Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

Temporal genetic structure and relatedness in the Tufted Duck Aythya fuligula suggests limited kin association in winter

Conspecific aggregation of waterfowl in winter is a common example of animal flocking behaviour, yet patterns of relatedness and temporal substructure in such social groups remain poorly understood even in common species. A previous study based on mark-recapture data showed that Tufted Ducks Aythya fuligula caught on the same day were re-caught together in subsequent winters more often than expected by chance, suggesting stable assortments of ‘socially familiar’ individuals between wintering periods. The genetic relationships within these social groups were not clear. Based on 191 individuals genotyped at 10 microsatellite markers, we investigated the temporal genetic structure and patterns of relatedness among wintering Tufted Ducks at Lake Sempach, Switzerland, in two consecutive winters. We found no evidence of genetic differentiation between temporal groups within or between winters. The average levels of relatedness in temporal groups were low and not higher than expected in random assortments of individuals. However, Mantel tests performed for each sex separately revealed significant negative correlations between the pairwise relatedness coefficients and the number of days between the capture dates of pairs of wintering Tufted Duck in males and females. This pattern suggests the presence of a small number of co-migrating same-sex sibling pairs in wintering flocks of Tufted Ducks. Our findings provide one of the first genetic analyses of a common duck species outside the breeding season and contribute to the understanding of social interactions in long-distance migratory birds.

Sex identification and PIT-tagging: tools and prospects for studying intersexual differences in freshwater fishes

This study evaluated a technique to allow the long-term monitoring of individual fishes of known sex in the wild using sex confirmation in close proximity to the reproductive period combined with individual tagging. Hundreds of partially migratory roach Rutilus rutilus were tagged with passive integrated transponders (PIT) following sex determination in spring and various performance measures were compared with fish tagged outside the reproductive period in autumn. Short-term survival was > 95% for R. rutilus sexed and tagged under natural field conditions. Total length (LT) did not affect the probability of survival within the size range tagged (119–280mm), nor were there differences in timing of migration the following season between individuals sexed and tagged in spring and individuals tagged in autumn (i.e. outside the reproductive period). Also, a similar per cent of R. rutilus sexed and tagged in spring and tagged in autumn migrated the following season (34·5 and 34·7%). Moreover, long-term recapture data revealed no significant differences in body condition between R. rutilus individuals sexed and tagged in spring, individuals tagged in autumn and unmanipulated individuals. The observed sex ratio of recaptured fish did not differ from the expected values of equal recapture rates between males and females. Hence, there is no observable evidence for an adverse effect of tagging close to the reproductive period and therefore this method is suitable for studying intersexual differences and other phenotypic traits temporarily expressed during reproduction at the individual level in fishes.