencephalogram recordings. Event-related potentials (ERP) of early (P1, N1) and late (N400) word processing stages were obtained to measure semantic memory functions. Separately, baseline cerebral blood flow (CBF) was acquired with arterial spin labeling. Thus, the analysis focused on linear regressions of CBF with ERP topographical similarity indices in order to find the brain structures that showed altered baseline functionality associated with deviant ERPs. All participant groups showed semantic priming in their reaction times. Furthermore, decreased CBF in the temporal lobes was associated with abnormal N400 topography. No significant CBF clusters were found for the early ERPs. Taken together, the neurophysiological results suggested that the automatic spread of activation during semantic word processing was preserved in mild dementia, while controlled access to the words was impaired. These findings suggested that N400-topography alterations might be a potential marker for the detection of early dementia. Such a marker could be beneficial for differential diagnosis due to its low cost and non-invasive application as well as its relationship with semantic memory dysfunctions that are closely associated to the cortical deterioration in regions crucial for semantic word processing.

Quantification of atelectatic lung volumes in two different porcine models of ARDS

BACKGROUND: Cyclic recruitment during mechanical ventilation contributes to ventilator associated lung injury. Two different pathomechanisms in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) are currently discussed: alveolar collapse vs persistent flooding of small airways and alveoli. We compare two different ARDS animal models by computed tomography (CT) to describe different recruitment and derecruitment mechanisms at different airway pressures: (i) lavage-ARDS, favouring alveolar collapse by surfactant depletion; and (ii) oleic acid ARDS, favouring alveolar flooding by capillary leakage. METHODS: In 12 pigs [25 (1) kg], ARDS was randomly induced, either by saline lung lavage or oleic acid (OA) injection, and 3 animals served as controls. A respiratory breathhold manoeuvre without spontaneous breathing at different continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) was applied in random order (CPAP levels of 5, 10, 15, 30, 35 and 50 cm H(2)O) and spiral-CT scans of the total lung were acquired at each CPAP level (slice thickness=1 mm). In each spiral-CT the volume of total lung parenchyma, tissue, gas, non-aerated, well-aerated, poorly aerated, and over-aerated lung was calculated. RESULTS: In both ARDS models non-aerated lung volume decreased significantly from CPAP 5 to CPAP 50 [oleic acid lung injury (OAI): 346.9 (80.1) to 96.4 (48.8) ml, P<0.001; lavage-ARDS: 245 17.6) to 42.7 (4.8) ml, P<0.001]. In lavage-ARDS poorly aerated lung volume decreased at higher CPAP levels [232 (45.2) at CPAP 10 to 84 (19.4) ml at CPAP 50, P<0.001] whereas in OAI poorly aerated lung volume did not vary at different airway pressures. CONCLUSIONS: In both ARDS models well-aerated and non-aerated lung volume respond to different CPAP levels in a comparable fashion: Thus, a cyclical alveolar collapse seems to be part of the derecruitment process also in the OA-ARDS. In OA-ARDS, the increase in poorly aerated lung volume reflects the specific initial lesion, that is capillary leakage with interstitial and alveolar oedema.

Impact of variation in acute virulence of BVDV1 strains on design of better vaccine efficacy challenge models

Due to antigenic differences between BVDV1 and BVDV2 strains, both pestivirus species are included in U.S. vaccines. The efficacy of these vaccines in preventing acute infections is evaluated based on reduction of clinical disease. While high virulence BVDV2 strains are used in U.S. vaccine efficacy studies, the BVDV1 strain used (NY-1) produces very little in the way of clinical disease. In order to identify a BVDV1 strain that generates a more pronounced clinical presentation, three field strains were compared to NY-1. Infection with two of the field strains resulted in significantly more pronounced clinical disease compared to NY-1. Decreasing the inoculation of a field strain by two logs did not significantly change clinical presentation.

Clutch-size adjustments and skew models: effects on reproductive partitioning and group stability

Reproductive skew theory seeks to integrate social and ecological factors thought to influence the division of reproduction among group-living animals. However, most reproductive skew models only examine interactions between individuals of the same sex. Here, we suggest that females can influence group stability and conflict among males by modifying their clutch size and may do so if they benefit from the presence of subordinate male helpers or from reduced conflict. We develop 3 models, based on concessions-based, restraint, and tug-of-war models, in which female clutch size is variable and ask when females will increase their clutch size above that which would be optimal in the absence of male-male conflict. In concessions-based and restraint models, females should increase clutch size above their optima if the benefits of staying for subordinate males are relatively low. Relatedness between males has no effect on clutch size. When females do increase clutch size, the division of reproduction between males is not influenced by relatedness and does not differ between restraint and concessions-based models. Both of these predictions are in sharp contrast to previous models. In tug-of-war models, clutch size is strongly influenced by relatedness between males, with the largest clutches, but the fewest surviving offspring, produced when males are unrelated. These 3 models demonstrate the importance of considering third-party interests in the decisions of group-living organisms.